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James M Hyman

Publications and source records attributed to James M Hyman.

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Examining the impact of forcing function inputs on structural identifiability

For mathematical and experimental ease, models with time varying parameters are often simplified to assume constant parameters. However, this simplification can potentially lead to identifiability issues (lack of uniqueness of parameter estimates). Methods have been developed to algebraically and numerically determine the identifiability of a model, as well as resolve identifiability issues. This specific type of simplification presents an alternate opportunity to instead use this information to resolve the unidentifiability. Given that re-parameterizing, collecting more data, and adding inputs can be potentially costly or impractical, this could present new alternatives. We present a method for resolving unidentifiability in a system by introducing a new data stream correlated with a parameter of interest. First, we demonstrate how and when non-constant input data can be introduced into any rational function ODE system without worsening the model identifiability. Then, we prove when these input functions improve structural and potentially also practical identifiability for a given model and relevant data. By utilizing pre-existing data streams, these methods can potentially reduce experimental costs, while still answering key questions. By connecting mathematical proofs to application, our framework removes guesswork from when, where, and how researchers can best introduce new data to improve model outcomes.

q-bio.QM

Modelling the Impact of Screening Men for Chlamydia Trachomatis on the Prevalence in Women

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most commonly reported infectious disease in the United States and causes important reproductive morbidity in women. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have recommended routine screening of sexually active women under age 25 but have not recommended screening among men. Consequently, untested and untreated men may serve as a reservoir of infection in women. Despite three decades of screening women, the chlamydia prevalence has continued to increase. Moreover, chlamydia is five times more common in African American (AA) youth compared to Whites, constituting an important health disparity. The Check It program is a bundled Ct intervention targeting AA men aged 15-24 who have sex with women. We created an individual-based network model to simulate a realistic chlamydia epidemic on sexual contact networks for the target population. Based on the practice in Check It, we quantified the impact of screening young AA men on the chlamydia prevalence in women. We used sensitivity analysis to quantify the relative importance of each Check It intervention component, and the significance ranked from high to low was venue-based screening, expedited index treatment, expedited partner treatment, rescreening. We estimated that by annually screening 7.5% of the target male population, the chlamydia prevalence would be reduced by 8.1% and 8.8% in men and women, respectively. The findings suggested that male-screening has the potential to significantly reduce the prevalence among women.

q-bio.PE

A Data-Driven Network Model for the Emerging COVID-19 Epidemics in Wuhan, Toronto and Italy

The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modelling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this pandemic. We develop a network model, where each node represents an individual and the edges represent contacts between individuals where the infection can spread. The individuals are classified based on the number of contacts they have each day (their node degrees) and their infection status. The transmission network model was respectively fitted to the reported data for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan (China), Toronto (Canada), and the Italian Republic using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm. Our model fits all three regions well with narrow confidence intervals and could be adapted to simulate other megacities or regions. The model projections on the role of containment strategies can help inform public health authorities to plan control measures.

q-bio.PE