arXiv subjects

James Pope

Publications and source records attributed to James Pope.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Which Site, and When: A Free-Satellite-Data Test of Himalayan Glacial Lake Bursts, Landslides, and Ice Floods

Two free satellite signals carry real information about glacial-lake outburst risk in the Nepal Himalaya: radar interferometry sees a moraine dam slowly sagging, and satellite weather marks the weeks when a primed lake is under stress. A companion feasibility study found that deformation indicates which lake is destabilizing and weather indicates when it is at risk, but proposed no predictive model. To address this gap, we propose and evaluate models that predict which site is susceptible and when a trigger arrives. We test three related hazards on free data alone: large moraine- and ice-dammed bursts, rainfall-triggered landslides, and smaller floods from ponds on and around a glacier. Each hazard gets two questions, never blended. Using 589 dated outbursts from HMAGLOFDB and several thousand catalogued landslides, we match each event against similar but unfailed sites, and hold every model to a strong simple baseline under spatial cross-validation that withholds whole map tiles, so no model succeeds by recognising a trained-on neighbourhood. Antecedent weather times the trigger at ROC 0.73 for big bursts, 0.83 for landslides, and 0.82 for small floods. Terrain ranks susceptibility only in part: scored naively it appears near 0.9, largely because catalogued failures cluster in wetter ranges; matched against comparable nearby sites the honest figures are 0.76, 0.71, and 0.54 (no better than chance). The burst signal holds within single regions, reaching 0.89 in Nepal alone. Five deep-learning models do not decisively beat a simple gradient-boosted baseline. Three score marginally higher on landslides, a hint too small to confirm. For the lake hazards the baseline wins outright, reproduced by a three-rule decision tree on ruggedness and monsoon rainfall. We close with a ranked Nepal watchlist, a prioritisation aid, not a prediction, and note where free data reaches its limits.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

APIOT: Autonomous Vulnerability Management Across Bare-Metal Industrial OT Networks

Bare-metal operational technology (OT) devices -- especially the microcontrollers running Modbus/TCP and CoAP at the base of industrial control systems -- have remained outside the reach of autonomous security attacks. Prior autonomous pentesting studies target Linux and web systems, whose shells and filesystems are familiar to LLM agents. Bare-metal OT has neither, so agents must reason directly over protocol fields and parser semantics. This requires new action-space designs and runtime controls, and opens new research questions about protocol-level exploit reasoning and its deployment envelope. We present APIOT (Autonomous Purple-teaming for Industrial OT), the first large language model (LLM) framework demonstrating an autonomous attack and remediation of bare-metal OT devices, achieving the full discovery -> exploitation -> patching -> verification cycle without step-by-step human intervention. We implemented and evaluated this framework on Zephyr RTOS firmware across heterogeneous industrial IoT (IIoT) topologies. Through 290 experiment runs spanning five frontier LLMs, three network topologies, two impairment levels, and guided versus unguided conditions, APIOT achieved a mission success rate of 90.0% on the full attack-remediation cycle. We found that the runtime governance layer (which we call an overseer) is a critical engineering variable: without it, agents exhibit systematic degenerate patterns, including repetition loops, missing crash verification, and reconnaissance deadlocks. Together, these findings carry two implications beyond our testbed. Attacker expertise is no longer the binding constraint on bare-metal OT exploitation, and defender threat models must now assume LLM-augmented adversaries capable of executing autonomous discovery-through-remediation cycles against industrial firmware.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

Skin Cancer Machine Learning Model Tone Bias

Background: Many open-source skin cancer image datasets are the result of clinical trials conducted in countries with lighter skin tones. Due to this tone imbalance, machine learning models derived from these datasets can perform well at detecting skin cancer for lighter skin tones. Any tone bias in these models could introduce fairness concerns and reduce public trust in the artificial intelligence health field. Methods: We examine a subset of images from the International Skin Imaging Collaboration (ISIC) archive that provide tone information. The subset has a significant tone imbalance. These imbalances could explain a model's tone bias. To address this, we train models using the imbalanced dataset and a balanced dataset to compare against. The datasets are used to train a deep convolutional neural network model to classify the images as malignant or benign. We then evaluate the models' disparate impact, based on selection rate, relative to dark or light skin tone. Results: Using the imbalanced dataset, we found that the model is significantly better at detecting malignant images in lighter tone resulting in a disparate impact of 0.577. Using the balanced dataset, we found that the model is also significantly better at detecting malignant images in lighter versus darker tones with a disparate impact of 0.684. Using the imbalanced or balanced dataset to train the model still results in a disparate impact well below the standard threshold of 0.80 which suggests the model is biased with respect to skin tone. Conclusion: The results show that typical skin cancer machine learning models can be tone biased. These results provide evidence that diagnosis or tone imbalance is not the cause of the bias. Other techniques will be necessary to identify and address the bias in these models, an area of future investigation.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2023

Challenges in the Design and Implementation of IoT Testbeds in Smart-Cities: A Systematic Review

Advancements in wireless communication and the increased accessibility to low-cost sensing and data processing IoT technologies have increased the research and development of urban monitoring systems. Most smart city research projects rely on deploying proprietary IoT testbeds for indoor and outdoor data collection. Such testbeds typically rely on a three-tier architecture composed of the Endpoint, the Edge, and the Cloud. Managing the system's operation whilst considering the security and privacy challenges that emerge, such as data privacy controls, network security, and security updates on the devices, is challenging. This work presents a systematic study of the challenges of developing, deploying and managing urban monitoring testbeds, as experienced in a series of urban monitoring research projects, followed by an analysis of the relevant literature. By identifying the challenges in the various projects and organising them under the V-model development lifecycle levels, we provide a reference guide for future projects. Understanding the challenges early on will facilitate current and future smart-cities IoT research projects to reduce implementation time and deliver secure and resilient testbeds.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2022

Content Rating Classification for Fan Fiction

Content ratings can enable audiences to determine the suitability of various media products. With the recent advent of fan fiction, the critical issue of fan fiction content ratings has emerged. Whether fan fiction content ratings are done voluntarily or required by regulation, there is the need to automate the content rating classification. The problem is to take fan fiction text and determine the appropriate content rating. Methods for other domains, such as online books, have been attempted though none have been applied to fan fiction. We propose natural language processing techniques, including traditional and deep learning methods, to automatically determine the content rating. We show that these methods produce poor accuracy results for multi-classification. We then demonstrate that treating the problem as a binary classification problem produces better accuracy. Finally, we believe and provide some evidence that the current approach of self-annotating has led to incorrect labels limiting classification results.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

Resource-Interaction Graph: Efficient Graph Representation for Anomaly Detection

Security research has concentrated on converting operating system audit logs into suitable graphs, such as provenance graphs, for analysis. However, provenance graphs can grow very large requiring significant computational resources beyond what is necessary for many security tasks and are not feasible for resource constrained environments, such as edge devices. To address this problem, we present the \textit{resource-interaction graph} that is built directly from the audit log. We show that the resource-interaction graph's storage requirements are significantly lower than provenance graphs using an open-source data set with two container escape attacks captured from an edge device. We use a graph autoencoder and graph clustering technique to evaluate the representation for an anomaly detection task. Both approaches are unsupervised and are thus suitable for detecting zero-day attacks. The approaches can achieve f1 scores typically over 80\% and in some cases over 90\% for the selected data set and attacks.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2022

LE3D: A Lightweight Ensemble Framework of Data Drift Detectors for Resource-Constrained Devices

Data integrity becomes paramount as the number of Internet of Things (IoT) sensor deployments increases. Sensor data can be altered by benign causes or malicious actions. Mechanisms that detect drifts and irregularities can prevent disruptions and data bias in the state of an IoT application. This paper presents LE3D, an ensemble framework of data drift estimators capable of detecting abnormal sensor behaviours. Working collaboratively with surrounding IoT devices, the type of drift (natural/abnormal) can also be identified and reported to the end-user. The proposed framework is a lightweight and unsupervised implementation able to run on resource-constrained IoT devices. Our framework is also generalisable, adapting to new sensor streams and environments with minimal online reconfiguration. We compare our method against state-of-the-art ensemble data drift detection frameworks, evaluating both the real-world detection accuracy as well as the resource utilisation of the implementation. Experimenting with real-world data and emulated drifts, we show the effectiveness of our method, which achieves up to 97% of detection accuracy while requiring minimal resources to run.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Online Heart Rate Prediction using Acceleration from a Wrist Worn Wearable

In this paper we study the prediction of heart rate from acceleration using a wrist worn wearable. Although existing photoplethysmography (PPG) heart rate sensors provide reliable measurements, they use considerably more energy than accelerometers and have a major impact on battery life of wearable devices. By using energy-efficient accelerometers to predict heart rate, significant energy savings can be made. Further, we are interested in understanding patient recovery after a heart rate intervention, where we expect a variation in heart rate over time. Therefore, we propose an online approach to tackle the concept as time passes. We evaluate the methods on approximately 4 weeks of free living data from three patients over a number of months. We show that our approach can achieve good predictive performance (e.g., 2.89 Mean Absolute Error) while using the PPG heart rate sensor infrequently (e.g., 20.25% of the samples).

stat.AP↗