arXiv subjects

James Unwin

Publications and source records attributed to James Unwin.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

COVID-19 Forecasts via Stock Market Indicators

Reliable short term forecasting can provide potentially lifesaving insights into logistical planning, and in particular, into the optimal allocation of resources such as hospital staff and equipment. By reinterpreting COVID-19 daily cases in terms of candlesticks, we are able to apply some of the most popular stock market technical indicators to obtain predictive power over the course of the pandemics. By providing a quantitative assessment of MACD, RSI, and candlestick analyses, we show their statistical significance in making predictions for both stock market data and WHO COVID-19 data. In particular, we show the utility of this novel approach by considering the identification of the beginnings of subsequent waves of the pandemic. Finally, our new methods are used to assess whether current health policies are impacting the growth in new COVID-19 cases.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Electroweak Symmetry Non-Restoration from Dark Matter

Restoration of the electroweak symmetry at temperatures around the Higgs mass is linked to tight phenomenological constraints on many baryogenesis scenarios. A potential remedy can be found in mechanisms of electroweak symmetry non-restoration (SNR), in which symmetry breaking is extended to higher temperatures due to new states with couplings to the Standard Model. Here we show that, in the presence of a second Higgs doublet, SNR can be realized with only a handful of new fermions which can be identified as viable dark matter candidates consistent with all current observational constraints. The competing requirements on this class of models allow for SNR at temperatures up to $\sim$TeV, and imply the presence of sub-TeV new physics with sizable interactions with the Standard Model. As a result this scenario is highly testable with signals in reach of next-generation collider and dark matter direct detection experiments.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2021

Decoupling of Asymmetric Dark Matter During an Early Matter Dominated Era

In models of Asymmetric Dark Matter (ADM) the relic density is set by a particle asymmetry in an analogous manner to the baryons. Here we explore the scenario in which ADM decouples from the Standard Model thermal bath during an early period of matter domination. We first present a model independent analysis for a generic ADM candidate with s-wave annihilation cross section with fairly general assumptions regarding the origin of the early matter dominated period. We contrast our results to those from conventional ADM models which assume radiation domination during decoupling. Subsequently, we examine an explicit example of this scenario in the context of an elegant SO(10) implementation of ADM in which the matter dominated era is due to a long lived heavy right-handed neutrino. In the concluding remarks we discuss the prospects for superheavy ADM in this setting.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2021

The First Three Seconds: a Review of Possible Expansion Histories of the Early Universe

It is commonly assumed that the energy density of the Universe was dominated by radiation between reheating after inflation and the onset of matter domination 54,000 years later. While the abundance of light elements indicates that the Universe was radiation dominated during Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), there is scant evidence that the Universe was radiation dominated prior to BBN. It is therefore possible that the cosmological history was more complicated, with deviations from the standard radiation domination during the earliest epochs. Indeed, several interesting proposals regarding various topics such as the generation of dark matter, matter-antimatter asymmetry, gravitational waves, primordial black holes, or microhalos during a nonstandard expansion phase have been recently made. In this paper, we review various possible causes and consequences of deviations from radiation domination in the early Universe - taking place either before or after BBN - and the constraints on them, as they have been discussed in the literature during the recent years.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Racial Impact on Infections and Deaths due to COVID-19 in New York City

Redlining is the discriminatory practice whereby institutions avoided investment in certain neighborhoods due to their demographics. Here we explore the lasting impacts of redlining on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC). Using data available through the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, we construct a redlining index for each NYC census tract via a multi-level logistical model. We compare this redlining index with the COVID-19 statistics for each NYC Zip Code Tabulation Area. Accurate mappings of the pandemic would aid the identification of the most vulnerable areas and permit the most effective allocation of medical resources, while reducing ethnic health disparities.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

All-Pay Auctions as Models for Trade Wars and Military Annexation

We explore an application of all-pay auctions to model trade wars and territorial annexation. Specifically, in the model we consider the expected resource, production, and aggressive (military/tariff) power are public information, but actual resource levels are private knowledge. We consider the resource transfer at the end of such a competition which deprives the weaker country of some fraction of its original resources. In particular, we derive the quasi-equilibria strategies for two country conflicts under different scenarios. This work is relevant for the ongoing US-China trade war, and the recent Russian capture of Crimea, as well as historical and future conflicts.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2019

Reviving $Z$ and Higgs Mediated Dark Matter Models in Matter Dominated Freeze-out

It is quite conceivable that dark matter freeze-out occurred during an early period of matter domination, in which case the evolution and relic abundance differ from standard freeze-out calculations which assume a radiation dominated universe. Here we re-examine the classic models in which dark matter interactions with the Standard Model are mediated via either the Higgs or $Z$ boson in the context of matter dominated freeze-out. We highlight that while these classic models are largely excluded by searches in the radiation dominated case, matter dominated freeze-out can relax these limits and thus revive the Higgs and $Z$ portals. Additionally, we discuss the distinctions between matter dominated freeze-out and decoupling during the transition from matter domination to radiation domination, and we comment on the parameter regimes which lead to non-negligible dark matter production during this transition.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2019

What if Planet 9 is a Primordial Black Hole?

We highlight that the anomalous orbits of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) and an excess in microlensing events in the 5-year OGLE dataset can be simultaneously explained by a new population of astrophysical bodies with mass several times that of Earth ($M_\oplus$). We take these objects to be primordial black holes (PBHs) and point out the orbits of TNOs would be altered if one of these PBHs was captured by the Solar System, inline with the Planet 9 hypothesis. Capture of a free floating planet is a leading explanation for the origin of Planet 9 and we show that the probability of capturing a PBH instead is comparable. The observational constraints on a PBH in the outer Solar System significantly differ from the case of a new ninth planet. This scenario could be confirmed through annihilation signals from the dark matter microhalo around the PBH.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2019

Ultraviolet Freeze-in and Non-Standard Cosmologies

A notable feature of UV freeze-in is that the relic density is strongly dependent on the highest temperatures of the thermal bath, and a common assumption is that the relevant 'highest temperature' should be the reheating temperature after inflation $T_\text{RH}$. However, the temperature of the thermal bath can be significantly higher in certain scenarios, reaching a value denoted T max , a fact which is only apparent away from the instantaneous decay approximation. Interestingly, it has been shown that if the operators are of sufficiently high mass dimension then the dark matter abundance can be enhanced by a 'boost factor' depending on ($T_\text{max}/T_\text{RH}$) relative to naive estimates assuming instantaneous reheating. We highlight here that in non-standard cosmological histories the critical mass dimension of the operator above at which the instantaneous decay approximation breaks down, and the exponent of the boost factor, depend on the equation of state $ω$ prior to reheating. We highlight four examples in which the dark matter abundance receives a significant enhancement in the context of gravitino dark matter, the moduli portal, the Higgs portal, and the spin-2 portal (as might arise in bimetric gravity models). We comment on the transition from kination domination to radiation domination as a motivated example of non-standard cosmologies.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2019

Sonia Kovalevsky Days: The potential to inspire

The Association of Women in Mathematics has organized and sponsored Sonia Kovalevsky Days for Girls for almost three decades. These one day events are held at colleges and universities in the USA and consist of a program of workshops, talks, and problem solving sessions for female students aged 7-17. In this brief note we would like to give some advice on how to run these events successfully.

physics.ed-ph↗

arXiv2019

Establishing the Dark Matter Relic Density in an Era of Particle Decays

If the early universe is dominated by an energy density which evolves other than radiation-like the normal Hubble-temperature relation $H\propto T^2$ is broken and dark matter relic density calculations in this era can be significantly different. We first highlight that for a population of states $ϕ$ sourcing an initial expansion rate of the form $H\propto T^{2+n/2}$ for $n\geq-4$, during the period of appreciable $ϕ$ decays the evolution transitions to $H\propto T^4$. The decays of $ϕ$ imply a source of entropy production in the thermal bath which alters the Boltzmann equations and impacts the dark matter relic abundance. We show that the form of the initial expansion rate leaves a lasting imprint on relic densities established while $H\propto T^4$ since the value of the exponent $n$ changes the temperature evolution of the thermal bath. In particular, a dark matter relic density set via freeze-in or non-thermal production is highly sensitive to the temperature dependance of the initial expansion rate. This work generalises earlier studies which assumed initial expansion rates due to matter or kination domination.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2019

Markov Chain Models of Refugee Migration Data

The application of Markov chains to modelling refugee crises is explored, focusing on local migration of individuals at the level of cities and days. As an explicit example we apply the Markov chains migration model developed here to UNHCR data on the Burundi refugee crisis. We compare our method to a state-of-the-art `agent-based' model of Burundi refugee movements, and highlight that Markov chain approaches presented here can improve the match to data while simultaneously being more algorithmically efficient.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Lattice Studies of Gerrymandering Strategies

We propose three novel gerrymandering algorithms which incorporate the spatial distribution of voters with the aim of constructing gerrymandered, equal-population, connected districts. Moreover, we develop lattice models of voter distributions, based on analogies to electrostatic potentials, in order to compare different gerrymandering strategies. Due to the probabilistic population fluctuations inherent to our voter models, Monte Carlo methods can be applied to the districts constructed via our gerrymandering algorithms. Through Monte Carlo studies we quantify the effectiveness of each of our gerrymandering algorithms and we also argue that gerrymandering strategies which do not include spatial data lead to (legally prohibited) highly disconnected districts. Of the three algorithms we propose, two are based on different strategies for packing opposition voters, and the third is a new approach to algorithmic gerrymandering based on genetic algorithms, which automatically guarantees that all districts are connected. Furthermore, we use our lattice voter model to examine the effectiveness of isoperimetric quotient tests and our results provide further quantitative support for implementing compactness tests in real-world political redistricting.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

The Phone Walkers: A study of human dependence on inactive mobile devices

The development of mobile phones has largely increased human interactions. Whilst the use of these devices for communication has received significant attention, there has been little analysis of more passive interactions. Through census data on casual social groups, this work suggests a clear pattern of mobile phones being carried in people's hands, without the person using it (that is, not looking at it). Moreover, this study suggests that when individuals join members of the opposite sex there is a clear tendency to stop holding mobile phones whilst walking. Although it is not clear why people hold their phones whilst walking in such large proportions (38% of solitary women, and 31% of solitary men), we highlight several possible explanation for holding the device, including the need to advertise status and affluence, to maintain immediate connection with friends and family, and to mitigate feelings related to anxiety and security.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Protecting the Axion with Local Baryon Number

The Peccei-Quinn (PQ) solution to the Strong CP Problem is expected to fail unless the global symmetry U(1)${}_{\rm PQ}$ is protected from Planck-scale operators up to high mass dimension. Suitable protection can be achieved if the PQ symmetry is an automatic consequence of some gauge symmetry. We highlight that if baryon number is promoted to a gauge symmetry, the exotic fermions needed for anomaly cancellation can elegantly provide an implementation of the Kim-Shifman-Vainshtein-Zakharov 'hidden axion' mechanism with a PQ symmetry protected from Planck-scale physics.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2017

Dark Matter Freeze-out During Matter Domination

We highlight the general scenario of dark matter freeze-out whilst the energy density of the universe is dominated by a decoupled non-relativistic species. Decoupling during matter domination changes the freeze-out dynamics, since the Hubble rate is parametrically different for matter and radiation domination. Furthermore, for successful Big Bang Nucleosynthesis the state dominating the early universe energy density must decay, this dilutes (or repopulates) the dark matter. As a result, the masses and couplings required to reproduce the observed dark matter relic density can differ significantly from radiation dominated freeze-out.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2017

Symmetric and Asymmetric Reheating

We study models in which the inflaton is coupled to two otherwise decoupled sectors, and the effect of preheating and related processes on their energy densities during the evolution of the universe. Over most of parameter space, preheating is not disrupted by the presence of extra sectors, and even comparatively weakly coupled sectors can get an order 1 fraction of the total energy at this time. If two sectors are both preheated, the high number densities could also lead to inflaton mediated thermalisation. If only one sector is preheated, Bose enhancement of the late time inflaton decays may cause significant deviations from the perturbative prediction for their relative reheat temperatures. Meanwhile, in Non-Oscillatory inflation models resonant effects can result in exponentially large final temperature differences between sectors that have similar couplings to the inflaton. Asymmetric reheating is potentially relevant for a range of beyond the Standard Model physics scenarios. We show that in dark matter freeze-in models, hidden sector temperatures a factor of 10 below that of the visible sector are typically needed for the relic abundance to be set solely by freeze-in dynamics.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2017

Axial Vector $Z'$ and Anomaly Cancellation

Whilst the prospect of new $Z'$ gauge bosons with only axial couplings to the Standard Model (SM) fermions is widely discussed, examples of anomaly-free renormalisable models are lacking in the literature. We look to remedy this by constructing several motivated examples. Specifically, we consider axial vectors which couple universally to all SM fermions, as well as those which are generation-specific, leptophilic, and leptophobic. Anomaly cancellation typically requires the presence of new coloured and charged chiral fermions, and we argue that in a large class of models masses of these new states are expected to be comparable to that of the axial vector. Finally, an axial vector mediator could provide a portal between SM and hidden sector states, and we also consider the possibility that the axial vector couples to dark matter. If the dark matter relic density is set due to freeze-out via the axial vector, this strongly constrains the parameter space.

hep-ph↗