arXiv subjects

James Wisnowski

Publications and source records attributed to James Wisnowski.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

A Workflow for Lipid Nanoparticle (LNP) Formulation Optimization Using Designed Mixture-Process Experiments and Self-Validated Ensemble Models (SVEM)

We present a Quality by Design (QbD) styled approach for optimizing lipid nanoparticle (LNP) formulations, aiming to offer scientists an accessible workflow. The inherent restriction in these studies, where the molar ratios of ionizable, helper, and PEG lipids must add up to 100%, requires specialized design and analysis methods to accommodate this mixture constraint. Focusing on lipid and process factors that are commonly used in LNP design optimization, we provide steps that avoid many of the difficulties that traditionally arise in the design and analysis of mixture-process experiments by employing space-filling designs and utilizing the recently developed statistical framework of self-validated ensemble models (SVEM). In addition to producing candidate optimal formulations, the workflow also builds graphical summaries of the fitted statistical models that simplify the interpretation of the results. The newly identified candidate formulations are assessed with confirmation runs and optionally can be conducted in the context of a more comprehensive second-phase study.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Lessons Learned Applying Deep Learning Approaches to Forecasting Complex Seasonal Behavior

Deep learning methods have gained popularity in recent years through the media and the relative ease of implementation through open source packages such as Keras. We investigate the applicability of popular recurrent neural networks in forecasting call center volumes at a large financial services company. These series are highly complex with seasonal patterns - between hours of the day, day of the week, and time of the year - in addition to autocorrelation between individual observations. Though we investigate the financial services industry, the recommendations for modeling cyclical nonlinear behavior generalize across all sectors. We explore the optimization of parameter settings and convergence criteria for Elman (simple), Long Short-Term Memory (LTSM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) RNNs from a practical point of view. A designed experiment using actual call center data across many different "skills" (income call streams) compares performance measured by validation error rates of the best observed RNN configurations against other modern and classical forecasting techniques. We summarize the utility of and considerations required for using deep learning methods in forecasting.

stat.AP↗