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James Zhang

Publications and source records attributed to James Zhang.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Toward a Threat Actor Profiling Taxonomy for Pre-Release Risk Management of Open-Weight Frontier Models

Pre-release risk management for frontier AI misuse risks routinely leaves threat actor assumptions implicit, inconsistently specified, or ungrounded. This capstone argues that explicit adversary characterization should be regarded as a prerequisite for evaluations that are interpretable, comparable, and faithful to the risks they target. We propose a six-attribute taxonomy (covering technical sophistication, prior domain knowledge, organizational capacity, operational infrastructure, financial capacity, and time horizon) with empirically grounded tiers derived from existing terrorism, biosecurity, and cybersecurity literature. The taxonomy is designed to function as research infrastructure: a common language for pre-specifying adversary assumptions before evaluations are conducted, analogous to pre-analysis plans for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in medicine and economics. Its application is particularly urgent for open-weight model developers, for whom release decisions are irreversible and must anticipate adversarial reasoning.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2025

Emergency Response Measures for Catastrophic AI Risk

Chinese authorities are extending the country's four-phase emergency response framework (prevent, warn, respond, and recover) to address risks from advanced artificial intelligence (AI). Concrete mechanisms for the proactive prevention and warning phases, however, remain under development. This paper analyzes an implementation model inspired by international AI safety practices: frontier safety policies (FSPs). These policies feature pre-deployment evaluations for dangerous capabilities and tiered, pre-planned safety measures. We observe close alignment between FSPs and the proactive phases of China's emergency response framework, suggesting that the FSP model could help operationalize AI emergency preparedness in a manner consistent with China's established governance principles.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2024

Multimodal Deep Reinforcement Learning for Portfolio Optimization

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that leverages multimodal data including historical stock prices, sentiment analysis, and topic embeddings from news articles, to optimize trading strategies for SP100 stocks. Building upon recent advancements in financial reinforcement learning, we aim to enhance the state space representation by integrating financial sentiment data from SEC filings and news headlines and refining the reward function to better align with portfolio performance metrics. Our methodology includes deep reinforcement learning with state tensors comprising price data, sentiment scores, and news embeddings, processed through advanced feature extraction models like CNNs and RNNs. By benchmarking against traditional portfolio optimization techniques and advanced strategies, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in delivering superior portfolio performance. Empirical results showcase the potential of our agent to outperform standard benchmarks, especially when utilizing combined data sources under profit-based reward functions.

q-fin.PM↗
arXiv2024

Adaptive Learning on User Segmentation: Universal to Specific Representation via Bipartite Neural Interaction

Recently, models for user representation learning have been widely applied in click-through-rate (CTR) and conversion-rate (CVR) prediction. Usually, the model learns a universal user representation as the input for subsequent scenario-specific models. However, in numerous industrial applications (e.g., recommendation and marketing), the business always operates such applications as various online activities among different user segmentation. These segmentation are always created by domain experts. Due to the difference in user distribution (i.e., user segmentation) and business objectives in subsequent tasks, learning solely on universal representation may lead to detrimental effects on both model performance and robustness. In this paper, we propose a novel learning framework that can first learn general universal user representation through information bottleneck. Then, merge and learn a segmentation-specific or a task-specific representation through neural interaction. We design the interactive learning process by leveraging a bipartite graph architecture to model the representation learning and merging between contextual clusters and each user segmentation. Our proposed method is evaluated in two open-source benchmarks, two offline business datasets, and deployed on two online marketing applications to predict users' CVR. The results demonstrate that our method can achieve superior performance and surpass the baseline methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

GMP-AR: Granularity Message Passing and Adaptive Reconciliation for Temporal Hierarchy Forecasting

Time series forecasts of different temporal granularity are widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales prediction in days and weeks for making different inventory plans. However, these tasks are usually solved separately without ensuring coherence, which is crucial for aligning downstream decisions. Previous works mainly focus on ensuring coherence with some straightforward methods, e.g., aggregation from the forecasts of fine granularity to the coarse ones, and allocation from the coarse granularity to the fine ones. These methods merely take the temporal hierarchical structure to maintain coherence without improving the forecasting accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel granularity message-passing mechanism (GMP) that leverages temporal hierarchy information to improve forecasting performance and also utilizes an adaptive reconciliation (AR) strategy to maintain coherence without performance loss. Furthermore, we introduce an optimization module to achieve task-based targets while adhering to more real-world constraints. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework (GMP-AR) achieves superior performances on temporal hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods. In addition, our framework has been successfully applied to a real-world task of payment traffic management in Alipay by integrating with the task-based optimization module.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlook

Temporal data, including time series and spatio-temporal data, are pervasive in real-world applications. Generated in massive volumes by physical and virtual sensors, they record dynamic system behaviors and enable a wide range of downstream tasks. Effectively analyzing such data is crucial to unlocking their rich information content. Recent advances in large language models and other foundation models have accelerated their use in time series and spatio-temporal data mining. These approaches not only improve pattern recognition and reasoning across diverse domains but also support progress toward artificial general intelligence that can understand and process temporal data. In this survey, we present a comprehensive, up-to-date review of large models tailored or adapted for time series and spatio-temporal data along four dimensions: data types, model categories, model scopes, and application areas/tasks. We organize existing work into two main groups: large models for time series analysis (LM4TS) and for spatio-temporal data mining (LM4STD), and further distinguish general-purpose from domain-specific models. We also curate related resources, including datasets, model implementations, and tools, organized by major application areas. Overall, this survey consolidates recent advances and highlights foundations, applications, resources, and open research opportunities in large model-centric temporal data analysis.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Continuous Invariance Learning

Invariance learning methods aim to learn invariant features in the hope that they generalize under distributional shifts. Although many tasks are naturally characterized by continuous domains, current invariance learning techniques generally assume categorically indexed domains. For example, auto-scaling in cloud computing often needs a CPU utilization prediction model that generalizes across different times (e.g., time of a day and date of a year), where `time' is a continuous domain index. In this paper, we start by theoretically showing that existing invariance learning methods can fail for continuous domain problems. Specifically, the naive solution of splitting continuous domains into discrete ones ignores the underlying relationship among domains, and therefore potentially leads to suboptimal performance. To address this challenge, we then propose Continuous Invariance Learning (CIL), which extracts invariant features across continuously indexed domains. CIL is a novel adversarial procedure that measures and controls the conditional independence between the labels and continuous domain indices given the extracted features. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates the superiority of CIL over existing invariance learning methods. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets (including data collected from production systems) show that CIL consistently outperforms strong baselines among all the tasks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Deep Optimal Timing Strategies for Time Series

Deciding the best future execution time is a critical task in many business activities while evolving time series forecasting, and optimal timing strategy provides such a solution, which is driven by observed data. This solution has plenty of valuable applications to reduce the operation costs. In this paper, we propose a mechanism that combines a probabilistic time series forecasting task and an optimal timing decision task as a first systematic attempt to tackle these practical problems with both solid theoretical foundation and real-world flexibility. Specifically, it generates the future paths of the underlying time series via probabilistic forecasting algorithms, which does not need a sophisticated mathematical dynamic model relying on strong prior knowledge as most other common practices. In order to find the optimal execution time, we formulate the decision task as an optimal stopping problem, and employ a recurrent neural network structure (RNN) to approximate the optimal times. Github repository: \url{github.com/ChenPopper/optimal_timing_TSF}.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2023

WeaverBird: Empowering Financial Decision-Making with Large Language Model, Knowledge Base, and Search Engine

We present WeaverBird, an intelligent dialogue system designed specifically for the finance domain. Our system harnesses a large language model of GPT architecture that has been tuned using extensive corpora of finance-related text. As a result, our system possesses the capability to understand complex financial queries, such as "How should I manage my investments during inflation?", and provide informed responses. Furthermore, our system incorporates a local knowledge base and a search engine to retrieve relevant information. The final responses are conditioned on the search results and include proper citations to the sources, thus enjoying an enhanced credibility. Through a range of finance-related questions, we have demonstrated the superior performance of our system compared to other models. To experience our system firsthand, users can interact with our live demo at https://weaverbird.ttic.edu, as well as watch our 2-min video illustration at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yofgeqnlrMc.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2023

Continual Learning in Predictive Autoscaling

Predictive Autoscaling is used to forecast the workloads of servers and prepare the resources in advance to ensure service level objectives (SLOs) in dynamic cloud environments. However, in practice, its prediction task often suffers from performance degradation under abnormal traffics caused by external events (such as sales promotional activities and applications re-configurations), for which a common solution is to re-train the model with data of a long historical period, but at the expense of high computational and storage costs. To better address this problem, we propose a replay-based continual learning method, i.e., Density-based Memory Selection and Hint-based Network Learning Model (DMSHM), using only a small part of the historical log to achieve accurate predictions. First, we discover the phenomenon of sample overlap when applying replay-based continual learning in prediction tasks. In order to surmount this challenge and effectively integrate new sample distribution, we propose a density-based sample selection strategy that utilizes kernel density estimation to calculate sample density as a reference to compute sample weight, and employs weight sampling to construct a new memory set. Then we implement hint-based network learning based on hint representation to optimize the parameters. Finally, we conduct experiments on public and industrial datasets to demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art continual learning methods in terms of memory capacity and prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we demonstrate remarkable practicability of DMSHM in real industrial applications.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Automatic Deduction Path Learning via Reinforcement Learning with Environmental Correction

Automatic bill payment is an important part of business operations in fintech companies. The practice of deduction was mainly based on the total amount or heuristic search by dividing the bill into smaller parts to deduct as much as possible. This article proposes an end-to-end approach of automatically learning the optimal deduction paths (deduction amount in order), which reduces the cost of manual path design and maximizes the amount of successful deduction. Specifically, in view of the large search space of the paths and the extreme sparsity of historical successful deduction records, we propose a deep hierarchical reinforcement learning approach which abstracts the action into a two-level hierarchical space: an upper agent that determines the number of steps of deductions each day and a lower agent that decides the amount of deduction at each step. In such a way, the action space is structured via prior knowledge and the exploration space is reduced. Moreover, the inherited information incompleteness of the business makes the environment just partially observable. To be precise, the deducted amounts indicate merely the lower bounds of the available account balance. To this end, we formulate the problem as a partially observable Markov decision problem (POMDP) and employ an environment correction algorithm based on the characteristics of the business. In the world's largest electronic payment business, we have verified the effectiveness of this scheme offline and deployed it online to serve millions of users.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Self-Supervised Learning for Time Series Analysis: Taxonomy, Progress, and Prospects

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has recently achieved impressive performance on various time series tasks. The most prominent advantage of SSL is that it reduces the dependence on labeled data. Based on the pre-training and fine-tuning strategy, even a small amount of labeled data can achieve high performance. Compared with many published self-supervised surveys on computer vision and natural language processing, a comprehensive survey for time series SSL is still missing. To fill this gap, we review current state-of-the-art SSL methods for time series data in this article. To this end, we first comprehensively review existing surveys related to SSL and time series, and then provide a new taxonomy of existing time series SSL methods by summarizing them from three perspectives: generative-based, contrastive-based, and adversarial-based. These methods are further divided into ten subcategories with detailed reviews and discussions about their key intuitions, main frameworks, advantages and disadvantages. To facilitate the experiments and validation of time series SSL methods, we also summarize datasets commonly used in time series forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and clustering tasks. Finally, we present the future directions of SSL for time series analysis.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Full Scaling Automation for Sustainable Development of Green Data Centers

The rapid rise in cloud computing has resulted in an alarming increase in data centers' carbon emissions, which now accounts for >3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, necessitating immediate steps to combat their mounting strain on the global climate. An important focus of this effort is to improve resource utilization in order to save electricity usage. Our proposed Full Scaling Automation (FSA) mechanism is an effective method of dynamically adapting resources to accommodate changing workloads in large-scale cloud computing clusters, enabling the clusters in data centers to maintain their desired CPU utilization target and thus improve energy efficiency. FSA harnesses the power of deep representation learning to accurately predict the future workload of each service and automatically stabilize the corresponding target CPU usage level, unlike the previous autoscaling methods, such as Autopilot or FIRM, that need to adjust computing resources with statistical models and expert knowledge. Our approach achieves significant performance improvement compared to the existing work in real-world datasets. We also deployed FSA on large-scale cloud computing clusters in industrial data centers, and according to the certification of the China Environmental United Certification Center (CEC), a reduction of 947 tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to a saving of 1538,000 kWh of electricity, was achieved during the Double 11 shopping festival of 2022, marking a critical step for our company's strategic goal towards carbon neutrality by 2030.

cs.DC↗
arXiv2023

SLOTH: Structured Learning and Task-based Optimization for Time Series Forecasting on Hierarchies

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS) forecasting includes two sub-tasks, i.e., forecasting and reconciliation. In the previous works, hierarchical information is only integrated in the reconciliation step to maintain coherency, but not in forecasting step for accuracy improvement. In this paper, we propose two novel tree-based feature integration mechanisms, i.e., top-down convolution and bottom-up attention to leverage the information of the hierarchical structure to improve the forecasting performance. Moreover, unlike most previous reconciliation methods which either rely on strong assumptions or focus on coherent constraints only,we utilize deep neural optimization networks, which not only achieve coherency without any assumptions, but also allow more flexible and realistic constraints to achieve task-based targets, e.g., lower under-estimation penalty and meaningful decision-making loss to facilitate the subsequent downstream tasks. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our tree-based feature integration mechanism achieves superior performances on hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to the state-of-the-art methods, and our neural optimization networks can be applied to real-world tasks effectively without any additional effort under coherence and task-based constraints

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

End-to-End Modeling Hierarchical Time Series Using Autoregressive Transformer and Conditional Normalizing Flow based Reconciliation

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is pervasive in real-world applications, demanding not only predicting each level of the hierarchy, but also reconciling all forecasts to ensure coherency, i.e., the forecasts should satisfy the hierarchical aggregation constraints. Moreover, the disparities of statistical characteristics between levels can be huge, worsened by non-Gaussian distributions and non-linear correlations. To this extent, we propose a novel end-to-end hierarchical time series forecasting model, based on conditioned normalizing flow-based autoregressive transformer reconciliation, to represent complex data distribution while simultaneously reconciling the forecasts to ensure coherency. Unlike other state-of-the-art methods, we achieve the forecasting and reconciliation simultaneously without requiring any explicit post-processing step. In addition, by harnessing the power of deep model, we do not rely on any assumption such as unbiased estimates or Gaussian distribution. Our evaluation experiments are conducted on four real-world hierarchical datasets from different industrial domains (three public ones and a dataset from the application servers of Alipay's data center) and the preliminary results demonstrate efficacy of our proposed method.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Bellman Meets Hawkes: Model-Based Reinforcement Learning via Temporal Point Processes

We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists ubiquitously in social media, finance and health informatics but is rarely investigated by the conventional research in reinforcement learning. To this end, we present a novel framework of the model-based reinforcement learning where the agent's actions and observations are asynchronous stochastic discrete events occurring in continuous-time. We model the dynamics of the environment by Hawkes process with external intervention control term and develop an algorithm to embed such process in the Bellman equation which guides the direction of the value gradient. We demonstrate the superiority of our method in both synthetic simulator and real-world problem.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

A Graph Regularized Point Process Model For Event Propagation Sequence

Point process is the dominant paradigm for modeling event sequences occurring at irregular intervals. In this paper we aim at modeling latent dynamics of event propagation in graph, where the event sequence propagates in a directed weighted graph whose nodes represent event marks (e.g., event types). Most existing works have only considered encoding sequential event history into event representation and ignored the information from the latent graph structure. Besides they also suffer from poor model explainability, i.e., failing to uncover causal influence across a wide variety of nodes. To address these problems, we propose a Graph Regularized Point Process (GRPP) that can be decomposed into: 1) a graph propagation model that characterizes the event interactions across nodes with neighbors and inductively learns node representations; 2) a temporal attentive intensity model, whose excitation and time decay factors of past events on the current event are constructed via the contextualization of the node embedding. Moreover, by applying a graph regularization method, GRPP provides model interpretability by uncovering influence strengths between nodes. Numerical experiments on various datasets show that GRPP outperforms existing models on both the propagation time and node prediction by notable margins.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Digital Human Interactive Recommendation Decision-Making Based on Reinforcement Learning

Digital human recommendation system has been developed to help customers find their favorite products and is playing an active role in various recommendation contexts. How to timely catch and learn the dynamics of the preferences of the customers, while meeting their exact requirements, becomes crucial in the digital human recommendation domain. We design a novel practical digital human interactive recommendation agent framework based on Reinforcement Learning(RL) to improve the efficiency of the interactive recommendation decision-making by leveraging both the digital human features and the superior flexibility of RL. Our proposed framework learns through real-time interactions between the digital human and customers dynamically through the state-of-art RL algorithms, combined with multimodal embedding and graph embedding, to improve the accuracy of personalization and thus enable the digital human agent to timely catch the attention of the customer. Experiments on real business data demonstrate that our framework can provide better personalized customer engagement and better customer experiences.

cs.IR↗