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Jan Blunk

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Blunk.

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On the Faithfulness of Post-Hoc Concept Bottleneck Models

Human decision-making interprets the world through high-level concepts, such as recognizing a bird by its belly color. To bridge the gap between opaque deep learning representations and human understanding, Post-Hoc Concept Bottleneck Models (post-hoc CBMs) project latent features onto interpretable concept spaces using auxiliary datasets or vision-language models. However, relying on target task accuracy as the primary measure of post-hoc CBM success obscures whether the learned concepts are semantically meaningful or merely predictive artifacts. For example, random concept projections can achieve competitive accuracy despite being semantically meaningless. In this work, we analyze the learned projections directly and identify two failure cases: First, for concept projections learned from auxiliary data, covariate shifts can lead to unfaithful concept representations for the target task. In particular, we provide an upper bound on the error introduced by this shift. Second, systematic label noise in surrogate concept labels generated by vision-language models leads to unfaithful projections. After formalizing these failure modes, we introduce novel metrics that decouple concept faithfulness from predictive accuracy. Our empirical results across real-world and synthetic benchmarks confirm that these metrics identify unfaithful behaviors that standard accuracy-based evaluation fails to detect.

cs.CV

CausalRivers -- Scaling up benchmarking of causal discovery for real-world time-series

Causal discovery, or identifying causal relationships from observational data, is a notoriously challenging task, with numerous methods proposed to tackle it. Despite this, in-the-wild evaluation of these methods is still lacking, as works frequently rely on synthetic data evaluation and sparse real-world examples under critical theoretical assumptions. Real-world causal structures, however, are often complex, making it hard to decide on a proper causal discovery strategy. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalRivers, the largest in-the-wild causal discovery benchmarking kit for time-series data to date. CausalRivers features an extensive dataset on river discharge that covers the eastern German territory (666 measurement stations) and the state of Bavaria (494 measurement stations). It spans the years 2019 to 2023 with a 15-minute temporal resolution. Further, we provide additional data from a flood around the Elbe River, as an event with a pronounced distributional shift. Leveraging multiple sources of information and time-series meta-data, we constructed two distinct causal ground truth graphs (Bavaria and eastern Germany). These graphs can be sampled to generate thousands of subgraphs to benchmark causal discovery across diverse and challenging settings. To demonstrate the utility of CausalRivers, we evaluate several causal discovery approaches through a set of experiments to identify areas for improvement. CausalRivers has the potential to facilitate robust evaluations and comparisons of causal discovery methods. Besides this primary purpose, we also expect that this dataset will be relevant for connected areas of research, such as time-series forecasting and anomaly detection. Based on this, we hope to push benchmark-driven method development that fosters advanced techniques for causal discovery, as is the case for many other areas of machine learning.

cs.LG