arXiv subjects

Jan Fialkowski

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Fialkowski.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Catastrophic disruption cascades driven by the nonlinearity of systemic risk

Whether the COVID-19 pandemic or the Iran war, recent events have highlighted the systemic fragility of supply chains. Due to highly specific and mutual buyer-supplier dependencies, even the failure of a single firm can cause system-wide economic disruptions in the form of cascading failures up and down the supply chain network. Only recently has it become possible to quantify the systemic impact of the failure of individual firms on the total supply chain. Here, we demonstrate that the systemic risk contributions of combinations of firm failures can be drastically larger than the sum of the damage caused by the firms individually. Using a unique data set that allows us to reconstruct the national supply chain network of Ecuador at the firm-level, we find that combined failures can produce systemic risk amplifications of up to a factor of 257. However, only a tiny fraction of 0.14\% of pairs exhibit a more than 4-fold amplification of systemic risk. We develop a simple method to identify firm combinations that lead to large systemic risk amplifications. The origin of these amplifications is a breakdown of the substitutability of defaulted suppliers. We discuss the implications of the existence of rare but strong systemic risk amplification for situations that simultaneously affect multiple firms, such as natural disasters and wars.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Delay-Controlled Heterogeneous Nucleation in Adaptive Dynamical Networks

Phase transitions constitute fundamental mechanisms underlying abrupt or qualitative changes in the collective dynamics of interacting units across a wide range of natural and engineered systems. In dynamical networks, such transitions lead to significant reorganization in the coordinated behavior of coupled elements. In adaptive dynamical networks, the connectivity evolves dynamically in response to the states of the nodes, resulting in a coevolution of structure and dynamics. In this work, we report two distinct forms of heterogeneous nucleation that give rise to single-step and multi-step phase transitions toward global synchronization in finite-size adaptive networks with connection delays. We demonstrate that the nature of the nucleation transition is governed by both the presence and magnitude of the delay, as well as the class of natural frequency distribution. Using a collective coordinate framework, we develop a mean-field description of cluster dynamics and derive an analytical upper bound condition for the existence of two-cluster states, which shows excellent agreement with numerical simulations. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to systems with distributed delays and obtain corresponding analytical conditions. Our results provide a theoretical framework for understanding synchronization transitions in adaptive networks with time-delayed interactions.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2025

A data-driven econo-financial stress-testing framework to estimate the effect of supply chain networks on financial systemic risk

Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might trigger cascading disruptions that affect significant parts of the economy. Here, we study how systemic risk in production networks translates into financial systemic risk through a mechanism where supply chain contagion leads to correlated bank-firm loan defaults. We propose a financial stress-testing framework for micro- and macro-prudential applications that features a national firm level supply chain network in combination with interbank network layers. The model is calibrated by using a unique data set including about 1 million firm-level supply links, practically all bank-firm loans, and all interbank loans in a small European economy. As a showcase we implement a real COVID-19 shock scenario on the firm level. This model allows us to study how the disruption dynamics in the real economy can lead to interbank solvency contagion dynamics. We estimate to what extent this amplifies financial systemic risk. We discuss the relative importance of these contagion channels and find an increase of interbank contagion by 70% when production network contagion is present. We then examine the financial systemic risk firms bring to banks and find an increase of up to 28% in the presence of the interbank contagion channel. This framework is the first financial systemic risk model to take agent-level dynamics of the production network and shocks of the real economy into account which opens a path for directly, and event-driven understanding of the dynamical interaction between the real economy and financial systems.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2024

Disparity Driven Heterogeneous Nucleation in Finite-Size Adaptive Networks

Phase transitions are crucial in shaping the collective dynamics of a broad spectrum of natural systems across disciplines. Here, we report two distinct heterogeneous nucleation facilitating single-step and multi-step phase transitions to global synchronization in a finite-size adaptive network due to the trade-off between time scale adaptation and coupling strength disparities. Specifically, small intracluster nucleations coalesce either at the population interface or within the populations resulting in the two distinct phase transitions depending on the degree of the disparities. We find that the coupling strength disparity largely controls the nature of phase transition in the phase diagram irrespective of the adaptation disparity. We provide a mesoscopic description for the cluster dynamics using the collective coordinates approach that brilliantly captures the multicluster dynamics among the populations leading to distinct phase transitions. Further, we also deduce the upper bound for the coupling strength for the existence of two intraclusters explicitly in terms of adaptation and coupling strength disparities. These insights may have implications across domains ranging from neurological disorders to segregation dynamics in social networks.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2022

Heterogeneous nucleation in finite size adaptive dynamical networks

Phase transitions in equilibrium and nonequilibrium systems play a major role in the natural sciences. In dynamical networks, phase transitions organize qualitative changes in the collective behavior of coupled dynamical units. Adaptive dynamical networks feature a connectivity structure that changes over time, co-evolving with the nodes' dynamical state. In this Letter, we show the emergence of two distinct first-order nonequilibrium phase transitions in a finite size adaptive network of heterogeneous phase oscillators. Depending on the nature of defects in the internal frequency distribution, we observe either an abrupt single-step transition to full synchronization or a more gradual multi-step transition. This observation has a striking resemblance to heterogeneous nucleation. We develop a mean-field approach to study the interplay between adaptivity and nodal heterogeneity and describe the dynamics of multicluster states and their role in determining the character of the phase transition. Our work provides a theoretical framework for studying the interplay between adaptivity and nodal heterogeneity.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2019

Hierarchical frequency clusters in adaptive networks of phase oscillators

Adaptive dynamical networks appear in various real-word systems. One of the simplest phenomenological models for investigating basic properties of adaptive networks is the system of coupled phase oscillators with adaptive couplings. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of this system. We extend recent results on the appearance of hierarchical frequency-multi-clusters by investigating the effect of the time-scale separation. We show that the slow adaptation in comparison with the fast phase dynamics is necessary for the emergence of the multi-clusters and their stability. Additionally, we study the role of double antipodal clusters, which appear to be unstable for all considered parameter values. We show that such states can be observed for a relatively long time, i.e., they are metastable. A geometrical explanation for such an effect is based on the emergence of a heteroclinic orbit.

nlin.AO↗