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Jan Kallsen

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Kallsen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Model-free filtering in high dimensions via projection and score-based diffusions

We consider the problem of recovering a latent signal $X$ from its noisy observation $Y$. The unknown law $\mathbb{P}^X$ of $X$, and in particular its support $\mathscr{M}$, are accessible only through a large sample of i.i.d.\ observations. We further assume $\mathscr{M}$ to be a low-dimensional submanifold of a high-dimensional Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^d$. As a filter or denoiser $\widehat X$, we suggest an estimator of the metric projection $\pi_{\mathscr{M}}(Y)$ of $Y$ onto the manifold $\mathscr{M}$. To compute this estimator, we study an auxiliary semiparametric model in which $Y$ is obtained by adding isotropic Laplace noise to $X$. Using score matching within a corresponding diffusion model, we obtain an estimator of the Bayesian posterior $\mathbb{P}^{X \mid Y}$ in this setup. Our main theoretical results show that, in the limit of high dimension $d$, this posterior $\mathbb{P}^{X\mid Y}$ is concentrated near the desired metric projection $\pi_{\mathscr{M}}(Y)$.

math.ST

Optimal linear filtering of partially observed polynomial processes in discrete and continuous time

This paper is devoted to filtering, smoothing, and prediction of polynomial processes that are partially observed. These problems are known to allow for an explicit solution in the simpler case of linear Gaussian state space models. The key insight underlying the present piece of research is that in linear filtering applications polynomial processes and their discrete-time counterpart are indistinguishable from Gaussian processes sharing their first two moments. We describe the construction of these Gaussian equivalents of polynomial processes and explicitly compute optimal linear filters, predictors and smoothers for polynomial processes in discrete and continuous time. The consideration of Gaussian equivalents also opens the door to parameter estimation and linear-quadratic optimal control in the context of polynomial processes.

math.PR

Parameter Estimation for Partially Observed Affine and Polynomial Processes

This paper is devoted to parameter estimation for partially observed polynomial state space models. This class includes discretely observed affine or more generally polynomial Markov processes. The polynomial structure allows for the explicit computation of a Gaussian quasi-likelihood estimator and its asymptotic covariance matrix. We show consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimating sequence and provide explicitly computable expressions for the corresponding asymptotic covariance matrix.

math.ST

Beyond Fixed Horizons: A Theoretical Framework for Adaptive Denoising Diffusions

We introduce a new class of generative diffusion models that, unlike conventional denoising diffusion models, achieve a time-homogeneous structure for both the noising and denoising processes, allowing the number of steps to adaptively adjust based on the noise level. This is accomplished by conditioning the forward process using Doob's $h$-transform, which terminates the process at a suitable sampling distribution at a random time. The model is particularly well suited for generating data with lower intrinsic dimensions, as the termination criterion simplifies to a first-hitting rule. A key feature of the model is its adaptability to the target data, enabling a variety of downstream tasks using a pre-trained unconditional generative model. These tasks include natural conditioning through appropriate initialisation of the denoising process and classification of noisy data.

stat.ML

Learning to steer with Brownian noise

This paper considers an ergodic version of the bounded velocity follower problem, assuming that the decision maker lacks knowledge of the underlying system parameters and must learn them while simultaneously controlling. We propose algorithms based on moving empirical averages and develop a framework for integrating statistical methods with stochastic control theory. Our primary result is a logarithmic expected regret rate. To achieve this, we conduct a rigorous analysis of the ergodic convergence rates of the underlying processes and the risks of the considered estimators.

stat.ML

Is Learning in Biological Neural Networks based on Stochastic Gradient Descent? An analysis using stochastic processes

In recent years, there has been an intense debate about how learning in biological neural networks (BNNs) differs from learning in artificial neural networks. It is often argued that the updating of connections in the brain relies only on local information, and therefore a stochastic gradient-descent type optimization method cannot be used. In this paper, we study a stochastic model for supervised learning in BNNs. We show that a (continuous) gradient step occurs approximately when each learning opportunity is processed by many local updates. This result suggests that stochastic gradient descent may indeed play a role in optimizing BNNs.

q-bio.NC

Numeraire-invariant quadratic hedging and mean--variance portfolio allocation

The paper investigates quadratic hedging in a semimartingale market that does not necessarily contain a risk-free asset. An equivalence result for hedging with and without numeraire change is established. This permits direct computation of the optimal strategy without choosing a reference asset and/or performing a numeraire change. New explicit expressions for optimal strategies are obtained, featuring the use of oblique projections that provide unified treatment of the case with and without a risk-free asset. The analysis yields a streamlined computation of the efficient frontier for the pure investment problem in terms of three easily interpreted processes. The main result advances our understanding of the efficient frontier formation in the most general case where a risk-free asset may not be present. Several illustrations of the numeraire-invariant approach are given.

math.OC

Are American options European after all?

We call a given American option representable if there exists a European claim which dominates the American payoff at any time and such that the values of the two options coincide in the continuation region of the American option. This concept has interesting implications from a probabilistic, analytic, financial, and numeric point of view. Relying on methods from Jourdain and Martini (2001, 2002), Chrsitensen (2014) and convex duality, we make a first step towards verifying representability of American options.

q-fin.MF

Hedging in Lévy Models and the Time Step Equivalent of Jumps

We consider option hedging in a model where the underlying follows an exponential Lévy process. We derive approximations to the variance-optimal and to some suboptimal strategies as well as to their mean squared hedging errors. The results are obtained by considering the Lévy model as a perturbation of the Black-Scholes model. The approximations depend on the first four moments of logarithmic stock returns in the Lévy model and option price sensitivities (greeks) in the limiting Black-Scholes model. We illustrate numerically that our formulas work well for a variety of Lévy models suggested in the literature. From a theoretical point of view, it turns out that jumps have a similar effect on hedging errors as discrete-time hedging in the Black-Scholes model.

q-fin.CP

On the Structure of General Mean-Variance Hedging Strategies

We provide a new characterization of mean-variance hedging strategies in a general semimartingale market. The key point is the introduction of a new probability measure $P^{\star}$ which turns the dynamic asset allocation problem into a myopic one. The minimal martingale measure relative to $P^{\star}$ coincides with the variance-optimal martingale measure relative to the original probability measure $P$.

q-fin.PM

On uniqueness of solutions to martingale problems --- counterexamples and sufficient criteria

The dynamics of a Markov process are often specified by its infinitesimal generator or, equivalently, its symbol. This paper contains examples of analytic symbols which do not determine the law of the corresponding Markov process uniquely. These examples also show that the law of a polynomial process is not necessarily determined by its generator. On the other hand, we show that a combination of smoothness of the symbol and ellipticity warrants uniqueness in law. The proof of this result is based on proving stability of univariate marginals relative to some properly chosen distance.

math.PR

The General Structure of Optimal Investment and Consumption with Small Transaction Costs

We investigate the general structure of optimal investment and consumption with small proportional transaction costs. For a safe asset and a risky asset with general continuous dynamics, traded with random and time-varying but small transaction costs, we derive simple formal asymptotics for the optimal policy and welfare. These reveal the roles of the investors' preferences as well as the market and cost dynamics, and also lead to a fully dynamic model for the implied trading volume. In frictionless models that can be solved in closed form, explicit formulas for the leading-order corrections due to small transaction costs are obtained.

q-fin.PM

High-Resilience Limits of Block-Shaped Order Books

We show that wealth processes in the block-shaped order book model of Obizhaeva/Wang converge to their counterparts in the reduced-form model proposed by Almgren/Chriss, as the resilience of the order book tends to infinity. As an application of this limit theorem, we explain how to reduce portfolio choice in highly-resilient Obizhaeva/Wang models to the corresponding problem in an Almgren/Chriss setup with small quadratic trading costs.

q-fin.TR

Portfolio Optimization under Small Transaction Costs: a Convex Duality Approach

We consider an investor with constant absolute risk aversion who trades a risky asset with general Ito dynamics, in the presence of small proportional transaction costs. Kallsen and Muhle-Karbe (2012) formally derived the leading-order optimal trading policy and the associated welfare impact of transaction costs. In the present paper, we carry out a convex duality approach facilitated by the concept of shadow price processes in order to verify the main results of Kallsen and Muhle-Karbe under well-defined regularity conditions.

q-fin.PM

On a Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach for stock options

This paper aims at transferring the philosophy behind Heath-Jarrow-Morton to the modelling of call options with all strikes and maturities. Contrary to the approach by Carmona and Nadtochiy (2009) and related to the recent contribution Carmona and Nadtochiy (2012) by the same authors, the key parametrisation of our approach involves time-inhomogeneous Lévy processes instead of local volatility models. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for absence of arbitrage. Moreover we discuss the construction of arbitrage-free models. Specifically, we prove their existence and uniqueness given basic building blocks.

q-fin.PR

Asymptotic Power Utility-Based Pricing and Hedging

Kramkov and Sirbu (2006, 2007) have shown that first-order approximations of power utility-based prices and hedging strategies can be computed by solving a mean-variance hedging problem under a specific equivalent martingale measure and relative to a suitable numeraire. In order to avoid the introduction of an additional state variable necessitated by the change of numeraire, we propose an alternative representation in terms of the original numeraire. More specifically, we characterize the relevant quantities using semimartingale characteristics similarly as in Cerny and Kallsen (2007) for mean-variance hedging. These results are illustrated by applying them to exponential Lévy processes and stochastic volatility models of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard type.

q-fin.PM

On the Existence of Shadow Prices

For utility maximization problems under proportional transaction costs, it has been observed that the original market with transaction costs can sometimes be replaced by a frictionless "shadow market" that yields the same optimal strategy and utility. However, the question of whether or not this indeed holds in generality has remained elusive so far. In this paper we present a counterexample which shows that shadow prices may fail to exist. On the other hand, we prove that short selling constraints are a sufficient condition to warrant their existence, even in very general multi-currency market models with possibly discontinuous bid-ask-spreads.

q-fin.PM

Option Pricing and Hedging with Small Transaction Costs

An investor with constant absolute risk aversion trades a risky asset with general Itô-dynamics, in the presence of small proportional transaction costs. In this setting, we formally derive a leading-order optimal trading policy and the associated welfare, expressed in terms of the local dynamics of the frictionless optimizer. By applying these results in the presence of a random endowment, we obtain asymptotic formulas for utility indifference prices and hedging strategies in the presence of small transaction costs.

q-fin.PR