arXiv subjects

Jan Kleissl

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Kleissl.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Power Estimation and Optimal Work-Charging Scheduling of Construction Electric Vehicles via Mobile Charging Stations

Construction electric vehicles (CEVs) are a promising clean alternative to diesel-powered construction equipment, but their adoption is constrained by sparse onsite charging infrastructure, limited CEV mobility, and insufficient understanding of their power consumption. We address these gaps through a field-data-driven framework coupling CEV power estimation with mobile-charging-aware work scheduling. First, using a real-world construction demonstration at the University of California, San Diego, we develop and validate a per-subactivity power estimation model for a compact electric excavator. Manually labeled video is synchronized with coarse battery state-of-charge (SOC) telematics, and constrained nonnegative least squares is used to recover each subactivity's average power consumption. The model predicts held-out test data within $17\%$ normalized mean absolute error (NMAE), and the accompanying dataset is released publicly. Second, leveraging the subactivity power estimates, we formulate a mixed-integer program that jointly optimizes CEV work and charging schedules together with the location, timing, and charging/discharging of mobile charging stations (MCSs) serving the CEVs. The optimization accounts for energy and demand charges, carbon emissions, unmet work penalties, MCS travel, and the physical and operational constraints of the CEVs and MCSs. Across realistic scenarios drawn from the demonstration, the proposed co-optimization attains the lowest operating cost in every case, being $7$--$96\%$ below the best-performing baseline, while solving most instances to proven optimality within an hour. Dataset and scripts are available at https://github.com/ghosh-avik/CEV-MCS-Power-Estimation-and-Joint-Scheduling.

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arXiv2025

Baseline-improved Economic Model Predictive Control for Optimal Microgrid Dispatch

Economic Model Predictive Control (EMPC) optimizes economic performance over a prediction horizon rather than stabilizing to a reference, making it attractive for microgrid (MG) dispatch. However, since load and generation forecasts are known only 24-48 h ahead, economically optimal steady states or periodic trajectories are unavailable, and EMPC works relying on such signals are inadequate. Moreover, demand charges, based on the maximum monthly grid import, cannot be easily cast as an additive cost, which prevents a naive application of the principle of optimality. We propose to close this mismatch between the EMPC prediction horizon and monthly timescales via an appropriately generated baseline reference trajectory. We first propose an EMPC formulation for a generic deterministic discrete nonlinear time-varying system subject to hard state and input constraints. We then show that, under appropriate terminal ingredients -- sequential control invariance of the terminal region and a terminal control law causing a Lyapunov-like decrease of the terminal cost -- the asymptotic average economic cost of the proposed method is no worse than a baseline given by any arbitrary reference trajectory known only online. This yields a practical, finite-time upper bound on the average economic cost difference with the baseline that decreases linearly to zero as time goes to infinity. We then show how the framework solves optimal MG dispatch problems, introducing costs and constraints that conform to the required assumptions. Using data from the Port of San Diego MG, realistic simulations demonstrate that the proposed method reduces monthly electricity costs in closed loop relative to reference trajectories generated either by optimizing the electricity cost over the prediction horizon or by tracking an ideal grid import curve.

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arXiv2025

Optimal SVI-Weighted PSPS Decisions with Decision-Dependent Outage Uncertainty

Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS) are a pre-emptive strategy to mitigate the wildfires caused by power system malfunction. System operators implement PSPS to balance wildfire mitigation efforts through de-energization of transmission lines against the risk of widespread blackouts modeled with load shedding. Existing approaches do not incorporate decision-dependent wildfire-driven failure probabilities, as modeling outage scenario probabilities requires incorporating high-order polynomial terms in the objective. This paper uses distribution shaping to develop an efficient MILP problem representation of the distributionally robust PSPS problem. Building upon the author's prior work, the wildfire risk of operating a transmission line is a function of the probability of a wildfire-driven outage and its subsequent expected impact in acres burned. A day-ahead unit commitment and line de-energization PSPS framework is used to assess the trade-off between total cost and wildfire risk at different levels of distributional robustness, parameterized by a level of distributional dissimilarity $\kappa$. We perform simulations on the IEEE RTS 24-bus test system.

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arXiv2024

Economic MPC with an Online Reference Trajectory for Battery Scheduling Considering Demand Charge Management

Monthly demand charges form a significant portion of the electric bill for microgrids with variable renewable energy generation. A battery energy storage system (BESS) is commonly used to manage these demand charges. Economic model predictive control (EMPC) with a reference trajectory can be used to dispatch the BESS to optimize the microgrid operating cost. Since demand charges are incurred monthly, EMPC requires a full-month reference trajectory for asymptotic stability guarantees that result in optimal operating costs. However, a full-month reference trajectory is unrealistic from a renewable generation forecast perspective. Therefore, to construct a practical EMPC with a reference trajectory, an EMPC formulation considering both non-coincident demand and on-peak demand charges is designed in this work for 24 to 48 h prediction horizons. The corresponding reference trajectory is computed at each EMPC step by solving an optimal control problem over 24 to 48 h reference (trajectory) horizon. Furthermore, BESS state of charge regulation constraints are incorporated to guarantee the BESS energy level in the long term. Multiple reference and prediction horizon lengths are compared for both shrinking and rolling horizons with real-world data. The proposed EMPC with 48 h rolling reference and prediction horizons outperforms the traditional EMPC benchmark with a 2% reduction in the annual cost, proving its economic benefits.

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arXiv2024

Wildfire Risk Metric Impact on Public Safety Power Shut-off Cost Savings

Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS) are a proactive strategy to mitigate fire hazards from power system infrastructure failures. System operators employ PSPS to deactivate portions of the electric grid with heightened wildfire risks to prevent wildfire ignition and redispatch generators to minimize load shedding. A measure of vegetation flammability, called the Wildland Fire Potential Index (WFPI), has been widely used to evaluate the risk of nearby wildfires to power system operation. However, the WFPI does not correlate as strongly to historically observed wildfire ignition probabilities (OWIP) as WFPI-based the Large Fire Probability (WLFP).Prior work chose not to incorporate wildfire-driven failure probabilities, such as the WLFP, because constraints with Bernoulli random variables to represent wildfire ignitions could require non-linear or non-convex constraints. This paper uses a deterministic equivalent of an otherwise complicating line de-energization constraint by quantifying the wildfire risk of operating transmission line as a sum of each energized line's wildfire ignition log probability (log(WIP)) rather than as a sum of each energized line's WFPI. A day-ahead unit commitment and line de-energization PSPS framework is used to assess the cost differences driven by the choice between the WFPI and WLFP risk metrics. Training the optimization on scenarios developed by mapping WLFP to log(WIP) rather than mapping the WFPI to log(WIP) leads to reductions in the total real-time costs. For the IEEE RTS 24-bus test system, mapping transmission line WLFP values to log(WIP) resulted in a 14.8 % (on average) decrease in expected real-time costs.

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arXiv2024

Adaptive Relaxation based Non-Conservative Chance Constrained Stochastic MPC

Chance constrained stochastic model predictive controllers (CC-SMPC) trade off full constraint satisfaction for economical plant performance under uncertainty. Previous CC-SMPC works are over-conservative in constraint violations leading to worse economic performance. Other past works require a-priori information about the uncertainty set, limiting their application. This paper considers a discrete LTI system with hard constraints on inputs and chance constraints on states, with unknown uncertainty distribution, statistics, or samples. This work proposes a novel adaptive online update rule to relax the state constraints based on the time-average of past constraint violations, to achieve reduced conservativeness in closed-loop. Under an ideal control policy assumption, it is proven that the time-average of constraint violations asymptotically converges to the maximum allowed violation probability. The method is applied for optimal battery energy storage system (BESS) dispatch in a grid connected microgrid with PV generation and load demand, with chance constraints on BESS state-of-charge (SOC). Realistic simulations show the superior electricity cost saving potential of the proposed method as compared to the traditional economic MPC without chance constraints, and a state-of-the-art approach with chance constraints. We satisfy the chance constraints non-conservatively in closed-loop, effectively trading off increased cost savings with minimal adverse effects on BESS lifetime.

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arXiv2024

Wildfire Resilient Unit Commitment under Uncertain Demand

Public safety power shutoffs (PSPS) are a common pre-emptive measure to reduce wildfire risk due to power system equipment. System operators use PSPS to de-energize electric grid elements that are either prone to failure or located in regions at a high risk of experiencing a wildfire. Successful power system operation during PSPS involves coordination across different time scales. Adjustments to generator commitments and transmission line de-energizations occur at day-ahead intervals while adjustments to load servicing occur at hourly intervals. Generator commitments and operational decisions have to be made under uncertainty in electric grid demand and wildfire potential forecasts. This paper presents deterministic and two-stage mean-CVaR stochastic frameworks to show how the likelihood of large wildfires near transmission lines affects generator commitment and transmission line de-energization strategies. The optimal costs of commitment, operation, and lost load on the IEEE 14-bus test system are compared to the costs generated from prior optimal power shut-off (OPS) formulations. The proposed mean-CVaR stochastic program generates less total expected costs evaluated with respect to higher demand scenarios than costs generated by risk-neutral and deterministic methods.

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arXiv2022

Distributed Frequency Control in Power Grids with Low and Time-Varying Inertia

This paper presents a distributed frequency control method for power grids with high penetration of inverter-connected resources under low and time-varying inertia due to renewable energy (RE). We provide a distributed virtual inertia (VI) allocation method using the distributed subgradient algorithm. We implement our distributed control strategy under full and sparse communication architectures. The distributed full and sparse communication controllers achieve comparable performance to a centralized controller and stabilize the test system within 6~s. We study the sensitivity of the controller performance to varying objective function weights on phase angle versus frequency deviation, gradient step sizes, and allowed rate of change of inertia (RoCoI) coefficients. We observe that the settling time of the states and the controller performance and effort are susceptible to changes in the gradient step size and objective weights on the frequency and angle deviation. While a higher objective weight on angle versus frequency deviations positively affects their settling times, it negatively impacts controller performance and control effort. The impact of this work is to propose distributed control schemes as new mechanisms that act before or in alignment with primary and secondary control to safely regulate the frequency in future power grids.

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arXiv2022

Neighbor-Based Optimized Logistic Regression Machine Learning Model For Electric Vehicle Occupancy Detection

This paper presents an optimized logistic regression machine learning model that predicts the occupancy of an Electric Vehicle (EV) charging station given the occupancy of neighboring stations. The model was optimized for the time of day. Trained on data from 57 EV charging stations around the University of California San Diego campus, the model achieved an 88.43% average accuracy and 92.23% maximum accuracy in predicting occupancy, outperforming a persistence model benchmark.

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arXiv2021

Frequency Regulation with Heterogeneous Energy Resources: A Realization using Distributed Control

This paper presents one of the first real-life demonstrations of coordinated and distributed resource control for secondary frequency response in a power distribution grid. We conduct a series of tests with up to 69 heterogeneous active devices consisting of air handling units, unidirectional and bidirectional electric vehicle charging stations, a battery energy storage system, and 107 passive devices consisting of building loads and photovoltaic generators. Actuation commands for the test devices are obtained by solving an economic dispatch problem at every regulation instant using distributed ratio-consensus, primal-dual, and Newton-like algorithms. The distributed control setup consists of a set of Raspberry Pi end-points exchanging messages via an ethernet switch. The problem formulation minimizes the sum of device costs while tracking the setpoints provided by the system operator. We demonstrate accurate and fast real-time distributed computation of the optimization solution and effective tracking of the regulation signal by measuring physical device outputs over 40-minute time horizons. We also perform an economic benefit analysis which confirms eligibility to participate in an ancillary services market and demonstrates up to $53K of potential annual revenue for the selected population of devices.

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arXiv2020

Dynamic Weight-Based Collaborative Optimization for Power Grid Voltage Regulation

Power distribution grids with high PV generation are exposed to voltage disturbances due to the unpredictable nature of renewable resources. Smart PV inverters, if controlled in coordination with each other and continuously adapted to the real-time conditions of the generation and load, can effectively regulate nodal voltages across the feeder. This is a fairly new concept and requires communication and a distributed control logic to realize a fair utilization of reactive power across all PV systems. In this paper, a collaborative reactive power optimization is proposed to minimize voltage deviation under changing feeder conditions. The weight matrix of the collaborative optimization is updated based on the reactive power availability of each PV system, which changes over time depending on the cloud conditions and feeder loading. The proposed updates allow PV systems with higher reactive power availability to help other PV systems regulate their nodal voltage. Proof-of-concept simulations on a modified IEEE 123-node test feeder are performed to show the effectiveness of the proposed method in comparison with four common reactive power control methods.

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arXiv2020

Coordination of OLTC and Smart Inverters for Optimal Voltage Regulation of Unbalanced Distribution Networks

Photovoltaic (PV) smart inverters can improve the voltage profile of distribution networks. A multi-objective optimization framework for coordination of reactive power injection of smart inverters and tap operations of on-load tap changers (OLTCs) for multi-phase unbalanced distribution systems is proposed. The optimization objective is to minimize voltage deviations and the number of tap operations simultaneously. A novel linearization method is proposed to linearize power flow equations and to convexify the problem, which guarantees convergence of the optimization and less computation costs. The optimization is modeled and solved using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). The proposed method is validated against conventional rule-based autonomous voltage regulation (AVR) on the highly-unbalanced modified IEEE 37 bus test system and a large California utility feeder. Simulation results show that the proposed method accurately estimates feeder voltage, significantly reduces voltage deviations, mitigates over-voltage problems, and reduces voltage unbalance while eliminating unnecessary tap operations. The robustness of the method is validated against various levels of forecast error. The computational efficiency and scalability of the proposed approach are also demonstrated through the simulations on the large utility feeder.

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arXiv2019

Optimal Voltage Regulation of Unbalanced Distribution Networks with Coordination of OLTC and PV Generation

Photovoltaic (PV) smart inverters can regulate voltage in distribution systems by modulating reactive power of PV systems. In this paper, an optimization framework for optimal coordination of reactive power injection of smart inverters and tap operations of voltage regulators for multi-phase unbalanced distribution systems is proposed. Optimization objectives are minimization of voltage deviations and tap operations. A novel linearization method convexifies the problem and speeds up the solution. The proposed method is validated against conventional rule-based autonomous voltage regulation (AVR) on the highly-unbalanced IEEE 37 bus test system. Simulation results show that the proposed method estimates feeder voltage accurately, voltage deviation reductions are significant, over-voltage problems are mitigated, and voltage imbalance is reduced.

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arXiv2018

Optimal OLTC Voltage Control Scheme to Enable High Solar Penetrations

High solar Photovoltaic (PV) penetration on distribution systems can cause over-voltage problems. To this end, an Optimal Tap Control (OTC) method is proposed to regulate On-Load Tap Changers (OLTCs) by minimizing the maximum deviation of the voltage profile from 1~p.u. on the entire feeder. A secondary objective is to reduce the number of tap operations (TOs), which is implemented for the optimization horizon based on voltage forecasts derived from high resolution PV generation forecasts. A linearization technique is applied to make the optimization problem convex and able to be solved at operational timescales. Simulations on a PC show the solution time for one time step is only 1.1~s for a large feeder with 4 OLTCs and 1623 buses. OTC results are compared against existing methods through simulations on two feeders in the Californian network. OTC is firstly compared against an advanced rule-based Voltage Level Control (VLC) method. OTC and VLC achieve the same reduction of voltage violations, but unlike VLC, OTC is capable of coordinating multiple OLTCs. Scalability to multiple OLTCs is therefore demonstrated against a basic conventional rule-based control method called Autonomous Tap Control (ATC). Comparing to ATC, the test feeder under control of OTC can accommodate around 67\% more PV without over-voltage issues. Though a side effect of OTC is an increase in tap operations, the secondary objective functionally balances operations between all OLTCs such that impacts on their lifetime and maintenance are minimized.

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arXiv2017

Spatio-Temporal Forecasting by Coupled Stochastic Differential Equations: Applications to Solar Power

Spatio-temporal problems exist in many areas of knowledge and disciplines ranging from biology to engineering and physics. However, solution strategies based on classical statistical techniques often fall short due to the large number of parameters that are to be estimated and the huge amount of data that need to be handled. In this paper we apply known techniques in a novel way to provide a framework for spatio-temporal modeling which is both computationally efficient and has a low dimensional parameter space. We present a micro-to-macro approach whereby the local dynamics are first modeled and subsequently combined to capture the global system behavior. The proposed methodology relies on coupled stochastic differential equations and is applied to produce spatio-temporal forecasts for a solar power plant for very short horizons, which essentially implies tracking clouds moving across the field of solar power inverters. We outperform simple and complex benchmarks while providing forecasts for 70 spatial dimensions and 24 lead times (i.e., for a total number of random variables equal to 1680). The resulting model can provide all sorts of forecast products, ranging from point forecasts and co-variances to predictive densities, multi-horizon forecasts, and space-time trajectories.

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arXiv2017

Market-Driven Energy Storage Planning for Microgrids with Renewable Energy Systems Using Stochastic Programming

Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) can mitigate effects of intermittent energy production from renewable energy sources and play a critical role in peak shaving and demand charge management. To optimally size the BESS from an economic perspective, the trade-off between BESS investment costs, lifetime, and revenue from utility bill savings along with microgrid ancillary services must be taken into account. The optimal size of a BESS is solved via a stochastic optimization problem considering wholesale market pricing. A stochastic model is used to schedule arbitrage services for energy storage based on the forecasted energy market pricing while accounting for BESS cost trends, the variability of renewable energy resources, and demand prediction. The uniqueness of the approach proposed in this paper lies in the convex optimization programming framework that computes a globally optimal solution to the financial trade-off solution. The approach is illustrated by application to various realistic case studies based on pricing and demand data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The case study results give insight in optimal BESS sizing from a cost perspective, based on both yearly scheduling and daily BESS operation.

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arXiv2017

Smart Inverter Impacts on California Distribution Feeders with Increasing PV Penetration: A Case Study

The impacts of high PV penetration on distribution feeders have been well documented within the last decade. To mitigate these impacts, interconnection standards have been amended to allow PV inverters to regulate voltage locally. However, there is a deficiency of literature discussing how these inverters will behave on real feeders under increasing PV penetration. In this paper, we simulate several deployment scenarios of these inverters on a real California distribution feeder. We show that minimum and maximum voltage, tap operations, and voltage variability are improved due to the inverters. Line losses were shown to increase at high PV penetrations as a side effect. Furthermore, we find inverter sizing was shown to be important as PV penetration increased. Finally we show that increasing the number of inverters and removing the deadband from the Volt/VAr control curve improves the effectiveness.

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arXiv2017

Optimal Switchable Load Sizing and Scheduling for Standalone Renewable Energy Systems

The variability of solar energy in off-grid systems dictates the sizing of energy storage systems along with the sizing and scheduling of loads present in the off-grid system. Unfortunately, energy storage may be costly, while frequent switching of loads in the absence of an energy storage system causes wear and tear and should be avoided. Yet, the amount of solar energy utilized should be maximized and the problem of finding the optimal static load size of a finite number of discrete electric loads on the basis of a load response optimization is considered in this paper. The objective of the optimization is to maximize solar energy utilization without the need for costly energy storage systems in an off-grid system. Conceptual and real data for solar photovoltaic power production is provided the input to the off-grid system. Given the number of units, the following analytical solutions and computational algorithms are proposed to compute the optimal load size of each unit: mixed-integer linear programming and constrained least squares. Based on the available solar power profile, the algorithms select the optimal on/off switch times and maximize solar energy utilization by computing the optimal static load sizes. The effectiveness of the algorithms is compared using one year of solar power data from San Diego, California and Thuwal, Saudi Arabia. It is shown that the annual system solar energy utilization is optimized to 73% when using two loads and can be boosted up to 98% using a six load configuration.

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