arXiv subjects

Jan Pablo Burgard

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Pablo Burgard.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Mixed-Integer Linear Optimization for Semi-Supervised Optimal Classification Trees

Decision trees are one of the most popular methods for solving classification problems, mainly because of their good interpretability properties. Moreover, due to advances in recent years in mixed-integer optimization, several models have been proposed to formulate the problem of computing optimal classification trees. The goal is, given a set of labeled points, to split the feature spacewith hyperplanes and assign a class to each part of the resulting partition. In certain scenarios, however, labels are only available for a subset of the given points. Additionally, this subset may be non-representative, such as in the case of self-selection in a survey. Semi-supervised decision trees tackle the setting of labeled and unlabeled data and often contribute to enhancing the reliability of the results. Furthermore, undisclosed sources may provide extra information about the size of the classes. We propose a mixed-integer linear optimization model for computing semi-supervised optimal classification trees that cover the setting of labeled and unlabeled data points as well as the overall number of points in each class for a binary classification. Our numerical results show that our approach leads to a better accuracy and a better Matthews correlation coefficient for biased samples compared to other optimal classification trees, even if onlyfew labeled points are available.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Household size can explain 40% of the variance in cumulative COVID-19 incidence across Europe

Household size impacts the spread of respiratory infectious diseases: Larger households tend to boost transmission by acquiring external infections more frequently and subsequently transmitting them back into the community. Furthermore, mandatory interventions primarily modulate contagion between households rather than within them. We developed an approach to quantify the role of household size in epidemics by separating within-household from out-household transmission, and found that household size explains 41% of the variability in cumulative COVID-19 incidence across 34 European countries (95% confidence interval: [15%, 46%]). The contribution of households to the overall dynamics can be quantified by a boost factor that increases with the effective household size, implying that countries with larger households require more stringent interventions to achieve the same levels of containment. This suggests that households constitute a structural (dis-)advantage that must be considered when designing and evaluating mitigation strategies.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Mixed-Integer Linear Optimization for Cardinality-Constrained Random Forests

Random forests are among the most famous algorithms for solving classification problems, in particular for large-scale data sets. Considering a set of labeled points and several decision trees, the method takes the majority vote to classify a new given point. In some scenarios, however, labels are only accessible for a proper subset of the given points. Moreover, this subset can be non-representative, e.g., due to collection bias. Semi-supervised learning considers the setting of labeled and unlabeled data and often improves the reliability of the results. In addition, it can be possible to obtain additional information about class sizes from undisclosed sources. We propose a mixed-integer linear optimization model for computing a semi-supervised random forest that covers the setting of labeled and unlabeled data points as well as the overall number of points in each class for a binary classification. Since the solution time rapidly grows as the number of variables increases, we present some problem-tailored preprocessing techniques and an intuitive branching rule. Our numerical results show that our approach leads to a better accuracy and a better Matthews correlation coefficient for biased samples compared to random forests by majority vote, even if only few labeled points are available.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Fair Generalized Linear Mixed Models

When using machine learning for automated prediction, it is important to account for fairness in the prediction. Fairness in machine learning aims to ensure that biases in the data and model inaccuracies do not lead to discriminatory decisions. E.g., predictions from fair machine learning models should not discriminate against sensitive variables such as sexual orientation and ethnicity. The training data often in obtained from social surveys. In social surveys, oftentimes the data collection process is a strata sampling, e.g. due to cost restrictions. In strata samples, the assumption of independence between the observation is not fulfilled. Hence, if the machine learning models do not account for the strata correlations, the results may be biased. Especially high is the bias in cases where the strata assignment is correlated to the variable of interest. We present in this paper an algorithm that can handle both problems simultaneously, and we demonstrate the impact of stratified sampling on the quality of fair machine learning predictions in a reproducible simulation study.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

FairML: A Julia Package for Fair Classification

In this paper, we propose FairML.jl, a Julia package providing a framework for fair classification in machine learning. In this framework, the fair learning process is divided into three stages. Each stage aims to reduce unfairness, such as disparate impact and disparate mistreatment, in the final prediction. For the preprocessing stage, we present a resampling method that addresses unfairness coming from data imbalances. The in-processing phase consist of a classification method. This can be either one coming from the MLJ.jl package, or a user defined one. For this phase, we incorporate fair ML methods that can handle unfairness to a certain degree through their optimization process. In the post-processing, we discuss the choice of the cut-off value for fair prediction. With simulations, we show the performance of the single phases and their combinations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Fair Mixed Effects Support Vector Machine

To ensure unbiased and ethical automated predictions, fairness must be a core principle in machine learning applications. Fairness in machine learning aims to mitigate biases present in the training data and model imperfections that could lead to discriminatory outcomes. This is achieved by preventing the model from making decisions based on sensitive characteristics like ethnicity or sexual orientation. A fundamental assumption in machine learning is the independence of observations. However, this assumption often does not hold true for data describing social phenomena, where data points are often clustered based. Hence, if the machine learning models do not account for the cluster correlations, the results may be biased. Especially high is the bias in cases where the cluster assignment is correlated to the variable of interest. We present a fair mixed effects support vector machine algorithm that can handle both problems simultaneously. With a reproducible simulation study we demonstrate the impact of clustered data on the quality of fair machine learning predictions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Mixed-Integer Quadratic Optimization and Iterative Clustering Techniques for Semi-Supervised Support Vector Machines

Among the most famous algorithms for solving classification problems are support vector machines (SVMs), which find a separating hyperplane for a set of labeled data points. In some applications, however, labels are only available for a subset of points. Furthermore, this subset can be non-representative, e.g., due to self-selection in a survey. Semi-supervised SVMs tackle the setting of labeled and unlabeled data and can often improve the reliability of the results. Moreover, additional information about the size of the classes can be available from undisclosed sources. We propose a mixed-integer quadratic optimization (MIQP) model that covers the setting of labeled and unlabeled data points as well as the overall number of points in each class. Since the MIQP's solution time rapidly grows as the number of variables increases, we introduce an iterative clustering approach to reduce the model's size. Moreover, we present an update rule for the required big-$M$ values, prove the correctness of the iterative clustering method as well as derive tailored dimension-reduction and warm-starting techniques. Our numerical results show that our approach leads to a similar accuracy and precision than the MIQP formulation but at much lower computational cost. Thus, we can solve solve larger problems. With respect to the original SVM formulation, we observe that our approach has even better accuracy and precision for biased samples.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Riemannian Optimization for Variance Estimation in Linear Mixed Models

Variance parameter estimation in linear mixed models is a challenge for many classical nonlinear optimization algorithms due to the positive-definiteness constraint of the random effects covariance matrix. We take a completely novel view on parameter estimation in linear mixed models by exploiting the intrinsic geometry of the parameter space. We formulate the problem of residual maximum likelihood estimation as an optimization problem on a Riemannian manifold. Based on the introduced formulation, we give geometric higher-order information on the problem via the Riemannian gradient and the Riemannian Hessian. Based on that, we test our approach with Riemannian optimization algorithms numerically. Our approach yields a higher quality of the variance parameter estimates compared to existing approaches.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

A Riemannian Newton Trust-Region Method for Fitting Gaussian Mixture Models

Gaussian Mixture Models are a powerful tool in Data Science and Statistics that are mainly used for clustering and density approximation. The task of estimating the model parameters is in practice often solved by the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm which has its benefits in its simplicity and low per-iteration costs. However, the EM converges slowly if there is a large share of hidden information or overlapping clusters. Recent advances in manifold optimization for Gaussian Mixture Models have gained increasing interest. We introduce an explicit formula for the Riemannian Hessian for Gaussian Mixture Models. On top, we propose a new Riemannian Newton Trust-Region method which outperforms current approaches both in terms of runtime and number of iterations. We apply our method on clustering problems and density approximation tasks. Our method is very powerful for data with a large share of hidden information compared to existing methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Regional estimates of reproduction numbers with application to COVID-19

In the last year many public health decisions were based on real-time monitoring the spread of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For this one often considers the reproduction number which measures the amount of secondary cases produced by a single infectious individual. While estimates of this quantity are readily available on the national level, subnational estimates, e.g. on the county level, pose more difficulties since only few incidences occur there. However, as countermeasures to the pandemic are usually enforced on the subnational level, such estimates are of great interest to assess the efficacy of the measures taken, and to guide future policy. We present a novel extension of the well established estimator of the country level reproduction number to the county level by applying techniques from small-area estimation. This new estimator yields sensible estimates of reproduction numbers both on the country and county level. It can handle low and highly variable case counts on the county level, and may be used to distinguish local outbreaks from more widespread ones. We demonstrate the capabilities of our novel estimator by a simulation study and by applying the estimator to German case data.

stat.AP↗