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Jan Palczewski

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Palczewski.

29 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Regress-Later Monte Carlo for optimal control of Markov processes

We develop two Regression Monte Carlo algorithms (value and performance iteration) to solve general problems of optimal stochastic control of discrete-time Markov processes. We formulate our method within an innovative framework that allow us to prove the speed of convergence of our numerical schemes. We rely on the Regress Later approach unlike other attempts which employ the Regress Now technique. We exploit error bounds obtained in our proofs, along with numerical experiments, to investigate differences between the value and performance iteration approaches. Introduced in Tsitsiklis and VanRoy [2001] and Longstaff and Schwartz [2001] respectively, their characteristics have gone largely unnoticed in the literature; we show however that their differences are paramount in practical solution of stochastic control problems. Finally, we provide some guidelines for the tuning of our algorithms.

math.OC↗

Bayesian calibration and number of jump components in electricity spot price models

We find empirical evidence that mean-reverting jump processes are not statistically adequate to model electricity spot price spikes but independent, signed sums of such processes are statistically adequate. Further we demonstrate a change in the composition of these sums after a major economic event. This is achieved by developing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure for Bayesian model calibration and a Bayesian assessment of model adequacy (posterior predictive checking). In particular we determine the number of signed mean-reverting jump components required in the APXUK and EEX markets, in time periods both before and after the recent global financial crises. Statistically, consistent structural changes occur across both markets, with a reduction of the intensity and size, or the disappearance, of positive price spikes in the later period. All code and data are provided to enable replication of results.

stat.AP↗

Energy imbalance market call options and the valuation of storage

The use of energy storage to balance electric grids is increasing and, with it, the importance of operational optimisation from the twin viewpoints of cost and system stability. In this paper we assess the real option value of balancing reserve provided by an energy-limited storage unit. The contractual arrangement is a series of American-style call options in an energy imbalance market (EIM), physically covered and delivered by the store, and purchased by the power system operator. We take the EIM price as a general regular one-dimensional diffusion and impose natural economic conditions on the option parameters. In this framework we derive the operational strategy of the storage operator by solving two timing problems: when to purchase energy to load the store (to provide physical cover for the option) and when to sell the option to the system operator. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for the finiteness and positivity of the value function -- the total discounted cash flows generated by operation of the storage unit. We also provide a straightforward procedure for the numerical evaluation of the optimal operational strategy (EIM prices at which power should be purchased) and the value function. This is illustrated with an operational and economic analysis using data from the German Amprion EIM.

math.OC↗

Impulse control maximising average cost per unit time: a non-uniformly ergodic case

This paper studies maximisation of an average-cost-per-unit-time ergodic functional over impulse strategies controlling a Feller-Markov process. The uncontrolled process is assumed to be ergodic but, unlike the extant literature, the convergence to invariant measure does not have to be uniformly geometric in total variation norm; in particular, we allow for non-uniform geometric or polynomial convergence. Cost of an impulse may be unbounded, e.g., proportional to the distance the process is shifted. We show that the optimal value does not depend on the initial state and provide optimal or $\ve$-optimal strategies.

math.OC↗

Undiscounted optimal stopping with unbounded rewards

We study optimal stopping of Feller-Markov processes to maximise an undiscounted functional consisting of running and terminal rewards. In a finite-time horizon setting, we extend classical results to unbounded rewards. In infinite horizon, we resort to ergodic structure of the underlying process. When the running reward is mildly penalising for delaying stopping (i.e., its expectation under the invariant measure is negative), we show that an optimal stopping time exists and is given in a standard form as the time of first entrance to a closed set. This paper generalises Palczewski, Stettner (2014), Stoch Proc Appl 124(12) 3887-3920, by relaxing boundedness of rewards.

math.OC↗

Asymptotics of Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimators

We describe Monte Carlo approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants and explanatory variables. We consider both sources of randomness (due to the initial sample and to Monte Carlo simulations) and prove asymptotical normality of the estimator.

stat.ME↗

Adaptive Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood

We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We examine asymptotics of adaptive importance sampling and a new algorithm, which uses resampling and MCMC. This algorithm is designed to reduce problems with degeneracy of importance weights. Our analysis is based on martingale limit theorems. We also describe how adaptive maximization algorithms of Newton-Raphson type can be combined with the resampling techniques. The paper includes results of a small scale simulation study in which we compare the performance of adaptive and non-adaptive Monte Carlo maximum likelihood algorithms.

stat.ME↗

Infinite horizon stopping problems with (nearly) total reward criteria

We study an infinite horizon optimal stopping problem which arises naturally in the optimal timing of a firm/project sale or in the valuation of natural resources: the functional to be maximised is a sum of a discounted running reward and a discounted final reward. The running and final rewards as well as the instantaneous interest rate (used for calculating discount factors) depend on a Feller-Markov process modelling the underlying randomness in the world, such as prices of stocks, prices of natural resources (gas, oil, etc.), or factors influencing the interest rate. For years, it had seemed sensible to assume that interest rates were uniformly separated from 0, which is needed for the existing theory to work. However, recent developments in Japan and in Europe showed that interest rates can get arbitrarily close to 0. In this paper we establish the feasibility of the stopping problem, prove the existence of optimal stopping times and a variational characterisation (in the viscosity sense) of the value function when interest rates are NOT uniformly separated from 0. Our results rely on certain ergodic properties of the underlying (non-uniformly) ergodic Markov process. We provide several criteria for diffusions and jump-diffusions.

math.OC↗

Interpreting random forest classification models using a feature contribution method

Model interpretation is one of the key aspects of the model evaluation process. The explanation of the relationship between model variables and outputs is relatively easy for statistical models, such as linear regressions, thanks to the availability of model parameters and their statistical significance. For "black box" models, such as random forest, this information is hidden inside the model structure. This work presents an approach for computing feature contributions for random forest classification models. It allows for the determination of the influence of each variable on the model prediction for an individual instance. By analysing feature contributions for a training dataset, the most significant variables can be determined and their typical contribution towards predictions made for individual classes, i.e., class-specific feature contribution "patterns", are discovered. These patterns represent a standard behaviour of the model and allow for an additional assessment of the model reliability for a new data. Interpretation of feature contributions for two UCI benchmark datasets shows the potential of the proposed methodology. The robustness of results is demonstrated through an extensive analysis of feature contributions calculated for a large number of generated random forest models.

cs.LG↗

Stopping of functionals with discontinuity at the boundary of an open set

We explore properties of the value function and existence of optimal stopping times for functionals with discontinuities related to the boundary of an open (possibly unbounded) set $\mathcal{O}$. The stopping horizon is either random, equal to the first exit from the set $\mathcal{O}$, or fixed: finite or infinite. The payoff function is continuous with a possible jump at the boundary of $\mathcal{O}$. Using a generalization of the penalty method we derive a numerical algorithm for approximation of the value function for general Feller-Markov processes and show existence of optimal or $ε$-optimal stopping times.

math.OC↗

Growth-optimal portfolios under transaction costs

This paper studies a portfolio optimization problem in a discrete-time Markovian model of a financial market, in which asset price dynamics depend on an external process of economic factors. There are transaction costs with a structure that covers, in particular, the case of fixed plus proportional costs. We prove that there exists a self-financing trading strategy maximizing the average growth rate of the portfolio wealth. We show that this strategy has a Markovian form. Our result is obtained by large deviations estimates on empirical measures of the price process and by a generalization of the vanishing discount method to discontinuous transition operators.

q-fin.PM↗