arXiv subjects

Jan Stuhler

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Stuhler.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Indirect Estimators of Intergenerational Mobility

This chapter reviews indirect estimators of intergenerational mobility, focusing on approaches that infer parent-child or other family associations when direct income data are incomplete or unavailable. We synthesize methods based on instrumental variables, imputation using observable characteristics such as education and occupation, surname-based estimators, and multigenerational linkages. To unify these approaches, we introduce a stylized framework in which socioeconomic status is transmitted through multiple pathways with heterogeneous persistence rates. Within this framework, both direct and indirect estimators can be interpreted as weighted averages of these underlying transmission channels. A central insight is that the choice of instrument or imputation strategy determines these weights, leading different methods to capture distinct aspects of the transmission process. We highlight implications for interpretation, showing that indirect estimators need not recover conventional parent-child correlations but can instead provide complementary evidence on long-run persistence and the mechanisms underlying persistent inequalities.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Educational Mobility Across Multiple Generations in Indonesia

Standard intergenerational measures have been shown to understate the long-run persistence of socioeconomic advantages in developed countries. We study theoretically and empirically whether this pattern extends to less developed settings, using Indonesia as a case study. Using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) and Census data, we study multigenerational correlations in education across three generations. Contrary to previous findings, we observe greater multigenerational mobility than parent-child correlations alone would suggest. We develop a theoretical framework to highlight two key factors influencing multigenerational dynamics in developing countries: (1) financial and credit constraints, and (2) cultural norms related to marital sorting. To confirm their relevance, we exploit regional variations in exposure to the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and in marital customs.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Assortative Mating, Inequality, and Rising Educational Mobility in Spain

We study the evolution of intergenerational educational mobility and related distributional statistics in Spain. Over recent decades, mobility has risen by one-third, coinciding with pronounced declines in inequality and assortative mating among the same cohorts. To explore these patterns, we examine regional correlates of mobility, using split-sample techniques. A key finding from both national and regional analyses is the close association between mobility and assortative mating: spousal sorting accounts for nearly half of the regional variation in intergenerational correlations and also appears to be a key mediator of the negative relationship between inequality and mobility documented in recent studies.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

A Lifecycle Estimator of Intergenerational Income Mobility

Lacking lifetime income data, most intergenerational mobility estimates are subject to lifecycle bias. Using long income series from Sweden and the US, we illustrate that standard correction methods struggle to account for one important property of income processes: children from affluent families experience faster income growth, even conditional on their own characteristics. We propose a lifecycle estimator that captures this pattern and performs well across different settings. We apply the estimator to study mobility trends, including for recent cohorts that could not be considered in prior work. Despite rising income inequality, intergenerational mobility remained largely stable in both countries.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

The Effects of Immigration on Places and People -- Identification and Interpretation

Most studies on the labor market effects of immigration use repeated cross-sectional data to estimate the effects of immigration on regions. This paper shows that such regional effects are composites of effects that address fundamental questions in the immigration debate but remain unidentified with repeated cross-sectional data. We provide a unifying empirical framework that decomposes the regional effects of immigration into their underlying components and show how these are identifiable from data that track workers over time. Our empirical application illustrates that such analysis yields a far more informative picture of immigration's effects on wages, employment, and occupational upgrading.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Multigenerational Inequality

A growing literature provides evidence on multigenerational inequality -- the extent to which socio-economic advantages persist across three or more generations. This chapter reviews its main findings and implications. Most studies find that inequality is more persistent than a naive iteration of conventional parent-child correlations would suggest. We discuss potential interpretations of this new ``fact'' related to (i) latent, (ii) non-Markovian or (iii) non-linear transmission processes, empirical strategies to discriminate between them, and the link between multigenerational and assortative associations.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Geographic Variation in Multigenerational Mobility

Using complete-count register data spanning three generations, we document spatial patterns in inter- and multi-generational mobility in Sweden. Across municipalities, grandfather-child correlations in education or earnings tend to be larger than the square of the parent-child correlations, suggesting that the latter understate status transmission in the long run. Yet, conventional parent-child correlations capture regional differences in long-run transmission and therefore remain useful for comparative purposes. We further find that the within-country association between mobility and income inequality (the "Great Gatsby Curve") is at least as strong in the multi- as in the inter-generational case. Interpreting those patterns through the lens of a latent factor model, we find that regional differences in mobility primarily reflect variation in the transmission of latent advantages, rather than in how those advantages translate into observed outcomes.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

The Economic Consequences of Being Widowed by War: A Life-Cycle Perspective

Despite millions of war widows worldwide, little is known about the economic consequences of being widowed by war. We use life history data from West Germany to show that war widowhood increased women's employment immediately after World War II but led to lower employment rates later in life. War widows, therefore, carried a double burden of employment and childcare while their children were young but left the workforce when their children reached adulthood. We show that the design of compensation policies likely explains this counterintuitive life-cycle pattern and examine potential spillovers to the next generation.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Exposure to World War II and Its Labor Market Consequences over the Life Cycle

With 70 million dead, World War II remains the most devastating conflict in history. Among the survivors, millions were displaced, returned maimed from the battlefield, or endured years of captivity. We examine the effects of such war exposures on labor market careers, showing that they often become apparent only at certain life stages. While war injuries reduced employment in old age, former prisoners of war prolonged their time in the workforce before retiring. Many displaced workers, especially women, never returned to employment. These responses align with standard life-cycle theory and thus likely hold relevance for other conflicts.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Educational Inequality

This chapter provides new evidence on educational inequality and reviews the literature on the causes and consequences of unequal education. We document large achievement gaps between children from different socio-economic backgrounds, show how patterns of educational inequality vary across countries, time, and generations, and establish a link between educational inequality and social mobility. We interpret this evidence from the perspective of economic models of skill acquisition and investment in human capital. The models account for different channels underlying unequal education and highlight how endogenous responses in parents' and children's educational investments generate a close link between economic inequality and educational inequality. Given concerns over the extended school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic, we also summarize early evidence on the impact of the pandemic on children's education and on possible long-run repercussions for educational inequality.

econ.GN↗