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Jan-Frederik Mai

Publications and source records attributed to Jan-Frederik Mai.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

Performance attribution with respect to interest rates, FX, carry, and residual market risks

We develop a method to decompose the PnL of a portfolio of assets into four parts: (a) PnL due to FX rate changes, (b) PnL due to interest rate changes, (c) carry gain due to time passing, (d) PnL due to residual market risk changes (credit risk, liquidity risk, volatility risk etc.). We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach by decomposing the performance of an FX- and interest rate-hedged negative basis position in our fund XAIA Credit Basis II, and we apply the methodology to decompose the performance of our fund XAIA Credit Debt Capital in the first quarter of 2022 into PnL contributions of the single positions.

q-fin.RM↗

Exchangeable min-id sequences: Characterization, exponent measures and non-decreasing id-processes

We establish a one-to-one correspondence between (i) exchangeable sequences of random variables whose finite-dimensional distributions are minimum (or maximum) infinitely divisible and (ii) non-negative, non-decreasing, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The exponent measure of an exchangeable minimum infinitely divisible sequence is shown to be the sum of a very simple ``drift measure'' and a mixture of product probability measures, which uniquely corresponds to the Lévy measure of a non-negative and non-decreasing infinitely divisible process. The latter is shown to be supported on non-negative and non-decreasing functions. In probabilistic terms, the aforementioned infinitely divisible process is equal to the conditional cumulative hazard process associated with the exchangeable sequence of random variables with minimum (or maximum) infinitely divisible marginals. Our results provide an analytic umbrella which embeds the de Finetti subfamilies of many interesting classes of multivariate distributions, such as exogenous shock models, exponential and geometric laws with lack-of-memory property, min-stable multivariate exponential and extreme-value distributions, as well as reciprocal Archimedean copulas with completely monotone generator and Archimedean copulas with log-completely monotone generator.

math.PR↗

Stochastic decomposition for $\ell_p$-norm symmetric survival functions on the positive orthant

We derive a stochastic representation for the probability distribution on the positive orthant $(0,\infty)^d$ whose association between components is minimal among all probability laws with $\ell_p$-norm symmetric survival functions. It is given by a transformation of a uniform distribution on the standard unit simplex that is multiplied with an independent finite mixture of certain beta distributions and an additional atom at unity. On the one hand, this implies an efficient simulation algorithm for arbitrary probability laws with $\ell_p$-norm symmetric survival function. On the other hand, this result is leveraged to construct an exact simulation algorithm for max-infinitely divisible probability distributions on the positive orthant whose exponent measure has $\ell_p$-norm symmetric survival function. Both applications generalize existing results for the case $p=1$ to the case of arbitrary $p \geq 1$.

math.PR↗

The infinite extendibility problem for exchangeable real-valued random vectors

We survey known solutions to the infinite extendibility problem for (necessarily exchangeable) probability laws on $\mathbb{R}^d$, which is: Can a given random vector $\vec{X} = (X_1,\ldots,X_d)$ be represented in distribution as the first $d$ members of an infinite exchangeable sequence of random variables? This is the case if and only if $\vec{X}$ has a stochastic representation that is "conditionally iid" according to the seminal de Finetti's Theorem. Of particular interest are cases in which the original motivation behind the model $\vec{X}$ is not one of conditional independence. After an introduction and some general theory, the survey covers the traditional cases when $\vec{X}$ takes values in $\{0,1\}^d$ has a spherical law, a law with $\ell_1$-norm symmetric survival function, or a law with $\ell_{\infty}$-norm symmetric density. The solutions in all These cases constitute analytical characterizations of mixtures of iid sequences drawn from popular, one-parametric probability laws on $\mathbb{R}$, like the Bernoulli, the normal, the exponential, or the uniform distribution. The survey further covers the less traditional cases when $\vec{X}$ has a Marshall-Olkin distribution, a multivariate wide-sense geometric distribution, a multivariate extreme-value distribution, or is defined as a certain exogenous shock model including the special case when its components are samples from a Dirichlet prior. The solutions in these cases correspond to iid sequences drawn from random distribution functions defined in terms of popular families of non-decreasing stochastic processes, like a Lévy subordinator, a random walk, a process that is strongly infinitely divisible with respect to time, or an additive process. The survey finishes with a list of potentially interesting open problems.

math.PR↗

Multivariate geometric distributions, (logarithmically) monotone sequences, and infinitely divisible laws (with erratum by Natalia Shenkman)

Two stochastic representations of multivariate geometric distributions are analyzed, both are obtained by lifting the lack-of-memory (LM) property of the univariate geometric law to the multivariate case. On the one hand, the narrow-sense multivariate geometric law can be considered a discrete equivalent of the well-studied Marshall-Olkin exponential law. On the other hand, the more general wide-sense geometric law is shown to be characterized by the LM property and can differ significantly from its continuous counterpart, e.g., by allowing for negative pairwise correlations. For both families of distributions, their $d$-dimensional exchangeable subclass is characterized analytically via $d$-log-monotone, resp.\ $d$-monotone, sequences of parameters. Using this reparameterization, the subfamilies of distributions with conditionally i.i.d.\ components in the sense of de Finetti's theorem are determined. For these, a third stochastic construction based on a non-decreasing random walk is presented. The narrow-sense family is embedded in this construction when the increments of the involved random walk are infinitely divisible. The exchangeable narrow-sense law is furthermore shown to exhibit the multivariate right tail increasing (MRTI) dependence.

math.PR↗

Canonical spectral representation for exchangeable max-stable sequences

The set of infinite-dimensional, symmetric stable tail dependence functions associated with exchangeable max-stable sequences of random variables with unit Fréchet margins is shown to be a simplex. Except for a single element, the extremal boundary is in one-to-one correspondence with the set of distribution functions of non-negative random variables with unit mean. Consequently, each element is uniquely represented by a pair of a constant and a probability measure on the space of distribution functions of non-negative random variables with unit mean. A canonical stochastic construction for arbitrary exchangeable max-stable sequences and a stochastic representation for the Pickands dependence measure of finite-dimensional margins are immediate corollaries. As by-products, a canonical analytical description and an associated canonical Le Page series representation for non-decreasing stochastic processes that are strongly infinitely divisible with respect to time are obtained.

stat.ME↗

On the structure of exchangeable extreme-value copulas

We show that the set of $d$-variate symmetric stable tail dependence functions, uniquely associated with exchangeable $d$-dimensional extreme-value copulas, is a simplex and determine its extremal boundary. The subset of elements which arises as $d$-margins of the set of $(d+k)$-variate symmetric stable tail dependence functions is shown to be proper for arbitrary $k \geq 1$. Finally, we derive an intuitive and useful necessary condition for a bivariate extreme-value copula to arise as bi-margin of an exchangeable extreme-value copula of arbitrarily large dimension, and thus to be conditionally iid.

math.ST↗

Subordinators which are infinitely divisible w.r.t. time: Construction, properties, and simulation of max-stable sequences and infinitely divisible laws

The concept of a Lévy subordinator is generalized to a family of non-decreasing stochastic processes, which are parameterized in terms of two Bernstein functions. Whereas the independent increments property is only maintained in the Lévy subordinator special case, the considered family is always strongly infinitely divisible with respect to time, meaning that a path can be represented in distribution as a finite sum with arbitrarily many summands of independent and identically distributed paths of another process. Besides distributional properties of the process, we present two applications to the design of accurate and efficient simulation algorithms. First, each member of the considered family corresponds uniquely to an exchangeable max-stable sequence of random variables, and we demonstrate how the associated extreme-value copula can be simulated exactly and efficiently from its Pickands dependence measure. Second, we show how one obtains different series and integral representations for infinitely divisible probability laws by varying the parameterizing pair of Bernstein functions, without changing the law of one-dimensional margins of the process. As a particular example, we present an exact simulation algorithm for compound Poisson distributions from the Bondesson class, for which the generalized inverse of the distribution function of the associated Stieltjes measure can be evaluated accurately.

math.PR↗

Exact Simulation of reciprocal Archimedean copulas

The decreasing enumeration of the points of a Poisson random measure whose mean measure has finite survival function on the positive half-axis can be represented as a non-increasing function of the jump times of a standard Poisson process. This observation allows to generalize the essential idea from a well-known exact simulation algorithm for arbitrary extreme-value copulas to copulas of a more general family of max-infinitely divisible distributions, with reciprocal Archimedean copulas being a particular example.

stat.ME↗

Extreme-value copulas associated with the expected scaled maximum of independent random variables

It is well-known that the expected scaled maximum of non-negative random variables with unit mean defines a stable tail dependence function associated with some extreme-value copula. In the special case when these random variables are independent and identically distributed, min-stable multivariate exponential random vectors with the associated survival extreme-value copulas are shown to arise as finite-dimensional margins of an infinite exchangeable sequence in the sense of De Finetti's Theorem. The associated latent factor is a stochastic process which is strongly infinitely divisible with respect to time, which induces a bijection from the set of distribution functions F of non-negative random variables with finite mean to the set of Lévy measures on the positive half-axis. Since the Gumbel and the Galambos copula are the most popular examples of this construction, the investigation of this bijection contributes to a further understanding of their well-known analytical similarities. Furthermore, a simulation algorithm based on the latent factor representation is developed, if the support of F is bounded. Especially in large dimensions, this algorithm is efficient because it makes use of the De Finetti structure.

stat.ME↗

Exchangeable exogenous shock models

We characterize a comprehensive family of $d$-variate exogenous shock models. Analytically, we consider a family of multivariate distribution functions that arises from ordering, idiosyncratically distorting, and finally multiplying the arguments. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the involved distortions to yield a multivariate distribution function are given. Probabilistically, the attainable set of distribution functions corresponds to a large class of exchangeable exogenous shock models. Besides, the vector of exceedance times of an increasing additive stochastic process across independent exponential trigger variables is shown to constitute an interesting subclass of the considered distributions and yields a second probabilistic model. The alternative construction is illustrated in terms of two examples.

math.ST↗

Consistent iterated simulation of multi-variate default times: a Markovian indicators characterization

We investigate under which conditions a single simulation of joint default times at a final time horizon can be decomposed into a set of simulations of joint defaults on subsequent adjacent sub-periods leading to that final horizon. Besides the theoretical interest, this is also a practical problem as part of the industry has been working under the misleading assumption that the two approaches are equivalent for practical purposes. As a reasonable trade-off between realistic stylized facts, practical demands, and mathematical tractability, we propose models leading to a Markovian multi-variate survival--indicator process, and we investigate two instances of static models for the vector of default times from the statistical literature that fall into this class. On the one hand, the "looping default" case is known to be equipped with this property, and we point out that it coincides with the classical "Freund distribution" in the bivariate case. On the other hand, if all sub-vectors of the survival indicator process are Markovian, this constitutes a new characterization of the Marshall--Olkin distribution, and hence of multi-variate lack-of-memory. A paramount property of the resulting model is stability of the type of multi-variate distribution with respect to elimination or insertion of a new marginal component with marginal distribution from the same family. The practical implications of this "nested margining" property are enormous. To implement this distribution we present an efficient and unbiased simulation algorithm based on the Lévy-frailty construction. We highlight different pitfalls in the simulation of dependent default times and examine, within a numerical case study, the effect of inadequate simulation practices.

q-fin.RM↗

Pricing bonds with optional sinking feature using Markov Decision Processes

An efficient method to price bonds with optional sinking feature is presented. Such instruments equip their issuer with the option (but not the obligation) to redeem parts of the notional prior to maturity, therefore the future cash flows are random. In a one-factor model for the issuer's default intensity we show that the pricing algorithm can be formulated as a Markov Decision Process, which is both accurate and quick. The method is demonstrated using a 1.5-factor credit-equity model which defines the default intensity in a reciprocal relationship to the issuer's stock price process, termed jump-to-default extended model with constant elasticity of variance (JDCEV).

q-fin.PR↗