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Jan-Ole Fischer

Publications and source records attributed to Jan-Ole Fischer.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Inferring resource selection and utilization distributions from irregular and error-prone animal tracking data

Habitat selection and space use are fundamental to understanding animal distribution. Traditional methods for quantifying habitat preferences from telemetry data assume regular sampling and negligible measurement error. However, these assumptions are routinely violated in marine systems. Practitioners typically regularize and filter the data before fitting models, but these two-step procedures do not propagate uncertainty from the filtering stage and can yield biased estimates. Habitat-driven Langevin diffusion models offer an elegant alternative, naturally accommodating irregular sampling. However, incorporating measurement error via a state-space formulation is challenging because habitat covariates depend on the latent true locations. We address this using the Laplace approximation to simultaneously integrate over true locations and account for habitat covariates along latent paths, yielding a single-stage framework efficiently implemented in Template Model Builder (TMB). By doing so, we provide the first TMB implementation capable of handling covariates that depend on latent variables, allowing inference via fast and efficient maximum likelihood estimation. Simulations show that our approach outperforms the two-step method, recovering habitat-selection parameters even under substantial measurement error and missing data, with more accurate utilization distributions and trajectory reconstructions. Applied to narwhal (Monodon monoceros) telemetry data, the two-step method substantially shrinks the habitat selection coefficient towards zero, while our unified approach recovers a much stronger signal. Our framework offers a computationally efficient solution to long-standing challenges of measurement error and temporal irregularity in habitat selection inference, applicable across a wide range of taxa and environments.

stat.ME

Fast and scalable inference in hidden Markov models with Gaussian fields

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for analysing time series data that depend on discrete underlying but unobserved states. As such, they have gained prominence across numerous empirical disciplines, in particular ecology, medicine, and economics. However, the increasing complexity of empirical data is often accompanied by additional latent structure such as spatial effects, temporal trends, or measurement perturbations. Gaussian fields provide an attractive building block for incorporating such structured latent variation into HMMs. Fast inference methods for Gaussian fields have emerged through the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. Due to their sparse representation, these integrate well with novel frequentist estimation methods for random-effects models via the use of automatic differentiation and the Laplace approximation. Scaling to high dimensions requires tools such as (R)TMB to exploit sparsity in the Hessian w.r.t. the latent variables - a property satisfied by SPDE fields but violated by the HMM likelihood. We present a modified forward algorithm to compute the HMM likelihood, constructing sparsity in the Hessian and consequently enabling fast and scalable inference. We demonstrate the practical feasibility and the usefulness through simulations and two case studies exploring the detection of stellar flares as well as modelling the movement of lions.

stat.ME

Integrating Unsupervised and Supervised Learning for the Prediction of Defensive Schemes in American football

Anticipating defensive coverage schemes is a crucial yet challenging task for offenses in American football. Because defenders' assignments are intentionally disguised before the snap, they remain difficult to recognize in real time. To address this challenge, we develop a statistical framework that integrates supervised and unsupervised learning using player tracking data. Our goal is to forecast the defensive coverage scheme -- man or zone -- through elastic net logistic regression and gradient-boosted decision trees with incrementally derived features. We first use features from the pre-motion situation, then incorporate players' trajectories during motion in a naive way, and finally include features derived from a hidden Markov model (HMM). Based on player movements, the non-homogeneous HMM infers latent defensive assignments between offensive and defensive players during motion and transforms decoded state sequences into informative features for the supervised models. These HMM-based features enhance predictive performance and are significantly associated with coverage outcomes. Moreover, estimated random effects offer interpretable insights into how different defenses and positions adjust their coverage responsibilities.

stat.AP