arXiv subjects

Janette Larney

Publications and source records attributed to Janette Larney.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Deriving the term-structure of loan write-off risk under IFRS 9 by using survival analysis: A benchmark study

The estimation of marginal loan write-off probabilities is a non-trivial task when modelling the loss given default (LGD) risk parameter in credit risk. We explore two types of survival models in estimating the overall write-off probability over default spell time, where these probabilities form the term-structure of write-off risk in aggregate. These survival models include a discrete-time hazard (DtH) model and a conditional inference survival tree. Both models are compared to a cross-sectional logistic regression model for write-off risk. All of these (first-stage) models are then ensconced in a broader two-stage LGD-modelling approach, wherein a loss severity model is estimated in the second stage. In expanding the model suite, a novel dichotomisation step is introduced for collapsing the write-off probability into a 0/1-value, prior to LGD-calculation. A benchmark study is subsequently conducted amongst the resulting LGD-models. We find that the DtH-model outperforms other two-stage LGD-models admirably across most diagnostics. However, a single-stage LGD-model still had the best results, likely due to the peculiar `L-shaped' LGD-distribution in our data. Ultimately, we believe that our tutorial-style work can enhance LGD-modelling practices when estimating the expected credit loss under IFRS 9.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2025

A cost of capital approach to determining the LGD discount rate

Loss Given Default (LGD) is a key risk parameter in determining a bank's regulatory capital. During LGD-estimation, realised recovery cash flows are to be discounted at an appropriate rate. Regulatory guidance mandates that this rate should allow for the time value of money, as well as include a risk premium that reflects the "undiversifiable risk" within these recoveries. Having extensively reviewed earlier methods of determining this rate, we propose a new approach that is inspired by the cost of capital approach from the Solvency II regulatory regime. Our method involves estimating a market-consistent price for a portfolio of defaulted loans, from which an associated discount rate may be inferred. We apply this method to mortgage and personal loans data from a large South African bank. The results reveal the main drivers of the discount rate to be the mean and variance of these recoveries, as well as the bank's cost of capital in excess of the risk-free rate. Our method therefore produces a discount rate that reflects both the undiversifiable risk of recovery recoveries and the time value of money, thereby satisfying regulatory requirements. This work can subsequently enhance the LGD-component within the modelling of both regulatory and economic capital.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2023

Defining and comparing SICR-events for classifying impaired loans under IFRS 9

The IFRS 9 accounting standard requires the prediction of credit deterioration in financial instruments, i.e., significant increases in credit risk (SICR). However, the definition of such a SICR-event is inherently ambiguous, given its current reliance on evaluating the change in the estimated probability of default (PD) against some arbitrary threshold. We examine the shortcomings of this PD-comparison approach and propose an alternative framework for generating SICR-definitions based on three parameters: delinquency, stickiness, and the outcome period. Having varied these framework parameters, we obtain 27 unique SICR-definitions and fit logistic regression models accordingly using rich South African mortgage and macroeconomic data. For each definition and corresponding model, the resulting SICR-rates are analysed at the portfolio-level on their stability over time and their responsiveness to economic downturns. At the account-level, we compare both the accuracy and dynamicity of the SICR-predictions, and discover several interesting trends and trade-offs. These results can help any bank with appropriately setting the three framework parameters in defining SICR-events for prediction purposes. We demonstrate this process by comparing the best-performing SICR-model to the PD-comparison approach, and show the latter's inferiority as an early-warning system. Our work can therefore guide the formulation, modelling, and testing of any SICR-definition, thereby promoting the timeous recognition of credit losses; the main imperative of IFRS 9.

q-fin.RM↗