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Jason F. Rowe

Publications and source records attributed to Jason F. Rowe.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Kepler-50: Two Planets in Close Resonance Perturbed by a Non-transiting Planet

Kepler-50 has two transiting planets close to the 6:5 commensurability. We analyze transit times measured from Kepler data with dynamical fits. We attribute the residual signal to a near-resonance non-transiting third planet in the system. The parameters of the third planet are degenerate. We identified 55 (15) regions of interest for an exterior (interior) perturber, and characterize system parameters in each region of interest with posterior sampling. We find that removing samples that are not long-term stable provides few additional constraints on posteriors, and that the transit times do not confirm the likely 2-body resonant state of the transiting planets as $\approx$ 68\% of posterior samples that are likely stable are also likely in libration. We identify a small fraction of samples that are in 3-body libration. Despite the degeneracies, we recover robust, tightly constrained masses for Kepler-50 b and c ($2.35^{+0.48}_{-0.43}$ $M_{\oplus}$ and $4.43^{+0.45}_{-0.49}$ $M_{\oplus}$, respectively) and strongly detected non-zero relative eccentricity for Kepler-50 b and c with ($e_c\cos\varpi_c$ - $e_b\cos\varpi_b$) = -0.045 $\pm 0.003$, and ($e_c\sin\varpi_c$ - $e_b\sin\varpi_b$) = -0.030 $\pm 0.004$. These close neighbors are in the radius valley and sub-Neptune by size, respectively ($1.750 \pm 0.038$ $R_{\oplus}$ and $2.079 \pm 0.060$ $R_{\oplus}$). With one of the closest planet pairs known and one of the closest to first-order commensurability, the Kepler-50 system is an especially valuable benchmark for planet formation theory.

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NASA's Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulated Modeling and Retrieval of Near-Infrared Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Pandora is a SmallSat mission dedicated to understanding exoplanets and their host stars by disentangling the impact of stellar heterogeneity on exoplanet transmission spectra. Selected as a NASA Astrophysics Pioneers mission in 2021, Pandora will provide simultaneous long-term visible photometric monitoring (0.4--0.7 $\mu$m) and low-resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (0.9--1.6 $\mu$m) of transiting systems for the purposes of monitoring host star variability and characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres. Pandora's year-long prime mission from 2026 to 2027 coincides with the middle of a decade defined by targeted efforts for atmospheric characterization of exoplanets, offering a key opportunity to leverage this new resource to maximize science with JWST and other observatories. Here we investigate Pandora's anticipated performance for the general exoplanet population accessible to transit spectroscopy, from hot Jupiters to temperate sub-Neptunes. By modeling the atmospheres of five test cases broadly consistent with the bulk properties of HD~209458~b, HD~189733~b, WASP-80~b, HAT-P-18~b, and K2-18~b, we find that Pandora may provide abundance constraints as precise as $\sim$1.0\,dex for main atmospheric absorbers such as H$_2$O and CH$_4$. Then, we explore the synergies between Pandora and JWST. Our results suggest that targets with JWST data in the near-infrared can benefit from the addition of Pandora observations and result in more reliable abundance estimates than with JWST data alone. Moreover, Pandora can serve the community by providing precursory observations of targets of interest for JWST atmospheric characterization. We conclude by outlining strategies for the use of Pandora as a standalone observatory and in synergy with JWST.

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NASA's Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulating the Impact of Stellar Photospheric Heterogeneity and Its Correction

Stellar photospheric heterogeneity is a dominant astrophysical systematic impacting exoplanet transmission spectroscopy. NASA's Pandora SmallSat Mission is designed to address this challenge through contemporaneous visible photometry and NIR spectroscopy of exoplanet host stars. Here we present an end-to-end simulation study quantifying Pandora's ability to infer stellar photospheric properties and correct stellar contamination using out-of-transit observations. We construct eight representative stellar activity scenarios and generate 160 simulated Pandora datasets, incorporating time-dependent stellar spectra, instrument response, and noise. Given accurate models, Bayesian retrievals of Pandora spectrophotometry recover photospheric temperatures with typical uncertainties of ${\approx}30$ K, with no significant bias. Models with two spectral components (i.e., quiescent photosphere and spots) are strongly favored in 95% of cases; one-component models are preferred when true spot filling factors fall below a detection threshold of ${\approx}0.3$%. We propagate the true and inferred stellar parameters to compute true, inferred, and residual contamination signals under physically motivated spot geometries. For simple spot distributions, contamination signals of $10^2{-}10^3$ ppm are reduced to ${\lesssim}10$ ppm, well below Pandora's expected transmission spectroscopy precision (30$-$100 ppm). For more complex spot distributions, geometric degeneracies limit deterministic corrections, leaving residual contamination at the $10^3$ ppm level that must be mitigated using additional constraints, such as spot-crossing events and joint stellar-planetary retrievals of transmission spectra. These results define regimes in which stellar contamination can be corrected from stellar observations alone and show how Pandora stellar observations can identify cases where additional information is required.

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Mapping the Cloud-Driven Atmospheric Dynamics & Chemistry of an Isolated Exoplanet Analog with Harmonic Signatures

Young planetary-mass objects and brown dwarfs near the L/T spectral transition exhibit enhanced spectrophotometric variability over field brown dwarfs. Patchy clouds, auroral processes, stratospheric hot spots, and complex carbon chemistry have all been proposed as potential sources of this variability. Using time-resolved, low-to-mid-resolution spectroscopy collected with the JWST/NIRISS and NIRSpec instruments, we apply harmonic analysis to SIMP J013656.5+093347, a highly variable, young, isolated planetary-mass object. Odd harmonics (k = 3) at pressure levels ~ 1 bar, corresponding to iron and forsterite cloud formation, suggest a potential North-South hemispheric asymmetry in the cloudy, and likely equatorial, regions. We use the inferred harmonics, along with 1-D substellar atmospheric models, to map the flux variability by atmospheric pressure level. We identify distinct time-varying structures in the near-infrared that we interpret as planetary-scale wave (e.g., Rossby or Kelvin)-associated cloud modulation. We detect deviations from bulk (composite) variability in water (S/N = 14.0), carbon monoxide (S/N = 13.0), and methane (S/N = 14.9) molecular signatures. Forsterite cloud modulation is anti-correlated with overlying carbon monoxide and water abundances and correlated with deep methane absorption, suggesting complex interaction between cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry, and temperature structure. Furthermore, we identify distinct harmonic behavior between methane and carbon monoxide absorption bands, providing evidence for time-resolved disequilibrium carbon chemistry. At the lowest pressures (< 100 mbar), we find mapped methane lines transition from absorption to emission, supporting evidence of high-altitude auroral heating via electron precipitation.

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LEO-Vetter: Fully Automated Flux- and Pixel-Level Vetting of TESS Planet Candidates to Support Occurrence Rates

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has identified several thousand planet candidates orbiting a wide variety of stars, and has provided an exciting opportunity for demographic studies. However, current TESS planet searches require significant manual inspection efforts to identify planets among the enormous number of detected transit-like signatures, which limits the scope of such searches. Demographic studies also require a detailed understanding of the relationship between observed and true exoplanet populations; a task for which current TESS planet catalogs are rendered unsuitable by the subjectivity of vetting by eye. We present LEO-Vetter, a publicly available and fully automated exoplanet vetting system designed after the Kepler Robovetter, which is capable of efficiently producing catalogs of promising planet candidates and making statistically robust TESS demographic studies possible. LEO-Vetter implements flux- and pixel-level tests against noise/systematic false positives and astrophysical false positives. The vetter achieves high completeness (91%) and high reliability against noise/systematic false alarms (97%) based on its performance on simulated data. We demonstrate the usefulness of the vetter by searching ~200,000 M dwarf light curves, and reducing ~20,000 transit-like detections down to 172 uniformly vetted planet candidates. LEO-Vetter facilitates analyses that would otherwise be impractical to perform on all possible signals due to time constraints or computational limitations. Users will be able to efficiently produce their own TESS planet catalog starting with transit-like detections, as well as have the framework needed to characterize their catalog's completeness and reliability for occurrence rates.

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Mapping atmospheric features of the planetary-mass brown dwarf SIMP 0136 with JWST NIRISS

In this paper, we analyze James Webb Space Telescope Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph time-series spectroscopy data to characterize the atmosphere of the planetary-mass brown dwarf SIMP J01365662+093347. Principal component analysis reveals that 81\% of spectral variations can be described by two components, implying that variability within a single rotational phase is induced by at least three distinct spectral regions. By comparing our data to a grid of Sonora Diamondback atmospheric models, we confirm that the time-averaged spectrum cannot be explained by a single model but require a linear combination of at least three regions. Projecting these models onto the principal component plane shows that the overall variability is highly correlated with changes in temperature, cloud coverage, and possibly effective metallicity. We also extract brightness maps from the lightcurve and establish North-South asymmetry in the atmosphere. A combined multidimensional analysis of spectro-photometric variability links the three spectral regions to three atmospheric layers. Forsterite cloud and water abundance at each level form unique harmonics of atmospheric variability observed in different spectral bands. Atmospheric retrievals on the time-averaged spectrum are consistent with an optically thick iron cloud deck beneath a patchy forsterite cloud layer and with the overall adiabatic curve. We also demonstrate two new analysis methods: a regionally-resolved spectra retrieval that relies on multi-wavelength spherical harmonics maps, and a method to constrain brightness maps using Doppler information present in the spectra. Future observations of variable brown dwarfs of higher spectral resolution or spanning multiple rotations should help break mapping degeneracy.

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Strict limits on potential secondary atmospheres on the temperate rocky exo-Earth TRAPPIST-1 d

The nearby TRAPPIST-1 system, with its seven small rocky planets orbiting a late-type M8 star, offers an unprecedented opportunity to search for secondary atmospheres on temperate terrestrial worlds. In particular, the 0.8 Earth-radii planet TRAPPIST-1 d lies at the edge of the habitable zone (equilibrium temperature ~262 K). Here we present the first 0.6-5.2 micron NIRSpec/PRISM transmission spectrum of TRAPPIST-1 d from two transits with JWST. We find that stellar contamination from unocculted bright heterogeneities introduces 500-1,000 ppm visit-dependent slopes, consistent with constraints from the out-of-transit stellar spectrum. Once corrected, the transmission spectrum is flat within $\pm$100-150 ppm, showing no evidence for a haze-like slope or molecular absorption despite NIRSpec/PRISM's sensitivity to CH4, H2O, CO, SO2, and CO2. Our observations exclude clear, hydrogen-dominated atmospheres with high confidence (greater than 3$\sigma$). We leverage our constraints on even trace amounts of CH4, H2O, and CO2 to further reject high mean molecular weight compositions analogous to Titan, a cloud-free Venus, early Mars, and both Archean Earth and a cloud-free modern Earth scenario (greater than 95% confidence). If TRAPPIST-1 d retains an atmosphere, it is likely extremely thin or contains high-altitude aerosols, with water cloud formation at the terminator predicted by 3D global climate models. Alternatively, if TRAPPIST-1 d is airless, our evolutionary models indicate that TRAPPIST-1 b, c, and d must have formed with less than approximately 4 Earth oceans of water, though this would not preclude atmospheres on the cooler habitable-zone planets TRAPPIST-1 e, f, and g.

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JWST NIRISS Transmission Spectroscopy of the Super-Earth GJ 357b, a Favourable Target for Atmospheric Retention

We present a JWST NIRISS/SOSS transmission spectrum of the super-Earth GJ 357 b: the first atmospheric observation of this exoplanet. Despite missing the first $\sim$40 % of the transit due to using an out-of-date ephemeris, we still recover a transmission spectrum that does not display any clear signs of atmospheric features. We perform a search for Gaussian-shaped absorption features within the data but find that this analysis yields comparable fits to the observations as a flat line. We compare the transmission spectrum to a grid of atmosphere models and reject, to 3-$\sigma$ confidence, atmospheres with metallicities $\lesssim$100$\times$ solar ($\sim$4 g/mol) with clouds at pressures down to 0.01 bar. We analyse how the retention of a secondary atmosphere on GJ 357 b may be possible due to its higher escape velocity compared to an Earth-sized planet and the exceptional inactivity of its host star relative to other M2.5V stars. The star's XUV luminosity decays below the threshold for rapid atmospheric escape early enough that the volcanic revival of an atmosphere of several bars of CO$_2$ is plausible, though subject to considerable uncertainty. Finally, we model the feasibility of detecting an atmosphere on GJ 357 b with MIRI/LRS, MIRI photometry, and NIRSpec/G395H. We find that, with two eclipses, it would be possible to detect features indicative of an atmosphere or surface. Further to this, with 3-4 transits, it would be possible to detect a 1 bar nitrogen-rich atmosphere with 1000 ppm of CO$_2$.

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Continuous helium absorption from the leading and trailing tails of WASP-107b

The detection of helium escaping the atmosphere of exoplanets has revolutionized our understanding of atmospheric escape and exoplanetary evolution. Using high-precision spectroscopic observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) NIRISS-SOSS mode, we report the detection of significant helium absorption during the pre-transit phase of WASP-107b (17$\sigma$), as well as in the transit and post-transit phases. This unique continuous helium absorption begins approximately 1.5 hours before the planet's ingress and reveals the presence of an extended thermosphere. The observations show a maximum transit depth of 2.395$\% \pm$ 0.01$\%$ near the helium triplet (36$\sigma$; at NIRISS-SOSS resolution $\sim$ 700). Our ellipsoidal model of the planetary thermosphere matches well the measured light curve suggesting an outflow extending to tens of planetary radii. Furthermore, we confidently detect water absorption (log10 H2O=-2.5 $\pm$ 0.6), superimposed with a short-wavelength slope which we attribute to a prominent signature from unocculted stellar spots (5.2$\sigma$), rather than a small-particle haze slope. We place an upper limit on the abundance of K (log10 K$<$-4.86, or K/H$<$ 75$\times$ stellar) at 2$\sigma$, which is consistent with the O/H super-solar metallicity estimate. This study underscores the transformative potential of JWST for tracing atmospheric and mass-loss processes, while offering a benchmark for future studies targeting helium escape and its implications for planetary evolution.

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A Moderate Albedo from Reflecting Aerosols on the Dayside of WASP-80 b Revealed by JWST/NIRISS Eclipse Spectroscopy

Secondary eclipse observations of exoplanets at near-infrared wavelengths enable the detection of thermal emission and reflected stellar light, providing insights into the thermal structure and aerosol composition of their atmospheres. These properties are intertwined, as aerosols influence the energy budget of the planet. WASP-80 b is a warm gas giant with an equilibrium temperature of 825 K orbiting a bright late-K/early-M dwarf, and for which the presence of aerosols in its atmosphere have been suggested from previous HST and Spitzer observations. We present an eclipse spectrum of WASP-80 b obtained with JWST NIRISS/SOSS, spanning 0.68 to 2.83 $\mu$m, which includes the first eclipse measurements below 1.1 $\mu$m for this exoplanet, extending our ability to probe light reflected by its atmosphere. When a reflected light geometric albedo is included in the atmospheric retrieval, our eclipse spectrum is best explained by a reflected light contribution of $\sim$30 ppm at short wavelengths, although further observations are needed to statistically confirm this preference. We measure a dayside brightness temperature of $T_{\rm B}=811_{-70}^{+69}$ K and constrain the reflected light geometric albedo across the SOSS wavelength range to $A_{\rm g}=0.204_{-0.056}^{+0.051}$, allowing us to estimate a 1-$\sigma$ range for the Bond albedo of $0.148\lesssim A_{\rm B}\lesssim0.383$. By comparing our spectrum with aerosol models, we find that manganese sulfide and silicate clouds are disfavored, while cloud species with weak-to-moderate near-infrared reflectance, along with soots or low formation-rate tholin hazes, are consistent with our eclipse spectrum.

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The Pandora SmallSat: A Low-Cost, High Impact Mission to Study Exoplanets and Their Host Stars

The Pandora SmallSat is a NASA flight project aimed at studying the atmospheres of exoplanets -- planets orbiting stars outside our Solar System. Pandora will provide the first dataset of simultaneous, multiband (visible and NIR), long-baseline observations of exoplanets and their host stars. Pandora is an ambitious project that will fly a 0.44 m telescope in a small form factor. To achieve the scientific goals, the mission requires a departure from the traditional cost-schedule paradigm of half-meter-class observatories. Pandora achieves this by leveraging existing capabilities that necessitate minimal engineering development, disruptive and agile management, trusted partnerships with vendors, and strong support from the lead institutions. The Pandora team has developed a suite of high-fidelity parameterized simulation and modeling tools to estimate the performance of both imaging channels. This has enabled a unique bottom-up approach to deriving trades and system requirements. Pandora is a partnership between NASA and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The project completed its Critical Design Review in October 2023 and is slated for launch into Sun-synchronous, low-Earth orbit in Fall 2025.

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Highly reflective white clouds on the western dayside of an exo-Neptune

Highly-irradiated gas giant exoplanets are predicted to show circulation patterns dominated by day-to-night heat transport and a spatial distribution of clouds that is driven by advection and local heating. Hot-Jupiters have been extensively studied from broadband phase-curve observations at infrared and optical wavelengths, but spectroscopic observations in the reflected light are rare and the regime of smaller and higher-metallicity ultra-hot planets, such as hot-Neptunes, remains largely unexplored to date. Here we present the phase-resolved reflected-light and thermal-emission spectroscopy of the ultra-hot Neptune LTT 9779b, obtained through observing its full phase-curve from 0.6 to 2.8 $\mu$m with JWST NIRISS/SOSS. We detect an asymmetric dayside in reflected light (3.1$\sigma$ significance) with highly-reflective white clouds on the western dayside (A = 0.79$\pm$0.15) and a much lower-albedo eastern dayside (A = 0.41$\pm$0.10), resulting in an overall dayside albedo of A = 0.50$\pm$0.07. The thermal phase curve is symmetric about the substellar point, with a dayside effective temperature of T$_\mathrm{eff,day}$ = 2,260$^{+40}_{-50}$ K and a cold nightside (T$_\mathrm{eff,night}$ <1,330 K at 3-$\sigma$ confidence), indicative of short radiative timescales. We propose an atmospheric circulation and cloud distribution regime in which heat is transported eastward from the dayside towards the cold nightside by an equatorial jet, leading to a colder western dayside where temperatures are sufficiently low for the condensation of silicate clouds.

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Seasonal Changes in the Atmosphere of HD 80606b Observed with JWST's NIRSpec/G395H

High-eccentricity gas giant planets serve as unique laboratories for studying the thermal and chemical properties of H/He-dominated atmospheres. One of the most extreme cases is HD 80606b -- a hot Jupiter orbiting a sun-like star with an eccentricity of $0.93$ -- which experiences an increase in incident flux of nearly three orders of magnitude as the star-planet separation decreases from $0.88\,{\rm AU}$ at apoastron to $0.03\,{\rm AU}$ at periastron. We observed the planet's periastron passage using \emph{JWST}'s NIRSpec/G395H instrument ($2.8-5.2\,{\rm \mu m}$) during a $21\,{\rm hr}$ window centered on the eclipse. We find that, as the planet passes through periastron, its emission spectrum transitions from a featureless blackbody to one in which CO, CH$_4$, and H$_2$O absorption features are visible. We detect CH$_4$ during post-periapse phases at $4.1-10.7\sigma$ depending on the phase and on whether a flux offset is included to account for NRS1 detector systematics. Following periapse, H$_2$O and CO are also detected at $4.2-5.5\sigma$ and $3.7-4.4\sigma$, respectively. Furthermore, we rule out the presence of a strong temperature inversion near the IR photosphere based on the lack of obvious emission features throughout the observing window. General circulation models had predicted an inversion during periapse passage. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of studying hot Jupiter atmospheres using partial phase curves obtained with NIRSpec/G395H.

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The Radius Distribution of M dwarf-hosted Planets and its Evolution

M dwarf stars are the most promising hosts for detection and characterization of small and potentially habitable planets, and provide leverage relative to solar-type stars to test models of planet formation and evolution. Using \emph{Gaia} astrometry, adaptive optics imaging, and calibrated gyrochronologic relations to estimate stellar properties and filter binaries we refined the radii of 117 Kepler Objects of Interest (confirmed or candidate planets) transiting 74 single late K- and early M-type stars, and assigned stellar rotation-based ages to 113 of these. We constructed the radius distribution of 115 small ($<4R_{\oplus}$) planets and assessed its evolution. As for solar-type stars, the inferred distribution contains distinct populations of "super-Earths" (at $\approx$1.3$_{\oplus}$) and "sub-Neptunes" (at $\approx$2.2$R_{\oplus}$) separated by a gap or "valley" at $\approx$1.7$_{\oplus}$ that has a period dependence that is significantly weaker (power law index of -0.03$^{+0.01}_{-0.03}$) than for solar-type stars. Sub-Neptunes are largely absent at short periods ($<$2 days) and high irradiance, a feature analogous to the "Neptune desert" observed around solar-type stars. The relative number of sub-Neptunes to super-Earths declines between the younger and older halves of the sample (median age 3.86 Gyr), although the formal significance is low ($p = 0.08$) because of the small sample size. The decline in sub-Neptunes appears to be more pronounced on wider orbits and low stellar irradiance. This is not due to detection bias and suggests a role for H$_2$O as steam in inflating the radii of sub-Neptunes and/or regulating the escape of H/He from them.

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Validation of a Third Planet in the LHS 1678 System

The nearby LHS 1678 (TOI-696) system contains two confirmed planets and a wide-orbit, likely-brown-dwarf companion, which orbit an M2 dwarf with a unique evolutionary history. The host star occupies a narrow "gap" in the HR diagram lower main sequence, associated with the M dwarf fully convective boundary and long-term luminosity fluctuations. This system is one of only about a dozen M dwarf multi-planet systems to date that hosts an ultra-short period planet (USP). Here we validate and characterize a third planet in the LHS 1678 system using TESS Cycle 1 and 3 data and a new ensemble of ground-based light curves. LHS 1678 d is a 0.98 +/-0.07 Earth radii planet in a 4.97-day orbit, with an insolation flux of 9.1 +0.9/-0.8 Earth insolations. These properties place it near 4:3 mean motion resonance with LHS 1678 c and in company with LHS 1678 c in the Venus zone. LHS 1678 c and d are also twins in size and predicted mass, making them a powerful duo for comparative exoplanet studies. LHS 1678 d joins its siblings as another compelling candidate for atmospheric measurements with the JWST and mass measurements using high-precision radial velocity techniques. Additionally, USP LHS 1678 b breaks the "peas-in-a-pod" trend in this system, although additional planets could fill in the "pod" beyond its orbit. LHS 1678's unique combination of system properties and their relative rarity among the ubiquity of compact multi-planet systems around M dwarfs makes the system a valuable benchmark for testing theories of planet formation and evolution.

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Gaussian Processes and Nested Sampling Applied to Kepler's Small Long-period Exoplanet Candidates

There are more than 5000 confirmed and validated planets beyond the solar system to date, more than half of which were discovered by NASA's Kepler mission. The catalog of Kepler's exoplanet candidates has only been extensively analyzed under the assumption of white noise (i.i.d. Gaussian), which breaks down on timescales longer than a day due to correlated noise (point-to-point correlation) from stellar variability and instrumental effects. Statistical validation of candidate transit events becomes increasingly difficult when they are contaminated by this form of correlated noise, especially in the low-signal-to-noise (S/N) regimes occupied by Earth--Sun and Venus--Sun analogs. To diagnose small long-period, low-S/N putative transit signatures with few (roughly 3--9) observed transit-like events (e.g., Earth--Sun analogs), we model Kepler's photometric data as noise, treated as a Gaussian process, with and without the inclusion of a transit model. Nested sampling algorithms from the Python UltraNest package recover model evidences and maximum a posteriori parameter sets, allowing us to disposition transit signatures as either planet candidates or false alarms within a Bayesian framework.

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Updated Catalog of Kepler Planet Candidates: Focus on Accuracy and Orbital Periods

We present a new catalog of Kepler planet candidates that prioritizes accuracy of planetary dispositions and properties over uniformity. This catalog contains 4376 transiting planet candidates, including 1791 residing within 709 multi-planet systems, and provides the best parameters available for a large sample of Kepler planet candidates. We also provide a second set of stellar and planetary properties for transiting candidates that are uniformly-derived for use in occurrence rates studies. Estimates of orbital periods have been improved, but as in previous catalogs, our tabulated values for period uncertainties do not fully account for transit timing variations (TTVs). We show that many planets are likely to have TTVs with long periodicities caused by various processes, including orbital precession, and that such TTVs imply that ephemerides of Kepler planets are not as accurate on multi-decadal timescales as predicted by the small formal errors (typically 1 part in $10^6$ and rarely $ > 10^{-5}$) in the planets' measured mean orbital periods during the Kepler epoch. Analysis of normalized transit durations implies that eccentricities of planets are anti-correlated with the number of companion transiting planets. Our primary catalog lists all known Kepler planet candidates that orbit and transit only one star; for completeness, we also provide an abbreviated listing of the properties of the two dozen non-transiting planets that have been identified around stars that host transiting planets discovered by Kepler.

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Near-Infrared Transmission Spectroscopy of HAT-P-18$\,$b with NIRISS: Disentangling Planetary and Stellar Features in the Era of JWST

The JWST Early Release Observations (ERO) included a NIRISS/SOSS (0.6-2.8$\,\mu$m) transit of the $\sim\,$850$\,$K Saturn-mass exoplanet HAT-P-18$\,$b. Initial analysis of these data reported detections of water, escaping helium, and haze. However, active K dwarfs like HAT-P-18 possess surface heterogeneities $-$ starspots and faculae $-$ that can complicate the interpretation of transmission spectra, and indeed, a spot-crossing event is present in HAT-P-18$\,$b's NIRISS/SOSS light curves. Here, we present an extensive reanalysis and interpretation of the JWST ERO transmission spectrum of HAT-P-18$\,$b, as well as HST/WFC3 and $\textit{Spitzer}$/IRAC transit observations. We detect H$_2$O (12.5$\,\sigma$), CO$_2$ (7.3$\,\sigma$), a cloud deck (7.4$\,\sigma$), and unocculted starspots (5.8$\,\sigma$), alongside hints of Na (2.7$\,\sigma$). We do not detect the previously reported CH$_4$ ($\log$ CH$_4$ $<$ -6 to 2$\,\sigma$). We obtain excellent agreement between three independent retrieval codes, which find a sub-solar H$_2$O abundance ($\log$ H$_2$O $\approx -4.4 \pm 0.3$). However, the inferred CO$_2$ abundance ($\log$ CO$_2$ $\approx -4.8 \pm 0.4$) is significantly super-solar and requires further investigation into its origin. We also introduce new stellar heterogeneity considerations by fitting for the active regions' surface gravities $-$ a proxy for the effects of magnetic pressure. Finally, we compare our JWST inferences to those from HST/WFC3 and $\textit{Spitzer}$/IRAC. Our results highlight the exceptional promise of simultaneous planetary atmosphere and stellar heterogeneity constraints in the era of JWST and demonstrate that JWST transmission spectra may warrant more complex treatments of the transit light source effect.

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