arXiv subjects

Jason Wright

Publications and source records attributed to Jason Wright.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Are We There Yet? Challenges in Quantifying the Frequency of Earth Analogs in the Habitable Zone

Searching for life elsewhere in the universe is one of the most highly prioritized pursuits in astronomy today. However, the ability to observe evidence of Earth-like life through biosignatures is limited by the number of planets in the solar neighborhood with conditions similar to Earth. The occurrence rate of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars, $\eta_{\oplus}$, is therefore crucial for addressing the apparent lack of consensus on its value in the literature. Here we present a review of the current understanding of $\eta_{\oplus}$. We first provide definitions for parameters that contribute to $\eta_{\oplus}$. Then, we discuss the previous and current estimated parameter values and the context of the limitations on the analyses that produced these estimates. We compile an extensive list of the factors that go into any calculation of $\eta_{\oplus}$, and how detection techniques and surveys differ in their sensitivity and ability to accurately constrain $\eta_{\oplus}$. Understanding and refining the value of $\eta_{\oplus}$ is crucial for upcoming missions and telescopes, such as the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets, which aim to search for biosignatures on exoplanets in the solar neighborhood.

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arXiv2025

Searching for GEMS: Confirmation of TOI-5573b, a Cool, Saturn-like Planet Orbiting An M-dwarf

We present the confirmation of TOI-5573b, a Saturn-sized exoplanet on an 8.79-day orbit around an early M-dwarf (3790 K, 0.59 R$\odot$, 0.61 M$\odot$, 12.30 J mag). TOI-5573b has a mass of $112^{+18}_{-19}$ M$\oplus$ (0.35$\pm$0.06 M$\mathrm{Jup}$) and a radius of $9.75\pm0.47$ R$\oplus$ (0.87$\pm$0.04 R$\mathrm{Jup}$), resulting in a density of $0.66^{+0.16}_{-0.13}$ g cm$^{-3}$, akin to that of Saturn. The planet was initially discovered by TESS and confirmed using a combination of 11 transits from four TESS sectors (20, 21, 47 and 74), ground-based photometry from the Red Buttes Observatory, and high-precision radial velocity data from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) and NEID spectrographs, achieving a 5$\sigma$ precision on the planet's mass. TOI-5573b is one of the coolest Saturn-like exoplanets discovered around an M-dwarf, with an equilibrium temperature of $528\pm10$ K, making it a valuable target for atmospheric characterization. Saturn-like exoplanets around M-dwarfs likely form through core accretion, with increased disk opacity slowing gas accretion and limiting their mass. The host star's super-solar metallicity supports core accretion, but uncertainties in M-dwarf metallicity estimates complicate definitive conclusions. Compared to other GEMS (Giant Exoplanets around M-dwarf Stars) orbiting metal-rich stars, TOI-5573b aligns with the observed pattern that giant planets preferentially form around M-dwarfs with super-solar metallicity. Further high-resolution spectroscopic observations are needed to explore the role of stellar metallicity in shaping the formation and properties of giant exoplanets like TOI-5573b.

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arXiv2024

Gaia-4b and 5b: Radial Velocity Confirmation of Gaia Astrometric Orbital Solutions Reveal a Massive Planet and a Brown Dwarf Orbiting Low-mass Stars

Gaia astrometry of nearby stars is precise enough to detect the tiny displacements induced by substellar companions, but radial velocity data are needed for definitive confirmation. Here we present radial velocity follow-up observations of 28 M and K stars with candidate astrometric substellar companions, which led to the confirmation of two systems, Gaia-4b and Gaia-5b, and the refutation of 21 systems as stellar binaries. Gaia-4b is a massive planet ($M = 11.8 \pm 0.7 \:\mathrm{M_J}$) in a $P = 571.3 \pm 1.4\:\mathrm{day}$ orbit with a projected semi-major axis $a_0=0.312 \pm 0.040\:\mathrm{mas}$ orbiting a $0.644 \pm 0.02 \:\mathrm{M_\odot}$ star. Gaia-5b is a brown dwarf ($M = 20.9 \pm 0.5\:\mathrm{M_J}$) in a $P = 358.58 \pm 0.19\:\mathrm{days}$ eccentric $e=0.6412 \pm 0.0027$ orbit with a projected angular semi-major axis of $a_0 = 0.947 \pm 0.038\:\mathrm{mas}$ around a $0.34 \pm 0.03 \mathrm{M_\odot}$ star. Gaia-4b is one of the first exoplanets discovered via the astrometric technique, and is one of the most massive planets known to orbit a low-mass star.

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arXiv2024

Searching for GEMS: TOI-5688 A b, a low-density giant orbiting a high-metallicity early M-dwarf

We present the discovery of a low-density planet orbiting the high-metallicity early M-dwarf TOI-5688 A b. This planet was characterized as part of the search for transiting giant planets ($R \gtrsim8$ M${}_\oplus$) through the Searching for GEMS (Giant Exoplanets around M-dwarf Stars) survey. The planet was discovered with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), and characterized with ground-based transits from Red Buttes Observatory (RBO), the Table Mountain Observatory of Pomona College, and radial velocity (RV) measurements with the Habitable-Zone Planet Finder (HPF) on the 10 m Hobby Eberly Telescope (HET) and NEID on the WIYN 3.5 m telescope. From the joint fit of transit and RV data, we measure a planetary mass and radius of $124\pm24$ M$_\oplus$ ($0.39\pm0.07$ M${}_J$) and $10.4\pm0.7$ R$_\oplus$ ($0.92\pm0.06$ R${}_J$) respectively. The spectroscopic and photometric analysis of the host star TOI-5688 A shows that it is a metal-rich ([Fe/H] $ = 0.47\pm0.16$ dex) M2V star, favoring the core-accretion formation pathway as the likely formation scenario for this planet. Additionally, Gaia astrometry suggests the presence of a wide-separation binary companion, TOI-5688 B, which has a projected separation of $\sim5"$ (1110 AU) and is an M4V, making TOI-5688 A b part of the growing number of GEMS in wide-separation binary systems.

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arXiv2023

Deconstructing Alien Hunting

The search for extraterrestrial (alien) life is one of the greatest scientific quests yet raises fundamental questions about just what we should be looking for and how. We approach alien hunting from the perspective of an experimenter engaging in binary classification with some true and confounding positive probability (TPP and CPP). We derive the Bayes factor in such a framework between two competing hypotheses, which we use to classify experiments as either impotent, imperfect or ideal. Similarly, the experimenter can be classified as dogmatic, biased or agnostic. We show how the unbounded explanatory and evasion capability of aliens poses fundamental problems to experiments directly seeking aliens. Instead, we advocate framing the experiments as looking for that outside of known processes, which means the hypotheses we test do not directly concern aliens per se. To connect back to aliens requires a second level of model selection, for which we derive the final odds ratio in a Bayesian framework. This reveals that it is fundamentally impossible to ever establish alien life at some threshold odds ratio, $\mathcal{O}_{\mathrm{crit}}$, unless we deem the prior probability that some as-yet-undiscovered natural process could explain the event is less than $(1+\mathcal{O}_{\mathrm{crit}})^{-1}$. This elucidates how alien hunters need to carefully consider the challenging problem of how probable unknown unknowns are, such as new physics or chemistry, and how it is arguably most fruitful to focus on experiments for which our domain knowledge is thought to be asymptotically complete.

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arXiv2023

RoSETZ: Roman Survey of the Earth Transit Zone -- a SETI-optimized survey for habitable-zone exoplanets

In this White Paper for Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) science, we propose the Roman Survey of the Earth Transit Zone (RoSETZ), a transit search for rocky planets within the habitable zones (HZs) of stars located within the Earth Transit Zone (ETZ). The ETZ holds special interest in the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI) - observers on planets within the ETZ can see Earth as a transiting planet. RoSETZ would augment the Roman Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS) as an additional field located $\sim 5$~degrees away from other GBTDS fields. Our simulations show that RoSETZ alone can find from 120 to 630 Earth-sized HZ planets around K- and M-type hosts, with the range reflecting different survey design assumptions. These yields are 5-20 times the number currently known. Such a sample will transform our knowledge of ``Eta-Earth'' ($\eta_{\oplus}$) -- the occurrence of Earth-sized HZ planets -- and would be the first catalogue of exoplanets selected in a manner optimized according to the Mutual Detectability targetted-SETI strategy. If it can be accommodated alongside the existing GBTDS design, we favour a RoSETZ-Max design that is observed for the duration of the GBTDS. If not, we show that a slimmed-down RoSETZ-Lite design, occupying two GBTDS seasons, would not significantly impact overall GBTDS exoplanet yields, even if time allocated to it had to come from time allocations to other fields. We argue that the angular separation of RoSETZ from other GBTDS fields permits self-calibration of systematic uncertainties that would otherwise hamper exoplanet demographic modelling of both microlensing and transit datasets. Other science possible with RoSETZ data include studies of small solar system bodies and high resolution 3D extinction mapping.

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arXiv2023

An extreme test case for planet formation: a close-in Neptune orbiting an ultracool star

In current theories of planet formation, close-orbiting planets as massive as Neptune are expected to be very rare around low-mass stars. We report the discovery of a Neptune-mass planet orbiting the `ultracool' star LHS 3154, which is nine times less massive than the Sun. The planet's orbital period is 3.7 days and its minimum mass is 13.2 Earth masses, giving it the largest known planet-to-star mass ratio among short-period planets ($<$\,100 days) orbiting ultracool stars. Both the core accretion and gravitational instability theories for planet formation struggle to account for this system. In the core-accretion scenario, in particular, the dust mass of the protoplanetary disk would need to be an order of magnitude higher than typically seen in protoplanetary disk observations of ultracool stars.

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arXiv2022

NEID Reveals that The Young Warm Neptune TOI-2076 b Has a Low Obliquity

TOI-2076 b is a sub-Neptune-sized planet ($R= 2.39 \pm 0.10 {R_\oplus}$) that transits a young ($204 \pm 50 {MYr}$) bright ($V = 9.2$) K-dwarf hosting a system of three transiting planets. Using spectroscopic observations with the NEID spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5 m Telescope, we model the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect of TOI-2076 b, and derive a sky-projected obliquity of $\lambda=-3_{-15}^{+16\:\circ}$. Using the size of the star ($R=0.775 \pm0.015 {R_\odot}$), and the stellar rotation period ($P_{\mathrm{rot}}=7.27\pm0.23$ days), we estimate an obliquity of $\psi=18_{-9}^{+10\:\circ}$ ($\psi < 34^\circ$ at 95\% confidence), demonstrating that TOI-2076 b is on a well-aligned orbit. Simultaneous diffuser-assisted photometry from the 3.5 m Telescope at Apache Point Observatory rules out flares during the transit. TOI-2076 b joins a small but growing sample of young planets in compact multi-planet systems with well-aligned orbits, and is the fourth planet with an age $\lesssim 300$ Myr in a multi-transiting system with an obliquity measurement. The low obliquity of TOI-2076 b and the presence of transit timing variations in the system suggest the TOI-2076 system likely formed via convergent disk migration in an initially well-aligned disk.

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arXiv2022

A Green Bank Telescope search for narrowband technosignatures between 1.1-1.9 GHz during 12 Kepler planetary transits

A growing avenue for determining the prevalence of life beyond Earth is to search for "technosignatures" from extraterrestrial intelligences/agents. Technosignatures require significant energy to be visible across interstellar space and thus intentional signals might be concentrated in frequency, in time, or in space, to be found in mutually obvious places. Therefore, it could be advantageous to search for technosignatures in parts of parameter space that are mutually-derivable to an observer on Earth and a distant transmitter. In this work, we used the L-band (1.1-1.9 GHz) receiver on the Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope (GBT) to perform the first technosignature search pre-synchronized with exoplanet transits, covering 12 Kepler systems. We used the Breakthrough Listen turboSETI pipeline to flag narrowband hits ($\sim$3 Hz) using a maximum drift rate of $\pm$614.4 Hz/s and a signal-to-noise threshold of 5 - the pipeline returned $\sim 3.4 \times 10^5$ apparently-localized features. Visual inspection by a team of citizen scientists ruled out 99.6% of them. Further analysis found 2 signals-of-interest that warrant follow-up, but no technosignatures. If the signals-of-interest are not re-detected in future work, it will imply that the 12 targets in the search are not producing transit-aligned signals from 1.1-1.9 GHz with transmitter powers $>$60 times that of the former Arecibo radar. This search debuts a range of innovative technosignature techniques: citizen science vetting of potential signals-of-interest, a sensitivity-aware search out to extremely high drift rates, a more flexible method of analyzing on-off cadences, and an extremely low signal-to-noise threshold.

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arXiv2022

Opportunities for Technosignature Science in the Astro2020 Report

The Astro2020 report outlines numerous recommendations that could significantly advance technosignature science. Technosignatures refer to any observable manifestations of extraterrestrial technology, and the search for technosignatures is part of the continuum of the astrobiological search for biosignatures. The search for technosignatures is directly relevant to the "World and Suns in Context" theme and "Pathways to Habitable Worlds" program in the Astro2020 report. The relevance of technosignatures was explicitly mentioned in "E1 Report of the Panel on Exoplanets, Astrobiology, and the Solar System," which stated that "life's global impacts on a planet's atmosphere, surface, and temporal behavior may therefore manifest as potentially detectable exoplanet biosignatures, or technosignatures" and that potential technosignatures, much like biosignatures, must be carefully analyzed to mitigate false positives. The connection of technosignatures to this high-level theme and program can be emphasized, as the report makes clear the purpose is to address the question "Are we alone?" This question is also presented in the Explore Science 2020-2024 plan as a driver of NASA's mission. This white paper summarizes the potential technosignature opportunities within the recommendations of the Astro2020 report, should they be implemented by funding agencies. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the relevance of technosignature science to a wide range of missions and urge the scientific community to include the search for technosignatures as part of the stated science justifications for the large and medium programs that include the Infrared/Optical/Ultraviolet space telescope, Extremely Large Telescopes, probe-class far-infrared and X-ray missions, and various facilities in radio astronomy.

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arXiv2021

Eclipse timing the Milky Way's gravitational potential

We show that a small, but \textit{measurable} shift in the eclipse mid-point time of eclipsing binary (EBs) stars of $\sim$ 0.1 seconds over a decade baseline can be used to directly measure the Galactic acceleration of stars in the Milky Way at $\sim$ kpc distances from the Sun. We consider contributions to the period drift rate from dynamical mechanisms other than the Galaxy's gravitational field, and show that the Galactic acceleration can be reliably measured using a sample of $\textit{Kepler}$ EBs with orbital and stellar parameters from the literature. Given the uncertainties on the formulation of tidal decay, our approach here is necessarily approximate, and the contribution from tidal decay is an upper limit assuming the stars are not tidally synchronized. We also use simple analytic relations to search for well-timed sources in the \textit{Kepler} field, and find $\sim$ 70 additional detached EBs with low eccentricities that have estimated timing precision better than 1 second. We illustrate the method with a prototypical, precisely timed EB using an archival \textit{Kepler} light curve and a modern synthetic \textit{HST} light curve (which provides a decade baseline). This novel method establishes a realistic possibility for obtaining fundamental Galactic parameters using eclipse timing to measure Galactic accelerations, along with other emerging new methods, including pulsar timing and extreme precision radial velocity observations. This acceleration signal grows quadratically with time. Therefore, given baselines established in the near-future for distant EBs, we can expect to measure the period drift in the future with space missions like \textit{JWST} and the \textit{Roman Space Telescope}.

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arXiv2021

Potential Habitability as a Stellar Property: Effects of Model Uncertainties and Measurement Precision

Knowledge of a star's evolutionary history combined with estimates of planet occurrence rates allows one to infer its relative quality as a location in the search for biosignatures, and to quantify this intuition using long-term habitability metrics. In this study, we analyse the sensitivity of the biosignature yield metrics formulated by Tuchow & Wright (2020) to uncertainties in observable stellar properties and to model uncertainties. We characterize the uncertainties present in fitting a models to stellar observations by generating a stellar model with known properties and adding synthetic uncertainties in the observable properties. We scale the uncertainty in individual observables and observe the the effects on the precision of properties such as stellar mass, age, and our metrics. To determine model uncertainties we compare four well accepted stellar models using different model physics and see how they vary in terms of the values of our metrics. We determine the ability of future missions to rank target stars according to these metrics, given the current precision to which host star properties can be measured. We show that obtaining independent age constraints decreases both the model and systematic uncertainties in determining these metrics and is the most powerful way to improve assessments of the long-term habitability of planets around low mass stars.

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arXiv2021

The Aligned Orbit of WASP-148b, the Only Known Hot Jupiter with a Nearby Warm Jupiter Companion, from NEID and HIRES

We present spectroscopic measurements of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect for WASP-148b, the only known hot Jupiter with a nearby warm-Jupiter companion, from the WIYN/NEID and Keck/HIRES instruments. This is one of the first scientific results reported from the newly commissioned NEID spectrograph, as well as the second obliquity constraint for a hot Jupiter system with a close-in companion, after WASP-47. WASP-148b is consistent with being in alignment with the sky-projected spin axis of the host star, with $\lambda=-8^{\circ}.2^{{+8^{\circ}.7}}_{-9^{\circ}.7}$. The low obliquity observed in the WASP-148 system is consistent with the orderly-alignment configuration of most compact multi-planet systems around cool stars with obliquity constraints, including our solar system, and may point to an early history for these well-organized systems in which migration and accretion occurred in isolation, with relatively little disturbance. By contrast, previous results have indicated that high-mass and hot stars appear to more commonly host a wide range of misaligned planets: not only single hot Jupiters, but also compact systems with multiple super-Earths. We suggest that, to account for the high rate of spin-orbit misalignments in both compact multi-planet and isolated-hot-Jupiter systems orbiting high-mass and hot stars, spin-orbit misalignments may be caused by distant giant planet perturbers, which are most common around these stellar types.

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arXiv2020

The HD 217107 Planetary System: Twenty Years of Radial Velocity Measurements

The hot Jupiter HD 217107 b was one of the first exoplanets detected using the radial velocity (RV) method, originally reported in the literature in 1999. Today, precise RV measurements of this system span more than 20 years, and there is clear evidence for a longer-period companion, HD 217107 c. Interestingly, both the short-period planet ($P_\mathrm{b}\sim7.13$ d) and long-period planet ($P_\mathrm{c}\sim5059$ d) have significantly eccentric orbits ($e_\mathrm{b}\sim0.13$ and $e_\mathrm{c}\sim0.40$). We present 42 additional RV measurements of this system obtained with the MINERVA telescope array and carry out a joint analysis with previously published RV measurements from four different facilities. We confirm and refine the previously reported orbit of the long-period companion. HD 217107 b is one of a relatively small number of hot Jupiters with an eccentric orbit, opening up the possibility of detecting precession of the planetary orbit due to General Relativistic effects and perturbations from other planets in the system. In this case, the argument of periastron, $\omega$, is predicted to change at the level of $\sim$0.8$^\circ$ century$^{-1}$. Despite the long time baseline of our observations and the high quality of the RV measurements, we are only able to constrain the precession to be $\dot{\omega}<65.9^\circ$ century$^{-1}$. We discuss the limitations of detecting the subtle effects of precession in exoplanet orbits using RV data.

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arXiv2020

Towards a direct measure of the Galactic acceleration

High precision spectrographs can enable not only the discovery of exoplanets, but can also provide a fundamental measurement in Galactic dynamics. Over about ten year baselines, the expected change in the line-of-sight velocity due to the Galaxy's gravitational field for stars at $\sim$ kpc scale distances above the Galactic mid-plane is $\sim$ few - 10 cm/s, and may be detectable by the current generation of high precision spectrographs. Here, we provide theoretical expectations for this measurement based on both static models of the Milky Way and isolated Milky Way simulations, as well from controlled dynamical simulations of the Milky Way interacting with dwarf galaxies. We simulate a population synthesis model to analyze the contribution of planets and binaries to the Galactic acceleration signal. We find that while low-mass, long-period planetary companions are a contaminant to the Galactic acceleration signal, their contribution is very small. Our analysis of $\sim$ ten years of data from the LCES HIRES/Keck precision radial velocity (RV) survey shows that slopes of the RV curves of standard RV stars agree with expectations of the local Galactic acceleration near the Sun within the errors, and that the error in the slope scales inversely as the square root of the number of observations. Thus, we demonstrate that a survey of stars with low intrinsic stellar jitter at kpc distances above the Galactic mid-plane for realistic sample sizes can enable a direct determination of the dark matter density.

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arXiv2020

EarthFinder Probe Mission Concept Study: Characterizing nearby stellar exoplanet systems with Earth-mass analogs for future direct imaging

EarthFinder is a NASA Astrophysics Probe mission concept selected for study as input to the 2020 Astrophysics National Academies Decadal Survey. The EarthFinder concept is based on a dramatic shift in our understanding of how PRV measurements should be made. We propose a new paradigm which brings the high precision, high cadence domain of transit photometry as demonstrated by Kepler and TESS to the challenges of PRV measurements at the cm/s level. This new paradigm takes advantage of: 1) broad wavelength coverage from the UV to NIR which is only possible from space to minimize the effects of stellar activity; 2) extremely compact, highly stable, highly efficient spectrometers (R>150,000) which require the diffraction-limited imaging possible only from space over a broad wavelength range; 3) the revolution in laser-based wavelength standards to ensure cm/s precision over many years; 4) a high cadence observing program which minimizes sampling-induced period aliases; 5) exploiting the absolute flux stability from space for continuum normalization for unprecedented line-by-line analysis not possible from the ground; and 6) focusing on the bright stars which will be the targets of future imaging missions so that EarthFinder can use a ~1.5 m telescope.

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arXiv2020

A Mini-Neptune and a Venus-Zone Planet in the Radius Valley Orbiting the Nearby M2-dwarf TOI-1266: Validation with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder

We report on the validation of two planets orbiting the nearby (36pc) M2 dwarf TOI-1266 observed by the TESS mission. The inner planet is sub-Neptune-sized ($R=2.46 \pm 0.08 R_\oplus$) with an orbital period of 10.9 days. The outer planet has a radius of $1.67_{-0.11}^{+0.09} R_\oplus$ and resides in the exoplanet Radius Valley---the transition region between rocky and gaseous planets. With an orbital period of 18.8 days, the outer planet receives an insolation flux of 2.4 times that of Earth, similar to the insolation of Venus. Using precision near-infrared radial velocities with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder Spectrograph, we place upper mass limits of $15.9 M_\oplus$ and $6.4 M_\oplus$ at 95% confidence for the inner and outer planet, respectively. A more precise mass constraint of planet c, achievable with current RV instruments given the host star brightness (V=12.9, J=9.7), will yield further insights into the dominant processes sculpting the exoplanet Radius Valley.

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arXiv2019

Evidence for He I 10830 \AA~ absorption during the transit of a warm Neptune around the M-dwarf GJ 3470 with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder

Understanding the dynamics and kinematics of out-flowing atmospheres of hot and warm exoplanets is crucial to understanding the origins and evolutionary history of the exoplanets near the evaporation desert. Recently, ground based measurements of the meta-stable Helium atom's resonant absorption at 10830 \AA~has become a powerful probe of the base environment which is driving the outflow of exoplanet atmospheres. We report evidence for the He I 10830 \AA~in absorption (equivalent width $\sim$ $0.012 \pm 0.002$ \AA) in the exosphere of a warm Neptune orbiting the M-dwarf GJ 3470, during three transits using the Habitable Zone Planet Finder (HPF) near infrared spectrograph. This marks the first reported evidence for He I 10830 \AA\, atmospheric absorption for a planet orbiting an M-dwarf. Our detected absorption is broad and its blueshifted wing extends to -36 km/sec, the largest reported in the literature to date. We modelled the state of Helium atoms in the exosphere of GJ3470b based on assumptions on the UV and X-ray flux of GJ 3470, and found our measurement of flux-weighted column density of meta-stable state Helium $(N_{He^2_3S} = 2.4 \times 10^{10} \mathrm{cm^{-2}})$, derived from our transit observations, to be consistent with model, within its uncertainties. The methodology developed here will be useful to study and constrain the atmospheric outflow models of other exoplanets like GJ 3470b which are near the edge of the evaporation desert.

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