arXiv subjects

Javier Garcia-Bernardo

Publications and source records attributed to Javier Garcia-Bernardo.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data

Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents aged 18-45, using survey data and full-population registers. Methods ranged from logistic regression to a large language model and transformers. Predictions were moderately accurate (best F1: register 0.59, survey 0.76); advanced models did not outperform classical ones; and the larger registers did not beat the survey. Simulating the stochastic biology of conception and pregnancy, we estimated a predictive ceiling (survey F1 ~ 0.86-0.94, register 0.88-0.96). Observed performance falls short of this ceiling, implicating imperfect data, methods, and unmodelled chance, while the ceiling itself shows that chance in reproduction alone sets a non-trivial limit on predicting individual lives.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Beyond Parents? Prediction Gaps in University Completion Using Population-Scale Networks and Flexible Machine Learning

How much of children's educational attainment remains predictable from the wider social contexts in which they grow up, once parental background is known? Sociological research places households, schools, neighborhoods, and extended kin at the center of intergenerational reproduction, yet whether these contexts add predictive information beyond parental background is rarely tested directly. This matters because the added value of social contexts helps distinguish whether they operate as independent sources of inequality or as channels through which parental advantage is reproduced. Using population-scale administrative data from Statistics Netherlands, we construct a network linking a full cohort of children aged 11-12 to parents, extended kin, classmates, household members, and neighbors, and predict university completion at ages 24-25. We compare logistic regression and gradient boosting, which use individual-level aggregates of these contexts, with graph neural networks (GNNs) operating directly on the network, interpreting differences in out-of-sample performance as prediction gaps. Parental socioeconomic background captures most predictable variation; even GNNs add little once parents are known. Prediction gaps are largest among children without a registered father, especially girls and those with less-educated mothers. Methodologically, we argue that prediction gaps can support sociological theory-building: small gaps show where current theory-based models already explain what can be measured; large gaps identify where targeted mechanism-focused research is warranted.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Large Language Models Unpack Complex Political Opinions through Target-Stance Extraction

Political polarization emerges from a complex interplay of beliefs about policies, figures, and issues. However, most computational analyses reduce discourse to coarse partisan labels, overlooking how these beliefs interact. This is especially evident in online political conversations, which are often nuanced and cover a wide range of subjects, making it difficult to automatically identify the target of discussion and the opinion expressed toward them. In this study, we investigate whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can address this challenge through Target-Stance Extraction (TSE), a recent natural language processing task that combines target identification and stance detection, enabling more granular analysis of political opinions. For this, we construct a dataset of 1,084 Reddit posts from r/NeutralPolitics, covering 138 distinct political targets and evaluate a range of proprietary and open-source LLMs using zero-shot, few-shot, and context-augmented prompting strategies. Our results show that the best models perform comparably to highly trained human annotators and remain robust on challenging posts with low inter-annotator agreement. These findings demonstrate that LLMs can extract complex political opinions with minimal supervision, offering a scalable tool for computational social science and political text analysis.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Population-Scale Network Embeddings Expose Educational Divides in Network Structure Related to Right-Wing Populist Voting

Administrative registry data can be used to construct population-scale networks whose ties reflect shared social contexts between persons. With machine learning, such networks can be encoded into numerical representations -- embeddings -- that automatically capture an individual's position within the network. We created embeddings for all persons in the Dutch population from a population-scale network that represents five shared contexts: neighborhood, work, family, household, and school. To assess the informativeness of these embeddings, we used them to predict right-wing populist voting. Embeddings alone predicted right-wing populist voting above chance-level but performed worse than individual characteristics. Combining the best subset of embeddings with individual characteristics only slightly improved predictions. After transforming the embeddings to make their dimensions more sparse and orthogonal, we found that one embedding dimension was strongly associated with the outcome. Mapping this dimension back to the population network revealed that differences in educational ties and attainment corresponded to distinct network structures associated with right-wing populist voting. Our study contributes methodologically by demonstrating how population-scale network embeddings can be made interpretable, and substantively by linking structural network differences in education to right-wing populist voting.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Negative Ties Highlight Hidden Extremes in Social Media Polarization

Human interactions in the online world comprise a combination of positive and negative exchanges. These diverse interactions can be captured using signed network representations, where edges take positive or negative weights to indicate the sentiment of the interaction between individuals. Signed networks offer valuable insights into online political polarization by capturing antagonistic interactions and ideological divides on social media platforms. This study analyzes polarization on Meneame, a Spanish social media platform that facilitates engagement with news stories through comments and voting. Using a dual-method approach, Signed Hamiltonian Eigenvector Embedding for Proximity (SHEEP) for signed networks and Correspondence Analysis (CA) for unsigned networks, we investigate how including negative ties enhances the understanding of structural polarization levels across different conversation topics on the platform. While the unsigned Meneame network effectively delineates ideological communities, only by incorporating negative ties can we identify ideologically extreme users who engage in antagonistic behaviors: without them, the most extreme users remain indistinguishable from their less confrontational ideological peers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Community detection in bipartite signed networks is highly dependent on parameter choice

Decision-making processes often involve voting. Human interactions with exogenous entities such as legislations or products can be effectively modeled as two-mode (bipartite) signed networks-where people can either vote positively, negatively, or abstain from voting on the entities. Detecting communities in such networks could help us understand underlying properties: for example ideological camps or consumer preferences. While community detection is an established practice separately for bipartite and signed networks, it remains largely unexplored in the case of bipartite signed networks. In this paper, we systematically evaluate the efficacy of community detection methods on projected bipartite signed networks using a synthetic benchmark and real-world datasets. Our findings reveal that when no communities are present in the data, these methods often recover spurious user communities. When communities are present, the algorithms exhibit promising performance, although their performance is highly susceptible to parameter choice. This indicates that researchers using community detection methods in the context of bipartite signed networks should not take the communities found at face value: it is essential to assess the robustness of parameter choices or perform domain-specific external validation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Avoiding Overfitting in Variable-Order Markov Models: a Cross-Validation Approach

Higher$\text{-}$order Markov chain models are widely used to represent agent transitions in dynamic systems, such as passengers in transport networks. They capture transitions in complex systems by considering not only the current state but also the path of previously visited states. For example, the likelihood of train passengers traveling from Paris (current state) to Rome could increase significantly if their journey originated in Italy (prior state). Although this approach provides a more faithful representation of the system than first$\text{-}$order models, we find that commonly used methods$-$relying on Kullback$\text{-}$Leibler divergence$-$frequently overfit the data, mistaking fluctuations for higher$\text{-}$order dependencies and undermining forecasts and resource allocation. Here, we introduce DIVOP (Detection of Informative Variable$\text{-}$Order Paths), an algorithm that employs cross$\text{-}$validation to robustly distinguish meaningful higher$\text{-}$order dependencies from noise. In both synthetic and real$\text{-}$world datasets, DIVOP outperforms two state$\text{-}$of$\text{-}$the$\text{-}$art algorithms by achieving higher precision, recall, and sparser representations of the underlying dynamics. When applied to global corporate ownership data, DIVOP reveals that tax havens appear in 82$\%$ of all significant higher$\text{-}$order dependencies, underscoring their outsized influence in corporate networks. By mitigating overfitting, DIVOP enables more reliable multi$\text{-}$step predictions and decision$\text{-}$making, paving the way toward deeper insights into the hidden structures that drive modern interconnected systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

The Impact of School and Family Networks on COVID-19 Infections Among Dutch Students: A Study Using Population-Level Registry Data

Understanding the impact of different social interactions is key to improving epidemic models. Here, we use extensive registry data -- including PCR test results and population-level networks -- to investigate the impact of school, family, and other social contacts on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Netherlands (June 2020--October 2021). We isolate and compare different contexts of potential SARS-CoV-2 transmission by matching pairs of students based on their attendance at the same or different primary school (in 2020) and secondary school (in 2021) and their geographic proximity. We then calculated the probability of temporally associated infections -- i.e. the probability of both students testing positive within a 14-day period. Our results highlight the relative importance of household and family transmission in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 compared to school settings. The probability of temporally associated infections for siblings and parent-child pairs living in the same household was 22.6--23.2\%, and 4.7--7.9\% for family members living in different household. In contrast, the probability of temporally associated infections was 0.52\% for pairs of students living nearby but not attending the same primary or secondary school, 0.66\% for pairs attending different secondary schools but having attended the same primary school, and 1.65\% for pairs attending the same secondary school. Finally, we used multilevel regression analyses to examine how individual, school, and geographic factors contribute to transmission risk. We found that the largest differences in transmission probabilities were due to unobserved individual (60\%) and school-level (35\%) factors. Only a small proportion (3\%) could be attributed to geographic proximity of students or to school size, denomination, or the median income of the school area.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Combining the Strengths of Dutch Survey and Register Data in a Data Challenge to Predict Fertility (PreFer)

The social sciences have produced an impressive body of research on determinants of fertility outcomes, or whether and when people have children. However, the strength of these determinants and underlying theories are rarely evaluated on their predictive ability on new data. This prevents us from systematically comparing studies, hindering the evaluation and accumulation of knowledge. In this paper, we present two datasets which can be used to study the predictability of fertility outcomes in the Netherlands. One dataset is based on the LISS panel, a longitudinal survey which includes thousands of variables on a wide range of topics, including individual preferences and values. The other is based on the Dutch register data which lacks attitudinal data but includes detailed information about the life courses of millions of Dutch residents. We provide information about the datasets and the samples, and describe the fertility outcome of interest. We also introduce the fertility prediction data challenge PreFer which is based on these datasets and will start in Spring 2024. We outline the ways in which measuring the predictability of fertility outcomes using these datasets and combining their strengths in the data challenge can advance our understanding of fertility behaviour and computational social science. We further provide details for participants on how to take part in the data challenge.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Profit Shifting of Multinational Corporations Worldwide

We exploit the new country-by-country reporting data of multinational corporations, with unparalleled country coverage, to reveal the distributional consequences of profit shifting. We estimate that multinational corporations worldwide shifted over \$850 billion in profits in 2017, primarily to countries with effective tax rates below 10\%. Countries with lower incomes lose a larger share of their total tax revenue due to profit shifting. We further show that a logarithmic function is better suited for capturing the non-linear relationship between profits and tax rates than linear or quadratic functions. Our findings highlight effective tax rates' importance for profit shifting and tax reforms.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Uncovering the Size of the Illegal Corporate Service Provider Industry in the Netherlands: a Network Approach

Economic crimes such as money laundering, terrorism financing, tax evasion or corruption almost invariably involve the use of a corporate entity. Such entities are regularly incorporated and managed by corporate services providers (CSPs). Given this potential for enabling economic crime, the CSP industry in the Netherlands is heavily regulated and CSPs require a license to operate. Operating without a licence is illegal. In this paper, we estimate the size of the illegal CSP sector in the Netherlands. For this, we develop a classification method to detect potentially illegal CSPs based on their similarity with licensed CSPs. Similarity is computed based on their position within the network of directors, companies and addresses, and the characteristics of such entities. We manually annotate a sample of the potential illegal CSPs and estimate that illegal CSPs constitute 31--51\% of the total number of CSPs and manage 19--27\% of all companies managed by CSPs. Our analysis provides a tool to regulators to improve detection and prevention of economic crime, and can be extended to the estimation of other illegal activities.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Uncovering Offshore Financial Centers: Conduits and Sinks in the Global Corporate Ownership Network

Multinational corporations use highly complex structures of parents and subsidiaries to organize their operations and ownership. Offshore Financial Centers (OFCs) facilitate these structures through low taxation and lenient regulation, but are increasingly under scrutiny, for instance for enabling tax avoidance. Therefore, the identification of OFC jurisdictions has become a politicized and contested issue. We introduce a novel data-driven approach for identifying OFCs based on the global corporate ownership network, in which over 98 million firms (nodes) are connected through 71 million ownership relations. This granular firm-level network data uniquely allows identifying both sink-OFCs and conduit-OFCs. Sink-OFCs attract and retain foreign capital while conduit-OFCs are attractive intermediate destinations in the routing of international investments and enable the transfer of capital without taxation. We identify 24 sink-OFCs. In addition, a small set of five countries -- the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Singapore and Switzerland -- canalize the majority of corporate offshore investment as conduit-OFCs. Each conduit jurisdiction is specialized in a geographical area and there is significant specialization based on industrial sectors. Against the idea of OFCs as exotic small islands that cannot be regulated, we show that many sink and conduit-OFCs are highly developed countries.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

The Effects of Data Quality on the Analysis of Corporate Board Interlock Networks

Nowadays, social networks of ever increasing size are studied by researchers from a range of disciplines. The data underlying these networks is often automatically gathered from API's, websites or existing databases. As a result, the quality of this data is typically not manually validated, and the resulting networks may be based on false, biased or incomplete data. In this paper, we investigate the effect of data quality issues on the analysis of large networks. We focus on the global board interlock network, in which nodes represent firms across the globe, and edges model social ties between firms -- shared board members holding a position at both firms. First, we demonstrate how we can automatically assess the completeness of a large dataset of 160 million firms, in which data is missing not at random. Second, we present a novel method to increase the accuracy of the entries in our data. By comparing the expected and empirical characteristics of the resulting network topology, we develop a technique that automatically prunes and merges duplicate nodes and edges. Third, we use a case study of the board interlock network of Sweden to show how poor quality data results in incorrect network topologies, biased centrality values and abnormal influence spread under a well-known diffusion model. Finally, we demonstrate how our data quality assessment methods help restore the correct network structure, ultimately allowing us to derive meaningful and correct results from analyzing the network.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Where is the global corporate elite? A large-scale network study of local and nonlocal interlocking directorates

Business elites reconfigure their locus of organization over time, from the city level, to the national level, and beyond. We ask what the current level of elite organization is and propose a novel theoretical and empirical approach to answer this question. Building on the universal distinction between local and nonlocal ties we use network analysis and community detection to dissect the global network of interlocking directorates among over five million firms. We find that elite orientation is indeed changing from the national to the transnational plane, but we register a considerable heterogeneity across different regions in the world. In some regions the business communities are organized along national borders, whereas in other areas the locus of organization is at the city level or international level. London dominates the global corporate elite network. Our findings underscore that the study of corporate elites requires an approach that is sensitive to levels of organization that go beyond the confines of nation states.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2015

Quantitative patterns in drone wars

Attacks by drones (i.e., unmanned combat air vehicles) continue to generate heated political and ethical debates. Here we examine the quantitative nature of drone attacks, focusing on how their intensity and frequency compare with that of other forms of human conflict. Instead of the power-law distribution found recently for insurgent and terrorist attacks, the severity of attacks is more akin to lognormal and exponential distributions, suggesting that the dynamics underlying drone attacks lie beyond these other forms of human conflict. We find that the pattern in the timing of attacks is consistent with one side having almost complete control, an important if expected result. We show that these novel features can be reproduced and understood using a generative mathematical model in which resource allocation to the dominant side is regulated through a feedback loop.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Evolving Modular Genetic Regulatory Networks with a Recursive, Top-Down Approach

Being able to design genetic regulatory networks (GRNs) to achieve a desired cellular function is one of the main goals of synthetic biology. However, determining minimal GRNs that produce desired time-series behaviors is non-trivial. In this paper, we propose a 'top-down' approach to evolving small GRNs and then use these to recursively boot-strap the identification of larger, more complex, modular GRNs. We start with relatively dense GRNs and then use differential evolution (DE) to evolve interaction coefficients. When the target dynamical behavior is found embedded in a dense GRN, we narrow the focus of the search and begin aggressively pruning out excess interactions at the end of each generation. We first show that the method can quickly rediscover known small GRNs for a toggle switch and an oscillatory circuit. Next we include these GRNs as non-evolvable subnetworks in the subsequent evolution of more complex, modular GRNs. Successful solutions found in canonical DE where we truncated small interactions to zero, with or without an interaction penalty term, invariably contained many excess interactions. In contrast, by incorporating aggressive pruning and the penalty term, the DE was able to find minimal or nearly minimal GRNs in all test problems.

cs.CE↗