arXiv subjects

Jean-François Godbout

Publications and source records attributed to Jean-François Godbout.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Large language models can effectively convince people to believe conspiracies

Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be persuasive across a variety of contexts. But it remains unclear whether this persuasive power advantages accuracy, or if bad actors can just as easily use LLMs to promote misbeliefs. Here, we investigate this question across four experiments in which participants (N = 3996 Americans) discussed a conspiracy theory they were uncertain about with an LLM we instructed to either argue against ("debunking") or for ("bunking") that conspiracy. Across several frontier models (with standard guardrails but prompted to allow lying), we did not find consistent evidence of a truth advantage: the LLMs were able to both substantially increase and decrease average conspiracy belief, and participants in the bunking condition rated the LLM as more informative and collaborative, and reported greater trust in AI, than those who were in the debunking condition. More encouragingly, however, debunking induced more large changes in belief, and subsequent corrections were able to reverse the bunking effect. Furthermore, simply prompting the model to only provide accurate information dramatically reduced bunking effectiveness, and one powerful frontier model (GPT 5.2) almost entirely refused to promote conspiracies, suggesting that it is possible for the right guardrails to favor accurate beliefs. Finally, we did find a stark truth asymmetry in the context of information sharing: debunking had a large positive impact on mock social media posts composed by participants, while bunking had little effect. Overall, our findings show that people are not inherently less susceptible to AI that misleads than to AI that informs, but that potential technical solutions exist to mitigate this risk.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

CrediBench: Building Web-Scale Network Datasets for Information Integrity

Automatically assessing the credibility of online sources presents an invaluable tool for navigating today's information ecosystem. However, existing approaches either depend on scarce and costly human annotations, or focus exclusively on assessments at the level of individual claims. Misinformation often spreads via interlinked web domains, whose connections evolve over time. Focusing on claims alone ignores these structural and temporal credibility signals evident in the changing web topology. Existing datasets fail to capture these central modalities in web domain credibility prediction: namely, internet topology, temporality and text (webpage) content. To address this gap, we present CrediBench, a dataset containing eights months of web graph data; of which we analyze the three months surrounding the 2024 U.S. federal elections, a time of heightened misinformation propagation online. Each monthly snapshot contains over 40 million nodes, their scraped webpage content, and over 1 billion hyperlink edges. CrediBench supports credibility prediction as both a regression (continuous credibility score) and a binary classification task (credible or not). For classification, we curate a novel binary label set containing 662,575 web domains labelled for boolean credibility, spanning four areas (misinformation, crowd-sourced, malware and phishing). Our empirical experiments support that all task modalities-graph, text and time-contribute significantly to achieving the best performance. In particular, our multi-modal regression model trained on CrediBench outperforms other configurations and existing baselines, decreasing Mean Average Error from 0.162 to 0.107 on the regression task, while the multi-modal classifier improves accuracy from 56% to 85% on the classification one. CrediBench, our proposed web-scale multi-modal dataset, is available on Huggingface for future research.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

EASE Configuration Facilitates A Reproducible Science of LLM Social Simulations

LLMs are increasingly deployed to simulate social interactions, yet many of the existing simulators remain ad hoc and monolithic. This lack of architectural standardization prevents reproducible research and complicates downstream evaluation. We advance a rigorous science of LLM-based multi-agent simulation by modularizing core components into Environments, Agents, Simulation engines, and Evaluation metrics (EASE). We demonstrate the utility of EASE configuration by wrapping it in an experimental study schema for orchestrating workflows centered around answering explicit research questions in generated scenarios. We contribute SiliSocS, an open-source, research-ready Silicon Society Sandbox implementing a study-structured EASE configuration to enable highly configurable and reproducible LLM-based social simulations. Using SiliSocS and EASE, we present three case studies, showcasing the system's comprehensive assessment of existing questions, ability to dive deeper into complex questions, and elaboration of existing studies, respectively. Together, these case studies highlight the limitations of current modeling approaches and isolate the impacts of design choices on key results.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

The $\textit{Silicon Society}$ Cookbook: Design Space of LLM-based Social Simulations

Studies attempting to simulate human behavior with $\textit{Silicon Societies}$ grow in numbers while LLM-only social networks have started appearing outside of controlled settings. However, the design space of these networks remains under-studied, which contributes to a gap in validating model realism. To enable future works to make more informed design decisions, we perform a systematic analysis of the consequences and interactions of key design choices in simulated social networks, including the choice of base model used to model individual agents, and how they are connected to each other. Using surveys as a proxy for agent opinions, our findings suggest that the geometry of the design space is non-trivial, with some parameters behaving in additive ways while others display more complex interactions. In particular, the choice of the base LLM is the most important variable impacting the simulation outcomes.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Deepfakes in the 2025 Canadian Election: Prevalence, Partisanship, and Platform Dynamics

Concerns about AI-generated political content are growing, yet there is limited empirical evidence on how deepfakes actually appear and circulate across social platforms during major events in democratic countries. In this study, we present one of the first in-depth analyses of how these realistic synthetic media shape the political landscape online, focusing specifically on the 2025 Canadian federal election. By analyzing 187,778 posts from X, Bluesky, and Reddit with a high-accuracy detection framework trained on a diverse set of modern generative models, we find that 5.86% of election-related images were deepfakes. Right-leaning accounts shared them more frequently, with 8.66% of their posted images flagged compared to 4.42% for left-leaning users, often with defamatory or conspiratorial intent. Yet, most detected deepfakes were benign or non-political, and harmful ones drew little attention, accounting for only 0.12% of all views on X. Overall, deepfakes were present in the election conversation, but their reach was modest, and realistic fabricated images, although less common, drew higher engagement, highlighting growing concerns about their potential misuse.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

OpenFake: An Open Dataset and Platform Toward Real-World Deepfake Detection

Deepfakes, synthetic media created using advanced AI techniques, pose a growing threat to information integrity, particularly in politically sensitive contexts. This challenge is amplified by the increasing realism of modern generative models, which our human perception study confirms are often indistinguishable from real images. Yet, existing deepfake detection benchmarks rely on outdated generators or narrowly scoped datasets (e.g., single-face imagery), limiting their utility for real-world detection. To address these gaps, we present OpenFake, a large politically grounded dataset specifically crafted for benchmarking against modern generative models with high realism, and designed to remain extensible through an innovative crowdsourced adversarial platform that continually integrates new hard examples. OpenFake comprises nearly four million total images: three million real images paired with descriptive captions and almost one million synthetic counterparts from state-of-the-art proprietary and open-source models. Detectors trained on OpenFake achieve near-perfect in-distribution performance, strong generalization to unseen generators, and high accuracy on a curated in-the-wild social media test set, significantly outperforming models trained on existing datasets. Overall, we demonstrate that with high-quality and continually updated benchmarks, automatic deepfake detection is both feasible and effective in real-world settings.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

$\texttt{BluePrint}$: A Social Media User Dataset for LLM Persona Evaluation and Training

Large language models (LLMs) offer promising capabilities for simulating social media dynamics at scale, enabling studies that would be ethically or logistically challenging with human subjects. However, the field lacks standardized data resources for fine-tuning and evaluating LLMs as realistic social media agents. We address this gap by introducing SIMPACT, the SIMulation-oriented Persona and Action Capture Toolkit, a privacy respecting framework for constructing behaviorally-grounded social media datasets suitable for training agent models. We formulate next-action prediction as a task for training and evaluating LLM-based agents and introduce metrics at both the cluster and population levels to assess behavioral fidelity and stylistic realism. As a concrete implementation, we release BluePrint, a large-scale dataset built from public Bluesky data focused on political discourse. BluePrint clusters anonymized users into personas of aggregated behaviours, capturing authentic engagement patterns while safeguarding privacy through pseudonymization and removal of personally identifiable information. The dataset includes a sizable action set of 12 social media interaction types (likes, replies, reposts, etc.), each instance tied to the posting activity preceding it. This supports the development of agents that use context-dependence, not only in the language, but also in the interaction behaviours of social media to model social media users. By standardizing data and evaluation protocols, SIMPACT provides a foundation for advancing rigorous, ethically responsible social media simulations. BluePrint serves as both an evaluation benchmark for political discourse modeling and a template for building domain specific datasets to study challenges such as misinformation and polarization.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

A Guide to Misinformation Detection Data and Evaluation

Misinformation is a complex societal issue, and mitigating solutions are difficult to create due to data deficiencies. To address this, we have curated the largest collection of (mis)information datasets in the literature, totaling 75. From these, we evaluated the quality of 36 datasets that consist of statements or claims, as well as the 9 datasets that consist of data in purely paragraph form. We assess these datasets to identify those with solid foundations for empirical work and those with flaws that could result in misleading and non-generalizable results, such as spurious correlations, or examples that are ambiguous or otherwise impossible to assess for veracity. We find the latter issue is particularly severe and affects most datasets in the literature. We further provide state-of-the-art baselines on all these datasets, but show that regardless of label quality, categorical labels may no longer give an accurate evaluation of detection model performance. Finally, we propose and highlight Evaluation Quality Assurance (EQA) as a tool to guide the field toward systemic solutions rather than inadvertently propagating issues in evaluation. Overall, this guide aims to provide a roadmap for higher quality data and better grounded evaluations, ultimately improving research in misinformation detection. All datasets and other artifacts are available at https://misinfo-datasets.complexdatalab.com/.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Veracity: An Open-Source AI Fact-Checking System

The proliferation of misinformation poses a significant threat to society, exacerbated by the capabilities of generative AI. This demo paper introduces Veracity, an open-source AI system designed to empower individuals to combat misinformation through transparent and accessible fact-checking. Veracity leverages the synergy between Large Language Models (LLMs) and web retrieval agents to analyze user-submitted claims and provide grounded veracity assessments with intuitive explanations. Key features include multilingual support, numerical scoring of claim veracity, and an interactive interface inspired by familiar messaging applications. This paper will showcase Veracity's ability to not only detect misinformation but also explain its reasoning, fostering media literacy and promoting a more informed society.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Epistemic Integrity in Large Language Models

Large language models are increasingly relied upon as sources of information, but their propensity for generating false or misleading statements with high confidence poses risks for users and society. In this paper, we confront the critical problem of epistemic miscalibration $\unicode{x2013}$ where a model's linguistic assertiveness fails to reflect its true internal certainty. We introduce a new human-labeled dataset and a novel method for measuring the linguistic assertiveness of Large Language Models (LLMs) which cuts error rates by over 50% relative to previous benchmarks. Validated across multiple datasets, our method reveals a stark misalignment between how confidently models linguistically present information and their actual accuracy. Further human evaluations confirm the severity of this miscalibration. This evidence underscores the urgent risk of the overstated certainty LLMs hold which may mislead users on a massive scale. Our framework provides a crucial step forward in diagnosing this miscalibration, offering a path towards correcting it and more trustworthy AI across domains.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

From Intuition to Understanding: Using AI Peers to Overcome Physics Misconceptions

Generative AI has the potential to transform personalization and accessibility of education. However, it raises serious concerns about accuracy and helping students become independent critical thinkers. In this study, we designed a helpful AI "Peer" to help students correct fundamental physics misconceptions related to Newtonian mechanic concepts. In contrast to approaches that seek near-perfect accuracy to create an authoritative AI tutor or teacher, we directly inform students that this AI can answer up to 40% of questions incorrectly. In a randomized controlled trial with 165 students, those who engaged in targeted dialogue with the AI Peer achieved post-test scores that were, on average, 10.5 percentage points higher - with over 20 percentage points higher normalized gain - than a control group that discussed physics history. Qualitative feedback indicated that 91% of the treatment group's AI interactions were rated as helpful. Furthermore, by comparing student performance on pre- and post-test questions about the same concept, along with experts' annotations of the AI interactions, we find initial evidence suggesting the improvement in performance does not depend on the correctness of the AI. With further research, the AI Peer paradigm described here could open new possibilities for how we learn, adapt to, and grow with AI.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Online Influence Campaigns: Strategies and Vulnerabilities

In order to combat the creation and spread of harmful content online, this paper defines and contextualizes the concept of inauthentic, societal-scale manipulation by malicious actors. We review the literature on societally harmful content and how it proliferates to analyze the manipulation strategies used by such actors and the vulnerabilities they target. We also provide an overview of three case studies of extensive manipulation campaigns to emphasize the severity of the problem. We then address the role that Artificial Intelligence plays in the development and dissemination of harmful content, and how its evolution presents new threats to societal cohesion for countries across the globe. Our survey aims to increase our understanding of not just particular aspects of these threats, but also the strategies underlying their deployment, so we can effectively prepare for the evolving cybersecurity landscape.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

A Simulation System Towards Solving Societal-Scale Manipulation

The rise of AI-driven manipulation poses significant risks to societal trust and democratic processes. Yet, studying these effects in real-world settings at scale is ethically and logistically impractical, highlighting a need for simulation tools that can model these dynamics in controlled settings to enable experimentation with possible defenses. We present a simulation environment designed to address this. We elaborate upon the Concordia framework that simulates offline, `real life' activity by adding online interactions to the simulation through social media with the integration of a Mastodon server. We improve simulation efficiency and information flow, and add a set of measurement tools, particularly longitudinal surveys. We demonstrate the simulator with a tailored example in which we track agents' political positions and show how partisan manipulation of agents can affect election results.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Combining Confidence Elicitation and Sample-based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Misinformation Mitigation

Large Language Models have emerged as prime candidates to tackle misinformation mitigation. However, existing approaches struggle with hallucinations and overconfident predictions. We propose an uncertainty quantification framework that leverages both direct confidence elicitation and sampled-based consistency methods to provide better calibration for NLP misinformation mitigation solutions. We first investigate the calibration of sample-based consistency methods that exploit distinct features of consistency across sample sizes and stochastic levels. Next, we evaluate the performance and distributional shift of a robust numeric verbalization prompt across single vs. two-step confidence elicitation procedure. We also compare the performance of the same prompt with different versions of GPT and different numerical scales. Finally, we combine the sample-based consistency and verbalized methods to propose a hybrid framework that yields a better uncertainty estimation for GPT models. Overall, our work proposes novel uncertainty quantification methods that will improve the reliability of Large Language Models in misinformation mitigation applications.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Uncertainty Resolution in Misinformation Detection

Misinformation poses a variety of risks, such as undermining public trust and distorting factual discourse. Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 have been shown effective in mitigating misinformation, particularly in handling statements where enough context is provided. However, they struggle to assess ambiguous or context-deficient statements accurately. This work introduces a new method to resolve uncertainty in such statements. We propose a framework to categorize missing information and publish category labels for the LIAR-New dataset, which is adaptable to cross-domain content with missing information. We then leverage this framework to generate effective user queries for missing context. Compared to baselines, our method improves the rate at which generated questions are answerable by the user by 38 percentage points and classification performance by over 10 percentage points macro F1. Thus, this approach may provide a valuable component for future misinformation mitigation pipelines.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Towards Reliable Misinformation Mitigation: Generalization, Uncertainty, and GPT-4

Misinformation poses a critical societal challenge, and current approaches have yet to produce an effective solution. We propose focusing on generalization, uncertainty, and how to leverage recent large language models, in order to create more practical tools to evaluate information veracity in contexts where perfect classification is impossible. We first demonstrate that GPT-4 can outperform prior methods in multiple settings and languages. Next, we explore generalization, revealing that GPT-4 and RoBERTa-large exhibit differences in failure modes. Third, we propose techniques to handle uncertainty that can detect impossible examples and strongly improve outcomes. We also discuss results on other language models, temperature, prompting, versioning, explainability, and web retrieval, each one providing practical insights and directions for future research. Finally, we publish the LIAR-New dataset with novel paired English and French misinformation data and Possibility labels that indicate if there is sufficient context for veracity evaluation. Overall, this research lays the groundwork for future tools that can drive real-world progress to combat misinformation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Party Prediction for Twitter

A large number of studies on social media compare the behaviour of users from different political parties. As a basic step, they employ a predictive model for inferring their political affiliation. The accuracy of this model can change the conclusions of a downstream analysis significantly, yet the choice between different models seems to be made arbitrarily. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey and an empirical comparison of the current party prediction practices and propose several new approaches which are competitive with or outperform state-of-the-art methods, yet require less computational resources. Party prediction models rely on the content generated by the users (e.g., tweet texts), the relations they have (e.g., who they follow), or their activities and interactions (e.g., which tweets they like). We examine all of these and compare their signal strength for the party prediction task. This paper lets the practitioner select from a wide range of data types that all give strong performance. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on different aspects of these methods, such as data collection speed and transfer capabilities, which can provide further insights for both applied and methodological research.

cs.SI↗