SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Jean-Louis Arcand

Publications and source records attributed to Jean-Louis Arcand.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve explicitly for stationary and non-stationary exchange rate paths, and show how both depend continuously on the distance to the exit time and the target zone bands. This enables us to show how central bank intervention is endogenous to both the distance of the fundamental to the band and the underlying risk. We discuss how the feasibility of the target zone is shaped by the set horizon and the degree of underlying risk, and we determine a minimum time at which the required parity can be reached. We prove that increases in risk after a certain threshold can yield endogenous regime shifts where the ``honeymoon effects'' vanish and the target zone cannot be feasibly maintained. None of these results can be obtained by means of the standard Gaussian or affine models. Numerical simulations allow us to recover all the exchange rate densities established in the target zone literature. The generality of our framework has important policy implications for modern target zone arrangements.

econ.GN

Increasing Risk: Dynamic Mean-Preserving Spreads

We extend the celebrated Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970) definition of Mean-Preserving Spreads to a dynamic framework. We adapt the original integral conditions to transition probability densities, and give sufficient conditions for their satisfaction. We then prove that a specific nonlinear scalar diffusion process, super-diffusive ballistic noise, is the unique process that satisfies the integral conditions among a broad class of processes. This process can be generated by a random superposition of linear Markov processes with constant drifts. This exceptionally simple representation enables us to systematically revisit, by means of the properties of Dynamic Mean-Preserving Spreads, four workhorse economic models originally based on White Gaussian Noise.

math.PR