arXiv subjects

Jean-Marc Bardet

Publications and source records attributed to Jean-Marc Bardet.

30 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2010

Detecting multiple change-points in general causal time series using penalized quasi-likelihood

This paper is devoted to the off-line multiple change-point detection in a semiparametric framework. The time series is supposed to belong to a large class of models including AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$),... models where the coefficients change at each instant of breaks. The different unknown parameters (number of changes, change dates and parameters of successive models) are estimated using a penalized contrast built on conditional quasi-likelihood. Under Lipshitzian conditions on the model, the consistency of the estimator is proved when the moment order $r$ of the process satisfies $r\geq 2$. If $r\geq 4$, the same convergence rates for the estimators than in the case of independent random variables are obtained. The particular cases of AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$) and TARCH($\infty$) show that our method notably improves the existing results.

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arXiv2010

Measuring the roughness of random paths by increment ratios

A statistic based on increment ratios (IR) and related to zero crossings of increment sequence is defined and studied for measuring the roughness of random paths. The main advantages of this statistic are robustness to smooth additive and multiplicative trends and applicability to infinite variance processes. The existence of the IR statistic limit (called the IR-roughness below) is closely related to the existence of a tangent process. Three particular cases where the IR-roughness exists and is explicitly computed are considered. Firstly, for a diffusion process with smooth diffusion and drift coefficients, the IR-roughness coincides with the IR-roughness of a Brownian motion and its convergence rate is obtained. Secondly, the case of rough Gaussian processes is studied in detail under general assumptions which do not require stationarity conditions. Thirdly, the IR-roughness of a Lévy process with $α-$stable tangent process is established and can be used to estimate the fractional parameter $α\in (0,2)$ following a central limit theorem.

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arXiv2009

A nonparametric estimator of the spectral density of a continuous-time Gaussian process observed at random times

In numerous applications data are observed at random times and an estimated graph of the spectral density may be relevant for characterizing and explaining phenomena. By using a wavelet analysis, one derives a nonparametric estimator of the spectral density of a Gaussian process with stationary increments (or a stationary Gaussian process) from the observation of one path at random discrete times. For every positive frequency, this estimator is proved to satisfy a central limit theorem with a convergence rate depending on the roughness of the process and the moment of random durations between successive observations. In the case of stationary Gaussian processes, one can compare this estimator with estimators based on the empirical periodogram. Both estimators reach the same optimal rate of convergence, but the estimator based on wavelet analysis converges for a different class of random times. Simulation examples and application to biological data are also provided.

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arXiv2008

Detecting abrupt changes of the long-range dependence or the self-similarity of a Gaussian process

In this paper, an estimator of $m$ instants ($m$ is known) of abrupt changes of the parameter of long-range dependence or self-similarity is proved to satisfy a limit theorem with an explicit convergence rate for a sample of a Gaussian process. In each estimated zone where the parameter is supposed not to change, a central limit theorem is established for the parameter's (of long-range dependence, self-similarity) estimator and a goodness-of-fit test is also built. {\it To cite this article: J.M. Bardet, I. Kammoun, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 340 (2007).}

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arXiv2008

A new stochastic process to model Heart Rate series during exhaustive run and an estimator of its fractality parameter

In order to interpret and explain the physiological signal behaviors, it can be interesting to find some constants among the fluctuations of these data during all the effort or during different stages of the race (which can be detected using a change points detection method). Several recent papers have proposed the long-range dependence (Hurst) parameter as such a constant. However, their results induce two main problems. Firstly, DFA method is usually applied for estimating this parameter. Clearly, such a method does not provide the most efficient estimator and moreover it is not at all robust even in the case of smooth trends. Secondly, this method often gives estimated Hurst parameters larger than 1, which is the larger possible value for long memory stationary processes. In this article we propose solutions for both these problems and we define a new model allowing such estimated parameters.

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arXiv2008

Estimation non-paramétrique de la densité spectrale d'un processus gaussien échantillonné aléatoirement

From a wavelet analysis, one derives a nonparametrical estimator for the spectral density of a Gaussian process with stationary increments. First, the idealistic case of a continuous time path of the process is considered. A punctual Central Limit Theorem (CLT) and an estimation of the Mean Integrate Square Error (MISE) are established. Next, to fit the applications, one considers the case where one observes a path at random times. One built a second estimator obtained by replacing the wavelet coefficients by their discretizations. A second CLT and the corresponding estimation of the MISE are provided. Finally, simulation results and an application on the heartbeat time series of marathon runners are presented.

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arXiv2008

Adaptive wavelet based estimator of the memory parameter for stationary Gaussian processes

This work is intended as a contribution to a wavelet-based adaptive estimator of the memory parameter in the classical semi-parametric framework for Gaussian stationary processes. In particular we introduce and develop the choice of a data-driven optimal bandwidth. Moreover, we establish a central limit theorem for the estimator of the memory parameter with the minimax rate of convergence (up to a logarithm factor). The quality of the estimators are attested by simulations.

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arXiv2007

Detecting changes in the fluctuations of a Gaussian process and an application to heartbeat time series

The aim of this paper is first the detection of multiple abrupt changes of the long-range dependence (respectively self-similarity, local fractality) parameters from a sample of a Gaussian stationary times series (respectively time series, continuous-time process having stationary increments). The estimator of the $m$ change instants (the number $m$ is supposed to be known) is proved to satisfied a limit theorem with an explicit convergence rate. Moreover, a central limit theorem is established for an estimator of each long-range dependence (respectively self-similarity, local fractality) parameter. Finally, a goodness-of-fit test is also built in each time domain without change and proved to asymptotically follow a Khi-square distribution. Such statistics are applied to heart rate data of marathon's runners and lead to interesting conclusions.

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arXiv2007

Asymptotic normality of the Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimator for multidimensional causal processes

Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE) are given for a general class of multidimensional causal processes. For particular cases already studied in the literature (for instance univariate or multivariate GARCH, ARCH, ARMA-GARCH processes) the assumptions required for establishing these results are often weaker than existing conditions. The QMLE asymptotic behavior is also given for numerous new examples of univariate or multivariate processes (for instance TARCH or NLARCH processes).

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arXiv2007

Dependent Lindeberg central limit theorem and some applications

In this paper, a very useful lemma (in two versions) is proved: it simplifies notably the essential step to establish a Lindeberg central limit theorem for dependent processes. Then, applying this lemma to weakly dependent processes introduced in Doukhan and Louhichi (1999), a new central limit theorem is obtained for sample mean or kernel density estimator. Moreover, by using the subsampling, extensions under weaker assumptions of these central limit theorems are provided. All the usual causal or non causal time series: Gaussian, associated, linear, ARCH($\infty$), bilinear, Volterra processes,$...$, enter this frame.

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arXiv2007

Identification of the multiscale fractional Brownian motion with biomechanical applications

In certain applications, for instance biomechanics, turbulence, finance, or Internet traffic, it seems suitable to model the data by a generalization of a fractional Brownian motion for which the Hurst parameter $H$ is depending on the frequency as a piece-wise constant function. These processes are called multiscale fractional Brownian motions. In this contribution, we provide a statistical study of the multiscale fractional Brownian motions. We develop a method based on wavelet analysis. By using this method, we find initially the frequency changes, then we estimate the different parameters and afterwards we test the goodness-of-fit. Lastly, we give the numerical algorithm. Biomechanical data are then studied with these new tools.

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arXiv2007

Uniform limit theorems for the integrated periodogram of weakly dependent time series and their applications to Whittle's estimate

We prove uniform convergence results for the integrated periodogram of a weakly dependent time series, namely a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem. These results are applied to Whittle's parametric estimation. Under general weak-dependence assumptions we derive uniform limit theorems and asymptotic normality of Whittle's estimate for a large class of models. For instance the causal $θ$-weak dependence property allows a new and unified proof of those results for ARCH($\infty$) and bilinear processes. Non causal $η$-weak dependence yields the same limit theorems for two-sided linear (with dependent inputs) or Volterra processes.

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