arXiv subjects

Jean-Michel Loubes

Publications and source records attributed to Jean-Michel Loubes.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Risk Measures Estimation Under Wasserstein Barycenter

Randomness in financial markets requires modern and robust multivariate models of risk measures. This paper proposes a new approach for modeling multivariate risk measures under Wasserstein barycenters of probability measures supported on location-scatter families. Simple and advanced copulas multivariate Value at Risk models are compared with the derived technique. The performance of the model is also checked in market indices of United States generated by the financial crisis due to COVID-19. The introduced model behaves satisfactory in both common and volatile periods of asset prices, providing realistic VaR forecast in this era of social distancing.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Projection to Fairness in Statistical Learning

In the context of regression, we consider the fundamental question of making an estimator fair while preserving its prediction accuracy as much as possible. To that end, we define its projection to fairness as its closest fair estimator in a sense that reflects prediction accuracy. Our methodology leverages tools from optimal transport to construct efficiently the projection to fairness of any given estimator as a simple post-processing step. Moreover, our approach precisely quantifies the cost of fairness, measured in terms of prediction accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

The statistical effect of entropic regularization in optimal transportation

We propose to tackle the problem of understanding the effect of regularization in Sinkhorn algotihms. In the case of Gaussian distributions we provide a closed form for the regularized optimal transport which enables to provide a better understanding of the effect of the regularization from a statistical framework.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Review of Mathematical frameworks for Fairness in Machine Learning

A review of the main fairness definitions and fair learning methodologies proposed in the literature over the last years is presented from a mathematical point of view. Following our independence-based approach, we consider how to build fair algorithms and the consequences on the degradation of their performance compared to the possibly unfair case. This corresponds to the price for fairness given by the criteria $\textit{statistical parity}$ or $\textit{equality of odds}$. Novel results giving the expressions of the optimal fair classifier and the optimal fair predictor (under a linear regression gaussian model) in the sense of $\textit{equality of odds}$ are presented.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

optimalFlow: Optimal-transport approach to flow cytometry gating and population matching

Data obtained from Flow Cytometry present pronounced variability due to biological and technical reasons. Biological variability is a well-known phenomenon produced by measurements on different individuals, with different characteristics such as illness, age, sex, etc. The use of different settings for measurement, the variation of the conditions during experiments and the different types of flow cytometers are some of the technical causes of variability. This mixture of sources of variability makes the use of supervised machine learning for identification of cell populations difficult. The present work is conceived as a combination of strategies to facilitate the task of supervised gating. We propose $optimalFlowTemplates$, based on a similarity distance and $\text{Wasserstein barycenters}$, which clusters cytometries and produces prototype cytometries for the different groups. We show that supervised learning, restricted to the new groups, performs better than the same techniques applied to the whole collection. We also present $optimalFlowClassification$, which uses a database of gated cytometries and optimalFlowTemplates to assign cell types to a new cytometry. We show that this procedure can outperform state of the art techniques in the proposed datasets. Our code is freely available as $optimalFlow$ a Bioconductor R package at https://bioconductor.org/packages/optimalFlow. optimalFlowTemplates+optimalFlowClassification addresses the problem of using supervised learning while accounting for biological and technical variability. Our methodology provides a robust automated gating workflow that handles the intrinsic variability of flow cytometry data well. Our main innovation is the methodology itself and the optimal-transport techniques that we apply to flow cytometry analysis.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

A survey of bias in Machine Learning through the prism of Statistical Parity for the Adult Data Set

Applications based on Machine Learning models have now become an indispensable part of the everyday life and the professional world. A critical question then recently arised among the population: Do algorithmic decisions convey any type of discrimination against specific groups of population or minorities? In this paper, we show the importance of understanding how a bias can be introduced into automatic decisions. We first present a mathematical framework for the fair learning problem, specifically in the binary classification setting. We then propose to quantify the presence of bias by using the standard Disparate Impact index on the real and well-known Adult income data set. Finally, we check the performance of different approaches aiming to reduce the bias in binary classification outcomes. Importantly, we show that some intuitive methods are ineffective. This sheds light on the fact trying to make fair machine learning models may be a particularly challenging task, in particular when the training observations contain a bias.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Gaussian Processes indexed on the symmetric group: prediction and learning

In the framework of the supervised learning of a real function defined on a space X , the so called Kriging method stands on a real Gaussian field defined on X. The Euclidean case is well known and has been widely studied. In this paper, we explore the less classical case where X is the non commutative finite group of permutations. In this setting, we propose and study an harmonic analysis of the covariance operators that enables to consider Gaussian processes models and forecasting issues. Our theory is motivated by statistical ranking problems.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Gaussian processes with multidimensional distribution inputs via optimal transport and Hilbertian embedding

In this work, we investigate Gaussian Processes indexed by multidimensional distributions. While directly constructing radial positive definite kernels based on the Wasserstein distance has been proven to be possible in the unidimensional case, such constructions do not extend well to the multidimensional case as we illustrate here. To tackle the problem of defining positive definite kernels between multivariate distributions based on optimal transport, we appeal instead to Hilbert space embeddings relying on optimal transport maps to a reference distribution, that we suggest to take as a Wasserstein barycenter. We characterize in turn radial positive definite kernels on Hilbert spaces, and show that the covariance parameters of virtually all parametric families of covariance functions are microergodic in the case of (infinite-dimensional) Hilbert spaces. We also investigate statistical properties of our suggested positive definite kernels on multidimensional distributions, with a focus on consistency when a population Wasserstein barycenter is replaced by an empirical barycenter and additional explicit results in the special case of Gaussian distributions. Finally, we study the Gaussian process methodology based on our suggested positive definite kernels in regression problems with multidimensional distribution inputs, on simulation data stemming both from synthetic examples and from a mechanical engineering test case.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Central limit theorem and bootstrap procedure for Wasserstein's variations with an application to structural relationships between distributions

Wasserstein barycenters and variance-like criteria based on the Wasserstein distance are used in many problems to analyze the homogeneity of collections of distributions and structural relationships between the observations. We propose the estimation of the quantiles of the empirical process of Wasserstein's variation using a bootstrap procedure. We then use these results for statistical inference on a distribution registration model for general deformation functions. The tests are based on the variance of the distributions with respect to their Wasserstein's barycenters for which we prove central limit theorems, including bootstrap versions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Can everyday AI be ethical. Fairness of Machine Learning Algorithms

Combining big data and machine learning algorithms, the power of automatic decision tools induces as much hope as fear. Many recently enacted European legislation (GDPR) and French laws attempt to regulate the use of these tools. Leaving aside the well-identified problems of data confidentiality and impediments to competition, we focus on the risks of discrimination, the problems of transparency and the quality of algorithmic decisions. The detailed perspective of the legal texts, faced with the complexity and opacity of the learning algorithms, reveals the need for important technological disruptions for the detection or reduction of the discrimination risk, and for addressing the right to obtain an explanation of the auto- matic decision. Since trust of the developers and above all of the users (citizens, litigants, customers) is essential, algorithms exploiting personal data must be deployed in a strict ethical framework. In conclusion, to answer this need, we list some ways of controls to be developed: institutional control, ethical charter, external audit attached to the issue of a label.

stat.OT↗

arXiv2018

Obtaining fairness using optimal transport theory

Statistical algorithms are usually helping in making decisions in many aspects of our lives. But, how do we know if these algorithms are biased and commit unfair discrimination of a particular group of people, typically a minority? \textit{Fairness} is generally studied in a probabilistic framework where it is assumed that there exists a protected variable, whose use as an input of the algorithm may imply discrimination. There are different definitions of Fairness in the literature. In this paper we focus on two of them which are called Disparate Impact (DI) and Balanced Error Rate (BER). Both are based on the outcome of the algorithm across the different groups determined by the protected variable. The relationship between these two notions is also studied. The goals of this paper are to detect when a binary classification rule lacks fairness and to try to fight against the potential discrimination attributable to it. This can be done by modifying either the classifiers or the data itself. Our work falls into the second category and modifies the input data using optimal transport theory.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

A Central Limit Theorem for $L_p$ transportation cost with applications to Fairness Assessment in Machine Learning

We provide a Central Limit Theorem for the Monge-Kantorovich distance between two empirical distributions with size $n$ and $m$, $W_p(P_n,Q_m)$ for $p>1$ for observations on the real line, using a minimal amount of assumptions. We provide an estimate of the asymptotic variance which enables to build a two sample test to assess the similarity between two distributions. This test is then used to provide a new criterion to assess the notion of fairness of a classification algorithm.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Confidence Intervals for Testing Disparate Impact in Fair Learning

We provide the asymptotic distribution of the major indexes used in the statistical literature to quantify disparate treatment in machine learning. We aim at promoting the use of confidence intervals when testing the so-called group disparate impact. We illustrate on some examples the importance of using confidence intervals and not a single value.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Risk Measures and Credit Risk Under the Beta-Kotz Distribution

This paper considers the use for Value-at-Risk computations of the so-called Beta-Kotz distribution based on a general family of distributions including the classical Gaussian model. Actually, this work develops a new method for estimating the Value-at-Risk, the Conditional Value-at-Risk and the Economic Capital when the underlying risk factors follow a Beta-Kotz distribution. After estimating the parameters of the distribution of the loss random variable, both analytical for some particular values of the parameters and numerical approaches are provided for computing these mentioned measures. The proposed risk measures are finally applied for quantifying the potential risk of economic losses in Credit Risk.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

COREclust: a new package for a robust and scalable analysis of complex data

In this paper, we present a new R package COREclust dedicated to the detection of representative variables in high dimensional spaces with a potentially limited number of observations. Variable sets detection is based on an original graph clustering strategy denoted CORE-clustering algorithm that detects CORE-clusters, i.e. variable sets having a user defined size range and in which each variable is very similar to at least another variable. Representative variables are then robustely estimate as the CORE-cluster centers. This strategy is entirely coded in C++ and wrapped by R using the Rcpp package. A particular effort has been dedicated to keep its algorithmic cost reasonable so that it can be used on large datasets. After motivating our work, we will explain the CORE-clustering algorithm as well as a greedy extension of this algorithm. We will then present how to use it and results obtained on synthetic and real data.

cs.MS↗

arXiv2018

Central Limit Theorem for empirical transportation cost in general dimension

We consider the problem of optimal transportation with quadratic cost between a empirical measure and a general target probability on R d , with d $\ge$ 1. We provide new results on the uniqueness and stability of the associated optimal transportation potentials , namely, the minimizers in the dual formulation of the optimal transportation problem. As a consequence, we show that a CLT holds for the empirical transportation cost under mild moment and smoothness requirements. The limiting distributions are Gaussian and admit a simple description in terms of the optimal transportation potentials.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Rates of convergence in conditional covariance matrix with nonparametric entries estimation

Let $X\in \mathbb{R}^p$ and $Y\in \mathbb{R}$ be two random variables. We estimate the conditional covariance matrix $\mathrm{Cov}\left(\mathrm{E}\left[\boldsymbol{X}\vert Y\right]\right)$ applying a plug-in kernel-based algorithm to its entries. Next, we investigate the estimators rate of convergence under smoothness hypotheses on the density function of $(\boldsymbol{X},Y)$. In a high-dimensional context, we improve the consistency the whole matrix estimator by providing a decreasing structure over the $\mathrm{Cov}\left(\mathrm{E}\left[\boldsymbol{X}\vert Y\right]\right)$ entries. We illustrate a sliced inverse regression setting for time series matching the conditions of our estimator

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

A Gaussian Process Regression Model for Distribution Inputs

Monge-Kantorovich distances, otherwise known as Wasserstein distances, have received a growing attention in statistics and machine learning as a powerful discrepancy measure for probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on forecasting a Gaussian process indexed by probability distributions. For this, we provide a family of positive definite kernels built using transportation based distances. We provide a probabilistic understanding of these kernels and characterize the corresponding stochastic processes. We prove that the Gaussian processes indexed by distributions corresponding to these kernels can be efficiently forecast, opening new perspectives in Gaussian process modeling.

stat.ML↗