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Jean-Michel Loubes

Publications and source records attributed to Jean-Michel Loubes.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
arXiv2012

Modeling Weather Conditions Consequences on Road Trafficking Behaviors

We provide a model to understand how adverse weather conditions modify traffic flow dynamic. We first prove that the microscopic Free Flow Speed of the vehicles is changed and then provide a rule to model this change. For this, we consider a thresholded linear model, corresponding to an application of a MARS model to road trafficking. This model adapts itself locally to the whole road network and provides accurate unbiased forecasted speed using live or short term forecasted weather data information.

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arXiv2012

Adaptive Covariance Estimation with model selection

We provide in this paper a fully adaptive penalized procedure to select a covariance among a collection of models observing i.i.d replications of the process at fixed observation points. For this we generalize previous results of Bigot and al. and propose to use a data driven penalty to obtain an oracle inequality for the estimator. We prove that this method is an extension to the matricial regression model of the work by Baraud.

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arXiv2011

Unbiased risk estimation method for covariance estimation

We consider a model selection estimator of the covariance of a random process. Using the Unbiased Risk Estimation (URE) method, we build an estimator of the risk which allows to select an estimator in a collection of model. Then, we present an oracle inequality which ensures that the risk of the selected estimator is close to the risk of the oracle. Simulations show the efficiency of this methodology.

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arXiv2011

LAN property for some fractional type Brownian motion

We study asymptotic expansion of the likelihood of a certain class of Gaussian processes characterized by their spectral density $f_θ$. We consider the case where $f_θ\PAR{x} \sim_{x\to 0} \ABS{x}^{-\al(θ)}L_θ(x)$ with $L_θ$ a slowly varying function and $\al\PARθ\in (-\infty,1)$. We prove LAN property for these models which include in particular fractional Brownian motion %$B^α_t,\: α\geq 1/2$ or ARFIMA processes.

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arXiv2011

Group Lasso estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices

In this paper, we consider the Group Lasso estimator of the covariance matrix of a stochastic process corrupted by an additive noise. We propose to estimate the covariance matrix in a high-dimensional setting under the assumption that the process has a sparse representation in a large dictionary of basis functions. Using a matrix regression model, we propose a new methodology for high-dimensional covariance matrix estimation based on empirical contrast regularization by a group Lasso penalty. Using such a penalty, the method selects a sparse set of basis functions in the dictionary used to approximate the process, leading to an approximation of the covariance matrix into a low dimensional space. Consistency of the estimator is studied in Frobenius and operator norms and an application to sparse PCA is proposed.

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arXiv2011

Estimation error for blind Gaussian time series prediction

We tackle the issue of the blind prediction of a Gaussian time series. For this, we construct a projection operator build by plugging an empirical covariance estimation into a Schur complement decomposition of the projector. This operator is then used to compute the predictor. Rates of convergence of the estimates are given.

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arXiv2011

Adaptive estimation of spectral densities via wavelet thresholding and information projection

In this paper, we study the problem of adaptive estimation of the spectral density of a stationary Gaussian process. For this purpose, we consider a wavelet-based method which combines the ideas of wavelet approximation and estimation by information projection in order to warrants that the solution is a nonnegative function. The spectral density of the process is estimated by projecting the wavelet thresholding expansion of the periodogram onto a family of exponential functions. This ensures that the spectral density estimator is a strictly positive function. Then, by Bochner's theorem, the corresponding estimator of the covariance function is semidefinite positive. The theoretical behavior of the estimator is established in terms of rate of convergence of the Kullback-Leibler discrepancy over Besov classes. We also show the excellent practical performance of the estimator in some numerical experiments.

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arXiv2011

Manifold embedding for curve registration

We focus on the problem of finding a good representative of a sample of random curves warped from a common pattern f. We first prove that such a problem can be moved onto a manifold framework. Then, we propose an estimation of the common pattern f based on an approximated geodesic distance on a suitable manifold. We then compare the proposed method to more classical methods.

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arXiv2009

Nonparametric estimation of covariance functions by model selection

We propose a model selection approach for covariance estimation of a multi-dimensional stochastic process. Under very general assumptions, observing i.i.d replications of the process at fixed observation points, we construct an estimator of the covariance function by expanding the process onto a collection of basis functions. We study the non asymptotic property of this estimate and give a tractable way of selecting the best estimator among a possible set of candidates. The optimality of the procedure is proved via an oracle inequality which warrants that the best model is selected.

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arXiv2009

Maximum Entropy Estimation for Survey sampling

Calibration methods have been widely studied in survey sampling over the last decades. Viewing calibration as an inverse problem, we extend the calibration technique by using a maximum entropy method. Finding the optimal weights is achieved by considering random weights and looking for a discrete distribution which maximizes an entropy under the calibration constraint. This method points a new frame for the computation of such estimates and the investigation of its statistical properties.

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arXiv2009

Regularization with Approximated $L^2$ Maximum Entropy Method

We tackle the inverse problem of reconstructing an unknown finite measure $μ$ from a noisy observation of a generalized moment of $μ$ defined as the integral of a continuous and bounded operator $Φ$ with respect to $μ$. When only a quadratic approximation $Φ_m$ of the operator is known, we introduce the $L^2$ approximate maximum entropy solution as a minimizer of a convex functional subject to a sequence of convex constraints. Under several assumptions on the convex functional, the convergence of the approximate solution is established and rates of convergence are provided.

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arXiv2009

Oracle Inequality for Instrumental Variable Regression

We tackle the problem of estimating a regression function observed in an instrumental regression framework. This model is an inverse problem with unknown operator. We provide a spectral cut-off estimation procedure which enables to derive oracle inequalities which warrants that our estimate, built without any prior knowledge, behaves as well as, up to $\log$ term, if the best model were known.

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arXiv2008

Non parametric estimation of the structural expectation of a stochastic increasing function

This article introduces a non parametric warping model for functional data. When the outcome of an experiment is a sample of curves, data can be seen as realizations of a stochastic process, which takes into account the small variations between the different observed curves. The aim of this work is to define a mean pattern which represents the main behaviour of the set of all the realizations. So we define the structural expectation of the underlying stochastic function. Then we provide empirical estimators of this structural expectation and of each individual warping function. Consistency and asymptotic normality for such estimators are proved.

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arXiv2008

Estimation of the distribution of random shifts deformation

Consider discrete values of functions shifted by unobserved translation effects, which are independent realizations of a random variable with unknown distribution $μ$, modeling the variability in the response of each individual. Our aim is to construct a nonparametric estimator of the density of these random translation deformations using semiparametric preliminary estimates of the shifts. Building on results of Dalalyan et al. (2006), semiparametric estimators are obtained in our discrete framework and their performance studied. From these estimates we construct a nonparametric estimator of the target density. Both rates of convergence and an algorithm to construct the estimator are provided.

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arXiv2008

Kernel Inverse Regression for spatial random fields

In this paper, we propose a dimension reduction model for spatially dependent variables. Namely, we investigate an extension of the \emph{inverse regression} method under strong mixing condition. This method is based on estimation of the matrix of covariance of the expectation of the explanatory given the dependent variable, called the \emph{inverse regression}. Then, we study, under strong mixing condition, the weak and strong consistency of this estimate, using a kernel estimate of the \emph{inverse regression}. We provide the asymptotic behaviour of this estimate. A spatial predictor based on this dimension reduction approach is also proposed. This latter appears as an alternative to the spatial non-parametric predictor.

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arXiv2008

Maxisets for Model Selection

We address the statistical issue of determining the maximal spaces (maxisets) where model selection procedures attain a given rate of convergence. By considering first general dictionaries, then orthonormal bases, we characterize these maxisets in terms of approximation spaces. These results are illustrated by classical choices of wavelet model collections. For each of them, the maxisets are described in terms of functional spaces. We take a special care of the issue of calculability and measure the induced loss of performance in terms of maxisets.

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arXiv2008

Adaptive complexity regularization for linear inverse problems

We tackle the problem of building adaptive estimation procedures for ill-posed inverse problems. For general regularization methods depending on tuning parameters, we construct a penalized method that selects the optimal smoothing sequence without prior knowledge of the regularity of the function to be estimated. We provide for such estimators oracle inequalities and optimal rates of convergence. This penalized approach is applied to Tikhonov regularization and to regularization by projection.

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