arXiv subjects

Jeffrey A. Newman

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey A. Newman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Cosmological Constraints from Full-Scale Clustering and Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing with DESI DR1

We present constraints on cosmic structure growth from the analysis of galaxy clustering and galaxy--galaxy lensing with galaxies from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1. Our analysis includes four samples drawn from the Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) and the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) target classes. Projected galaxy clustering measurements from DESI are supplemented with lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), and the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey around the same targets. Our method relies on a simulation-based modeling framework using the AbacusSummit simulations and a complex halo occupation distribution model that incorporates assembly bias. We analyze scales down to $0.4 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ for clustering and $2.5 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ for lensing, leading to stringent constraints on $S_8 = σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_\mathrm{m} / 0.3}$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m}$ when fixing other cosmological parameters to those preferred by the CMB. We find $S_8 = 0.797_{-0.024}^{+0.023}$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.292 \pm 0.011$ when using lensing measurements from DES and KiDS. Similarly, for HSC, we find $S_8 = 0.791_{-0.021}^{+0.020}$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.300 \pm 0.009$ when assuming the best-fit photometric redshift offset suggested by the HSC collaboration. Overall, our results are in good agreement with other results in the literature while continuing to highlight the constraining power of non-linear scales.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Model-Independent Measurement of Baryon Gas Fractions through Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing and the Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect

Baryon feedback is a leading source of systematic uncertainty for cosmology from weak lensing, but measurements of the gas distribution around galaxies have largely relied on parametric profile models or simulation-calibrated frameworks. We present model independent measurements of the radial gas fraction profile around galaxies, combining galaxy-galaxy lensing and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect. We introduce a method that applies the same radial $ΔΣ$ aperture filter to both the galaxy-galaxy lensing shear field and the velocity-weighted kSZ temperature maps; their ratio directly yields $ΔΣ$ filtered gas fraction $f_{\rm gas}(R)$, the ratio of ionized gas to total matter as a function of projected radius. We apply this approach to DESI DR2 Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS, $\bar{z}\approx0.26$) and Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG, $0.4<z<1.1$) samples, using ACT DR6 component-separated CMB maps for kSZ and the HSC Year 3 shear catalog for weak lensing. After correcting for ACT beam suppression using a simulation-calibrated compensation factor, we detect baryon depletion relative to the cosmic mean baryon fraction at SNR = 17.1 (BGS) and SNR = 15.8 (LRG bin 1). Comparison with six hydrodynamical simulations from the Illustris, IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, and FLAMINGO suites shows that no single feedback prescription reproduces the observed radial gas distribution across all scales, with the measurements falling between the strongest (Illustris-1) and weaker prescriptions. We caution that comparisons between the South Galactic Cap (SGC) and North Galactic Cap (NGC) show evidence of unexplained residual systematics in kSZ in one redshift bin. The ratio is robust against splits by stellar mass and satellite versus centrals. These results establish $ΔΣ$ filtering of kSZ versus weak lensing signal as a model-independent probe of the baryon distribution around galaxies.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Optimizing Photometric Redshift Training Sets I: Efficient Compression of the Galaxy Color-Redshift Relation with UMAP

Spectroscopic datasets are essential for training and calibrating photometric redshift (photo-$z$) methods. However, spectroscopic redshifts (spec-$z$'s) constitute a biased and sparse sampling of the photometric galaxy population, which creates difficulties for the common grid-based approach for mapping color to redshift using self-organizing maps (SOMs). Instead, we utilized the uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) algorithm to compress a Rubin--Roman-like $ugrizyJH$ color space into a thin and densely-sampled manifold. Crucially, the manifold varies continuously and monotonically in redshift and specific star formation rate in roughly orthogonal directions. Using COSMOS2020 many-band photo-$z$'s and compiled spec-$z$'s as representative and non-representative samples, respectively, we trained and tested redshift prediction from a SOM, from nearest neighbors in UMAP coordinates (UMAP-$k$NN-$z$), and directly from nearest neighbors in the color space to assess how well location in each space maps to redshift. For the representative training set, UMAP-$k$NN-$z$ exhibited smaller photo-$z$ scatter and fraction of outliers than SOM-based methods. When training with the highly-biased spec-$z$ sample, UMAP-$k$NN-$z$ maintained similar performance while SOM- and color-based methods predictions were significantly degraded, especially at $z>1.5$ where training sets are the most sparse. The physically-meaningful trends across the UMAP manifold allow for accurate redshift prediction even in such poorly-sampled regions of color space. This suggests that representative, spectroscopically-anchored training sets can be produced by interpolating between spectroscopic sources at the UMAP coordinates of photometric objects, maximizing the performance of photo-$z$ algorithms.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

The Power of DESI for Photometric Redshift Calibration: A Case Study with KiDS-1000

Accurate redshift estimates are a critical requirement for weak lensing surveys and one of the main uncertainties in constraints on dark energy and large-scale cosmic structure. In this paper, we study the potential to calibrate photometric redshift (photo-z) distributions for gravitational lensing using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Since beginning its science operations in 2021, DESI has collected more than 50 million redshifts, adding about one million monthly. In addition to its large-scale structure samples, DESI has also acquired over 256k high-quality spectroscopic redshifts (spec-zs) in the COSMOS and XMM and VVDS fields. This is already a factor of 3 larger than previous spec-z calibration compilations in these two regions. Here, we explore calibrating photo-zs for the subset of KiDS-1000 galaxies that fall into joint self-organizing map (SOM) cells overlapping the DESI COSMOS footprint using the DESI COSMOS observations. Estimating the redshift distribution in KiDS-1000 with the new DESI data, we find broad consistency with previously published results while also detecting differences in the mean redshift in some tomographic bins with an average shifts of Delta Mean(z) = -0.028 in the mean and Delta Median(z) = +0.011 in the median across tomographic bins. However, we also find that incompleteness per SOM cell, i.e., groups of galaxies with similar colors and magnitudes, can modify n(z) distributions. Finally, we comment on the fact that larger photometric catalogs, aligned with the DESI COSMOS and DESI XMM and VVDS footprints, would be needed to fully exploit the DESI dataset and would extend the coverage to nearly eight times the area of existing 9-band photometry.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Frequentist Cosmological Constraints from Full-Shape Clustering Measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set $\{σ_8, H_0, Ω_{\rm{m}}, w_0, w_a\}$ using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the $w_0w_a$CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following $1σ$ frequentist confidence intervals for $Λ$CDM ($w_0w_a$CDM): $σ_8 = 0.863^{+0.048}_{-0.040} , \ H_0 = 68.96^{+0.81}_{-0.80} \ \rm{km \ s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}} , \ Ω_{\rm{m}} = 0.3034\pm0.0110$ ($σ_8 = 0.782^{+0.060}_{-0.036} , \ H_0 = 63.7^{+4.2}_{-2.0} \ \rm{km \ s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}} , \ Ω_{\rm{m}} = 0.378^{+0.024}_{-0.047} , \ w_0 = -0.16^{+0.10}_{-0.50} , \ w_a = -3.0^{+1.7}_{}$), corresponding to 0.8$σ$, 0.3$σ$, 0.7$σ$ (2.1$σ$, 4.1$σ$, 6.5$σ$, 6.3$σ$, 6.6$σ$) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for $Λ$CDM ($w_0w_a$CDM) respectively.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Optimizing Deep Learning Photometric Redshifts for the Roman Space Telescope with HST/CANDELS

Photometric redshifts (photo-$z$'s) will be crucial for studies of galaxy evolution, large-scale structure, and transients with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. Deep learning methods leverage pixel-level information from ground-based images to achieve the best photo-$z$'s for low-redshift galaxies, but their efficacy at higher redshifts with deep, space-based imaging remains largely untested. We used Hubble Space Telescope CANDELS optical and near-infrared imaging to evaluate fully-supervised, self-supervised, and semi-supervised deep learning photo-$z$ algorithms out to $z\sim3$. Compared to template-based and classical machine learning photometry methods, the fully-supervised and semi-supervised models achieved better performance. Our new semi-supervised model, PITA (Photo-$z$ Inference with a Triple-task Algorithm), outperformed all others by learning from unlabeled and labeled data through a three-part loss function that incorporates images and colors for all objects as well as redshifts when available. PITA produces a latent space that varies smoothly in magnitude, color, and redshift, resulting in the best photo-$z$ performance even when the redshift training set was significantly reduced. In contrast, the self-supervised approach produced a latent space with significant color and redshift fluctuations that hindered photo-$z$ inference. Looking forward to Roman, we recommend using semi supervised deep learning to take full advantage of the information contained in the hundreds of millions of high-resolution images and color measurements, together with the limited redshift measurements available, to achieve the most accurate photo-$z$ estimates for both faint and bright sources.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity from DESI DR1 quasars and Planck PR4 CMB Lensing

We present the first measurement of local-type primordial non-Gaussianity from the cross-correlation between $1.2$ million spectroscopically confirmed quasars from the first data release (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and the Planck PR4 CMB lensing reconstructions. The analysis is performed in three tomographic redshift bins covering $0.8 < z < 3.5$, covering a sky fraction of $\sim 20\%$. We adopt a catalog-based pseudo-$C_\ell$ estimator and apply linear imaging weights validated on noiseless mocks. Compared to previous analyses using photometric quasar samples, our results benefit from the high purity of the DESI spectroscopic sample, the reduced noise of PR4 lensing, and the absence of excess large-scale power in the spectroscopic quasar auto-correlation. Fitting simultaneously for the non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{\mathrm{NL}}$ and the linear bias amplitude in each redshift bin, we obtain $f_{\mathrm{NL}} = 2^{+28}_{-34}$ for a response parameter $p=1.6$, and $f_{\mathrm{NL}} = 6^{+20}_{-24}$ for $p=1.0$. These results improve the constraints on $f_{\mathrm{NL}}$ by $\sim 35\%$ compared to the previous analysis based on the Legacy Imaging Survey DR9. Additionally, we derive an optimal weighting scheme to maximize the constraining power. In this case, and assuming $p=1.6$, we obtain $f_\mathrm{NL}=19^{+25}_{-31}$. Our results demonstrate the statistical power of DESI quasars for probing inflationary physics, and highlight the promise of future DESI data releases.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Deep Spectroscopy with DESI for Photometric Redshift Training and Calibration

Deep spectroscopic samples can be used to improve photometric redshift (photo-$z$) estimates and reduce uncertainties on redshift distributions. Such improvements can increase the cosmological constraining power of large imaging-based experiments such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and mitigate what may be a limiting systematic effect. We present results from the ``DESI-Deep pilot'' program, which was designed to assess the capability of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) on the 4m Mayall telescope to measure redshifts of galaxies as faint as expected lensing samples for early LSST data ($m_i \leq 24.5$). We find that DESI is remarkably efficient at this task, with redshift success rates comparable to the results of observations from 10m-class telescopes with only $\sim2\times$ longer integration time (rather than $\sim 8\times$ longer as would be expected from aperture-area scaling), while simultaneously achieving $\sim30$ times larger multiplexing. We also find that the signal-to-noise ratio of the spectra scales as expected for background-limited observations even for the longest exposure times ($\sim 7$ hours) and faintest targets in the program. These results demonstrate that DESI could provide the definitive redshift sample for the early years of LSST with a modest investment of observing time. Based upon the results of this program, we provide updated predictions for the time required to collect benchmark samples for photo-$z$ training and calibration using a variety of spectroscopic facilities. Finally, we describe a potential "DESI-Deep" survey designed to train and calibrate photo-$z$'s for imaging experiments, and provide forecasts of its impact on cosmological inference.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Nonlinear Information from DESI Luminous Red Galaxies: An Emulator-Based Analysis of Pre- and Post-Reconstruction Power Spectra

We present joint measurements of the pre- and post-reconstruction power spectra, $P_{\rm pre}$ and $P_{\rm post}$, together with their cross-power spectrum, $P_{\rm cross}$, for the Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) in the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1). We jointly analyse these observables with an emulator-based full-shape modeling framework, thereby, for the first time, we extract complementary nonlinear information from the galaxy density field before and after reconstruction in real survey data. Specifically, including $P_{\rm post}$ and $P_{\rm cross}$ in addition to $P_{\rm pre}$ (hereafter $P_{\rm all}$) yields an improvement of approximately $18$-$27\%$ in the $σ_8$ constraint in both $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM, depending on the redshift bin, relative to the $P_{\rm pre}$-only analysis with the cosmic microwave background distance priors (hereafter CMB). In $w$CDM, the joint CMB+$P_{\rm all}$ analysis can tighten the constraints on $w$ by approximately $5$-$15\%$ across the two LRG redshift bins, compared to the CMB+$P_{\rm pre}$ combination. Further incorporating the Type Ia supernova dataset and comparing the cosmological constraints in $w$CDM from each individual power-spectrum component with those from the full combination, we find that $P_{\rm all}$ consistently provides the tightest constraints. From the joint CMB+$P_{\rm all}$+DES-Dovekie dataset, we obtain $Ω_m = 0.314 \pm 0.0048$ and $w = -0.988 \pm 0.023$ for the \texttt{LRG1} sample, and $Ω_m = 0.318 \pm 0.0046$ and $w = -0.988 \pm 0.025$ for \texttt{LRG2}. These results demonstrate that combining pre- and post-reconstruction power spectra with their cross-correlation enables DESI to harvest additional nonlinear information, leading to tighter constraints on cosmological parameters.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Highly Efficient Selection of High-Redshift Emission-Line Galaxies for future DESI-like surveys with Deep Multi-band Imaging

Emission-line galaxies (ELGs) are an important tracer of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and large-scale structure (LSS) at $z > 1$. In this work, we investigate the feasibility of using deep wide-area multi-band imaging (e.g., from the Rubin Observatory) to efficiently select high redshift ELGs. Using Hyper Supreme-Cam $grizy$ photometry and COSMOS2020 many-band photometric redshifts, we designed simple color cuts guided by a probabilistic random forest classifier to select galaxies at $z = 1.1$--$1.6$. We then empirically tested and refined these color cuts using two samples of galaxies with deep spectroscopy and broad color coverage obtained with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Compared to DESI ELGs at $z = 1.1$--$1.6$, we achieve a higher redshift measurement success rate (89% versus 69%), a much higher correct redshift range success rate (84% versus 34%), and a far higher net surface density yield (1372 $\mathrm{deg^{-2}}$ versus 660 $\mathrm{deg^{-2}}$). Combining our sample with current DESI ELGs would increase the net ELG number density by a factor of $\sim3$, moving it out of the shot-noise limited regime and reducing the uncertainties on the BAO scale parameter at $z = 1.1$--$1.6$ by a factor of $\sim 2$.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Measurements of the Thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect with ACT and DESI Luminous Red Galaxies

Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons scatter off the free-electron gas in galaxies and clusters, allowing us to use the CMB as a backlight to probe the gas in and around low-redshift galaxies. The thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, sourced by hot electrons in high-density environments, measures the thermal pressure of the target objects, shedding light on halo thermodynamics and galaxy formation and providing a path toward understanding the baryon distribution around cosmic structures. We use a combination of high-resolution CMB maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and photometric luminous red galaxy (LRG) catalogues from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) to measure the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich signal in four redshift bins from $z=0.4$ to $z=1.2$, with a combined detection significance of 19$σ$ when stacking on the fiducial CMB Compton-$y$ map. We discuss possible sources of contamination, finding that residual dust emission associated with the target galaxies is important and limits current analyses. We discuss several mitigation strategies and quantify the residual modelling uncertainty. This work complements closely related measurements of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich and weak lensing of the same galaxies.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

A Unified Photometric Redshift Calibration for Weak Lensing Surveys using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

The effective redshift distribution $n(z)$ of galaxies is a critical component in the study of weak gravitational lensing. Here, we introduce a new method for determining $n(z)$ for weak lensing surveys based on high-quality redshifts and neural network-based importance weights. Additionally, we present the first unified photometric redshift calibration of the three leading stage-III weak lensing surveys, the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey and the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), with state-of-the-art spectroscopic data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We verify our method using a new, data-driven approach and obtain $n(z)$ constraints with statistical uncertainties of order $σ_{\bar z} \sim 0.01$ and smaller. Our analysis is largely independent of previous photometric redshift calibrations and, thus, provides an important cross-check in light of recent cosmological tensions. Overall, we find excellent agreement with previously published results on the DES Y3 and HSC Y1 data sets while there are some differences on the mean redshift with respect to the previously published KiDS-1000 results. We attribute the latter to mismatches in photometric noise properties in the COSMOS field compared to the wider KiDS SOM-gold catalog. At the same time, the new $n(z)$ estimates for KiDS do not significantly change estimates of cosmic structure growth from cosmic shear. Finally, we discuss how our method can be applied to future weak lensing calibrations with DESI data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Uniform Rolling: An LSST Observing Cadence Offering Sufficient Survey Uniformity for Comprehensive Cosmological Analysis

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) that will be carried out by the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory promises to be the defining survey of the next decade, supplying unprecedented access to the night sky to static science- and time-domain science-focused researchers alike. Maximizing the output of the broad remit of Rubin Observatory science requires a non-trivial survey strategy. For time-domain science, the most promising strategy designed so far is a rolling survey strategy, whereby a subset of the full LSST survey area is observed at higher rate compared with the nominal rate dictated by weather conditions and the observatory's technical constraints. This strategy is now the baseline approach for the LSST as a whole. Focusing on static science (galaxy clustering and weak lensing), we study how these time-domain-optimized rolling strategies affect the depth uniformity at intermediate years of the survey. We characterize the amount of survey area at high risk of being lost in static-science analyses of a baseline rolling LSST dataset due to an insufficient combination of survey contiguity and uniformity. At intermediate data releases, nearly half of the survey could be lost for static science, decreasing the Dark Energy figure of merit by approximately 40\%. We describe additional metrics focused on key analysis tasks, such as photometric redshifts and galaxy clustering. We propose a new strategy that returns the survey to uniformity at key release years, enabling use of the full survey area and restoring our metrics to the values they would have in a non-rolling cadence without loss of time domain data relative to a rolling survey with the same number of rolling cycles. This work has informed the third round of optimization of the survey strategy, and the new uniform rolling strategies have been incorporated into the baseline strategy.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Deep Learning Improves Photometric Redshifts in All Regions of Color Space

Photometric redshifts (photo-$z$'s) are crucial for the cosmology, galaxy evolution, and transient science drivers of next-generation imaging facilities like the Euclid Mission, the Rubin Observatory, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. Previous work has shown that image-based deep learning photo-$z$ methods produce smaller scatter than photometry-based classical machine learning (ML) methods on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Main Galaxy Sample, a testbed photo-$z$ dataset. However, global assessments can obscure local trends. To explore this possibility, we used a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster SDSS galaxies based on their $ugriz$ colors. Deep learning methods achieve lower photo-$z$ scatter than classical ML methods for all SOM cells. The fractional reduction in scatter is roughly constant across most of color space with the exception of the most bulge-dominated and reddest cells where it is smaller in magnitude. Interestingly, classical ML photo-$z$'s suffer from a significant color-dependent attenuation bias, where photo-$z$'s for galaxies within a SOM cell are systematically biased towards the cell's mean spectroscopic redshift and away from extreme values, which is not readily apparent when all objects are considered. In contrast, deep learning photo-$z$'s suffer from very little color-dependent attenuation bias. The increased attenuation bias for classical ML photo-$z$ methods is the primary reason why they exhibit larger scatter than deep learning methods. This difference can be explained by the deep learning methods weighting redshift information from the individual pixels of a galaxy image more optimally than integrated photometry.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Quantifying the Impact of LSST $u$-band Survey Strategy on Photometric Redshift Estimation and the Detection of Lyman-break Galaxies

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will conduct the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), promising to discover billions of galaxies out to redshift 7, using six photometric bands ($ugrizy$) spanning the near-ultraviolet to the near-infrared. The exact number of and quality of information about these galaxies will depend on survey depth in these six bands, which in turn depends on the LSST survey strategy: i.e., how often and how long to expose in each band. $u$-band depth is especially important for photometric redshift (photo-$z$) estimation and for detection of high-redshift Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs). In this paper we use a simulated galaxy catalog and an analytic model for the LBG population to study how recent updates and proposed changes to Rubin's $u$-band throughput and LSST survey strategy impact photo-$z$ accuracy and LBG detection. We find that proposed variations in $u$-band strategy have a small impact on photo-$z$ accuracy for $z < 1.5$ galaxies, but the outlier fraction, scatter, and bias for higher redshift galaxies varies by up to 50%, depending on the survey strategy considered. The number of $u$-band dropout LBGs at $z \sim 3$ is also highly sensitive to the $u$-band depth, varying by up to 500%, while the number of $griz$-band dropouts is only modestly affected. Under the new $u$-band strategy recommended by the Rubin Survey Cadence Optimization Committee, we predict $u$-band dropout number densities of $110$ deg$^{-2}$ (3200 deg$^{-2}$) in year 1 (10) of LSST. We discuss the implications of these results for LSST cosmology.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Towards Instance-Wise Calibration: Local Amortized Diagnostics and Reshaping of Conditional Densities (LADaR)

Key science questions, such as galaxy distance estimation and weather forecasting, often require knowing the full predictive distribution of a target variable $y$ given complex inputs $\mathbf{x}$. Despite recent advances in machine learning and physics-based models, it remains challenging to assess whether an initial model is calibrated for all $\mathbf{x}$, and when needed, to reshape the densities of $y$ toward "instance-wise" calibration. This paper introduces the LADaR (Local Amortized Diagnostics and Reshaping of Conditional Densities) framework and proposes a new computationally efficient algorithm ($\texttt{Cal-PIT}$) that produces interpretable local diagnostics and provides a mechanism for adjusting conditional density estimates (CDEs). $\texttt{Cal-PIT}$ learns a single interpretable local probability--probability map from calibration data that identifies where and how the initial model is miscalibrated across feature space, which can be used to morph CDEs such that they are well-calibrated. We illustrate the LADaR framework on synthetic examples, including probabilistic forecasting from image sequences, akin to predicting storm wind speed from satellite imagery. Our main science application involves estimating the probability density functions of galaxy distances given photometric data, where $\texttt{Cal-PIT}$ achieves better instance-wise calibration than all 11 other literature methods in a benchmark data challenge, demonstrating its utility for next-generation cosmological analyses.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Dynamical Dark Energy in light of the DESI DR2 Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations Measurements

Understanding whether cosmic acceleration arises from a cosmological constant or a dynamical component is a central goal of cosmology, and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) enables stringent tests with high-precision distance measurements. We analyze baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) and Data Release 2 (DR2), combined with Type Ia supernovae and a cosmic microwave background (CMB) distance prior. With the larger statistical power and wider redshift coverage of DR2, the preference for dynamical dark energy does not diminish relative to DR1. Using both a shape-function reconstruction and non-parametric approaches with a Horndeski-motivated correlation prior, we find that the dark-energy equation of state $w(z)$ varies with redshift. BAO data alone yield modest constraints, but in combination with independent supernova compilations and the CMB prior they strengthen the evidence for dynamics. Bayesian model comparison shows moderate support for departures from $Λ$CDM when multiple degrees of freedom in $w(z)$ are allowed, corresponding to $\approx3σ$ tension with $Λ$CDM (and higher for some data sets). Despite methodological differences, our results are consistent with companion DESI papers, underscoring the complementarity of approaches. Possible systematics remain under study; forthcoming DESI, \emph{Euclid}, and next-generation CMB data will provide decisive tests.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope DR6 and DESI: Structure formation over cosmic time with a measurement of the cross-correlation of CMB Lensing and Luminous Red Galaxies

We present a high-significance cross-correlation of CMB lensing maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) with spectroscopically calibrated luminous red galaxies (LRGs) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We detect this cross-correlation at a significance of 38$σ$; combining our measurement with the Planck Public Release 4 (PR4) lensing map, we detect the cross-correlation at 50$σ$. Fitting this jointly with the galaxy auto-correlation power spectrum to break the galaxy bias degeneracy with $σ_8$, we perform a tomographic analysis in four LRG redshift bins spanning $0.4 \le z \le 1.0$ to constrain the amplitude of matter density fluctuations through the parameter combination $S_8^\times = σ_8 \left(Ω_m / 0.3\right)^{0.4}$. Prior to unblinding, we confirm with extragalactic simulations that foreground biases are negligible and carry out a comprehensive suite of null and consistency tests. Using a hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) model that allows scales as small as $k_{\rm max}=0.6$ $h/{\rm Mpc}$, we obtain a 3.3% constraint on $S_8^\times = σ_8 \left(Ω_m / 0.3\right)^{0.4} = 0.792^{+0.024}_{-0.028}$ from ACT data, as well as constraints on $S_8^\times(z)$ that probe structure formation over cosmic time. Our result is consistent with the early-universe extrapolation from primary CMB anisotropies measured by Planck PR4 within 1.2$σ$. Jointly fitting ACT and Planck lensing cross-correlations we obtain a 2.7% constraint of $S_8^\times = 0.776^{+0.019}_{-0.021}$, which is consistent with the Planck early-universe extrapolation within 2.1$σ$, with the lowest redshift bin showing the largest difference in mean. The latter may motivate further CMB lensing tomography analyses at $z<0.6$ to assess the impact of potential systematics or the consistency of the $Λ$CDM model over cosmic time.

astro-ph.CO↗