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Jeffrey Blume

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey Blume.

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A Robust Effect Size Index

Effect size indices are useful tools in study design and reporting because they are unitless measures of association strength that do not depend on sample size. Existing effect size indices are developed for particular parametric models or population parameters. Here, we propose a robust effect size index based on M-estimators. This approach yields an index that is very generalizable because it is unitless across a wide range of models. We demonstrate that the new index is a function of Cohen's $d$, $R^2$, and standardized log odds ratio when each of the parametric models is correctly specified. We show that existing effect size estimators are biased when the parametric models are incorrect (e.g. under unknown heteroskedasticity). We provide simple formulas to compute power and sample size and use simulations to assess the bias and variance of the effect size estimator in finite samples. Because the new index is invariant across models, it has the potential to make communication and comprehension of effect size uniform across the behavioral sciences.

stat.ME

An Empirical Bayes Approach to Regularization Using Previously Published Models

This manuscript proposes a novel empirical Bayes technique for regularizing regression coefficients in predictive models. When predictions from a previously published model are available, this empirical Bayes method provides a natural mathematical framework for shrinking coefficients toward the estimates implied by the body of existing research rather than the shrinkage toward zero provided by traditional L1 and L2 penalization schemes. The method is applied to two different prediction problems. The first involves the construction of a model for predicting whether a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of the KCNQ1 gene will result in dysfunction of the corresponding voltage gated ion channel. The second involves the prediction of preoperative serum creatinine change in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

stat.AP