arXiv subjects

Jeffrey P. Morgenthaler

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey P. Morgenthaler.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Doomed Worlds II: Reassessing Suggestions of Orbital Decay for TrES-5 b

TrES-5b is one of only three ultra-hot Jupiters (UHJs) with suggestions of a possibly decreasing orbital period that have persisted through multiple independent analyses (G. Maciejewski et al. 2021; S. R. Hagey et al. 2022; E. S. Ivshina & J. N. Winn 2022; W. Wang et al. 2024; L. C. Yeh et al. 2024). While WASP-12 b's decreasing period is well-explained by tidally induced orbital decay (K. C. Patra et al. 2017), and stellar acceleration has been proposed for WASP-4 b (L. G. Bouma et al. 2020), the cause of the apparent trend for TrES-5 b has not been satisfactorily explained. This work extends the previous observations with 14 new ground-based transits from 2016-2024 and two newly-published midtimes for data from 2007 and 2009. Four TESS sectors (75, 77, 82, and 84) have also been included for the first time. With the new data, the case for a decreasing orbital period is much weaker than before. The revised rate of period change, dP/dt=-5.3 +/- 2.2 ms yr^-1, is less than half that was found in previous work and the preference for a quadratic over a linear model, as measured through Delta BIC_LQ, has been falling since 2020, with a current value of 11. Furthermore, these results are not robust to outliers; removing a single early transit midtime causes the effect to vanish (Delta BIC_LQ = -1). Additionally, no significant periodic signals in the transit timing data are identified. The current data are well explained by a linear ephemeris.

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arXiv2025

Metrics for Optimizing Searches for Orbital Precession and Tidal Decay via Transit- and Occultation-Timing

Short-period exoplanets may exhibit orbital precession driven by several different processes, including tidal interactions with their host stars and secular interactions with additional planets. This motion manifests as periodic shifts in the timing between transits which may be detectable via high-precision and long-baseline transit- and occultation-timing measurements. Detecting precession and attributing it to a particular process may constrain the tidal responses of planets and point to the presence of otherwise undetected perturbers. However, over relatively short timescales, orbital decay driven by the same tidal interactions can induce transit-timing signals similar to the precession signal, and distinguishing between the two processes requires robust assessment of the model statistics. In this context, occultation observations can help distinguish the two signals, but determining the precision and scheduling of observations sufficient to meaningfully contribute can be complicated. In this study, we expand on earlier work focused on searches for tidal decay to map out simple metrics that facilitate detection of precession and how to distinguish it from tidal decay. We discuss properties for a short-period exoplanet system that can maximize the likelihood for detecting such signals and prospects for contributions from citizen-science observations.

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arXiv2024

Doomed Worlds I: No new evidence for orbital decay in a long-term survey of 43 ultra-hot Jupiters

Ultra-hot Jupiters are likely doomed by tidal forces to undergo orbital decay and eventual disruption by their stars, but the timescale over which this process unfolds is unknown. We present results from a long-term project to monitor ultra-hot Jupiters transits. We recovered WASP-12 b's orbital decay rate of dP/dt = -29.8 +/- 1.6 ms yr-1, in agreement with prior work. Five other systems initially had promising non-linear transit ephemerides. However, a closer examination of two -- WASP-19 b and CoRoT-2 b, both with prior tentative detections -- revealed several independent errors with the literature timing data; after correction neither planet shows signs of orbital decay. Meanwhile, a potential decreasing period for TrES-1 b, dP/dt = -16 +/- 5 ms yr-1, corresponds to a tidal quality factor Q*' = 160 and likely does not result from orbital decay, if driven by dissipation within the host star. Nominal period increases in two systems, WASP-121 b and WASP-46 b, rest on a small handful of points. Only 1/43 planets (WASP-12 b) in our sample is experiencing detectable orbital decay. For nearly half (20/42) we can rule out dP/dt as high as observed for WASP-12 b. Thus while many ultra-hot Jupiters could still be experiencing rapid decay that we cannot yet detect, a sizeable sub-population of UHJs are decaying at least an order of magnitude more slowly than WASP-12 b. Our reanalysis of Kepler-1658 b with no new data finds that it remains a promising orbital decay candidate. Finally, we recommend that the scientific community take steps to avoid spurious detections through better management of the multi-decade-spanning datasets needed to search for and study planetary orbital decay.

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arXiv2024

Jovian sodium nebula and Io plasma torus S$^+$ and brightnesses 2017 -- 2023: insights into volcanic vs. sublimation supply

We present first results derived from the largest collection of contemporaneously recorded Jovian sodium nebula and Io plasma torus (IPT) in [S II] 673.1 nm images assembled to date. The data were recorded by the Planetary Science Institute's Io Input/Output observatory (IoIO) and provide important context to Io geologic and atmospheric studies as well as the Juno mission and supporting observations. Enhancements in the observed emission are common, typically lasting 1 -- 3 months, such that the average flux of material from Io is determined by the enhancements, not any quiescent state. The enhancements are not seen at periodicities associated with modulation in solar insolation of Io's surface, thus physical process(es) other than insolation-driven sublimation must ultimately drive the bulk of Io's atmospheric escape. We suggest that geologic activity, likely involving volcanic plumes, drives escape.

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arXiv2023

Metrics for Optimizing Searches for Tidally Decaying Exoplanets

Tidal interactions between short-period exoplanets and their host stars drive orbital decay and have likely led to engulfment of planets by their stars. Precise transit timing surveys, with baselines now spanning decades for some planets, are directly detecting orbital decay for a handful of planets, with corroboration for planetary engulfment coming from independent lines of evidence. More than that, recent observations have perhaps even caught the moment of engulfment for one unfortunate planet. These portentous signs bolster prospects for ongoing surveys, but optimizing such a survey requires considering the astrophysical parameters that give rise to robust timing constraints and large tidal decay rates, as well as how best to schedule observations conducted over many years. The large number of possible targets means it is not feasible to continually observe all planets that might exhibit detectable tidal decay. In this study, we explore astrophysical and observational properties for a short-period exoplanet system that can maximize the likelihood for observing tidally driven transit-timing variations. We consider several fiducial observational strategies and real exoplanet systems reported to exhibit decay. We show that moderately frequent (a few transits per year) observations may suffice to detect tidal decay within just a few years. Tidally driven timing variations take time to grow to detectable levels, and so we estimate how long that growth takes as a function of timing uncertainties and tidal decay rate and provide thresholds for deciding that tidal decay has been detected.

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arXiv2019

Large Volcanic Event on Io Inferred from Jovian Sodium Nebula Brightening

Using narrow-band images recorded on over 150 nights by the 35 cm coronagraph which comprises PSI's Io Input/Output Facility (IoIO), we detected a 6-month long enhancement in the Jovian sodium nebula. The onset of the enhancement occurred in the mid December 2017 -- early January 2018 timeframe. Sodium emission over the IoIO 0.4 degree field-of-view of was seen to increase through January 2018 and peak in early March 2018. By early June 2018, the surface brightness of the emission returned to the value seen 2017 April -- June, making this the longest such event observed by this technique (Brown & Bouchez 1997, Yoneda et al. 2015) and comparable in length to that observed by the Galileo Dust Detector in 2000 (Krueger et al. 2003). A new IR hot-spot was found on Io near Susanoo/Mulungu paterae between January 2 and 12, however this hot-spot was neither bright nor long-lasting enough to have been independently identified as the source of a major sodium nebula enhancement. Furthermore, no other report of this event has been made despite a significant number of observations of the Jovian system by and in support of NASA's Juno mission. This detection therefore places those observations in valuable context and highlights the importance of synoptic observations by facilities such as IoIO, which provide a global view of neutral material in the Jovian magnetosphere.

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arXiv2014

Evolution of H$_2$O, CO, and CO$_2$ Production in Comet C/2009 P1 Garradd During the 2011-2012 Apparition

We present analysis of high spectral resolution NIR spectra of CO and H$_2$O in comet C/2009 P1 (Garradd) taken during its 2011-2012 apparition with the CSHELL instrument on NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). We also present analysis of observations of atomic oxygen in comet Garradd obtained with the ARCES echelle spectrometer mounted on the ARC 3.5-meter telescope at Apache Point Observatory and the Tull Coude spectrograph on the Harlan J. Smith 2.7-meter telescope at McDonald Observatory. The observations of atomic oxygen serve as a proxy for H$_2$O and CO$_2$. We confirm the high CO abundance in comet Garradd and the asymmetry in the CO/H$_2$O ratio with respect to perihelion reported by previous studies. From the oxygen observations, we infer that the CO$_2$/H$_2$O ratio decreased as the comet moved towards the Sun, which is expected based on current sublimation models. We also infer that the CO$_2$/H$_2$O ratio was higher pre-perihelion than post-perihelion. We observe evidence for the icy grain source of H$_2$O reported by several studies pre-perihelion, and argue that this source is significantly less abundant post-perihelion. Since H$_2$O, CO$_2$, and CO are the primary ices in comets, they drive the activity. We use our measurements of these important volatiles in an attempt to explain the evolution of Garradd's activity over the apparition.

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arXiv2010

GALEX FUV Observations of Comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz): The Ionization Lifetime of Carbon

We present a measurement of the lifetime of ground state atomic carbon, C(^3P), against ionization processes in interplanetary space and compare it to the lifetime expected from the dominant physical processes likely to occur in this medium. Our measurement is based on analysis of a far ultraviolet (FUV) image of comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz) recorded by the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) on 2005 March 1. The bright CI 1561 A and 1657 A multiplets dominate the GALEX FUV band. We used the image to create high S/N radial profiles that extended beyond one million km from the comet nucleus. Our measurements yielded a total carbon lifetime of 7.1 -- 9.6 x 10^5 s (scaled to 1 AU). Which compares favorably to calculations assuming solar photoionization, solar wind proton change exchange and solar wind electron impact ionization are the dominant processes occurring in this medium and that comet Machholz was embedded in the slow solar wind. The shape of the CI profiles inside 3x10^5 km suggests that either the CO lifetime is shorter than previously thought and/or a shorter-lived carbon-bearing parent molecule, such as CH_4 is providing the majority of the carbon in this region of the coma of comet Machholz.

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arXiv2010

GALEX Observations of CS and OH Emission in Comet 9P/Tempel 1 During Deep Impact

GALEX observations of comet 9P/Tempel 1 using the near ultraviolet (NUV) objective grism were made before, during and after the Deep Impact event that occurred on 2005 July 4 at 05:52:03 UT when a 370 kg NASA spacecraft was maneuvered into the path of the comet. The NUV channel provides usable spectral information in a bandpass covering 2000 - 3400 A with a point source spectral resolving power of approximately 100. The primary spectral features in this range include solar continuum scattered from cometary dust and emissions from OH and CS molecular bands centered near 3085 and 2575 A, respectively. In particular, we report the only cometary CS emission detected during this event. The observations allow the evolution of these spectral features to be tracked over the period of the encounter. In general, the NUV emissions observed from Tempel 1 are much fainter than those that have been observed by GALEX from other comets. However, it is possible to derive production rates for the parent molecules of the species detected by GALEX in Tempel 1 and to determine the number of these molecules liberated by the impact. The derived quiescent production rates are Q(H2O) = 6.4e27 molecules/s and Q(CS2) = 6.7e24 molecules/s, while the impact produced an additional 1.6e32 H2O molecules and 1.3e29 CS2 molecules, a similar ratio as in quiescent outgassing.

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