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Jeffrey S. Hazboun

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey S. Hazboun.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Inference on inner galaxy structure via gravitational waves from supermassive binaries

The detection of a stochastic gravitational wave background by pulsar-timing arrays indicates the presence of a population of supermassive black hole binaries. Although the observed spectrum generally matches predictions for orbital evolution driven by gravitational-wave emission in circular orbits, there is a preference for a spectral turnover at the lowest observed frequencies, which may point to substantial hardening during a transition from early environmental influences to later stages dominated by emission. In the vicinity of these binaries, the ejection of stars or dark matter particles through gravitational three-body slingshots efficiently extracts orbital energy, leading to a low-frequency turnover in the spectrum. Here we model how the gravitational-wave spectrum depends on the initial inner galactic profile before scouring by binary ejections while accounting for a range of initial binary eccentricities. By analysing the NANOGrav 15-year data, we find that a parsec-scale galactic-centre density of around $10^6 M_{\odot} \mathrm{pc}^{-3}$ is favoured across most of the parameter space, thus shedding light on the environmental effects that shape black hole evolution and the combined matter density near galaxy centres.

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The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Piecewise Power-Law Reconstruction of the Gravitational-Wave Background

The NANOGrav 15-year (NG15) data set provides evidence for a gravitational-wave background (GWB) signal at nanohertz frequencies, which is expected to originate either from a cosmic population of inspiraling supermassive black-hole binaries or new particle physics in the early Universe. A firm identification of the source of the NG15 signal requires an accurate reconstruction of its frequency spectrum. In this paper, we provide such a spectral characterization of the NG15 signal based on a piecewise power-law (PPL) ansatz that strikes a balance between existing alternatives in the literature. Our PPL reconstruction is more flexible than the standard constant-power-law model, which describes the GWB spectrum in terms of only two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index gamma. Concurrently, it better approximates physically realistic GWB spectra -- especially those of cosmological origin -- than the free spectral model, since the latter allows for arbitrary variations in the GWB amplitude from one frequency bin to the next. Our PPL reconstruction of the NG15 signal relies on individual PPL models with a fixed number of internal nodes (i.e., constant power law, broken power law, doubly broken power law, etc.) that are ultimately combined in a Bayesian model average. The data products resulting from our analysis provide the basis for fast refits of spectral GWB models.

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The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Targeted Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

We present the first targeted searches for continuous gravitational waves (CWs) from 114 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that may host supermassive black hole binaries, using the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. By incorporating electromagnetic priors on sky location, distance, redshift, and CW frequency, our strain and chirp mass upper limits are typically improved by a factor of $\sim 2$ (median 2.2) relative to all-sky limits at the same frequency. Bayesian comparisons against a model including only a Hellings-Downs correlated background disfavors a CW signal for all targets, with a mean Bayes factor of $0.73 \pm 0.32$. Two targets have Bayes factors slightly above unity, but coherence tests, random targeting experiments, and a conservative accounting of the 114-target trials factor all indicate that they are consistent with noise. We use these two candidates as worked examples to illustrate an end-to-end targeted CW search analysis and a suite of follow up tests that future promising candidates would need to pass. We find that the electromagnetic interpretations of both candidates are ambiguous, and we update the constraints on a putative binary in 3C 66B, ruling out part of its previously allowed parameter space. Ultimately, our results demonstrate the current sensitivity of targeted pulsar timing array searches for CWs and define a roadmap for future multimessenger CW detections.

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The SKAO Pulsar Timing Array

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are ensembles of millisecond pulsars observed for years to decades. The primary goal of PTAs is to study gravitational-wave astronomy at nanohertz frequencies, with secondary goals of undertaking other fundamental tests of physics and astronomy. Recently, compelling evidence has emerged in established PTA experiments for the presence of a gravitational-wave background. To accelerate a confident detection of such a signal and then study gravitational-wave emitting sources, it is necessary to observe a larger number of millisecond pulsars to greater timing precision. The SKAO telescopes, which will be a factor of three to four greater in sensitivity compared to any other southern hemisphere facility, are poised to make such an impact. In this chapter, we motivate an SKAO pulsar timing array (SKAO PTA) experiment. We discuss the classes of gravitational waves present in PTA observations and how an SKAO PTA can detect and study them. We then describe the sources that can produce these signals. We discuss the astrophysical noise sources that must be mitigated to undertake the most sensitive searches. We then describe a realistic PTA experiment implemented with the SKA and place it in context alongside other PTA experiments likely ongoing in the 2030s. We describe the techniques necessary to search for gravitational waves in the SKAO PTA and motivate how very long baseline interferometry can improve the sensitivity of an SKAO PTA. The SKAO PTA will provide a view of the Universe complementary to those of the other large facilities of the 2030s.

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FrankenStat I: a New Approach to Pulsar Timing Array Data Combination

In 2023, after more than two decades of searching, pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations around the world announced evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background. It was quickly followed by work from the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA), demonstrating that the results of regional collaborations were consistent with each other. The combination of these datasets is still ongoing and represents a significant investment of time and expertise. In that IPTA comparison, authors of this letter combined the separate datasets in the standard PTA optimal detection statistic for cross-correlations incoherently, that is, the data was combined without fitting a merged timing model across all PTA datasets, treating datasets of the same pulsar as independent, and neglecting the "same pulsar, different datasets" cross-correlations. This work refines that method by extending its core ideas beyond detection statistics and into a full, general data-combination method. We have demonstrated its efficacy and extreme efficiency on simulated data. This new method, \textit{FrankenStat}, is very similar in sensitivity and parameter-constraining power to traditional data combination methods while completing the full data combination in just a few minutes.

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The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Scattering of Pulsars by Free-Floating Objects in Interstellar Space

Free-floating objects (FFOs) in interstellar space$-$rogue planets, brown dwarfs, and large asteroids that are not gravitationally bound to any star$-$are expected to be ubiquitous throughout the Milky Way. Recent microlensing surveys have discovered several free-floating planets that are not bound to any known stellar systems. Additionally, three interstellar objects, namely 1I/'Oumuamua, 2I/Borisov, and 3I/ATLAS, have been detected passing through our solar system on hyperbolic trajectories. In this work, we search for FFOs on hyperbolic orbits that pass near millisecond pulsars (MSPs), where their gravitational influence can induce detectable perturbations in pulse arrival times. Using the NANOGrav 15-year narrowband dataset, which contains high-precision timing data for 68 MSPs, we conduct a search for such hyperbolic scattering events between FFOs and pulsars. Although no statistically significant events were detected, this non-detection enables us to place upper limits on the number density of FFOs as a function of their mass within our local region of the Galaxy. For example, the upper limit on the number density for Jupiter-mass FFOs ($\sim 10^{-2.5} - 10^{-3.5}~M_{\odot}$) obtained from different pulsars ranges from $5.25\times10^{6}~\text{pc}^{-3}$ to $5.37\times10^{9}~\text{pc}^{-3}$, while the upper limit calculated by combining results from all the pulsars is $6.03\times10^{5}~\text{pc}^{-3}$. These results represent the first constraints on FFO population derived from pulsar timing data.

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The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Chromatic Noise Characterization & Mitigation with Time-Domain Kernels

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) have recently entered the detection era, quickly moving beyond the goal of simply improving sensitivity at the lowest frequencies for the sake of observing the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB), and focusing on its accurate spectral characterization. While all PTA collaborations around the world use Fourier-domain Gaussian processes to model the GWB and intrinsic long time-correlated (red) noise, techniques to model the time-correlated radio frequency-dependent (chromatic) processes have varied from collaboration to collaboration. Here we test a new class of models for PTA data, Gaussian processes based on time-domain kernels that model the statistics of the chromatic processes starting from the covariance matrix. As we will show, these models can be effectively equivalent to Fourier-domain models in mitigating chromatic noise. This work presents a method for Bayesian model selection across the various choices of kernel as well as deterministic chromatic models for non-stationary chromatic events and the solar wind. As PTAs turn towards high frequency (>1/yr) sensitivity, the size of the basis used to model these processes will need to increase, and these time-domain models present some computational efficiencies compared to Fourier-domain models.

astro-ph.IM↗

The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: Improved Timing Precision With VLBI Astrometric Priors

Accurate pulsar astrometric estimates play an essential role in almost all high-precision pulsar timing experiments. Traditional pulsar timing techniques refine these estimates by including them as free parameters when fitting a model to observed pulse time-of-arrival measurements. However, reliable sub-milliarcsecond astrometric estimations require years of observations and, even then, power from red noise can be inadvertently absorbed into astrometric parameter fits, biasing the resulting estimations and reducing our sensitivity to red noise processes, including gravitational waves (GWs). In this work, we seek to mitigate these shortcomings by using pulsar astrometric estimates derived from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) as priors for the timing fit. First, we calibrated a frame tie to account for the offsets between the reference frames used in VLBI and timing. Then, we used the VLBI-informed priors and timing-based likelihoods of several astrometric solutions consistent with both techniques to obtain a maximum-posterior astrometric solution. We found offsets between our results and the timing-based astrometric solutions, which, if real, would lead to absorption of spectral power at frequencies of interest for single-source GW searches. However, we do not find significant power absorption due to astrometric fitting at the low-frequency domain of the GW background.

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Rapid Construction of Joint Pulsar Timing Array Datasets: The Lite Method

The International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA)'s second data release (IPTA DR2) combines decades of observations of 65 millisecond pulsars from 7 radio telescopes. IPTA datasets should be the most sensitive datasets to nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs), but take years to assemble, often excluding valuable recent data. To address this, we introduce the IPTA "Lite" analysis, where a Figure of Merit is used to select an optimal PTA dataset to analyze for each pulsar, enabling immediate access to new data and preliminary results prior to full combination. We test the capabilities of the Lite analysis using IPTA DR2, finding that "DR2 Lite" can be used to detect the common red noise process with an amplitude of $A = 4.8^{+1.8}_{-1.8} \times 10^{-15}$ at $γ= 13/3$. This amplitude is slightly large in comparison to the combined analysis, and likely biased high as DR2 Lite is more sensitive to systematic errors from individual pulsars than the full dataset. Furthermore, although there is no strong evidence for Hellings-Downs correlations in IPTA DR2, we still find the full dataset is better at resolving Hellings-Downs correlations than DR2 Lite. Alongside the Lite analysis, we also find that analyzing a subset of pulsars from IPTA DR2, available at a hypothetical "early" stage of combination (EDR2), yields equally competitive results as the full dataset. Looking ahead, the Lite method will enable rapid synthesis of the latest PTA data, offering preliminary GW constraints before the superior full dataset combinations are available.

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The NANOGrav 15 Yr Data Set: Removing Pulsars One by One from the Pulsar Timing Array

Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15-year pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese PTAs. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. To explore the internal consistency of this result we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic gravitational wave background in the NANOGrav 15-year data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data.

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The NANOGrav 15-year Gravitational-Wave Background Methods

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) use an array of millisecond pulsars to search for gravitational waves in the nanohertz regime in pulse time of arrival data. This paper presents rigorous tests of PTA methods, examining their consistency across the relevant parameter space. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms Enterprise and PTMCMCSampler are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster in gravitational wave searches, reducing the required resources facilitating the computation of Bayes factors via thermodynamic integration and sampling a large number of realizations for computing Bayesian false-alarm probabilities. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis methods. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, simulation recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current analyses of PTA data.

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The Anomalous Acceleration of PSR J2043+1711: Long-Period Orbital Companion or Stellar Flyby?

Based on the rate of change of its orbital period, PSR J2043+1711 has a substantial peculiar acceleration of 3.5 $\pm$ 0.8 mm/s/yr, which deviates from the acceleration predicted by equilibrium Milky Way models at a $4σ$ level. The magnitude of the peculiar acceleration is too large to be explained by disequilibrium effects of the Milky Way interacting with orbiting dwarf galaxies ($\sim$1 mm/s/yr), and too small to be caused by period variations due to the pulsar being a redback. We identify and examine two plausible causes for the anomalous acceleration: a stellar flyby, and a long-period orbital companion. We identify a main-sequence star in \textit{Gaia} DR3 and Pan-STARRS DR2 with the correct mass, distance, and on-sky position to potentially explain the observed peculiar acceleration. However, the star and the pulsar system have substantially different proper motions, indicating that they are not gravitationally bound. However, it is possible that this is an unrelated star that just happens to be located near J2043+1711 along our line of sight (chance probability of 1.6\%). Therefore, we also constrain possible orbital parameters for a circumbinary companion in a hierarchical triple system with J2043+1711; the changes in the spindown rate of the pulsar are consistent with an outer object that has an orbital period of 80 kyr, a companion mass of 0.3 $M_\odot$ (indicative of a white dwarf or low-mass star), and a semi-major axis of 2000 AU. Continued timing and/or future faint optical observations of J2043+1711 may eventually allow us to differentiate between these scenarios.

astro-ph.SR↗

The NANOGrav 15 yr data set: Posterior predictive checks for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Their analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks. After fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications. We use the replications to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients are extreme. We recover Hellings--Downs correlations in simulated data sets at significance levels consistent with the correlations measured in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. A similar test on spectral coefficients shows that their values in real data are not extreme compared to their distributions across replications. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2 $σ$ and 3 $σ$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background.

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The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a search for nonlinear gravitational wave memory in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find no significant evidence for memory signals in the dataset, with a maximum Bayes factor of 3.1 in favor of a model including memory. We therefore place upper limits on the strain of potential gravitational wave memory events as a function of sky location and observing epoch. We find upper limits that are not always more constraining than previous NANOGrav results. We show that it is likely due to the increase in common red noise between the 12.5-year and 15-year NANOGrav datasets.

gr-qc↗

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Running of the Spectral Index

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index γ. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, γ_run(f) = γ+ β\ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter βconsistent with no running, β\in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero β. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA.

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A sensitivity curve approach to tuning a pulsar timing array in the detection era

As pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) transition into the detection era of the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB), it is important for PTA collaborations to review and possibly revise their observing campaigns. The detection of a ''single source'' would be a boon for gravitational astrophysics, as such a source would emit gravitational waves for millions of years in the PTA frequency band. Here we present generic methods for studying the effects of various observational strategies, taking advantage of detector sensitivity curves, i.e., noise-averaged, frequency-domain detection statistics. The statistical basis for these methods is presented along with myriad examples of how to tune a detector towards single, deterministic signals or a stochastic background. We demonstrate that trading observations of the worst pulsars for high cadence campaigns on the best pulsars increases sensitivity to single sources at high frequencies while hedging losses in GWB and single source sensitivity at low frequencies. We also find that sky-targeted observing campaigns yield minimal sensitivity improvements compared with other PTA tuning options. Lastly, we show the importance of the uncorrelated half of the GWB, i.e. the pulsar-term, as an increasingly prominent sources of noise and show the impact of this emerging noise source on various PTA configurations.

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Pulse Profile Variability of PSR J1022+1001 in NANOGrav Data

Pulse profile stability is a central assumption of standard pulsar timing methods. Thus, it is important for pulsar timing array experiments such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) to account for any pulse profile variability present in their data sets. We show that in the NANOGrav 15-yr data set, the integrated pulse profile of PSR J1022+1001 as seen by the Arecibo radio telescope at 430, 1380, and 2030 MHz varies considerably in its shape from observation to observation. We investigate the possibility that this is due to the "ideal feed assumption" (IFA), on which NANOGrav's routine polarization calibration procedure relies. PSR J1022+1001 is $\sim 90\%$ polarized in one pulse profile component, and also has significant levels of circular polarization. Time-dependent deviations in the feed's polarimetric response (PR) could cause mixing between the intensity I and the other Stokes parameters, leading to the observed variability. We calibrate the PR using a mixture of Measurement Equation Modeling and Measurement Equation Template Matching techniques. The resulting profiles are no less variable than those calibrated using the IFA method, nor do they provide an improvement in the timing quality of this pulsar. We observe the pulse shape in 25-MHz bandwidths to vary consistently across the band, which cannot be explained by interstellar scintillation in combination with profile evolution with frequency. Instead, we favor phenomena intrinsic to the pulsar as the cause.

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The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Harmonic Analysis of the Pulsar Angular Correlations

Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational wave background with the Hellings-Downs angular correlations, expected from general relativity. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominately quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlations into a sum of Legendre polynomials and use a Bayesian analysis to constrain their coefficients with the 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). When including Legendre polynomials with multipoles $\ell \geq 2$, we only find a significant signal in the quadrupole with an amplitude consistent with general relativity and non-zero at the $\sim 95\%$ confidence level and a Bayes factor of 200. When we include multipoles $\ell \leq 1$, the Bayes factor evidence for quadrupole correlations decreases by more than an order of magnitude due to evidence for a monopolar signal at approximately 4 nHz which has also been noted in previous analyses of the NANOGrav 15-year data. Further work needs to be done in order to better characterize the properties of this monopolar signal and its effect on the evidence for quadrupolar angular correlations.

astro-ph.HE↗