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Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey S. Rosenthal.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Estimating MCMC convergence rates using common random number simulation

This paper presents how to use common random number (CRN) simulation to evaluate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) convergence to stationarity. We provide an upper bound on the Wasserstein distance of a Markov chain to its stationary distribution after $N$ steps in terms of averages over CRN simulations. We apply our bound to Gibbs samplers on a model related to James-Stein estimators, a variance component model, and a Bayesian linear regression model. Using our examples, we show that the CRN-based simulation combined with a coalescing condition to generate a total variation bound converges to zero much more faster than the available drift and minorization bounds, while also converging at the same rate as the one-shot coupling bound.

stat.CO↗

Markov Chain CLTs: Resolving Open Problems

Markov chain central limit theorems (CLTs) and their associated variances are very important for implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms among other applications. Häggström and Rosenthal (2007) presented various results regarding the equality of different formulae for this variance and also posed seven open problems. We resolve all seven in this paper. For stationary, ergodic and reversible chains, we prove that whenever the normalized partial sums satisfy a $\sqrt{n}$-CLT, the variance limit is finite if the function is square-integrable, otherwise undefined. Moreover, failure of the $\sqrt{n}$-CLT forces the normalized partial sums to be non-tight. We also show that Roberts' holding-probability condition precludes a CLT even without assuming reversibility or square-integrability. Finally, we develop a general principle that expresses Fourier coefficients as the autocovariances of an ergodic nonreversible Markov chain.

math.PR↗

Upper and lower bounds on the subgeometric convergence of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo

We investigate lower bounds on the subgeometric convergence of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo under any adaptation strategy. In particular, we prove general lower bounds in total variation and on the weak convergence rate under general adaptation plans. If the adaptation diminishes sufficiently fast, we also develop comparable convergence rate upper bounds that are capable of approximately matching the convergence rate in the subgeometric lower bound. These results provide insight into the optimal design of adaptation strategies and also limitations on the convergence behavior of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo. Applications to an adaptive unadjusted Langevin algorithm as well as adaptive Metropolis-Hastings with independent proposals and random-walk proposals are explored.

math.ST↗

Bayesian inference for hidden Markov models under genuine multimodality with application to ecological time series

Bayesian inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs) can be challenging due to the presence of multimodality in the likelihood function, and consequently in the joint posterior distribution, even after correcting for label switching. The parallel tempering (PT) algorithm, a state-space augmentation method, is a widely used approach for dealing with multimodal distributions. Nevertheless, standard implementation of the PT algorithm may not always be sufficient to effectively explore the high-dimensional, complex multimodal posterior distributions that arise in HMMs. In this work, we demonstrate common pitfalls when implementing the PT algorithm for HMMs, approaches to remedy them, and introduce new non-informative prior distributions that facilitate effective posterior distribution exploration. We analyse time series of blue whale dive data with two 3-state HMMs in a Bayesian framework, one of which includes a categorical covariate in the transition probability matrix to account for the effect of sound stimuli on the whale's behavior. We demonstrate how effective implementation of the modified PT algorithm for Bayesian inference leads to effective exploration of the resultant multimodal posterior distribution and how that affects inference for the underlying movement patterns of the blue whales.

stat.AP↗

Adaptive Importance Tempering: A flexible approach to improve computational efficiency of Metropolis Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms on binary spaces

Based on the algorithm Informed Importance Tempering (IIT) proposed by Li et al. (2023) we propose an algorithm that uses an adaptive bounded balancing function. We argue why implementing parallel tempering where each replica uses a rejection free MCMC algorithm can be inefficient in high dimensional spaces and show how the proposed adaptive algorithm can overcome these computational inefficiencies. We present two equivalent versions of the adaptive algorithm (A-IIT and SS-IIT) and establish that both have the same limiting distribution, making either suitable for use within a parallel tempering framework. To evaluate performance, we benchmark the adaptive algorithm against several MCMC methods: IIT, Rejection free Metropolis-Hastings (RF-MH) and RF-MH using a multiplicity list. Simulation results demonstrate that Adaptive IIT identifies high-probability states more efficiently than these competing algorithms in high-dimensional binary spaces with multiple modes.

stat.CO↗

Exploring the generalizability of the optimal 0.234 acceptance rate in random-walk Metropolis and parallel tempering algorithms

For random-walk Metropolis (RWM) and parallel tempering (PT) algorithms, an asymptotic acceptance rate of around 0.234 is known to be optimal in certain high-dimensional limits. However, its practical relevance is uncertain due to restrictive derivation conditions. We synthesise previous theoretical advances in extending the 0.234 acceptance rate to more general settings, and demonstrate its applicability with a comprehensive empirical simulation study on examples examining how acceptance rates affect Expected Squared Jumping Distance (ESJD). Our experiments show the optimality of the 0.234 acceptance rate for RWM is surprisingly robust even in lower dimensions across various non-spherically symmetric proposal distributions, multimodal target distributions that may not have an i.i.d. product density, and curved Rosenbrock target distributions with nonlinear correlation structure. Parallel tempering experiments also show that the idealized 0.234 spacing of inverse temperatures may be approximately optimal for low dimensions and non i.i.d. product target densities, and that constructing an inverse temperature ladder with spacings given by a swap acceptance of 0.234 is a viable strategy.

stat.CO↗

Quantifying the Speed-Up from Non-Reversibility in MCMC Tempering Algorithms

We investigate the increase in efficiency of simulated and parallel tempering MCMC algorithms when using non-reversible updates to give them "momentum". By making a connection to a certain simple discrete Markov chain, we show that, under appropriate assumptions, the non-reversible algorithms still exhibit diffusive behaviour, just on a different time scale. We use this to argue that the optimally scaled versions of the non-reversible algorithms are indeed more efficient than the optimally scaled versions of their traditional reversible counterparts, but only by a modest speed-up factor of about 42%.

math.ST↗

Weak convergence of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo

This article develops general conditions for weak convergence of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo processes and is shown to imply a weak law of large numbers for bounded Lipschitz continuous functions. This allows an estimation theory for adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo where previously developed theory in total variation may fail or be difficult to establish. Extensions of weak convergence to general Wasserstein distances are established along with a weak law of large numbers for possibly unbounded Lipschitz functions. Applications are applied to auto-regressive processes in various settings, unadjusted Langevin processes, and adaptive Metropolis-Hastings.

math.ST↗

Comparing the Efficiency of General State Space Reversible MCMC Algorithms

We review and provide new proofs of results used to compare the efficiency of estimates generated by reversible MCMC algorithms on a general state space. We provide a full proof of the formula for the asymptotic variance for real-valued functionals on $ϕ$-irreducible reversible Markov chains, first introduced by Kipnis and Varadhan. Given two Markov kernels $P$ and $Q$ with stationary measure $π$, we say that the Markov kernel $P$ efficiency dominates the Markov kernel $Q$ if the asymptotic variance with respect to $P$ is at most the asymptotic variance with respect to $Q$ for every real-valued functional $f\in L^2(π)$. Assuming only a basic background in functional analysis, we prove that for two $ϕ$-irreducible reversible Markov kernels $P$ and $Q$, $P$ efficiency dominates $Q$ if and only if the operator $Q-P$, where $P$ is the operator on $L^2(π)$ that maps $f\mapsto\int f(y)P(\cdot,dy)$ and similarly for $Q$, is positive on $L^2(π)$, i.e. $\langle f,(Q-P)f\rangle\geq0$ for every $f\in L^2(π)$. We use this result to show that reversible antithetic kernels are more efficient than i.i.d. sampling, and that efficiency dominance is a partial ordering on $ϕ$-irreducible reversible Markov kernels. We also provide a proof based on that of Tierney that Peskun dominance is a sufficient condition for efficiency dominance for reversible kernels. Using these results, we show that Markov kernels formed by randomly selecting other "component" Markov kernels will always efficiency dominate another Markov kernel formed in this way, as long as the component kernels of the former efficiency dominate those of the latter. These results on the efficiency dominance of combining component kernels generalises the results on the efficiency dominance of combined chains introduced by Neal and Rosenthal from finite state spaces to general state spaces.

math.PR↗

Efficiency of reversible MCMC methods: elementary derivations and applications to composite methods

We review criteria for comparing the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with respect to the asymptotic variance of estimates of expectations of functions of state, and show how such criteria can justify ways of combining improvements to MCMC methods. We say that a chain on a finite state space with transition matrix $P$ efficiency-dominates one with transition matrix $Q$ if for every function of state it has lower (or equal) asymptotic variance. We give elementary proofs of some previous results regarding efficiency dominance, leading to a self-contained demonstration that a reversible chain with transition matrix $P$ efficiency-dominates a reversible chain with transition matrix $Q$ if and only if none of the eigenvalues of $Q-P$ are negative. This allows us to conclude that modifying a reversible MCMC method to improve its efficiency will also improve the efficiency of a method that randomly chooses either this or some other reversible method, and to conclude that improving the efficiency of a reversible update for one component of state (as in Gibbs sampling) will improve the overall efficiency of a reversible method that combines this and other updates. It also explains how antithetic MCMC can be more efficient than i.i.d. sampling. We also establish conditions that can guarantee that a method is not efficiency-dominated by any other method.

math.PR↗

Football Group Draw Probabilities and Corrections

This paper considers the challenge of designing football group draw mechanisms which have the uniform distribution over all valid draw assignments, but are also entertaining, practical, and transparent. We explain how to simulate the FIFA Sequential Draw method, to compute the non-uniformity of its draws by comparison to a uniform Rejection Sampler. We then propose two practical methods of achieving the uniform distribution while still using balls and bowls in a way which is suitable for a televised draw. The solutions can also be tried interactively.

stat.AP↗

Sampling via Rejection-Free Partial Neighbor Search

The Metropolis algorithm involves producing a Markov chain to converge to a specified target density $π$. In order to improve its efficiency, we can use the Rejection-Free version of the Metropolis algorithm, which avoids the inefficiency of rejections by evaluating all neighbors. Rejection-Free can be made more efficient through the use of parallelism hardware. However, for some specialized hardware, such as Digital Annealing Unit, the number of units will limit the number of neighbors being considered at each step. Hence, we propose an enhanced version of Rejection-Free known as Partial Neighbor Search, which only considers a portion of the neighbors while using the Rejection-Free technique. This method will be tested on several examples to demonstrate its effectiveness and advantages under different circumstances.

stat.CO↗

Optimization via Rejection-Free Partial Neighbor Search

Simulated Annealing using Metropolis steps at decreasing temperatures is widely used to solve complex combinatorial optimization problems. In order to improve its efficiency, we can use the Rejection-Free version of the Metropolis algorithm, which avoids the inefficiency of rejections by considering all the neighbors at every step. As a solution to avoid the algorithm from becoming stuck in local extreme areas, we propose an enhanced version of Rejection-Free called Partial Neighbor Search (PNS), which only considers random parts of the neighbors while applying Rejection-Free. We demonstrate the superior performance of the Rejection-Free PNS algorithm by applying these methods to several examples, such as the QUBO question, the Knapsack problem, the 3R3XOR problem, and the quadratic programming.

math.OC↗

Convergence rate bounds for iterative random functions using one-shot coupling

One-shot coupling is a method of bounding the convergence rate between two copies of a Markov chain in total variation distance, which was first introduced by Roberts and Rosenthal and generalized by Madras and Sezer. The method is divided into two parts: the contraction phase, when the chains converge in expected distance and the coalescing phase, which occurs at the last iteration, when there is an attempt to couple. One-shot coupling does not require the use of any exogenous variables like a drift function or a minorization constant. In this paper, we summarize the one-shot coupling method into the One-Shot Coupling Theorem. We then apply the theorem to two families of Markov chains: the random functional autoregressive process and the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) process. We provide multiple examples of how the theorem can be used on various models including ones in high dimensions. These examples illustrate how the theorem's conditions can be verified in a straightforward way. The one-shot coupling method appears to generate tight geometric convergence rate bounds.

stat.CO↗

Complexity Results for MCMC derived from Quantitative Bounds

This paper considers how to obtain MCMC quantitative convergence bounds which can be translated into tight complexity bounds in high-dimensional {settings}. We propose a modified drift-and-minorization approach, which establishes generalized drift conditions defined in subsets of the state space. The subsets are called the "large sets", and are chosen to rule out some "bad" states which have poor drift property when the dimension of the state space gets large. Using the "large sets" together with a "fitted family of drift functions", a quantitative bound can be obtained which can be translated into a tight complexity bound. As a demonstration, we analyze several Gibbs samplers and obtain complexity upper bounds for the mixing time. In particular, for one example of Gibbs sampler which is related to the James--Stein estimator, we show that the number of iterations required for the Gibbs sampler to converge is constant under certain conditions on the observed data and the initial state. It is our hope that this modified drift-and-minorization approach can be employed in many other specific examples to obtain complexity bounds for high-dimensional Markov chains.

stat.CO↗

Sampling by Divergence Minimization

We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that is designed to sample from target distributions with irregular geometry using an adaptive scheme. In cases where targets exhibit non-Gaussian behaviour, we propose that adaption should be regional rather than global. Our algorithm minimizes the information projection component of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the proposal and target distributions to encourage proposals that are distributed similarly to the regional geometry of the target. Unlike traditional adaptive MCMC, this procedure rapidly adapts to the geometry of the target's current position as it explores the surrounding space without the need for many preexisting samples. The divergence minimization algorithms are tested on target distributions with irregularly shaped modes and we provide results demonstrating the effectiveness of our methods.

stat.CO↗

Dimension-free Mixing for High-dimensional Bayesian Variable Selection

Yang et al. (2016) proved that the symmetric random walk Metropolis--Hastings algorithm for Bayesian variable selection is rapidly mixing under mild high-dimensional assumptions. We propose a novel MCMC sampler using an informed proposal scheme, which we prove achieves a much faster mixing time that is independent of the number of covariates, under the same assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first high-dimensional result which rigorously shows that the mixing rate of informed MCMC methods can be fast enough to offset the computational cost of local posterior evaluation. Motivated by the theoretical analysis of our sampler, we further propose a new approach called "two-stage drift condition" to studying convergence rates of Markov chains on general state spaces, which can be useful for obtaining tight complexity bounds in high-dimensional settings. The practical advantages of our algorithm are illustrated by both simulation studies and real data analysis.

stat.ME↗

Introducing a new high-resolution handwritten digits data set with writer characteristics

The contributions in this article are two-fold. First, we introduce a new hand-written digit data set that we collected. It contains high-resolution images of hand-written The contributions in this article are two-fold. First, we introduce a new handwritten digit data set that we collected. It contains high-resolution images of handwritten digits together with various writer characteristics which are not available in the well-known MNIST database. The multiple writer characteristics gathered are a novelty of our data set and create new research opportunities. The data set is publicly available online. Second, we analyse this new data set. We begin with simple supervised tasks. We assess the predictability of the writer characteristics gathered, the effect of using some of those characteristics as predictors in classification task and the effect of higher resolution images on classification accuracy. We also explore semi-supervised applications; we can leverage the high quantity of handwritten digits data sets already existing online to improve the accuracy of various classifications task with noticeable success. Finally, we also demonstrate the generative perspective offered by this new data set; we are able to generate images that mimics the writing style of specific writers. The data set has unique and distinct features and our analysis establishes benchmarks and showcases some of the new opportunities made possible with this new data set.

cs.CV↗