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Jeffrey T. Leek

Publications and source records attributed to Jeffrey T. Leek.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PanCanBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models in Pancreatic Oncology

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved expert-level performance on standardized examinations, yet multiple-choice accuracy poorly reflects real-world clinical utility and safety. As patients and clinicians increasingly use LLMs for guidance on complex conditions such as pancreatic cancer, evaluation must extend beyond general medical knowledge. Existing frameworks, such as HealthBench, rely on simulated queries and lack disease-specific depth. Moreover, high rubric-based scores do not ensure factual correctness, underscoring the need to assess hallucinations. We developed a human-in-the-loop pipeline to create expert rubrics for de-identified patient questions from the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network (PanCAN). The resulting benchmark, PanCanBench, includes 3,130 question-specific criteria across 282 authentic patient questions. We evaluated 22 proprietary and open-source LLMs using an LLM-as-a-judge framework, measuring clinical completeness, factual accuracy, and web-search integration. Models showed substantial variation in rubric-based completeness, with scores ranging from 46.5% to 82.3%. Factual errors were common, with hallucination rates (the percentages of responses containing at least one factual error) ranging from 6.0% for Gemini-2.5 Pro and GPT-4o to 53.8% for Llama-3.1-8B. Importantly, newer reasoning-optimized models did not consistently improve factuality: although o3 achieved the highest rubric score, it produced inaccuracies more frequently than other GPT-family models. Web-search integration did not inherently guarantee better responses. The average score changed from 66.8% to 63.9% for Gemini-2.5 Pro and from 73.8% to 72.8% for GPT-5 when web search was enabled. Synthetic AI-generated rubrics inflated absolute scores by 17.9 points on average while generally maintaining similar relative ranking.

cs.CL↗

Do We Really Even Need Data? A Modern Look at Drawing Inference with Predicted Data

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g., rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from pre-trained algorithms as substitutes for missing or unobserved data. Though appealing for financial and logistical reasons, using standard tools for inference can misrepresent the association between independent variables and the outcome of interest when the true, unobserved outcome is replaced by a predicted value. In this paper, we characterize the statistical challenges inherent to drawing inference with predicted data (IPD) and show that high predictive accuracy does not guarantee valid downstream inference. We show that all such failures reduce to statistical notions of (i) bias, when predictions systematically shift the estimand or distort relationships among variables, and (ii) variance, when uncertainty from the prediction model and the intrinsic variability of the true data are ignored. We then review recent methods for conducting IPD and discuss how this framework is deeply rooted in classical statistical theory. We then comment on some open questions and interesting avenues for future work in this area, and end with some comments on how to use predicted data in scientific studies that is both transparent and statistically principled.

stat.ML↗

A Moment-Based Generalization to Post-Prediction Inference

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are increasingly used to generate data for downstream analyses, yet naively treating these predictions as true observations can lead to biased results and incorrect inference. Wang et al. (2020) proposed a method, post-prediction inference, which calibrates inference by modeling the relationship between AI/ML-predicted and observed outcomes in a small, gold-standard sample. Since then, several methods have been developed for inference with predicted data. We revisit Wang et al. in light of these recent developments. We reflect on their assumptions and offer a simple extension of their method which relaxes these assumptions. Our extension (1) yields unbiased point estimates under standard conditions and (2) incorporates a simple scaling factor to preserve calibration variability. In extensive simulations, we show that our method maintains nominal Type I error rates, reduces bias, and achieves proper coverage.

stat.ME↗

ipd: An R Package for Conducting Inference on Predicted Data

Summary: ipd is an open-source R software package for the downstream modeling of an outcome and its associated features where a potentially sizable portion of the outcome data has been imputed by an artificial intelligence or machine learning (AI/ML) prediction algorithm. The package implements several recent proposed methods for inference on predicted data (IPD) with a single, user-friendly wrapper function, ipd. The package also provides custom print, summary, tidy, glance, and augment methods to facilitate easy model inspection. This document introduces the ipd software package and provides a demonstration of its basic usage. Availability: ipd is freely available on CRAN or as a developer version at our GitHub page: github.com/ipd-tools/ipd. Full documentation, including detailed instructions and a usage `vignette' are available at github.com/ipd-tools/ipd. Contact: jtleek@fredhutch.org and tylermc@uw.edu

stat.ME↗

From Narratives to Numbers: Valid Inference Using Language Model Predictions from Verbal Autopsy Narratives

In settings where most deaths occur outside the healthcare system, verbal autopsies (VAs) are a common tool to monitor trends in causes of death (COD). VAs are interviews with a surviving caregiver or relative that are used to predict the decedent's COD. Turning VAs into actionable insights for researchers and policymakers requires two steps (i) predicting likely COD using the VA interview and (ii) performing inference with predicted CODs (e.g. modeling the breakdown of causes by demographic factors using a sample of deaths). In this paper, we develop a method for valid inference using outcomes (in our case COD) predicted from free-form text using state-of-the-art NLP techniques. This method, which we call multiPPI++, extends recent work in "prediction-powered inference" to multinomial classification. We leverage a suite of NLP techniques for COD prediction and, through empirical analysis of VA data, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in handling transportability issues. multiPPI++ recovers ground truth estimates, regardless of which NLP model produced predictions and regardless of whether they were produced by a more accurate predictor like GPT-4-32k or a less accurate predictor like KNN. Our findings demonstrate the practical importance of inference correction for public health decision-making and suggests that if inference tasks are the end goal, having a small amount of contextually relevant, high quality labeled data is essential regardless of the NLP algorithm.

cs.CL↗

Do We Really Even Need Data?

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g. rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from pre-trained algorithms as outcome variables. Though appealing for financial and logistical reasons, using standard tools for inference can misrepresent the association between independent variables and the outcome of interest when the true, unobserved outcome is replaced by a predicted value. In this paper, we characterize the statistical challenges inherent to this so-called ``inference with predicted data'' problem and elucidate three potential sources of error: (i) the relationship between predicted outcomes and their true, unobserved counterparts, (ii) robustness of the machine learning model to resampling or uncertainty about the training data, and (iii) appropriately propagating not just bias but also uncertainty from predictions into the ultimate inference procedure.

stat.ME↗

Evaluation of software impact designed for biomedical research: Are we measuring what's meaningful?

Software is vital for the advancement of biology and medicine. Analysis of usage and impact metrics can help developers determine user and community engagement, justify additional funding, encourage additional use, identify unanticipated use cases, and help define improvement areas. However, there are challenges associated with these analyses including distorted or misleading metrics, as well as ethical and security concerns. More attention to the nuances involved in capturing impact across the spectrum of biological software is needed. Furthermore, some tools may be especially beneficial to a small audience, yet may not have compelling typical usage metrics. We propose more general guidelines, as well as strategies for more specific types of software. We highlight outstanding issues regarding how communities measure or evaluate software impact. To get a deeper understanding of current practices for software evaluations, we performed a survey of participants in the Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR) program funded by the National Cancer Institute (NCI). We also investigated software among this community and others to assess how often infrastructure that supports such evaluations is implemented and how this impacts rates of papers describing usage of the software. We find that developers recognize the utility of analyzing software usage, but struggle to find the time or funding for such analyses. We also find that infrastructure such as social media presence, more in-depth documentation, the presence of software health metrics, and clear information on how to contact developers seem to be associated with increased usage rates. Our findings can help scientific software developers make the most out of evaluations of their software.

cs.SE↗

Motivation, inclusivity, and realism should drive data science education

Data science education provides tremendous opportunities but remains inaccessible to many communities. Increasing the accessibility of data science to these communities not only benefits the individuals entering data science, but also increases the field's innovation and potential impact as a whole. Education is the most scalable solution to meet these needs, but many data science educators lack formal training in education. Our group has led education efforts for a variety of audiences: from professional scientists to high school students to lay audiences. These experiences have helped form our teaching philosophy which we have summarized into three main ideals: 1) motivation, 2) inclusivity, and 3) realism. To put these ideals better into practice, we also aim to iteratively update our teaching approaches and curriculum as we find ways to better reach these ideals. In this manuscript we discuss these ideals as well practical ideas for how to implement these philosophies in the classroom.

cs.CY↗

Diversifying the Genomic Data Science Research Community

Over the last 20 years, there has been an explosion of genomic data collected for disease association, functional analyses, and other large-scale discoveries. At the same time, there have been revolutions in cloud computing that enable computational and data science research, while making data accessible to anyone with a web browser and an internet connection. However, students at institutions with limited resources have received relatively little exposure to curricula or professional development opportunities that lead to careers in genomic data science. To broaden participation in genomics research, the scientific community needs to support students, faculty, and administrators at Underserved Institutions (UIs) including Community Colleges, Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic-Serving Institutions, and Tribal Colleges and Universities in taking advantage of these tools in local educational and research programs. We have formed the Genomic Data Science Community Network (http://www.gdscn.org/) to identify opportunities and support broadening access to cloud-enabled genomic data science. Here, we provide a summary of the priorities for faculty members at UIs, as well as administrators, funders, and R1 researchers to consider as we create a more diverse genomic data science community.

q-bio.OT↗

Open-source Tools for Training Resources -- OTTR

Data science and informatics tools are developing at a blistering rate, but their users often lack the educational background or resources to efficiently apply the methods to their research. Training resources often deprecate because their maintenance is not prioritized by funding, giving teams little time to devote to such endeavors. Our group has developed Open-source Tools for Training Resources (OTTR) to offer greater efficiency and flexibility for creating and maintaining online course content. OTTR empowers creators to customize their work and allows for a simple workflow to publish using multiple platforms. OTTR allows content creators to publish material to multiple massive online learner communities using familiar rendering mechanics. OTTR allows the incorporation of pedagogical practices like formative and summative assessments in the form of multiple choice questions and fill in the blank problems that are automatically graded. No local installation of any software is required to begin creating content with OTTR. Thus far, 15 courses have been created with OTTR repository template. By using the OTTR system, the maintenance workload for updating these courses across platforms has been drastically reduced.

cs.CY↗

Linking open-source code commits and MOOC grades to evaluate massive online open peer review

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have been used by students as a low-cost and low-touch educational credential in a variety of fields. Understanding the grading mechanisms behind these course assignments is important for evaluating MOOC credentials. A common approach to grading free-response assignments is massive scale peer-review, especially used for assignments that are not easy to grade programmatically. It is difficult to assess these approaches since the responses typically require human evaluation. Here we link data from public code repositories on GitHub and course grades for a large massive-online open course to study the dynamics of massive scale peer review. This has important implications for understanding the dynamics of difficult to grade assignments. Since the research was not hypothesis-driven, we described the results in an exploratory framework. We find three distinct clusters of repeated peer-review submissions and use these clusters to study how grades change in response to changes in code submissions. Our exploration also leads to an important observation that massive scale peer-review scores are highly variable, increase, on average, with repeated submissions, and changes in scores are not closely tied to the code changes that form the basis for the re-submissions.

cs.CY↗

Ari: The Automated R Instructor

We present the ari package for automatically generating technology-focused educational videos. The goal of the package is to create reproducible videos, with the ability to change and update video content seamlessly. We present several examples of generating videos including using R Markdown slide decks, PowerPoint slides, or simple images as source material. We also discuss how ari can help instructors reach new audiences through programmatically translating materials into other languages.

cs.MM↗

The importance of transparency and reproducibility in artificial intelligence research

In their study, McKinney et al. showed the high potential of artificial intelligence for breast cancer screening. However, the lack of detailed methods and computer code undermines its scientific value. We identify obstacles hindering transparent and reproducible AI research as faced by McKinney et al and provide solutions with implications for the broader field.

stat.AP↗

Tools for analyzing R code the tidy way

With the current emphasis on reproducibility and replicability, there is an increasing need to examine how data analyses are conducted. In order to analyze the between researcher variability in data analysis choices as well as the aspects within the data analysis pipeline that contribute to the variability in results, we have created two R packages: matahari and tidycode. These packages build on methods created for natural language processing; rather than allowing for the processing of natural language, we focus on R code as the substrate of interest. The matahari package facilitates the logging of everything that is typed in the R console or in an R script in a tidy data frame. The tidycode package contains tools to allow for analyzing R calls in a tidy manner. We demonstrate the utility of these packages as well as walk through two examples.

stat.CO↗

A glass half full interpretation of the replicability of psychological science

A recent study of the replicability of key psychological findings is a major contribution toward understanding the human side of the scientific process. Despite the careful and nuanced analysis reported in the paper, mass and social media adhered to the simple narrative that only 36% of the studies replicated their original results. Here we show that 77% of the replication effect sizes reported were within a prediction interval based on the original effect size. In this light, the results of Reproducibility Project: Psychology can be viewed as a positive result for the scientific process.

stat.AP↗

Reproducible Research Can Still Be Wrong: Adopting a Prevention Approach

Reproducibility, the ability to recompute results, and replicability, the chances other experimenters will achieve a consistent result, are two foundational characteristics of successful scientific research. Consistent findings from independent investigators are the primary means by which scientific evidence accumulates for or against an hypothesis. And yet, of late there has been a crisis of confidence among researchers worried about the rate at which studies are either reproducible or replicable. In order to maintain the integrity of science research and maintain the public's trust in science, the scientific community must ensure reproducibility and replicability by engaging in a more preventative approach that greatly expands data analysis education and routinely employs software tools.

stat.AP↗

Gene set bagging for estimating replicability of gene set analyses

Background: Significance analysis plays a major role in identifying and ranking genes, transcription factor binding sites, DNA methylation regions, and other high-throughput features for association with disease. We propose a new approach, called gene set bagging, for measuring the stability of ranking procedures using predefined gene sets. Gene set bagging involves resampling the original high-throughput data, performing gene-set analysis on the resampled data, and confirming that biological categories replicate. This procedure can be thought of as bootstrapping gene-set analysis and can be used to determine which are the most reproducible gene sets. Results: Here we apply this approach to two common genomics applications: gene expression and DNA methylation. Even with state-of-the-art statistical ranking procedures, significant categories in a gene set enrichment analysis may be unstable when subjected to resampling. Conclusions: We demonstrate that gene lists are not necessarily stable, and therefore additional steps like gene set bagging can improve biological inference of gene set analysis.

stat.ME↗

Empirical estimates suggest most published medical research is true

The accuracy of published medical research is critical both for scientists, physicians and patients who rely on these results. But the fundamental belief in the medical literature was called into serious question by a paper suggesting most published medical research is false. Here we adapt estimation methods from the genomics community to the problem of estimating the rate of false positives in the medical literature using reported P-values as the data. We then collect P-values from the abstracts of all 77,430 papers published in The Lancet, The Journal of the American Medical Association, The New England Journal of Medicine, The British Medical Journal, and The American Journal of Epidemiology between 2000 and 2010. We estimate that the overall rate of false positives among reported results is 14% (s.d. 1%), contrary to previous claims. We also find there is not a significant increase in the estimated rate of reported false positive results over time (0.5% more FP per year, P = 0.18) or with respect to journal submissions (0.1% more FP per 100 submissions, P = 0.48). Statistical analysis must allow for false positives in order to make claims on the basis of noisy data. But our analysis suggests that the medical literature remains a reliable record of scientific progress.

stat.AP↗