arXiv subjects

Jefim Vogel

Publications and source records attributed to Jefim Vogel.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The economic alignment problem of artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing exponentially and is likely to have profound impacts on human wellbeing, social equity, and environmental sustainability. Here we argue that the "alignment problem" in AI research is also an economic alignment problem, as developing advanced AI within a growth-oriented economic system is likely to increase social, environmental, and existential risks. We show that post-growth research offers concepts and policies that could address the economic alignment problem and substantially reduce AI risks, such as by replacing optimisation with satisficing, using the Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries to guide development, and curbing systemic rebound with resource caps. We propose governance and business reforms that treat AI as a commons and prioritise tool-like autonomy-enhancing systems over agentic AI. Finally, we argue that the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) requires new economic theories and models, for which post-growth scholarship provides a strong foundation.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Modelling the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) and its response to policies

Given the challenge of achieving societal welfare in an environmentally sustainable way, the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) has emerged as an alternative indicator of progress in response to critiques of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The ISEW compares the benefits of economic activity with its social and environmental costs. So far, most studies empirically analyse the ISEW for past developments, while no studies have simulated the ISEW using a dynamic macroeconomic model. We address this important gap by incorporating the ISEW into COMPASS, an ecological macroeconomic model that features the Doughnut of biophysical boundaries and social thresholds. First, we analyse how the ISEW is affected by three social and environmental policies: a carbon tax, income redistribution, and working-time reduction. We find that the ISEW grows in all scenarios. The strongest improvement over business-as-usual arises when all policies are combined, while the individual policies mostly affect the ISEW positively. Only in the case of working-time reduction, the ISEW decreases. Our study underscores the benefit of dynamically modelling the ISEW for anticipating the net effect of multiple impulses and their interconnections on the indicator. Second, we explore how the ISEW compares to GDP and the Doughnut when evaluating social and environmental policies. Our results suggest that the ISEW is better than GDP at capturing their effects, but it omits the full environmental costs of growth. We argue that the Doughnut, with its comprehensive picture of biophysical boundaries and social thresholds, provides better guidance for policymakers striving for sustainable wellbeing.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

What is required for a post-growth model?

Post-growth has emerged as an umbrella term for various sustainability visions that advocate the pursuit of environmental sustainability, social equity, and human wellbeing, while questioning the continued pursuit of economic growth. Although there are increasing calls to include post-growth scenarios in high-level assessments, a coherent framework with what is required to model post-growth adequately remains absent. This article addresses this gap by: (1) identifying the minimum requirements for post-growth models, and (2) establishing a set of model elements for representing specific policy themes. Drawing on a survey of modellers and on relevant post-growth literature, we develop a framework of minimum requirements for post-growth modelling that integrates three spheres: biophysical, economic, and social, and links them to post-growth goals. Within the biophysical sphere, we argue that embeddedness requires the inclusion of resource use and pollution, environmental limits, and feedback mechanisms from the environment onto society. Within the economic sphere, models should disaggregate households, incorporate limits to technological change and decoupling, include different types of government interventions, and calculate GDP or output endogenously. Within the social sphere, models should represent time use, material and non-material need satisfiers, and the affordability of essential goods and services. Specific policies and transformation scenarios require additional features, such as sectoral disaggregation or representation of the financial system. Our framework guides the development of models that can simulate both post-growth and pro-growth policies and scenarios, an urgently needed tool for informing policymakers and stakeholders about the full range of options for pursuing sustainability, equity, and wellbeing.

econ.GN↗