arXiv subjects

Jegug Ih

Publications and source records attributed to Jegug Ih.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

JWST MIRI reveals a potential atmosphere on the ultra-hot rocky planet TOI-431b

An open question in exoplanet science is whether rocky exoplanets extremely close in to their host stars, `lava worlds', can retain significant atmospheres. Thermal emission observations via secondary eclipse can be used to determine whether a rocky exoplanet possesses an atmosphere. It is expected that an atmosphere could increase the planet's albedo and/or redistribute heat away from the dayside, reducing the secondary eclipse depth measured. Recent eclipse observations of lava planets, rocky planets hot enough to have liquid magma surfaces, have suggested the presence of atmospheres. Here, we present a single JWST MIRI/LRS partial secondary eclipse of the lava planet TOI-431b. We measure an eclipse depth of 81 $\pm$ 16 ppm, which corresponds to a brightness temperature of $1967^{+237}_{-253}$ K and a brightness temperature ratio R = $0.81\pm0.10$, being 1.2 $\sigma$ higher than the value reported by Spitzer. The observed brightness temperature ratio is 1.8$\sigma$ below that of a zero-albedo, zero heat redistribution bare rock (R=1). Given that magma pools are expected to have low albedos, we find that our results are best explained by the presence of an atmosphere. Future work to measure the exact composition of TOI-431b's atmosphere and improve models of lava planet atmospheres would better constrain the nature and evolution of lava planets.

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arXiv2026

No Helium Detected in LHS 1140 b from Four JWST NIRISS/SOSS Transits

In the effort to determine which low-mass exoplanets have atmospheres, LHS 1140 b remains one of the most favorable targets. Its large size (5.6 $\rm M_{\oplus}$ and 1.7 $\rm R_{\oplus}$) and relatively long orbital period (24.7 days) imply an atmosphere may be likely, and notably, recent interior models favor either a hydrogen-dominated "mini-Neptune" or a "water world" over a true terrestrial planet. Another possibility is that it has a helium-rich atmosphere. This hypothesis is supported by recent ground-based observations that detected the metastable helium triplet during transit. These observations indicated there may be current helium escape from the planet's upper atmosphere, yet the signal was not detected during a subsequent observation, suggesting time-variable escape. Here we present four observations of LHS 1140 b with JWST NIRISS/SOSS, which covers the metastable helium triplet, obtained between 2023 and 2026. These observations span the epoch of the ground-based measurements, and although none were contemporaneous with the ground-based transits, all four are sensitive to helium absorption at the previously reported level. However, we detect no helium absorption in any visit. We reject the best-fit ground-based model at $>3\sigma$ in each visit, and find no clear trend in mass-loss with time. Our results suggest the reported ground-based detection may be spurious, although variability cannot be excluded if detectable helium absorption occurs in $\lesssim50\%$ of transits. The nature of LHS 1140 b thus remains a mystery until future transmission and emission analyses are complete.

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arXiv2026

Precise Determination of the Metallicity and C/O of WASP-39~b From a Single JWST Instrument Mode with Phase-Resolved Cross-Correlation Retrievals

Measuring atmospheric metallicities and C/O ratios is a key goal of JWST exoplanet science, given their proposed link to planet formation. Achieving this goal has previously been shown to require broad wavelength coverage ($\sim$1--5 $\mu$m), typically demanding multiple instrument modes to complete the molecular inventory. Here, we show that the multi-instrument requirement can be circumvented using phase-resolved cross-correlation retrievals at native pixel resolution -- an approach more typically applied to ground-based high-resolution spectroscopy. By applying this novel analysis technique to an archival single-mode transit of the hot Jupiter WASP-39~b obtained with NIRSpec/G395H, we detect and obtain bounded abundances for all of its major carbon- and oxygen-bearing molecules: H$_2$O ($\Delta \ln(Z) = 67$), CO ($\Delta \ln(Z) = 25$), CO$_2$ ($\Delta \ln(Z) = 475$), and SO$_2$ ($\Delta \ln(Z) = 10$). Notably, while standard retrieval methods fail to detect CO in these same data ($\Delta \ln(Z) = 0.2$), our approach detects it decisively, confirming it as the dominant carbon carrier in WASP-39 b's atmosphere. From these abundances, we robustly derive a metallicity of $\rm [(C + O) / H] = 1.2 \pm 0.2$ and a C/O ratio of $0.68^{+0.10}_{-0.14} $, generally consistent with previous multi-instrument analyses. In comparison, traditional retrievals performed on the G395H data alone produce biased and inaccurate values of both parameters, driven primarily by the non-detection of CO as well as incomplete water band coverage. Our results establish phase-resolved cross-correlation retrievals as a powerful tool for extracting maximum atmospheric information from existing and future JWST data sets.

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arXiv2026

A Climate-Constrained Bayesian Inverse Method for JWST Rocky Exoplanet Eclipse Spectra: A Case Study of LTT 1445A b

Determining whether temperate rocky exoplanets orbiting M stars retain atmospheres is currently a central goal of exoplanet astronomy. To this end, the James Webb Space Telescope has begun searching for atmospheres on these worlds with MIRI secondary eclipse spectroscopy and photometry. Here, we develop a novel climate-constrained Bayesian inference framework that yields atmospheric pressure and composition constraints from these datasets, while accounting for planetary, stellar, and model uncertainties. Our approach fits observations with model spectra derived from self-consistent pressure-temperature profiles at radiative-convective equilibrium, thus maximizing the information extracted from the data and providing more robust inferences than retrievals that use parameterized pressure-temperature profiles. We demonstrate the framework on the existing MIRI LRS eclipse spectrum of LTT 1445A b (1.34 $R_\oplus$ and $T_{\mathrm{eq}} \approx 431$ K). An atmosphere does not need to be invoked to explain the data, meaning a bare rock model produces an adequate fit. If the planet has an atmosphere, the $2σ$ upper limits on surface partial pressures are $\lesssim 1$ bar for an optically thin gas like O$_2$, N$_2$ or CO, $\lesssim0.1$ bar for CO$_2$, $\lesssim 10^{-3}$ bar for H$_2$O, and $\lesssim 10^{-4}$ bar for SO$_2$. Scheduled MIRI F1500W observations could detect one of the thicker atmospheres permitted by the existing data (1 bar O$_2$ and 0.01 bar CO$_2$), if a precision of 20 ppm or better is achieved. This case study demonstrates that climate-constrained Bayesian inversion can turn rocky-planet eclipse spectra into the quantitative constraints necessary to test population-level atmospheric retention hypothesis, like the cosmic shoreline.

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arXiv2026

Evidence for an Atmosphere on the Ultra-Short Period super-Earth HD 3167 b

'Lava worlds'-Earth-sized planets hot enough (Teq >~ 1100 K) to melt their dayside silicate surfaces-have emerged as promising candidates for atmospheric detection and characterization. Thermal emission observations show an apparent dichotomy: the hottest lava worlds have colder daysides than the temperature of a maximally emitting bare rock, indicating the likely presence of thick and/or reflective atmospheres while the coldest ones do not. However, where in instellation flux this potential bifurcation occurs is uncertain. We present a JWST MIRI LRS eclipse of the ultra-short period (USP) lava world HD 3167 b (Teq = 1786 K, R = 1.6 Rearth, P = 0.96 d) that helps bridge this gap. We measure the white light eclipse depth to be 38 +/- 11 ppm, more than 5 sigma lower than the expected eclipse depth of a dark, maximally hot bare rock. We use this to derive a dayside brightness temperature that is best explained by the presence of an atmosphere that cools the dayside by reflecting incoming starlight and/or efficiently redistributing heat to the planet's nightside. An atmosphere is further compatible with the planet's slight under-density compared to an Earth-like composition. The corresponding dayside emission spectrum is not precise enough to constrain atmospheric composition, motivating follow-up spectroscopic observations with JWST NIRSpec. Lastly, we use our observation and existing data to refine key planetary parameters of the HD 3167 system. HD 3167 b is currently the least irradiated USP super-Earth with evidence for an atmosphere.

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arXiv2026

Hot Rocks Survey V: Secondary Eclipse Photometry of GJ 3473 b with JWST/MIRI

JWST is transforming our ability to characterise small exoplanets, from sub-Neptunes to rocky worlds. A key open question is whether highly irradiated rocky planets can retain atmospheres or are stripped bare by stellar irradiation -- a boundary that remains to be mapped observationally. Here we present the first JWST secondary eclipse observations of the rocky exoplanet GJ 3473 b, obtained with MIRI F1500W photometry. Using four visits, we confidently detect the eclipse at an average depth of 186$\pm$45 ppm, somewhat lower than expected for a blackbody. We test a wide range of data reduction and analysis assumptions and provide new insights into MIRI detector settling behaviour that will benefit future observations. We model a suite of airless surfaces with varied compositions, textures, and degrees of space weathering, as well as idealised atmospheric scenarios including the possibility of atmospheric collapse. Both atmospheric and bare-rock interpretations remain consistent with the data, but we exclude thick CO$_2$ atmospheres, placing a 95 % credible upper limit of 1.2-6.5 bar on the surface pressure. We also find tentative evidence for visit-to-visit variability in eclipse depth (33-371 ppm), though additional data are required to confirm this. Our results highlight the challenges and intrinsic degeneracies in interpreting MIRI F1500W eclipse measurements of rocky exoplanets, indicating that such observations alone may not uniquely distinguish between bare-rock and atmospheric scenarios. Future spectroscopic or phase-curve observations will be required to determine whether or not GJ 3473 b hosts a substantial atmosphere

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arXiv2026

Magma ocean interactions can explain JWST observations of the sub-Neptune TOI-270 d

Sub-Neptunes with substantial atmospheres may possess magma oceans in contact with the overlying gas, with chemical interactions between the atmosphere and magma playing an important role in shaping atmospheric composition. Early JWST observations have found high abundances of carbon- and oxygen-bearing molecules in a number of sub-Neptune atmospheres, which may result from processes including accretion of icy material at formation or magma-atmosphere interactions. Previous work examining the effects of magma-atmosphere interactions on sub-Neptunes has mostly been limited to studying conditions at the atmosphere-mantle boundary, without considering implications for the upper atmosphere which is probed by spectroscopic observations. In this work, we present a modeling architecture to determine observable signatures of magma-atmosphere interactions. We combine an equilibrium chemistry code which models reactions between the core, mantle and atmosphere with a radiative-convective model that determines the composition and structure of the observable upper atmosphere. We examine how different conditions at the atmosphere-mantle boundary and different core and mantle compositions impact the upper atmospheric composition. We compare our models to JWST NIRISS+NIRSpec observations of the sub-Neptune TOI-270~d, finding that our models can provide a good fit to the observed transmission spectrum with little fine-tuning. This suggests that magma-atmosphere interactions may be sufficient to explain high abundances of molecules such as H$_2$O, CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ in sub-Neptune atmospheres, without additional accretion of icy material from the protoplanetary disk. Although other processes could lead to similar compositions, our work highlights the need to consider magma-atmosphere interactions when interpreting the observed atmospheric composition of a sub-Neptune.

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arXiv2025

Hot Rocks Survey IV: Emission from LTT 3780 b is consistent with a bare rock

It is an open question whether small planets around M dwarfs are able to maintain atmospheres. The Hot Rocks Survey aims to address this question by observing 9 rocky exoplanets orbiting M dwarfs with MIRI emission photometry to constrain the onset of atmospheres. In this paper, we present two MIRI F1500W (15$μ$m) eclipses of LTT 3780 b, an ultra-short period super-Earth ($P=0.768$ d, $R=1.325 \,R_\oplus$, $M = 2.46\,M_\oplus$) that receives 111x Earth's instellation, the highest in the survey. We find a combined eclipse depth of $312\pm38$ ppm, which is consistent between different data reduction and analysis assumptions, bolstering our confidence in the eclipse detection. This eclipse depth is consistent with the thermal emission from a bare rock surface, with a dayside temperature of $T_d=1143^{+104}_{-99}$ K, $98\pm9$ % of the maximum temperature predicted for a zero albedo, zero heat redistribution blackbody. We are able to confidently rule out CO$_2$-based atmospheres down to 0.01 bar surface pressure to greater than 3$σ$ (ruling out an approximately Mars-like atmosphere). We are unable to rule out a pure H$_2$O 1 bar atmosphere, though we argue that this composition is unlikely on such a highly irradiated planet, nor O$_2$ atmospheres due to the lack of features in the bandpass, though we can put constraints on CO$_2$-mixture atmospheres. As a potential bare rock, we consider a variety of surface composition models, but are unable to distinguish between them. However, LTT 3780 b is an excellent target for follow-up JWST observations to determine its surface composition and rule out additional atmospheric compositions.

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arXiv2025

Do Rocky Planets around M Stars Have Atmospheres? A Statistical Approach to the Cosmic Shoreline

Answering the question "do rocky exoplanets around M stars have atmospheres?" is a key science goal of the JWST mission, with 500 hours of Director's Discretionary Time (DDT) awarded to address it. Theoretically, the so-called "Cosmic Shoreline" may not hold around M stars due to their harsher XUV environment, possibly resulting in most rocky planets lacking significant atmospheres -- a hypothesis that remains to be statistically tested through judicious target selection. We identify target selection as a combinatorial optimization problem ("knapsack problem"). We develop a statistical framework to test population-level hypotheses from observations and combine a formation and evolution model, 1D-RCE atmosphere model, and genetic algorithm to simulate populations and find the optimal set of observations. We find that, firstly, if all rocky planets around M stars are indeed bare rocks, JWST can efficiently place an upper bound on the atmosphere occurrence rates to less than 1 in 8, even without optimized target selection, but further improvements to the constraint are cost-prohibitive. Secondly, if the Cosmic Shoreline hypothesis (XUV or bolometric) holds true for M stars, strong evidence ($Δ$BIC>5) can be found within ~500 observing hours using the optimal strategy of a "wide and shallow" approach. Our statistical framework can be directly applied to upcoming observations to robustly identify the Cosmic Shoreline and to optimize target selection for determining other trends in exoplanet atmosphere observations, including those from future missions.

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arXiv2025

Hot Rocks Survey III: A deep eclipse for LHS 1140c and a new Gaussian process method to account for correlated noise in individual pixels

Time-series photometry at mid-infrared wavelengths is becoming a common technique to search for atmospheres around rocky exoplanets. This method constrains the brightness temperature of the planet to determine whether heat redistribution is taking place - indicative of an atmosphere - or whether the heat is reradiated from a low albedo bare rock. By observing at 15$μ$m we are also highly sensitive to CO$_2$ absorption. We observed three eclipses of the rocky super-Earth LHS 1140c using MIRI/Imaging with the F1500W filter. We found significant variation in the initial settling ramp for these observations and identify a potential trend between detector settling and the previous filter used by MIRI. We analysed our data using aperture photometry but also developed a novel approach which joint-fits pixel light curves directly using a shared eclipse model and a flexible multi-dimensional Gaussian process which models changes in the PSF over time. We demonstrate using simulated data that our method has the ability to weight away from particular pixels which show increased systematics, allowing for the recovery of eclipse depths in a more robust and precise way. Both methods and an independent analysis detect the eclipse at $>5σ$ and are highly consistent with a low albedo bare rock. We recover a dayside brightness temperature of $T_\mathrm{day} = 561\pm44$ K, close to the theoretical maximum of $T_\text{day; max} = 537\pm9$ K. We rule out a wide range of atmospheric forward models to $>3σ$ including pure CO$_2$ atmospheres with surface pressure $\ge10$ mbar and pure H$_2$O atmospheres with surface pressure $\ge1$ bar. Our strict constraints on potential atmospheric composition, in combination with future observations of the exciting outer planet LHS 1140b, could provide a powerful benchmark to understand atmospheric escape around M dwarfs.

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arXiv2025

Population-level Hypothesis Testing with Rocky Planet Emission Data: A Tentative Trend in the Brightness Temperatures of M-Earths

Determining which rocky exoplanets have atmospheres, and why, is a key goal for the James Webb Space Telescope. So far, emission observations of individual rocky exoplanets orbiting M stars (M-Earths) have not provided definitive evidence for atmospheres. Here, we synthesize emission data for M-Earths and find a trend in measured brightness temperatures (ratioed to its theoretical maximum value) as a function of instellation. However, the statistical evidence of this trend is dependent on the choice of stellar model, and we consider its identification tentative. We show that this trend can be explained by either the onset of thin/tenuous (<1 bar) CO2-rich atmospheres on colder worlds, or a population of bare rocks with stronger space weathering and/or coarser regolith on closer-in worlds. Such grain coarsening may be caused by sintering near the melting point of rock or frequent volcanic resurfacing. Furthermore, we highlight considerations when testing rocky planet hypotheses at the population level, including the choice of instrument, stellar modeling, and how brightness temperatures are derived. We also find that fresh (unweathered) fine-grained surfaces can serve as a false positive to the detection of moderate atmospheric heat redistribution through eclipse observations. However, we argue that such surfaces are unlikely given the ubiquity of space weathering in the Solar System, the low albedo of Solar System airless bodies, and the high stellar wind environments of M-Earths. Emission data from a larger sample of M-Earths will be able to confirm or reject this tentative trend and diagnose its cause through spectral characterization.

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arXiv2025

TOI-421 b: A Hot Sub-Neptune with a Haze-Free, Low Mean Molecular Weight Atmosphere

Common features of sub-Neptunes atmospheres observed to date include signatures of aerosols at moderate equilibrium temperatures (~500-800 K), and a prevalence of high mean molecular weight atmospheres, perhaps indicating novel classes of planets such as water worlds. Here we present a 0.83-5 micron JWST transmission spectrum of the sub-Neptune TOI-421 b. This planet is unique among previously observed counterparts in its high equilibrium temperature ($T_{eq} \approx 920$) and its Sun-like host star. We find marked differences between the atmosphere of TOI-421 b and those of sub-Neptunes previously characterized with JWST, which all orbit M stars. Specifically, water features in the NIRISS/SOSS bandpass indicate a low mean molecular weight atmosphere consistent with solar metallicity, and no appreciable aerosol coverage. Hints of SO$_2$ and CO (but not CO$_2$ or CH$_4$) also exist in our NIRSpec/G395M observations, but not at sufficient signal-to-noise to draw firm conclusions. Our results support a picture in which sub-Neptunes hotter than ~850 K do not form hydrocarbon hazes due to a lack of methane to photolyze. TOI-421 b additionally fits the paradigm of the radius valley for planets orbiting FGK stars being sculpted by mass loss processes, which would leave behind primordial atmospheres overlying rock/iron interiors. Further observations of TOI-421 b and similar hot sub-Neptunes will confirm whether haze-free atmospheres and low mean molecular weights are universal characteristics of such objects.

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arXiv2024

No Thick Atmosphere on the Terrestrial Exoplanet Gl 486b

A primary science goal for JWST is to detect and characterize the atmospheres of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs (M-Earths). The existence of atmospheres on M-Earths is highly uncertain because their host stars' extended history of high XUV irradiation may act to completely remove their atmospheres. We present two JWST secondary eclipse observations of the M-Earth Gl 486b (also known as GJ 486b) between 5-12 $μ$m. We combined these observations with a precise analysis of the host star parameters to derive a planetary dayside temperature of $T_{p}=865 \pm 14$ K. We compared this temperature to the maximum expected temperature for a zero albedo, zero heat redistribution bare rock and derived a temperature ratio of $R=\frac{T_{p,dayside}}{T_{p,max}}=0.97 \pm 0.01$. This value is consistent with an airless body with a slight non-zero albedo or a thin atmosphere with $<1$% H$_{2}$O or $<1$ ppm CO$_{2}$. However, it is inconsistent with an Earth- or Venus-like atmosphere, and the spectrum shows no clear emission or absorption features. Additionally, our observations are inconsistent with the water-rich atmospheric scenario allowed by previous transit observations and suggest the transmission spectrum was instead shaped by stellar contamination (Moran et al. 2023). Given the potential for atmospheric escape throughout the system's $\geq6.6$-Gyr lifetime (Diamond-Lowe et al. 2024), we conclude that the observations are likely best explained by an airless planet. This result is the most precise measurement yet of terrestrial exoplanet thermal emission with JWST, which places a strong constraint on the position of the "Cosmic Shoreline" between airless bodies and those with atmospheres.

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arXiv2024

JWST Thermal Emission of the Terrestrial Exoplanet GJ 1132b

We present thermal emission measurements of GJ 1132b spanning 5--12 um obtained with the Mid-Infrared Instrument Low-Resolution Spectrometer (MIRI/LRS) on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). GJ 1132b is an M-dwarf rocky planet with Teq=584 K and an orbital period of 1.6 days. We measure a white-light secondary eclipse depth of 140+/-17 ppm, which corresponds to a dayside brightness temperature of Tp,dayside= 709+/-31 K using improved star and planet parameters. This measured temperature is only 1 sigma below the maximum possible dayside temperature of a bare rock (i.e., assuming a zero albedo planet with no heat redistribution, Tmax = 746+14/-11 K). The emission spectrum is consistent with a featureless blackbody, which agrees with a wide range of possible surface compositions. By comparing forward models to the dayside emission spectrum, we rule out Earth-thickness (P ~ 1 bar) atmospheres with at least 1% H2O, atmospheres of any modeled thickness (10^-4 -- 10^2 bar) that contain at least 1% CO2, and thick, Venus-like atmospheres (P>~100 bar) with at least 1 ppm CO2 or H2O. We therefore conclude that GJ 1132b likely does not have a significant atmosphere. This finding supports the concept of a universal 'Cosmic Shoreline' given the high level of bolometric and XUV irradiation received by the planet.

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arXiv2024

Hydrogen sulfide and metal-enriched atmosphere for a Jupiter-mass exoplanet

As the closest transiting hot Jupiter to Earth, HD 189733b has been the benchmark planet for atmospheric characterization. It has also been the anchor point for much of our theoretical understanding of exoplanet atmospheres from composition, chemistry, aerosols to atmospheric dynamics, escape, and modeling techniques. Prior studies of HD 189733b have detected carbon and oxygen-bearing molecules H2O and CO in the atmosphere. The presence of CO2 and CH4 has been claimed but later disputed. The inferred metallicity based on these measurements, a key parameter in tracing planet formation locations, varies from depletion to enhancement, hindered by limited wavelength coverage and precision of the observations. Here we report detections of H2O (13.4 sigma), CO2 (11.2 sigma), CO (5 sigma), and H2S (4.5 sigma) in the transmission spectrum (2.4-5 micron) of HD 189733b. With an equilibrium temperature of ~1200K, H2O, CO, and H2S are the main reservoirs for oxygen, carbon, and sulfur. Based on the measured abundances of these three major volatile elements, we infer an atmospheric metallicity of 3-5 times stellar. The upper limit on the methane abundance at 5 sigma is 0.1 ppm which indicates a low carbon-to-oxygen ratio (<0.2), suggesting formation through the accretion of water-rich icy planetesimals. The low oxygen-to-sulfur and carbon-to-sulfur ratios also support the planetesimal accretion formation pathway.

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arXiv2023

Identification of the Top TESS Objects of Interest for Atmospheric Characterization of Transiting Exoplanets with JWST

JWST has ushered in an era of unprecedented ability to characterize exoplanetary atmospheres. While there are over 5,000 confirmed planets, more than 4,000 TESS planet candidates are still unconfirmed and many of the best planets for atmospheric characterization may remain to be identified. We present a sample of TESS planets and planet candidates that we identify as "best-in-class" for transmission and emission spectroscopy with JWST. These targets are sorted into bins across equilibrium temperature $T_{\mathrm{eq}}$ and planetary radius $R{_\mathrm{p}}$ and are ranked by transmission and emission spectroscopy metric (TSM and ESM, respectively) within each bin. In forming our target sample, we perform cuts for expected signal size and stellar brightness, to remove sub-optimal targets for JWST. Of the 194 targets in the resulting sample, 103 are unconfirmed TESS planet candidates, also known as TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs). We perform vetting and statistical validation analyses on these 103 targets to determine which are likely planets and which are likely false positives, incorporating ground-based follow-up from the TESS Follow-up Observation Program (TFOP) to aid the vetting and validation process. We statistically validate 23 TOIs, marginally validate 33 TOIs to varying levels of confidence, deem 29 TOIs likely false positives, and leave the dispositions for 4 TOIs as inconclusive. 14 of the 103 TOIs were confirmed independently over the course of our analysis. We provide our final best-in-class sample as a community resource for future JWST proposals and observations. We intend for this work to motivate formal confirmation and mass measurements of each validated planet and encourage more detailed analysis of individual targets by the community.

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arXiv2023

Where are the Water Worlds?: Self-Consistent Models of Water-Rich Exoplanet Atmospheres

It remains to be ascertained whether sub-Neptune exoplanets primarily possess hydrogen-rich atmospheres or whether a population of H$_2$O-rich "water worlds" lurks in their midst. Addressing this question requires improved modeling of water-rich exoplanetary atmospheres, both to predict and interpret spectroscopic observations and to serve as upper boundary conditions on interior structure calculations. Here we present new models of hydrogen-helium-water atmospheres with water abundances ranging from solar to 100% water vapor. We improve upon previous models of high water content atmospheres by incorporating updated prescriptions for water self-broadening and a non-ideal gas equation of state. Our model grid (https://umd.box.com/v/water-worlds) includes temperature-pressure profiles in radiative-convective equilibrium, along with their associated transmission and thermal emission spectra. We find that our model updates primarily act at high pressures, significantly impacting bottom-of-atmosphere temperatures, with implications for the accuracy of interior structure calculations. Upper atmosphere conditions and spectroscopic observables are less impacted by our model updates, and we find that under most conditions, retrieval codes built for hot Jupiters should also perform well on water-rich planets. We additionally quantify the observational degeneracies among both thermal emission and transmission spectra. We recover standard degeneracies with clouds and mean molecular weight for transmission spectra, and we find thermal emission spectra to be more readily distinguishable from one another in the water-poor (i.e. near-solar) regime.

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arXiv2023

Constraining the Thickness of the Atmosphere of TRAPPIST-1 b from its JWST Secondary Eclipse Observation

Recently, the first JWST measurement of thermal emission from a rocky exoplanet was reported. The inferred dayside brightness temperature of TRAPPIST-1 b at 15 $μ$m is consistent with the planet having no atmosphere and therefore no mechanism by which to circulate heat to its nightside. In this Letter, we compare the measured secondary eclipse depth of TRAPPIST-1 b to predictions from a suite of self-consistent radiative-convective equilibrium models in order to quantify the maximum atmospheric thickness consistent with the observation. We find that plausible atmospheres (i.e., those that contain at least 100 ppm CO$_2$) with surface pressures greater than 0.01 bar (0.1 bar) are ruled out at 1$σ$ (3$σ$), regardless of the choice of background atmosphere. Thicker atmospheres of up to 10 bar (100 bar) at 1$σ$ (3$σ$) are only allowed if the atmosphere lacks any strong absorbers across the mid-IR wavelength range, a scenario that we deem unlikely. We additionally model the emission spectra for bare-rock planets of various compositions. We find that a variety of silicate surfaces match the measured eclipse depth to within 1$σ$, and the best-fit grey albedo is $0.02 \pm 0.11$. We conclude that planned secondary eclipse observations at 12.8 $μ$m will serve to validate the high observed brightness temperature of TRAPPIST-1 b, but are unlikely to further distinguish among the consistent atmospheric and bare-rock scenarios.

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