arXiv subjects

Jelena Markovic-Voronov

Publications and source records attributed to Jelena Markovic-Voronov.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Target-ESS Tempered Policy Optimization (TETPO): Smooth Variance Control via Bridge Importance Sampling

Asynchronous reinforcement-learning post-training of large language models is computationally efficient but inherently off-policy: the learner updates on rollouts generated by a stale policy, while correcting this mismatch requires importance weights that can be extremely heavy-tailed. A small number of trajectories may then dominate an update, collapsing the effective sample size (ESS) and increasing the variance and instability of the resulting gradient estimates. Existing stabilizers apply fixed interventions regardless of the realized severity of weight concentration, either discarding selected samples or reweighting them without adapting the correction strength. We introduce \emph{Target--ESS Tempered Policy Optimization} (TETPO), which replaces each importance weight $ρ$ by $ρ^α$ for a data-adaptive exponent $α\in[0,1]$: $α=1$ preserves the original importance weights, whereas $α=0$ assigns uniform coefficients. For each prompt group, TETPO selects the largest $α$ whose tempered weights satisfy a target ESS fraction $κ$, applying little tempering to healthy groups and stronger tempering when weight degeneracy is severe. At the population level, the tempered coefficients are exact importance weights for a geometric bridge between the sampler and learner policies. The exponent is efficiently found by one-dimensional bisection, while the resulting weights satisfy deterministic bounds on normalized-weight dispersion and weighted-gradient norm that are independent of policy drift, together with a fixed-$α$ bound on bridge-target discrepancy. Power tempering also introduces no explicit zero-weight mask. On mathematical-reasoning benchmarks under high staleness, TETPO outperforms strong on- and off-policy baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Smaller Models, Better Rejects: Preference Distillation Scaling

Preference distillation typically treats a teacher response as preferred and the student's own response as rejected. This assumes that self-generated failures are the most informative negatives and that rejects must come from a model at least as large as the student, making generation costly at scale. We find neither assumption holds: across students from 7B to 72B, smaller frozen models generate rejects with less inference compute yet train stronger students than self-generated rejects, before and after sequence-level knowledge distillation, on code generation and mathematical reasoning. To explain this result, we derive a finite-horizon utility bound for Direct Preference Optimization in a linearized feature model. The bound characterizes favorable reject distributions and motivates three interventions. First, mixing rejects from smaller and student-scale models improves performance as the smaller model's share increases. Second, reassigning rejects to other prompts and shuffling their code tokens still outperform length-matched gibberish, showing that task structure contributes to reject utility. Third, selecting candidates with lower likelihood under the reference policy improves net transfer when higher-likelihood candidates provide less useful contrast. Lower-likelihood selections outperform higher-likelihood ones for every source. These results suggest that effective rejects preserve task structure while limiting coupling to the reference policy, and that smaller frozen models can provide them at low cost.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TREK: Distill to Explore, Reinforce to Refine

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is effective when the current policy already samples useful reasoning trajectories, but it stalls on hard prompts whose correct solution modes lie outside the student's on-policy support. We propose TREK (Teacher-Routed Exploration via Forward KL), a simple staged procedure that uses distillation not for imitation but for exploration support expansion. A key advantage of TREK is its generality: because it only consumes verified output trajectories, it can use an external black-box teacher, a white-box teacher, or the same model given additional inference-time context, and it can efficiently identify which hard-prompt samples are most worth consolidating even when teacher internals are unavailable. TREK first identifies prompts where the unaided student has very low pass rate, queries a proposal source to produce verified candidate solutions, keeps the top-$r$ proposals ranked by current student likelihood, applies a short forward-KL phase to pull those verified modes into the student's support, and then returns to standard on-policy GRPO refinement. On mathematical reasoning, TREK with DeepSeek-V4 proposals improves Qwen3 models across all tested scales on AIME 2024 and AIME 2025; for Qwen3-8B, it improves AIME 2025 from 36.9 to 40.3 and AIME 2024 from 47.9 to 51.1 (avg@16), while the self-context variant reaches 38.5 and 49.6 without an external teacher. On agentic tasks, TREK raises ALFWorld success rate from 75.8 to 82.8 and ScienceWorld success rate from 12.5 to 26.7; notably, on the hardest task types, TREK achieves high success rates early in training while unaided GRPO requires substantially more optimization steps to reach comparable levels.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Precision Tracked Transformer via Kalman Filtering, Kriging and Process Noise

The Transformer is the foundational building block of modern AI, yet offers no principled handling of \emph{uncertainty}, which is prevalent in real applications: cold-start tokens with sparse histories in sequential recommendation, heterogeneous signal quality in language models, and attention sinks induced by unconstrained softmax. Every token is treated with uniform confidence. We show this uniformity is a degenerate case of our \emph{Bayesian Filtering Transformer} (BFT): attention becomes precision-weighted kriging, the residual connection becomes a Kalman update with adaptive gain, and the FFN becomes a dynamics model propagating precision via a Jacobian--plus--process-noise rule. Observation precision comes from a parameter-free Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) estimator with a conjugate Bayesian prior. BFT replaces any Transformer layer with negligible overhead. On sequential recommendation, BFT applied to three major architectures yields significant gains on six benchmarks, with the largest improvements on cold-start users and rare items where uncertainty is highest. On supervised fine-tuning of large language models with noisy data, BFT improves robustness in two regimes: noisy supervision (token-label corruption in question answering) and noisy context (retrieval-augmented QA with real RAG distractors). A single principled modification -- restoring precision -- unlocks substantial headroom across both classical sequence-modeling and modern LLM regimes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Sampling for Quality: Training-Free Reward-Guided LLM Decoding via Sequential Monte Carlo

We introduce a principled probabilistic framework for reward-guided decoding in large language models, addressing the limitations of standard decoding methods that optimize token-level likelihood rather than sequence-level quality. Our method defines a reward-augmented target distribution over complete sequences by combining model transition probabilities with prefix-dependent reward potentials. Importantly, the approach is training-free: it leaves model weights unchanged and instead modifies the inference distribution via reward potentials, with all gains arising purely from inference-time sampling. To sample from this distribution, we develop Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, including a computationally efficient prefix-only variant and a lookahead variant whose intermediate targets match the exact marginals of the full sequence distribution. The framework also integrates resample-move updates with Metropolis-Hastings rejuvenation and supports block-wise generation, subsuming common decoding strategies such as temperature sampling and power-tempered objectives. Empirical results across three 7B models show significant gains. On code generation (HumanEval), our method improves base performance by up to 54.9% and surpasses the strongest sampling baselines by 9.1%-15.3%. On mathematical reasoning (MATH500), it achieves gains of up to 8.8%. Notably, it reaches 87.8% on HumanEval and 78.4% on MATH500 with Qwen2.5-7B, consistently outperforming the reinforcement learning method GRPO.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Robust Batch-Level Query Routing for Large Language Models under Cost and Capacity Constraints

We study the problem of routing queries to large language models (LLMs) under cost, GPU resources, and concurrency constraints. Prior per-query routing methods often fail to control batch-level cost, especially under non-uniform or adversarial batching. To address this, we propose a batch-level, resource-aware routing framework that jointly optimizes model assignment for each batch while respecting cost and model capacity limits. We further introduce a robust variant that accounts for uncertainty in predicted LLM performance, along with an offline instance allocation procedure that balances quality and throughput across multiple models. Experiments on two multi-task LLM benchmarks show that robustness improves accuracy by 1-14% over non-robust counterparts (depending on the performance estimator), batch-level routing outperforms per-query methods by up to 24% under adversarial batching, and optimized instance allocation yields additional gains of up to 3% compared to a non-optimized allocation, all while strictly controlling cost and GPU resource constraints.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Black-box Selective Inference via Bootstrapping

Conditional selective inference requires an exact characterization of the selection event, which is often unavailable except for a few examples like the lasso. This work addresses this challenge by introducing a generic approach to estimate the selection event, facilitating feasible inference conditioned on the selection event. The method proceeds by repeatedly generating bootstrap data and running the selection algorithm on the new datasets. Using the outputs of the selection algorithm, we can estimate the selection probability as a function of certain summary statistics. This leads to an estimate of the distribution of the data conditioned on the selection event, which forms the basis for conditional selective inference. We provide a theoretical guarantee assuming both asymptotic normality of relevant statistics and accurate estimation of the selection probability. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated through a variety of problems that lack exact characterizations of selection, where conditional selective inference was previously infeasible.

stat.ME↗