arXiv subjects

Jennifer C. Nelson

Publications and source records attributed to Jennifer C. Nelson.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Using binary silver labels in electronic health records-based computable phenotyping algorithms

Gold-standard phenotype labels are often unavailable at scale in electronic health record (EHR) studies because they require manual chart review. Weakly supervised phenotyping methods instead use silver-standard labels, such as diagnosis-code counts, natural language processing (NLP) mentions, medication indicators, or laboratory thresholds. PheNorm is widely used for this purpose, but its original formulation was designed for count-valued silver labels and relies on log transformation, utilization normalization, and Gaussian mixture modeling. These steps are not directly suited to binary silver labels, which are common and may be highly informative. We propose Binary PheNorm, an extension that uses binary silver labels directly in the corruption-and-regression denoising step and produces a continuous phenotype score without EM calibration. We also consider a lasso-regularized version for high-dimensional EHR settings and combined models using both binary and count labels. In simulations, Binary PheNorm achieved strong discrimination using binary labels alone and often improved performance when combined with count labels. In anaphylaxis, AUC increased from 0.793 for an epinephrine-mention indicator to 0.891-0.892 after Binary PheNorm. In acute pancreatitis, AUC increased from 0.736 for a lipase-threshold indicator to 0.805-0.819. These results support Binary PheNorm as a practical weakly supervised approach when informative binary silver labels are available.

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arXiv2026

Performance of weakly-supervised electronic health record-based phenotyping methods in rare-outcome settings

Accurately identifying patients with specific medical conditions is a key challenge when using clinical data from electronic health records. Our objective was to comprehensively assess when weakly-supervised prediction methods, which use silver-standard labels (proxy measures of the true outcome) rather than gold-standard true labels, perform well in rare-outcome settings like vaccine safety studies. We compared three methods (PheNorm, MAP, and sureLDA) that combine structured features and features derived from clinical text using natural language processing, through an extensive simulation study with data-generating mechanisms ranging from simple to complex, varying outcome rates, and varying degrees of informative silver labels. We also considered using predicted probabilities to design a chart review validation study. No single method dominated the other across all prediction performance metrics. Probability-guided sampling selected a cohort enriched for patients with more mentions of important concepts in chart notes. SureLDA, the most complex of the three algorithms we considered, often performed well in simulations. Performance depended greatly on selected tuning parameters. Care should be taken when using weakly-supervised prediction methods in rare-outcome settings, particularly if the probabilities will be used in downstream analysis, but these methods can work well when silver labels are strong predictors of true outcomes.

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arXiv2025

A cautionary note for plasmode simulation studies in the setting of causal inference

Plasmode simulation has become an important tool for evaluating the operating characteristics of different statistical methods in complex settings, such as pharmacoepidemiological studies of treatment effectiveness using electronic health records (EHR) data. These studies provide insight into how estimator performance is impacted by challenges including rare events, small sample size, etc., that can indicate which among a set of methods performs best in a real-world dataset. Plasmode simulation combines data resampled from a real-world dataset with synthetic data to generate a known truth for an estimand in realistic data. There are different potential plasmode strategies currently in use. We compare two popular plasmode simulation frameworks. We provide numerical evidence and a theoretical result, which shows that one of these frameworks can cause certain estimators to incorrectly appear overly biased with lower than nominal confidence interval coverage. Detailed simulation studies using both synthetic and real-world EHR data demonstrate that these pitfalls remain at large sample sizes and when analyzing data from a randomized controlled trial. We conclude with guidance for the choice of a plasmode simulation approach that maintains good theoretical properties to allow a fair evaluation of statistical methods while also maintaining the desired similarity to real data.

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arXiv2024

Assessing treatment effects in observational data with missing confounders: A comparative study of practical doubly-robust and traditional missing data methods

In pharmacoepidemiology, safety and effectiveness are frequently evaluated using readily available administrative and electronic health records data. In these settings, detailed confounder data are often not available in all data sources and therefore missing on a subset of individuals. Multiple imputation (MI) and inverse-probability weighting (IPW) are go-to analytical methods to handle missing data and are dominant in the biomedical literature. Doubly-robust methods, which are consistent under fewer assumptions, can be more efficient with respect to mean-squared error. We discuss two practical-to-implement doubly-robust estimators, generalized raking and inverse probability-weighted targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), which are both currently under-utilized in biomedical studies. We compare their performance to IPW and MI in a detailed numerical study for a variety of synthetic data-generating and missingness scenarios, including scenarios with rare outcomes and a high missingness proportion. Further, we consider plasmode simulation studies that emulate the complex data structure of a large electronic health records cohort in order to compare anti-depressant therapies in a rare-outcome setting where a key confounder is prone to more than 50\% missingness. We provide guidance on selecting a missing data analysis approach, based on which methods excelled with respect to the bias-variance trade-off across the different scenarios studied.

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arXiv2023

Analysis of the 24-Hour Activity Cycle: An illustration examining the association with cognitive function in the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) Study

The 24-hour activity cycle (24HAC) is a new paradigm for studying activity behaviors in relation to health outcomes. This approach captures the interrelatedness of the daily time spent in physical activity (PA), sedentary behavior (SB), and sleep. We illustrate and compare the use of three popular approaches, namely isotemporal substitution model (ISM), compositional data analysis (CoDA), and latent profile analysis (LPA) for modeling outcome associations with the 24HAC. We apply these approaches to assess an association with a cognitive outcome, measured by CASI item response theory (IRT) score, in a cohort of 1034 older adults (mean [range] age = 77 [65-100]; 55.8% female; 90% White) who were part of the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) Activity Monitoring (ACT-AM) sub-study. PA and SB were assessed with thigh-worn activPAL accelerometers for 7 days. We highlight differences in assumptions between the three approaches, discuss statistical challenges, and provide guidance on interpretation and selecting an appropriate approach. ISM is easiest to apply and interpret; however, the typical ISM model assumes a linear association. CoDA specifies a non-linear association through isometric logratio transformations that are more challenging to apply and interpret. LPA can classify individuals into groups with similar time-use patterns. Inference on associations of latent profiles with health outcomes need to account for the uncertainty of the LPA classifications which is often ignored. The selection of the most appropriate method should be guided by the scientific questions of interest and the applicability of each model's assumptions. The analytic results did not suggest that less time spent on SB and more in PA was associated with better cognitive function. Further research is needed into the health implications of the distinct 24HAC patterns identified in this cohort.

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arXiv2019

Multiply Robust Causal Inference with Double Negative Control Adjustment for Categorical Unmeasured Confounding

Unmeasured confounding is a threat to causal inference in observational studies. In recent years, use of negative controls to mitigate unmeasured confounding has gained increasing recognition and popularity. Negative controls have a longstanding tradition in laboratory sciences and epidemiology to rule out non-causal explanations, although they have been used primarily for bias detection. Recently, Miao et al. (2018) have described sufficient conditions under which a pair of negative control exposure and outcome variables can be used to nonparametrically identify the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data subject to uncontrolled confounding. In this paper, we establish nonparametric identification of the ATE under weaker conditions in the case of categorical unmeasured confounding and negative control variables. We also provide a general semiparametric framework for obtaining inferences about the ATE while leveraging information about a possibly large number of measured covariates. In particular, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound in the nonparametric model, and we propose multiply robust and locally efficient estimators when nonparametric estimation may not be feasible. We assess the finite sample performance of our methods in extensive simulation studies. Finally, we illustrate our methods with an application to the postlicensure surveillance of vaccine safety among children.

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