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Jennifer Paige

Publications and source records attributed to Jennifer Paige.

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Towards a unified framework for multiple stable states in ecological systems

Multiple stable states - the coexistence of two or more distinct ecological configurations under identical environmental conditions - have attracted sustained interest in ecology, yet the field still lacks a unified framework connecting ecological mechanisms to dynamical models. Here, we review empirical and theoretical approaches to multiple stable states, synthesising perspectives on stability, tipping, hysteresis, and transient dynamics, and contextualise these within a common mathematical framework. Drawing on examples of well-known ecosystem models, we highlight the central and necessary role of positive feedback loops and identify other common, unifying features of ecological systems that exhibit multiple stable states. We further discuss the relationship between stable and transient dynamics, the roles of spatial and temporal scales in feedback identification, and the implications for ecological restoration and management. We conclude with open questions and challenges for the field, including extending multistability theory to persistent-transient frameworks and harnessing emerging data-collection technologies to sharpen empirical inference.

q-bio.PE

8 quick tips for data-model integration in ecology

Theoretical ecologists have long leveraged empirical data in various forms to advance ecology. Recently increased volumes and access to ecological data present an expanding set of opportunities for theoreticians to inform model development, framing, and interpretation. Whereas statisticians have collective guidance on best practices for data use, theoreticians might lack formal education on how to integrate diverse types of data into a single ecological model. As a group of predominantly early-career theoretical ecologists, we have developed guiding principles and practical tips to support theoretical ecologists in synthesizing multiple types of data at different phases of the modeling process. Our rules fall into three overarching themes: iteration in the data-model integration process, leveraging multiple sources of data), and understanding uncertainty. Across these rules, we emphasize that the data-model integration requires transparent, justifiable, and defensible communication of modeling choices to support readers in appropriately contextualizing the model and its implications.

q-bio.PE

Assessing congressional districting in Maine and New Hampshire

We use voting precinct and election data to analyze the political geography of New Hampshire and Maine. We find that the location of dividing line between Congressional districts in both states are significantly different than what we would expect, which we argue is likely due to incumbent gerrymandering. We also discuss the limitations of classical fairness measures for plans with only two districts.

math.CO