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Jeremy VanderDoes

Publications and source records attributed to Jeremy VanderDoes.

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An operator-level ARCH Model

AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models are standard for modeling time series exhibiting volatility, with a rich literature in univariate and multivariate settings. In recent years, these models have been extended to function spaces. However, functional ARCH and generalized ARCH (GARCH) processes established in the literature have thus far been restricted to model ``pointwise'' variances. In this paper, we propose a new ARCH framework for data residing in general separable Hilbert spaces that accounts for the full evolution of the conditional covariance operator. We define a general operator-level ARCH model. For a simplified Constant Conditional Correlation version of the model, we establish conditions under which such models admit strictly and weakly stationary solutions, finite moments, and weak serial dependence. Additionally, we derive consistent Yule--Walker-type estimators of the infinite-dimensional model parameters. The practical relevance of the model is illustrated through simulations and a data application to high-frequency cumulative intraday returns.

stat.ME

Graph-based Change Point Detection for Functional Data

Modeling functions that are sequentially observed as functional time series is becoming increasingly common. In such models, it is often crucial to ensure data homogeneity. We investigate the sensitivity of graph-based change point detection for changes in the distribution of functional data that demarcate homogeneous regions. Related test statistics and thresholds for detection are given. A key factor in the efficacy of such tests is the graph construction. Practical considerations for constructing a graph on arbitrary data are explored. Simulation experiments investigate tuning parameters for graph construction and evaluate the graph-based methods in comparison to existing functional methods. In addition to sensitivity of lower and higher order changes, robustness to the tuning parameter choices, and practical recommendations, are shown. Applications to multi-year pedestrian counts, high-frequency asset returns, and continuous electricity prices corroborate the simulation results.

stat.ME