arXiv subjects

Jesse Dodge

Publications and source records attributed to Jesse Dodge.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

LPDS: Evaluating LLM Robustness Through Logic-Preserving Difficulty Scaling

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed to perform tasks with minimal human oversight, it is crucial that these models operate robustly. In particular, a model that can solve a given problem should not fail simply because certain entities$\unicode{x2013}$such as names, numbers, or other contextual details$\unicode{x2013}$have changed while the underlying problem logic remains the same. Prior work suggests that current LLMs still struggle with this form of robustness: they often succeed on some variations of a problem but fail on others. However, existing evaluations often lack a systematic way to identify which logic-preserving variations are most likely to induce failure. Instead, they typically test a random subset of allowable variations, which can overstate robustness. To address this gap, we introduce logic-preserving difficulty scaling (LPDS), a framework that (i) quantifies the difficulty of a problem variation and (ii) systematically searches the space of allowable variations to find those that maximize difficulty and expose failures. We show that as difficulty increases, performance declines and errors in the models' reasoning chains become more pronounced. We further demonstrate that LPDS efficiently finds difficult problem variations for a model, resulting in performance drops up to 5 times larger compared to random sampling. Finally, we show that fine-tuning on more difficult variations leads to more consistent robustness gains than training on easier ones.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Brittlebench: Quantifying LLM robustness via prompt sensitivity

Existing evaluation methods largely rely on clean, static benchmarks, which can overestimate true model performance by failing to capture the noise and variability inherent in real-world user inputs. This is especially true for language models, which can face human-generated text queries containing mistakes, typos, or alternative ways of phrasing the same question. In this work, we introduce a theoretical framework for quantifying model sensitivity to prompt variants, or brittleness, that can enable us to disentangle data-induced difficulty from prompt-related variability. Using this framework, we design a novel evaluation pipeline, Brittlebench, to holistically evaluate the sensitivity of frontier models. We apply semantics-preserving perturbations to a suite of popular benchmarks, and observe model performance to degrade as much as 12%. However, these perturbations do not affect all models equally: even a single perturbation alters the relative ranking of models in 63% of cases, impacting conclusions about comparative model performance. Decomposing the total variance of both state-of-the-art open-weight and commercial models, we find that semantics-preserving input perturbations can account for up to half of the performance variance for a given model. Brittlebench highlights the need for more robust evaluations and models, and allows us to systematically understand model brittleness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Fluid Language Model Benchmarking

Language model (LM) benchmarking faces several challenges: comprehensive evaluations are costly, benchmarks often fail to measure the intended capabilities, and evaluation quality can degrade due to labeling errors and benchmark saturation. Although various strategies have been proposed to mitigate these issues, they tend to address individual aspects in isolation, neglecting broader questions about overall evaluation quality. Here, we introduce Fluid Benchmarking, a new evaluation approach that advances LM benchmarking across multiple dimensions. Inspired by psychometrics, Fluid Benchmarking is based on the insight that the relative value of benchmark items depends on an LM's capability level, suggesting that evaluation should adapt to each LM. Methodologically, Fluid Benchmarking estimates an item response model based on existing LM evaluation results and uses the inferred quantities to select evaluation items dynamically, similar to computerized adaptive testing in education. In our experiments, we compare Fluid Benchmarking against the common practice of random item sampling as well as more sophisticated baselines, including alternative methods grounded in item response theory. We examine four dimensions -- efficiency, validity, variance, and saturation -- and find that Fluid Benchmarking achieves superior performance in all of them (e.g., higher validity and less variance on MMLU with fifty times fewer items). Our analysis shows that the two components of Fluid Benchmarking have distinct effects: item response theory, used to map performance into a latent ability space, increases validity, while dynamic item selection reduces variance. Overall, our results suggest that LM benchmarking can be substantially improved by moving beyond static evaluation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Signal and Noise: A Framework for Reducing Uncertainty in Language Model Evaluation

Developing large language models is expensive and involves making decisions with small experiments, typically by evaluating on large, multi-task evaluation suites. In this work, we analyze specific properties which make a benchmark more reliable for such decisions, and interventions to design higher-quality evaluation benchmarks. We introduce two key metrics that show differences in current benchmarks: signal, a benchmark's ability to separate better models from worse models, and noise, a benchmark's sensitivity to random variability between training steps. We demonstrate that benchmarks with a better signal-to-noise ratio are more reliable when making decisions at small scale, and those with less noise have lower scaling law prediction error. These results suggest that improving signal or noise will lead to more useful benchmarks, so we introduce three interventions designed to directly affect signal or noise. For example, we propose that switching to a metric that has better signal and noise (e.g., perplexity rather than accuracy) leads to better reliability and improved scaling law error. We also find that filtering noisy subtasks, to improve an aggregate signal-to-noise ratio, leads to more reliable multi-task evaluations. We also find that averaging the output of a model's intermediate checkpoints to reduce noise leads to consistent improvements. We conclude by recommending that those creating new benchmarks, or selecting which existing benchmarks to use, aim for high signal and low noise. We use 30 benchmarks for these experiments, and 375 open-weight language models from 60M to 32B parameters, resulting in a new, publicly available dataset of 900K evaluation benchmark results, totaling 200M instances.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

SciArena: An Open Evaluation Platform for Non-Verifiable Scientific Literature-Grounded Tasks

We present SciArena, an open and collaborative platform for evaluating foundation models on scientific literature-grounded tasks. Unlike traditional benchmarks for scientific literature understanding and synthesis, SciArena engages the research community directly, following the Chatbot Arena evaluation approach of community voting on model comparisons. By leveraging collective intelligence, SciArena offers a community-driven evaluation of model performance on open-ended scientific tasks that demand literature-grounded, long-form responses. The platform currently supports 47 foundation models and has collected over 20,000 votes from human researchers across diverse scientific domains. Our analysis of the data collected so far confirms its high quality. We discuss the results and insights based on the model ranking leaderboard. To further promote research in building model-based automated evaluation systems for literature tasks, we release SciArena-Eval, a meta-evaluation benchmark based on collected preference data. It measures the accuracy of models in judging answer quality by comparing their pairwise assessments with human votes. Our experiments highlight the benchmark's challenges and emphasize the need for more reliable automated evaluation methods.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Position: Machine Learning Conferences Should Establish a "Refutations and Critiques" Track

Science progresses by iteratively advancing and correcting humanity's understanding of the world. In machine learning (ML) research, rapid advancements have led to an explosion of publications, but have also led to misleading, incorrect, flawed or perhaps even fraudulent studies being accepted and sometimes highlighted at ML conferences due to the fallibility of peer review. While such mistakes are understandable, ML conferences do not offer robust processes to help the field systematically correct when such errors are made. This position paper argues that ML conferences should establish a dedicated "Refutations and Critiques" (R&C) Track. This R&C Track would provide a high-profile, reputable platform to support vital research that critically challenges prior research, thereby fostering a dynamic self-correcting research ecosystem. We discuss key considerations including track design, review principles, potential pitfalls, and provide an illustrative example submission concerning a recent ICLR 2025 Oral. We conclude that ML conferences should create official, reputable mechanisms to help ML research self-correct.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

DataDecide: How to Predict Best Pretraining Data with Small Experiments

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

OLMoTrace: Tracing Language Model Outputs Back to Trillions of Training Tokens

We present OLMoTrace, the first system that traces the outputs of language models back to their full, multi-trillion-token training data in real time. OLMoTrace finds and shows verbatim matches between segments of language model output and documents in the training text corpora. Powered by an extended version of infini-gram (Liu et al., 2024), our system returns tracing results within a few seconds. OLMoTrace can help users understand the behavior of language models through the lens of their training data. We showcase how it can be used to explore fact checking, hallucination, and the creativity of language models. OLMoTrace is publicly available and fully open-source.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Holistically Evaluating the Environmental Impact of Creating Language Models

As the performance of artificial intelligence systems has dramatically increased, so too has the environmental impact of creating these systems. While many model developers release estimates of the power consumption and carbon emissions from the final training runs for their latest models, there is comparatively little transparency into the impact of model development, hardware manufacturing, and total water usage throughout. In this work, we estimate the real-world environmental impact of developing a series of language models, ranging from 20 million to 13 billion active parameters, trained on up to 5.6 trillion tokens each. When accounting for hardware manufacturing, model development, and our final training runs, we find that our series of models released 493 metric tons of carbon emissions, equivalent to powering about 98 homes in the United States for one year, and consumed 2.769 million liters of water, equivalent to about 24.5 years of water usage by a person in the United States, even though our data center is extremely water-efficient. We measure and report the environmental impact of our model development; to the best of our knowledge we are the first to do so for LLMs, and we find that model development, the impact of which is generally not disclosed by most model developers, amounted to ~50% of that of training. By looking at detailed time series data for power consumption, we also find that power usage throughout training is not consistent, fluctuating between ~15% and ~85% of our hardware's maximum power draw, with negative implications for grid-scale planning as demand continues to grow. We close with a discussion on the continued difficulty of estimating the environmental impact of AI systems, and key takeaways for model developers and the public at large.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

The Generative AI Ethics Playbook

The Generative AI Ethics Playbook provides guidance for identifying and mitigating risks of machine learning systems across various domains, including natural language processing, computer vision, and generative AI. This playbook aims to assist practitioners in diagnosing potential harms that may arise during the design, development, and deployment of datasets and models. It offers concrete strategies and resources for mitigating these risks, to help minimize negative impacts on users and society. Drawing on current best practices in both research and ethical considerations, this playbook aims to serve as a comprehensive resource for AI/ML practitioners. The intended audience of this playbook includes machine learning researchers, engineers, and practitioners who are involved in the creation and implementation of generative and multimodal models (e.g., text-to-text, image-to-image, text-to-image, text-to-video). Specifically, we provide transparency/documentation checklists, topics of interest, common questions, examples of harms through case studies, and resources and strategies to mitigate harms throughout the Generative AI lifecycle. This playbook was made collaboratively over the course of 16 months through extensive literature review of over 100 resources and peer-reviewed articles, as well as through an initial group brainstorming session with 18 interdisciplinary AI ethics experts from industry and academia, and with additional feedback from 8 experts (5 of whom were in the initial brainstorming session). We note that while this playbook provides examples, discussion, and harm mitigation strategies, research in this area is ongoing. Our playbook aims to be a practically useful survey, taking a high-level view rather than aiming for covering the entire existing body of research.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Establishing Task Scaling Laws via Compute-Efficient Model Ladders

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: (1) use model and data size to predict an intermediate loss, then (2) use it to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks formatted as ranked classification, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We find that tasks with higher prediction error also have higher variance in the metrics over model checkpoints. We also contrast multiple design choices for predicting accuracy, and present recommendations for extending our method to new models and tasks.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Scalable Data Ablation Approximations for Language Models through Modular Training and Merging

Training data compositions for Large Language Models (LLMs) can significantly affect their downstream performance. However, a thorough data ablation study exploring large sets of candidate data mixtures is typically prohibitively expensive since the full effect is seen only after training the models; this can lead practitioners to settle for sub-optimal data mixtures. We propose an efficient method for approximating data ablations which trains individual models on subsets of a training corpus and reuses them across evaluations of combinations of subsets. In continued pre-training experiments, we find that, given an arbitrary evaluation set, the perplexity score of a single model trained on a candidate set of data is strongly correlated with perplexity scores of parameter averages of models trained on distinct partitions of that data. From this finding, we posit that researchers and practitioners can conduct inexpensive simulations of data ablations by maintaining a pool of models that were each trained on partitions of a large training corpus, and assessing candidate data mixtures by evaluating parameter averages of combinations of these models. This approach allows for substantial improvements in amortized training efficiency -- scaling only linearly with respect to new data -- by enabling reuse of previous training computation, opening new avenues for improving model performance through rigorous, incremental data assessment and mixing.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Merge to Learn: Efficiently Adding Skills to Language Models with Model Merging

Adapting general-purpose language models to new skills is currently an expensive process that must be repeated as new instruction datasets targeting new skills are created, or can cause the models to forget older skills. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of adding new skills to preexisting models by training on the new skills in isolation and later merging with the general model (e.g. using task vectors). In experiments focusing on scientific literature understanding, safety, and coding, we find that the parallel-train-then-merge procedure, which is significantly cheaper than retraining the models on updated data mixtures, is often comparably effective. Our experiments also show that parallel training is especially well-suited for enabling safety features in LMs relative to continued finetuning and retraining, as it dramatically improves model compliance with safe prompts while preserving its ability to refuse dangerous or harmful prompts.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

OLMES: A Standard for Language Model Evaluations

Progress in AI is often demonstrated by new models claiming improved performance on tasks measuring model capabilities. Evaluating language models can be particularly challenging, as choices of how a model is evaluated on a task can lead to large changes in measured performance. There is no common standard setup, so different models are evaluated on the same tasks in different ways, leading to claims about which models perform best not being reproducible. We propose OLMES, a completely documented, practical, open standard for reproducible LLM evaluations. In developing this standard, we identify and review the varying factors in evaluation practices adopted by the community - such as details of prompt formatting, choice of in-context examples, probability normalizations, and task formulation. In particular, OLMES supports meaningful comparisons between smaller base models that require the unnatural "cloze" formulation of multiple-choice questions against larger models that can utilize the original formulation. OLMES includes well-considered, documented recommendations guided by results from existing literature as well as new experiments resolving open questions.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

OLMo: Accelerating the Science of Language Models

Language models (LMs) have become ubiquitous in both NLP research and in commercial product offerings. As their commercial importance has surged, the most powerful models have become closed off, gated behind proprietary interfaces, with important details of their training data, architectures, and development undisclosed. Given the importance of these details in scientifically studying these models, including their biases and potential risks, we believe it is essential for the research community to have access to powerful, truly open LMs. To this end, we have built OLMo, a competitive, truly Open Language Model, to enable the scientific study of language models. Unlike most prior efforts that have only released model weights and inference code, we release OLMo alongside open training data and training and evaluation code. We hope this release will empower the open research community and inspire a new wave of innovation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Dolma: an Open Corpus of Three Trillion Tokens for Language Model Pretraining Research

Information about pretraining corpora used to train the current best-performing language models is seldom discussed: commercial models rarely detail their data, and even open models are often released without accompanying training data or recipes to reproduce them. As a result, it is challenging to conduct and advance scientific research on language modeling, such as understanding how training data impacts model capabilities and limitations. To facilitate scientific research on language model pretraining, we curate and release Dolma, a three-trillion-token English corpus, built from a diverse mixture of web content, scientific papers, code, public-domain books, social media, and encyclopedic materials. We extensively document Dolma, including its design principles, details about its construction, and a summary of its contents. We present analyses and experimental results on intermediate states of Dolma to share what we have learned about important data curation practices. Finally, we open-source our data curation toolkit to enable reproduction of our work as well as support further research in large-scale data curation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

AboutMe: Using Self-Descriptions in Webpages to Document the Effects of English Pretraining Data Filters

Large language models' (LLMs) abilities are drawn from their pretraining data, and model development begins with data curation. However, decisions around what data is retained or removed during this initial stage are under-scrutinized. In our work, we ground web text, which is a popular pretraining data source, to its social and geographic contexts. We create a new dataset of 10.3 million self-descriptions of website creators, and extract information about who they are and where they are from: their topical interests, social roles, and geographic affiliations. Then, we conduct the first study investigating how ten "quality" and English language identification (langID) filters affect webpages that vary along these social dimensions. Our experiments illuminate a range of implicit preferences in data curation: we show that some quality classifiers act like topical domain filters, and langID can overlook English content from some regions of the world. Overall, we hope that our work will encourage a new line of research on pretraining data curation practices and its social implications.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Paloma: A Benchmark for Evaluating Language Model Fit

Evaluations of language models (LMs) commonly report perplexity on monolithic data held out from training. Implicitly or explicitly, this data is composed of domains--varying distributions of language. We introduce Perplexity Analysis for Language Model Assessment (Paloma), a benchmark to measure LM fit to 546 English and code domains, instead of assuming perplexity on one distribution extrapolates to others. We include two new datasets of the top 100 subreddits (e.g., r/depression on Reddit) and programming languages (e.g., Java on GitHub), both sources common in contemporary LMs. With our benchmark, we release 6 baseline 1B LMs carefully controlled to provide fair comparisons about which pretraining corpus is best and code for others to apply those controls to their own experiments. Our case studies demonstrate how the fine-grained results from Paloma surface findings such as that models pretrained without data beyond Common Crawl exhibit anomalous gaps in LM fit to many domains or that loss is dominated by the most frequently occurring strings in the vocabulary.

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