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Jessica Riccioni

Publications and source records attributed to Jessica Riccioni.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

A new behavioral model for portfolio selection using the Half-Full/Half-Empty approach

We focus on a behavioral model, that has been recently proposed in the literature, whose rational can be traced back to the Half-Full/Half-Empty glass metaphor. More precisely, we generalize the Half-Full/Half-Empty approach to the context of positive and negative lotteries and give financial and behavioral interpretations of the Half-Full/Half-Empty parameters. We develop a portfolio selection model based on the Half-Full/Half-Empty strategy, resulting in a nonconvex optimization problem, which, nonetheless, is proven to be equivalent to an alternative Mixed-Integer Linear Programming formulation. By means of the ensuing empirical analysis, based on three real-world datasets, the Half-Full/Half-Empty model is shown to be very versatile by appropriately varying its parameters, and to provide portfolios displaying promising performances in terms of risk and profitability, compared with Prospect Theory, risk minimization approaches and Equally-Weighted portfolios.

q-fin.PM

Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems

Here we introduce the idea of using rational expectations, a core concept in economics and finance, as a tool to predict the optimal failure time for a wide class of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems. We illustrate the concept by applying it to systems which have components with heterogeneous failure times. Depending on the heterogeneous distributions of component failure, we find different measures to be optimal for predicting the failure time of the total system. We give examples of how, as a given system deteriorates over time, one can issue different optimal predictions of system failure by choosing among a set of time-dependent measures.

physics.soc-ph

The interconnectedness of the economic content in the speeches of the US Presidents

The speeches stated by influential politicians can have a decisive impact on the future of a country. In particular, the economic content of such speeches affects the economy of countries and their financial markets. For this reason, we examine a novel dataset containing the economic content of 951 speeches stated by 45 US Presidents from George Washington (April 1789) to Donald Trump (February 2017). In doing so, we use an economic glossary carried out by means of text mining techniques. The goal of our study is to examine the structure of significant interconnections within a network obtained from the economic content of presidential speeches. In such a network, nodes are represented by talks and links by values of cosine similarity, the latter computed using the occurrences of the economic terms in the speeches. The resulting network displays a peculiar structure made up of a core (i.e. a set of highly central and densely connected nodes) and a periphery (i.e. a set of non-central and sparsely connected nodes). The presence of different economic dictionaries employed by the Presidents characterize the core-periphery structure. The Presidents' talks belonging to the network's core share the usage of generic (non-technical) economic locutions like "interest" or "trade". While the use of more technical and less frequent terms characterizes the periphery (e.g. "yield" ). Furthermore, the speeches close in time share a common economic dictionary. These results together with the economics glossary usages during the US periods of boom and crisis provide unique insights on the economic content relationships among Presidents' speeches.

econ.GN