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Ji Zhu

Publications and source records attributed to Ji Zhu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Mixed Engression: Distributional Regression for Multivariate Mixed-Type Responses

Estimating the conditional distribution of multivariate responses with continuous and binary components requires capturing their dependence, respecting their different supports, and accommodating potentially heavy-tailed continuous outcomes. We propose mixed engression, which fits a continuous generator using energy losses induced by bounded discrepancies and then thresholds its soft binary outputs to produce mixed-response samples. Because the discrepancies are bounded, the population objective remains well defined without response-moment assumptions. However, we show that the full-response energy distance for the complete response vector can tend to zero before thresholding yet remain bounded away from zero afterward as response dimensions grow. A separate energy loss on the entire binary vector captures discrepancies obscured by the full-response comparison and controls the effect of thresholding. The generator is therefore fitted using an augmented energy loss that combines the full-response and binary components. Under compositional smoothness of the structural functions and a uniform threshold-margin condition, we derive nonasymptotic bounds on the final sampler's full-response error for sparse ReLU estimators of models driven by Gaussian or Student-t structural noise, yielding polynomial convergence rates up to logarithmic factors. We also establish consistency when the covariate, response, and noise dimensions grow under suitable conditions. Simulations show improved accuracy relative to the comparison methods under the full-response energy distance, including in heavy-tailed settings. Moderate binary augmentation substantially improves binary-distribution accuracy while largely preserving full-response accuracy.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Noisy Matrix Completion under Informative Missingness

Noisy matrix completion is a fundamental problem in statistical learning and has attracted a substantial amount of interest over the last two decades. In a variety of applications, the missingness pattern is highly informative, yet it has received relatively less attention. Most existing methods either overlook this source of information or oversimplify its generating process, with few attempting to model the association between the data matrix and its informative missingness. In this study, we propose a general modeling framework that jointly models the data matrix and its missingness pattern using a pair of low-rank models coupled by a flexible shared linear structure. This joint low-rank approach incorporates the informative missingness to improve matrix completion and can flexibly capture various associations between the two modes of data. We develop an efficient joint estimation procedure for this framework based on projected gradient descent, and establish local convergence guarantees that unveil its computational and statistical properties. We further demonstrate, through extensive simulation studies and real-world data analysis, that our proposed approach outperforms competing methods, achieving substantial improvements in prediction accuracy on missing entries.

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arXiv2026

Hypergraph Representation Learning with Hyperlink Random Effects

Hypergraphs record multi-way interactions among entities. Extracting information from the combinatorial structure underlying observed multi-way interactions is a central task in many real-world problems. Existing methods face several limitations. First, many deep architectures for hypergraphs do not explicitly exploit the potential low-rank structure, which can sacrifice parsimony and interpretability in the learned representations. Second, many low-rank-based methods operate on tensor representations, which typically require hyperlinks to have uniform sizes and thus limit their applicability to general hypergraphs with non-uniform hyperlink sizes. Third, many methods ignore the fact that hyperlinks often arise from heterogeneous mechanisms. For example, medical symptoms may co-occur in the profiles of patients with very different conditions, and such heterogeneity should be incorporated into the learning process. In this work, we develop a general framework for hypergraph representation learning using hyperlink random effects while exploiting the low-rank structure in hypergraphs. The proposed framework accommodates latent heterogeneity in hyperlink formation while preserving entity interaction patterns. We establish identifiability of the model parameters and theoretical guarantees of representation-level recovery under this framework. The framework allows flexible specifications for the hyperlink random effects; in this paper, we study three choices: categorical, Gaussian mixture, and score-based effects, and develop corresponding estimation algorithms. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in recovering latent structure and capturing heterogeneous interaction patterns. Empirical studies on real-world hypergraph datasets further illustrate the practical utility of our approach.

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arXiv2026

Conformal Prediction for Dyadic Regression Under Complex Missingness

We develop a framework for conformal prediction in dyadic regression problems under complex missingness mechanisms. At the theoretical level, we develop general technical tools for establishing finite-sample validity of conformal prediction under distributional invariance conditions weaker than exchangeability. A key result handles the case where the sample itself is a random subset of the index set, a setting not covered by existing theory. In addition, we propose conformal prediction procedures for jointly exchangeable arrays, including full conformal, split conformal, a row-column approach exploiting similarities within rows and columns, and a selective conformal procedure achieving mask-conditional validity. For missing elements, we establish asymptotic validity of a weighted conformal procedure under a nonparametric graphon model for the missingness mechanism. We further establish conditional validity results for both continuous and discrete responses; to the best of our knowledge, this is the first formal proof of asymptotic conditional validity for weighted conformal prediction under a missing-not-at-random assumption. The proposed methods are illustrated on synthetic and real network data.

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arXiv2026

Interpretable Network-assisted Random Forest+

Machine learning algorithms often assume that training samples are independent. When data points are connected by a network, the induced dependency between samples is both a challenge, reducing effective sample size, and an opportunity to improve prediction by leveraging information from network neighbors. Multiple methods taking advantage of this opportunity are available, but many, including graph neural networks, are not easily interpretable, limiting their usefulness for understanding how models make predictions. Others, such as network-assisted linear regression, are interpretable but often yield worse prediction performance. We bridge this gap by proposing a family of flexible network-assisted models built upon a generalization of random forests (RF+), which achieves highly-competitive prediction accuracy and can be understood through intrinsic interpretability measures, derived directly from the model parameters and structure. In particular, we develop a suite of interpretation tools that enable researchers to both identify important features that drive model predictions and quantify the importance of the network contribution to prediction. Importantly, we provide global and local feature importances as well as sample influence measures to assess the impact of individual observations. This suite of tools broadens the scope and applicability of network-assisted machine learning for high-impact problems where interpretability and transparency are essential.

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arXiv2026

Conditional-Independence-Regularized Distributional Autoencoders for Mixed-Type Data

Mixed-type data containing both numerical and categorical variables arise in many scientific and real-world applications. Existing representation learning and generative modeling approaches typically focus either on reconstruction accuracy or unconditional data generation, but often fail to recover the full conditional distribution of the data while preserving interpretable structural relationships between heterogeneous variable types. In this work, we introduce Conditional-Independence-Regularized Distributional Autoencoders, a framework for learning low-dimensional representations of mixed-type data through conditional distribution matching and structural regularization. Our method combines an energy-score-based objective for numerical variables, a likelihood-based objective for categorical variables, and an auxiliary conditional independence regularization term encouraging the learned representation to capture the dependence between numerical and categorical components. We provide theoretical analysis showing that the optimal representation balances unexplained numerical variability, conditional entropy of categorical variables, and residual conditional dependence. Empirically, the proposed method achieves strong performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets, substantially improving categorical distribution recovery, achieving competitive overall conditional distribution recovery, and preserving mixed-type dependence structure. The code has been made available at GitHub.

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arXiv2026

Heterogeneous Treatment Effects under Network Interference: A Nonparametric Approach Based on Node Connectivity

In network settings, interference between units makes causal inference more challenging as outcomes may depend on the treatments received by others in the network. Typical estimands in network settings focus on treatment effects aggregated across individuals in the population. We propose a framework for estimating node-wise counterfactual means, allowing for more granular insights into the impact of network structure on treatment effect heterogeneity. We develop a doubly robust and non-parametric estimation procedure, KECENI (Kernel Estimator of Causal Effect under Network Interference), which offers consistency and asymptotic normality under network dependence. The utility of this method is demonstrated through an application to microfinance data, revealing the impact of network characteristics on treatment effects.

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arXiv2026

Efficient Synthetic Network Generation via Latent Embedding Reconstruction

Network data are ubiquitous across the social sciences, biology, and information systems. Generating realistic synthetic network data has broad applications from network simulation to scientific discovery. However, many existing black-box approaches for network generation tend to overfit observed data while overlooking characteristic network structure, and incur substantial computational overhead at scale. These practical challenges call for synthetic network generation methods that are both efficient and capable of capturing structural properties of networks. In this paper, we introduce Synthetic Network Generation via Latent Embedding Reconstruction (SyNGLER), a general and efficient framework for synthetic network generation that builds on latent space network models. Given an observed network, SyNGLER first learns low-dimensional latent node embeddings via a latent space network model and then reconstructs the latent space by building a distribution-free generator over these embeddings. For generation, SyNGLER first samples (or resamples) node embeddings from the generator in the latent space and then produces synthetic networks using the latent space network model. Through the latent space framework, SyNGLER preserves unique characteristics in networks such as sparsity and node degree heterogeneity, while allowing for efficient training with lower computational cost than many existing deep architectures. We provide theoretical guarantees by developing consistency results on the distance between the true and synthetic edge distributions. Empirical studies further demonstrate the effectiveness of SyNGLER, which efficiently produces networks that better preserve key network characteristics such as network moments and degree distributions compared with existing approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/FeifanJiang/syngler.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Theoretical Analysis of Engression and Reverse Markov Engression

Engression is a recently proposed and effective framework for conditional distribution learning. Its multi-step Reverse Markov extension further improves generative flexibility by decomposing complex conditional sampling into sequential reverse transitions. Despite their strong empirical performance, rigorous finite-sample statistical guarantees for these methods remain unavailable. In this paper, under deep neural network parameterizations, we establish nonasymptotic convergence bounds for Engression by directly controlling the Energy Distance between the learned and target conditional distributions. For the Reverse Markov framework, we further develop an Energy-Distance-based chain rule that enables a rigorous analysis of error propagation across reverse steps. Our analysis yields corresponding excess-risk bounds that are near-optimal up to logarithmic factors relative to the classical minimax rate over a general Hölder class.

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arXiv2026

Denoising Diffused Embeddings: a Generative Approach for Hypergraphs

Hypergraph data, which capture multi-way interactions among entities, are increasingly prevalent in the big data era. Generating new hyperlinks from an observed, usually high-dimensional hypergraph is an important yet challenging task with diverse applications in areas such as electronic health record analysis and biological research. This task is fraught with several challenges. The discrete nature of hyperlinks renders many existing generative models inapplicable. Additionally, powerful machine learning-based generative models often operate as black boxes, providing limited interpretability. Key structural characteristics of hypergraphs, including node degree heterogeneity and hyperlink sparsity, further complicate the modeling process and must be carefully addressed. To tackle these challenges, we propose Denoising Diffused Embeddings (DDE), a general and efficient generative modeling architecture for hypergraphs. DDE exploits low-rank structure in high-dimensional hypergraphs via a conditional hyperlink likelihood model that links discrete hyperlinks to a continuous latent embedding space and leverages a score-based diffusion model to reconstruct that space. Theoretically, we show that when true latent embeddings are accessible, DDE exactly reduces the task of generating new high-dimensional hyperlinks to generating new low-dimensional embeddings. Moreover, we analyze the implications of using estimated embeddings in DDE, revealing how hypergraph characteristics such as dimensionality, node degree heterogeneity, and hyperlink sparsity impact its generative performance. Simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of DDE over existing methods, in terms of both computational efficiency and generative performance. Furthermore, an application to a symptom co-occurrence hypergraph derived from electronic medical records uncovers interesting findings and highlights the advantages of DDE.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

From Simple to Composite Perturbations: A Unified Decomposition Framework for Stochastic Block Models

Statistical inference for stochastic block models typically relies on the spectrum of the normalized adjacency matrix $\A^*$. In practice, the true probability matrix $\mathbf{B}$ is unknown and must be replaced by a plug-in estimator $\hat{\mathbf{B}}$. This substitution introduces two distinct types of estimation error: a simple perturbation $\boldsymbolΔ$, arising when $\hat{\mathbf{B}}$ replaces $\mathbf{B}$ only in the numerator, and a composite perturbation $\tilde{\boldsymbolΔ}$, arising when the replacement occurs in both the numerator and the denominator. Under both perturbation regimes, we decompose the total sum of squares into three components and conduct a detailed analysis of their asymptotic properties. This reveals a key, and perhaps surprising, distinction between simple and composite perturbations: the cross term $\tr({\A^*}\bDelta)$ is asymptotically negligible, whereas its composite counterpart $\tr({\A^*}\tilde{\bDelta})$ is not. Motivated by this, we develop a unified decomposition framework, expressing the composite perturbation matrix as $\tilde{\bDelta}=\check{\A}+\bDelta+\check{\bDelta}$, where $\check{\A}$ is a bias matrix of the normalized adjacency matrix, $\bDelta$ is the simple perturbation, and $\check{\bDelta}$ is a bias matrix of $\bDelta$. This structured decomposition allows us to precisely isolate and control each source of error, leading to a refined limiting theory for two key classes of test statistics. Concretely, for the largest eigenvalue statistic, we improve the existing condition from $K=O(n^{1/6-τ})$ to the optimal rate $K=o(n^{1/6})$ under both simple and composite perturbations. For the linear spectral statistic, our unified decomposition framework provides the necessary structure to systematically control these errors term by term, leading to a complete and rigorous proof of asymptotic normality.

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arXiv2026

Limiting laws and consistent estimation criteria for fixed and diverging number of spiked eigenvalues

In this paper, we study limiting laws and consistent estimation criteria for the extreme eigenvalues in a spiked covariance model of dimension $p$. Firstly, for fixed $p$, we propose a generalized estimation criterion that can consistently estimate, $k$, the number of spiked eigenvalues. Compared with the existing literature, we show that consistency can be achieved under weaker conditions on the penalty term. Next, allowing both $p$ and $k$ to diverge, we derive limiting distributions of the spiked sample eigenvalues using random matrix theory techniques. Notably, our results do not require the spiked eigenvalues to be uniformly bounded from above or tending to infinity, as have been assumed in the existing literature. Based on the above derived results, we formulate a generalized estimation criterion and show that it can consistently estimate $k$, while $k$ can be fixed or grow at an order of $k=o(n^{1/3})$. We further show that the results in our work continue to hold under a general population distribution without assuming normality. The efficacy of the proposed estimation criteria is illustrated through comparative simulation studies.

math.ST↗
arXiv2026

Mesoscale two-sample testing for networks

Networks arise naturally in many scientific fields as a representation of pairwise connections. Statistical network analysis has most often considered a single large network, but it is common in a number of applications to observe multiple networks on a shared node set. When these networks are grouped by case-control status or another categorical covariate, the classical statistical question of two-sample comparison arises. In this work, we address the problem of testing for statistically significant differences in a given arbitrary subset of connections. This general framework allows an analyst to focus on a single node, a specific region of interest, or compare whole networks. Our ability to conduct ``mesoscale'' testing on a meaningful group of edges is particularly relevant for applications such as neuroimaging and distinguishes our approach from prior work, which tends to focus either on a single node or the whole network. In this mesoscale setting, we develop statistically sound projection-based tests for two-sample comparison in both weighted and binary edge networks. The key to our approach is to leverage network information from outside the set of interest to learn informative low-rank projections which leads to more powerful tests.

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arXiv2026

Latent space models for grouped multiplex networks

Complex multilayer network datasets have become ubiquitous in various applications, including neuroscience, social sciences, economics, and genetics. Notable examples include brain connectivity networks collected across multiple patients or trade networks between countries collected across multiple goods. Existing statistical approaches to such data typically focus on modeling the structure shared by all networks; some go further by accounting for individual, layer-specific variation. However, real-world multilayer networks often exhibit additional patterns shared only within certain subsets of layers, which can represent treatment and control groups, or patients grouped by a specific trait. Identifying these group-level structures can uncover systematic differences between groups of networks and influence many downstream tasks, such as testing and low-dimensional visualization. To address this gap, we introduce the GroupMultiNeSS model, which enables the simultaneous extraction of shared, group-specific, and individual latent structures from a sample of networks on a shared node set. For this model, we establish identifiability, develop a fitting procedure using convex optimization in combination with a nuclear norm penalty, and prove a guarantee of recovery for the latent positions as long as there is sufficient separation between the shared, group-specific, and individual latent subspaces. We compare the model with MultiNeSS and other models for multiplex networks in various synthetic scenarios and observe an apparent improvement in the modeling accuracy when the group component is accounted for. Experiment with the Parkinson's disease brain connectivity dataset demonstrates the superiority of GroupMultiNeSS in highlighting node-level insights on biological differences between the treatment and control patient groups.

cs.SI↗
arXiv2026

Balanced Stochastic Block Model for Community Detection in Signed Networks

Community detection, discovering the underlying communities within a network from observed connections, is a fundamental problem in network analysis, yet it remains underexplored for signed networks. In signed networks, both edge connection patterns and edge signs are informative, and structural balance theory (e.g., triangles aligned with ``the enemy of my enemy is my friend'' and ``the friend of my friend is my friend'' are more prevalent) provides a global higher-order principle that guides community formation. We propose a Balanced Stochastic Block Model (BSBM), which incorporates balance theory into the network generating process such that balanced triangles are more likely to occur. We develop a fast profile pseudo-likelihood estimation algorithm with provable convergence and establish that our estimator achieves strong consistency under weaker signal conditions than methods for the binary SBM that rely solely on edge connectivity. Extensive simulation studies and two real-world signed networks demonstrate strong empirical performance.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Hyperbolic Network Latent Space Model with Learnable Curvature

Network data is ubiquitous in various scientific disciplines, including sociology, economics, and neuroscience. Latent space models are often employed in network data analysis, but the geometric effect of latent space curvature remains a significant, unresolved issue. In this work, we propose a hyperbolic network latent space model with a learnable curvature parameter. We theoretically justify that learning the optimal curvature is essential to minimizing the embedding error across all hyperbolic embedding methods beyond network latent space models. A maximum-likelihood estimation strategy, employing manifold gradient optimization, is developed, and we establish the consistency and convergence rates for the maximum-likelihood estimators, both of which are technically challenging due to the non-linearity and non-convexity of the hyperbolic distance metric. We further demonstrate the geometric effect of latent space curvature and the superior performance of the proposed model through extensive simulation studies and an application using a Facebook friendship network.

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arXiv2026

FAIR: Framing AIs Role in Programming Competitions -- Understanding How LLMs Are Changing the Game in Competitive Programming

This paper investigates how large language models (LLMs) are reshaping competitive programming. The field functions as an intellectual contest within computer science education and is marked by rapid iteration, real-time feedback, transparent solutions, and strict integrity norms. Prior work has evaluated LLMs performance on contest problems, but little is known about how human stakeholders -- contestants, problem setters, coaches, and platform stewards -- are adapting their workflows and contest norms under LLMs-induced shifts. At the same time, rising AI-assisted misuse and inconsistent governance expose urgent gaps in sustaining fairness and credibility. Drawing on 37 interviews spanning all four roles and a global survey of 207 contestants, as well as an API-based crawl of Codeforces contest logs (2022-2025) for quantitative analysis, we contribute: (i) an empirical account of evolving workflows, (ii) an analysis of contested fairness norms, and (iii) a chess-inspired governance approach with actionable measures -- real-time LLMs checks in online contests, peer co-monitoring and reporting, and cross-validation against offline performance -- to curb LLMs-assisted misuse while preserving fairness, transparency, and credibility.

cs.HC↗
arXiv2026

Locally sparse varying coefficient mixed model with application to longitudinal microbiome differential abundance

Differential abundance (DA) analysis in microbiome studies has recently been used to uncover a plethora of associations between microbial composition and various health conditions. While current approaches to DA typically apply only to cross-sectional data, many studies feature a longitudinal design to better understand the underlying microbial dynamics. To study DA in longitudinal microbial studies, we introduce a novel varying coefficient mixed-effects model with local sparsity. The proposed method can identify time intervals of significant group differences while accounting for temporal dependence. Specifically, we exploit a penalized kernel smoothing approach for parameter estimation and include a random effect to account for serial correlation. In particular, our method operates effectively regardless of whether sampling times are shared across subjects, accommodating irregular sampling and missing observations. Simulation studies demonstrate the necessity of modeling dependence for precise estimation and support recovery. The application of our method to a longitudinal study of mice oral microbiome during cancer development revealed significant scientific insights that were otherwise not discernible through cross-sectional analyses. An R implementation is available at https://github.com/fontaine618/LSVCMM.

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