arXiv subjects

Jia Zeng

Publications and source records attributed to Jia Zeng.

68 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

DFSeer: A Visual Analytics Approach to Facilitate Model Selection for Demand Forecasting

Selecting an appropriate model to forecast product demand is critical to the manufacturing industry. However, due to the data complexity, market uncertainty and users' demanding requirements for the model, it is challenging for demand analysts to select a proper model. Although existing model selection methods can reduce the manual burden to some extent, they often fail to present model performance details on individual products and reveal the potential risk of the selected model. This paper presents DFSeer, an interactive visualization system to conduct reliable model selection for demand forecasting based on the products with similar historical demand. It supports model comparison and selection with different levels of details. Besides, it shows the difference in model performance on similar products to reveal the risk of model selection and increase users' confidence in choosing a forecasting model. Two case studies and interviews with domain experts demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of DFSeer.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Block Hankel Tensor ARIMA for Multiple Short Time Series Forecasting

This work proposes a novel approach for multiple time series forecasting. At first, multi-way delay embedding transform (MDT) is employed to represent time series as low-rank block Hankel tensors (BHT). Then, the higher-order tensors are projected to compressed core tensors by applying Tucker decomposition. At the same time, the generalized tensor Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is explicitly used on consecutive core tensors to predict future samples. In this manner, the proposed approach tactically incorporates the unique advantages of MDT tensorization (to exploit mutual correlations) and tensor ARIMA coupled with low-rank Tucker decomposition into a unified framework. This framework exploits the low-rank structure of block Hankel tensors in the embedded space and captures the intrinsic correlations among multiple TS, which thus can improve the forecasting results, especially for multiple short time series. Experiments conducted on three public datasets and two industrial datasets verify that the proposed BHT-ARIMA effectively improves forecasting accuracy and reduces computational cost compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Transfer Learning-Based Outdoor Position Recovery with Telco Data

Telecommunication (Telco) outdoor position recovery aims to localize outdoor mobile devices by leveraging measurement report (MR) data. Unfortunately, Telco position recovery requires sufficient amount of MR samples across different areas and suffers from high data collection cost. For an area with scarce MR samples, it is hard to achieve good accuracy. In this paper, by leveraging the recently developed transfer learning techniques, we design a novel Telco position recovery framework, called TLoc, to transfer good models in the carefully selected source domains (those fine-grained small subareas) to a target one which originally suffers from poor localization accuracy. Specifically, TLoc introduces three dedicated components: 1) a new coordinate space to divide an area of interest into smaller domains, 2) a similarity measurement to select best source domains, and 3) an adaptation of an existing transfer learning approach. To the best of our knowledge, TLoc is the first framework that demonstrates the efficacy of applying transfer learning in the Telco outdoor position recovery. To exemplify, on the 2G GSM and 4G LTE MR datasets in Shanghai, TLoc outperforms a nontransfer approach by 27.58% and 26.12% less median errors, and further leads to 47.77% and 49.22% less median errors than a recent fingerprinting approach NBL.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

PlanningVis: A Visual Analytics Approach to Production Planning in Smart Factories

Production planning in the manufacturing industry is crucial for fully utilizing factory resources (e.g., machines, raw materials and workers) and reducing costs. With the advent of industry 4.0, plenty of data recording the status of factory resources have been collected and further involved in production planning, which brings an unprecedented opportunity to understand, evaluate and adjust complex production plans through a data-driven approach. However, developing a systematic analytics approach for production planning is challenging due to the large volume of production data, the complex dependency between products, and unexpected changes in the market and the plant. Previous studies only provide summarized results and fail to show details for comparative analysis of production plans. Besides, the rapid adjustment to the plan in the case of an unanticipated incident is also not supported. In this paper, we propose PlanningVis, a visual analytics system to support the exploration and comparison of production plans with three levels of details: a plan overview presenting the overall difference between plans, a product view visualizing various properties of individual products, and a production detail view displaying the product dependency and the daily production details in related factories. By integrating an automatic planning algorithm with interactive visual explorations, PlanningVis can facilitate the efficient optimization of daily production planning as well as support a quick response to unanticipated incidents in manufacturing. Two case studies with real-world data and carefully designed interviews with domain experts demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of PlanningVis.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2015

Fast Online EM for Big Topic Modeling

The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm can compute the maximum-likelihood (ML) or maximum a posterior (MAP) point estimate of the mixture models or latent variable models such as latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), which has been one of the most popular probabilistic topic modeling methods in the past decade. However, batch EM has high time and space complexities to learn big LDA models from big data streams. In this paper, we present a fast online EM (FOEM) algorithm that infers the topic distribution from the previously unseen documents incrementally with constant memory requirements. Within the stochastic approximation framework, we show that FOEM can converge to the local stationary point of the LDA's likelihood function. By dynamic scheduling for the fast speed and parameter streaming for the low memory usage, FOEM is more efficient for some lifelong topic modeling tasks than the state-of-the-art online LDA algorithms to handle both big data and big models (aka, big topic modeling) on just a PC.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2014

Peacock: Learning Long-Tail Topic Features for Industrial Applications

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a popular topic modeling technique in academia but less so in industry, especially in large-scale applications involving search engine and online advertising systems. A main underlying reason is that the topic models used have been too small in scale to be useful; for example, some of the largest LDA models reported in literature have up to $10^3$ topics, which cover difficultly the long-tail semantic word sets. In this paper, we show that the number of topics is a key factor that can significantly boost the utility of topic-modeling systems. In particular, we show that a "big" LDA model with at least $10^5$ topics inferred from $10^9$ search queries can achieve a significant improvement on industrial search engine and online advertising systems, both of which serving hundreds of millions of users. We develop a novel distributed system called Peacock to learn big LDA models from big data. The main features of Peacock include hierarchical distributed architecture, real-time prediction and topic de-duplication. We empirically demonstrate that the Peacock system is capable of providing significant benefits via highly scalable LDA topic models for several industrial applications.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2014

A New Approach to Speeding Up Topic Modeling

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a widely-used probabilistic topic modeling paradigm, and recently finds many applications in computer vision and computational biology. In this paper, we propose a fast and accurate batch algorithm, active belief propagation (ABP), for training LDA. Usually batch LDA algorithms require repeated scanning of the entire corpus and searching the complete topic space. To process massive corpora having a large number of topics, the training iteration of batch LDA algorithms is often inefficient and time-consuming. To accelerate the training speed, ABP actively scans the subset of corpus and searches the subset of topic space for topic modeling, therefore saves enormous training time in each iteration. To ensure accuracy, ABP selects only those documents and topics that contribute to the largest residuals within the residual belief propagation (RBP) framework. On four real-world corpora, ABP performs around $10$ to $100$ times faster than state-of-the-art batch LDA algorithms with a comparable topic modeling accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2013

Towards Big Topic Modeling

To solve the big topic modeling problem, we need to reduce both time and space complexities of batch latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) algorithms. Although parallel LDA algorithms on the multi-processor architecture have low time and space complexities, their communication costs among processors often scale linearly with the vocabulary size and the number of topics, leading to a serious scalability problem. To reduce the communication complexity among processors for a better scalability, we propose a novel communication-efficient parallel topic modeling architecture based on power law, which consumes orders of magnitude less communication time when the number of topics is large. We combine the proposed communication-efficient parallel architecture with the online belief propagation (OBP) algorithm referred to as POBP for big topic modeling tasks. Extensive empirical results confirm that POBP has the following advantages to solve the big topic modeling problem: 1) high accuracy, 2) communication-efficient, 3) fast speed, and 4) constant memory usage when compared with recent state-of-the-art parallel LDA algorithms on the multi-processor architecture.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

Communication-Efficient Parallel Belief Propagation for Latent Dirichlet Allocation

This paper presents a novel communication-efficient parallel belief propagation (CE-PBP) algorithm for training latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). Based on the synchronous belief propagation (BP) algorithm, we first develop a parallel belief propagation (PBP) algorithm on the parallel architecture. Because the extensive communication delay often causes a low efficiency of parallel topic modeling, we further use Zipf's law to reduce the total communication cost in PBP. Extensive experiments on different data sets demonstrate that CE-PBP achieves a higher topic modeling accuracy and reduces more than 80% communication cost than the state-of-the-art parallel Gibbs sampling (PGS) algorithm.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

Memory-Efficient Topic Modeling

As one of the simplest probabilistic topic modeling techniques, latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) has found many important applications in text mining, computer vision and computational biology. Recent training algorithms for LDA can be interpreted within a unified message passing framework. However, message passing requires storing previous messages with a large amount of memory space, increasing linearly with the number of documents or the number of topics. Therefore, the high memory usage is often a major problem for topic modeling of massive corpora containing a large number of topics. To reduce the space complexity, we propose a novel algorithm without storing previous messages for training LDA: tiny belief propagation (TBP). The basic idea of TBP relates the message passing algorithms with the non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithms, which absorb the message updating into the message passing process, and thus avoid storing previous messages. Experimental results on four large data sets confirm that TBP performs comparably well or even better than current state-of-the-art training algorithms for LDA but with a much less memory consumption. TBP can do topic modeling when massive corpora cannot fit in the computer memory, for example, extracting thematic topics from 7 GB PUBMED corpora on a common desktop computer with 2GB memory.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

Residual Belief Propagation for Topic Modeling

Fast convergence speed is a desired property for training latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), especially in online and parallel topic modeling for massive data sets. This paper presents a novel residual belief propagation (RBP) algorithm to accelerate the convergence speed for training LDA. The proposed RBP uses an informed scheduling scheme for asynchronous message passing, which passes fast-convergent messages with a higher priority to influence those slow-convergent messages at each learning iteration. Extensive empirical studies confirm that RBP significantly reduces the training time until convergence while achieves a much lower predictive perplexity than other state-of-the-art training algorithms for LDA, including variational Bayes (VB), collapsed Gibbs sampling (GS), loopy belief propagation (BP), and residual VB (RVB).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

A Topic Modeling Toolbox Using Belief Propagation

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is an important hierarchical Bayesian model for probabilistic topic modeling, which attracts worldwide interests and touches on many important applications in text mining, computer vision and computational biology. This paper introduces a topic modeling toolbox (TMBP) based on the belief propagation (BP) algorithms. TMBP toolbox is implemented by MEX C++/Matlab/Octave for either Windows 7 or Linux. Compared with existing topic modeling packages, the novelty of this toolbox lies in the BP algorithms for learning LDA-based topic models. The current version includes BP algorithms for latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), author-topic models (ATM), relational topic models (RTM), and labeled LDA (LaLDA). This toolbox is an ongoing project and more BP-based algorithms for various topic models will be added in the near future. Interested users may also extend BP algorithms for learning more complicated topic models. The source codes are freely available under the GNU General Public Licence, Version 1.0 at https://mloss.org/software/view/399/.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

Learning Topic Models by Belief Propagation

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is an important hierarchical Bayesian model for probabilistic topic modeling, which attracts worldwide interests and touches on many important applications in text mining, computer vision and computational biology. This paper represents LDA as a factor graph within the Markov random field (MRF) framework, which enables the classic loopy belief propagation (BP) algorithm for approximate inference and parameter estimation. Although two commonly-used approximate inference methods, such as variational Bayes (VB) and collapsed Gibbs sampling (GS), have gained great successes in learning LDA, the proposed BP is competitive in both speed and accuracy as validated by encouraging experimental results on four large-scale document data sets. Furthermore, the BP algorithm has the potential to become a generic learning scheme for variants of LDA-based topic models. To this end, we show how to learn two typical variants of LDA-based topic models, such as author-topic models (ATM) and relational topic models (RTM), using BP based on the factor graph representation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2011

Higher-Order Markov Tag-Topic Models for Tagged Documents and Images

This paper studies the topic modeling problem of tagged documents and images. Higher-order relations among tagged documents and images are major and ubiquitous characteristics, and play positive roles in extracting reliable and interpretable topics. In this paper, we propose the tag-topic models (TTM) to depict such higher-order topic structural dependencies within the Markov random field (MRF) framework. First, we use the novel factor graph representation of latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)-based topic models from the MRF perspective, and present an efficient loopy belief propagation (BP) algorithm for approximate inference and parameter estimation. Second, we propose the factor hypergraph representation of TTM, and focus on both pairwise and higher-order relation modeling among tagged documents and images. Efficient loopy BP algorithm is developed to learn TTM, which encourages the topic labeling smoothness among tagged documents and images. Extensive experimental results confirm the incorporation of higher-order relations to be effective in enhancing the overall topic modeling performance, when compared with current state-of-the-art topic models, in many text and image mining tasks of broad interests such as word and link prediction, document classification, and tag recommendation.

cs.CV↗