arXiv subjects

Jiaming Cui

Publications and source records attributed to Jiaming Cui.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

TutorTrace: A Dataset and Taxonomy for Classifying Learner Behavioral States during AI-Assisted Programming Education

AI programming tutors provide scalable support, yet lack the behavioral context human tutors rely on to adapt support to learners' needs. We present TutorTrace, a dataset and behavioral abstraction pipeline that makes learners' behavioral context visible and computable in real time from low-level IDE telemetry. Across four deployments in two introductory Python courses (N=480), TutorTrace captures approximately 180K telemetry events, 13,633 behavioral segments, and 27 continuously computed metrics. From this foundation, we derive a taxonomy of learner activity before the first AI query, between consecutive queries, and across the full session, enabling systems to respond not just to what learners say, but to what they have done leading up to the help-seeking moment. In a preliminary classroom evaluation, behavior-aware prompts were associated with a decrease in intervals between queries with no independent work from 50.0% to 20.7%. As an additional demonstration of downstream utility, we evaluate TutorTrace on two held-out prediction tasks: whether a learner will query within the next 60 seconds (AUROC=.726) and whether an upcoming query reflects guided or dependent help-seeking (AUROC=.717). Together, these findings show how behavioral context can enable adaptive AI tutoring at scale.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Beyond Tier Labels: Role- and Deployment-Dependent Model Substitution in Multi-Call LLM Workflows

Large multi-call LLM systems pose a scientific problem that query-level routing does not capture: the value of a model depends on where it enters a dependent computation and on the deployment that surrounds that call. Existing routers typically decide \emph{where} to spend a stronger model while treating the benefit of the substitution itself as known. We separate these two decisions through a predicate-action factorization and evaluate it in controlled solve-merge-verify workflows spanning 8-64 solve calls and four three-tier model ladders. The resulting evidence reveals a consistent principle beneath apparently conflicting outcomes. On numeric frequency counting, all-strong reduces RMSE from 4.818 to 1.538 in the Mixed Qwen/GPT ladder, whereas the average Qwen-only ordering reverses. Input-matched interventions further show that the same medium-to-strong action has sharply different value across roles and scales. A semantic task-and-contract shift reverses the Mixed ordering again, while allocation ablations distinguish useful sparse placement from under-coverage and indiscriminate escalation. Together, these results establish model substitution as a deployment-conditioned action rather than a property implied by a tier label, and they provide a practical sequence for large-scale workflow routing: calibrate the action, resolve its role-conditioned effect, and then optimize its placement.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

QueenBee Planner: Skill-Evolving Communication Topologies for Token-Efficient LLM Multi-Agent Systems

Large language model (LLM) multi-agent systems increasingly depend not only on how individual agents reason, but also on how agents are connected. This paper introduces QueenBee Planner, a framework that treats inter-agent communication topology as a retrievable and self-improving design skill. A pool of worker agents, the task adapter, and the scoring function are frozen; only an outer LLM planner learns to generate temporal communication DAGs specifying who sends information to whom, in which round, who merges messages, and who emits the final answer. Execution traces are distilled into evidence-backed design rules with three actions: \emph{Preserve}, \emph{Modify}, and \emph{Avoid}. To prevent self-evolution from turning lucky runs or plausible but false explanations into policy, QueenBee uses held-out acceptance gates, variance-aware credit, motif-level attribution, transfer trust, insight falsification, and structural deduplication. We evaluate the method on Count-Frequency aggregation and Silo-Bench-style distributed coordination tasks. With fixed workers, self-evolved graph generation produces communication structures that improve over fixed topologies and cold generation. In the CF fulltest setting, the best generated graph reduces RMSE from 12.53 for the strongest fixed topology to 7.87 while also reducing messages, model calls, and token cost; Silo-style results show the same direction of improvement over cold and fixed-topology baselines. These results suggest that multi-agent systems can learn reusable architectural design knowledge rather than merely memorizing task answers.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

CASPIAN: Online Detection and Attribution of Cascade Attacks in LLM Multi-Agent Systems via Cross-Channel Causal Monitoring

Cascade attacks in LLM multi-agent systems (MAS) arise when adversarial influence propagates across agents and leads to escalated system-level failures through complex agent interactions. Detecting such cascades is challenging, as their signals are distributed, tightly coupled across interaction channels, and often appear plausibly benign locally but may unfold quickly either within a single turn or gradually across multiple turns. Existing defenses, being largely local and text-centric, fail to capture such cross-channel, temporally coordinated dynamics of cascade propagation. Therefore, we propose CASPIAN, the first framework that provides a unified, cross-channel causal analysis of cascade behavior in LLM-MAS through online monitoring of dynamic influence propagation across agents. CASPIAN models multi-agent interactions using a unified, dynamic causal influence matrix across channels, estimated efficiently via a late-interaction conditional transfer entropy (LI-CTE) formulation, thereby enabling the detection of cascade onset from emergent system-level structure rather than isolated anomalies. It further performs online causal attribution, identifying the origin, bridge, and amplifier agents driving the cascade and reconstructing its principal propagation pathways, capabilities not supported by existing methods. Across diverse multi-agent frameworks and benchmarks, CASPIAN consistently outperforms semantic guardrails, LLM-based judges, and graph-based anomaly detectors in both detection accuracy and early cascade identification while operating with sub-1% relative overhead latency. These results demonstrate that unified cross-channel causal modeling is essential for reliably detecting and understanding cascade failures in LLM multi-agent systems.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

Modeling the Impact of Exposed Cases in a Hantavirus Outbreak on a Cruise Ship

The emergence of a hantavirus variant aboard a commercial cruise ship presents a significant public health concern. This study develops a discrete-time stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead model to estimate transmission dynamics, hidden exposed infections, and outbreak risk among passengers and crew. Epidemiological parameters and latent disease states were inferred using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter calibrated to reported case data from WHO and ECDC situation reports. The estimated basic reproduction number was 2.76, with a 95\% confidence interval of 2.52-2.99, indicating substantial potential for sustained onboard transmission before strict quarantine measures. Simulations further suggest that several exposed individuals may remain unidentified during the early outbreak phase, creating a hidden reservoir that symptom-based surveillance alone may fail to detect. These findings highlight the importance of rapid surveillance, widespread testing, targeted quarantine, and active monitoring of exposed individuals in confined travel settings. The proposed modeling framework can support timely outbreak assessment and intervention planning for infectious-disease events in similarly dense and spatially constrained populations.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2026

GraphDC: A Divide-and-Conquer Multi-Agent System for Scalable Graph Algorithm Reasoning

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong potential for many mathematical problems. However, their performance on graph algorithmic tasks is still unsatisfying, since graphs are naturally more complex in topology and often require systematic multi-step reasoning, especially on larger graphs. Motivated by this gap, we propose GraphDC, a Divide-and-Conquer multi-agent framework for scalable graph algorithm reasoning. Specifically, inspired by Divide-and-Conquer design, GraphDC decomposes an input graph into smaller subgraphs, assigns each subgraph to a specialized agent for local reasoning, and uses a master agent to integrate the local outputs with inter-subgraph information to produce the final solution. This hierarchical design reduces the reasoning burden on individual agents, alleviates computational bottlenecks, and improves robustness on large graph instances. Extensive experiments show that GraphDC consistently outperforms existing methods on graph algorithm reasoning across diverse tasks and scales, especially on larger instances where direct end-to-end reasoning is less reliable.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Do Agent Societies Develop Intellectual Elites? The Hidden Power Laws of Collective Cognition in LLM Multi-Agent Systems

Large Language Model (LLM) multi-agent systems are increasingly deployed as interacting agent societies, yet scaling these systems often yields diminishing or unstable returns, the causes of which remain poorly understood. We present the first large-scale empirical study of coordination dynamics in LLM-based multi-agent systems, introducing an atomic event-level formulation that reconstructs reasoning as cascades of coordination. Analyzing over 1.5 Million interactions across tasks, topologies, and scales, we uncover three coupled laws: coordination follows heavy-tailed cascades, concentrates via preferential attachment into intellectual elites, and produces increasingly frequent extreme events as system size grows. We show that these effects are coupled through a single structural mechanism: an integration bottleneck, in which coordination expansion scales with system size while consolidation does not, producing large but weakly integrated reasoning processes. To test this mechanism, we introduce Deficit-Triggered Integration (DTI), which selectively increases integration under imbalance. DTI improves performance precisely where coordination fails, without suppressing large-scale reasoning. Together, our results establish quantitative laws of collective cognition and identify coordination structure as a fundamental, previously unmeasured axis for understanding and improving scalable multi-agent intelligence.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

How (Not) to Hybridize Neural and Mechanistic Models for Epidemiological Forecasting

Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction. The mechanistic structure helps keep trajectories epidemiologically plausible, while neural components can capture non-stationary, data-adaptive effects. In practice, however, many seemingly straightforward couplings fail under partial observability and continually shifting transmission dynamics driven by behavior, waning immunity, seasonality, and interventions. We catalog these failure modes and show that robust performance requires making non-stationarity explicit: we extract multi-scale structure from the observed infection series and use it as an interpretable control signal for a controlled neural ODE coupled to an epidemiological model. Concretely, we decompose infections into trend, seasonal, and residual components and use these signals to drive continuous-time latent dynamics while jointly forecasting and inferring time-varying transmission, recovery, and immunity-loss rates. Across early outbreak and multi-wave regimes, our approach attains the lowest RMSE on five datasets (21-63% reduction over the strongest default-configured baseline), achieves the best peak detection accuracy, and infers time-varying epidemiological rates within ground-truth ranges, without relying on auxiliary covariates.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

PhysicsAgentABM: Physics-Guided Generative Agent-Based Modeling

Large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems enable expressive agent reasoning but are expensive to scale and poorly calibrated for timestep-aligned state-transition simulation, while classical agent-based models (ABMs) offer interpretability but struggle to integrate rich individual-level signals and non-stationary behaviors. We propose PhysicsAgentABM, which shifts inference to behaviorally coherent agent clusters: state-specialized symbolic agents encode mechanistic transition priors, a multimodal neural transition model captures temporal and interaction dynamics, and uncertainty-aware epistemic fusion yields calibrated cluster-level transition distributions. Individual agents then stochastically realize transitions under local constraints, decoupling population inference from entity-level variability. We further introduce ANCHOR, an LLM agent-driven clustering strategy based on cross-contextual behavioral responses and a novel contrastive loss, reducing LLM calls by up to 6-8 times. Experiments across public health, finance, and social sciences show consistent gains in event-time accuracy and calibration over mechanistic, neural, and LLM baselines. By re-architecting generative ABM around population-level inference with uncertainty-aware neuro-symbolic fusion, PhysicsAgentABM establishes a new paradigm for scalable and calibrated simulation with LLMs.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

Cross-Modal Purification and Fusion for Small-Object RGB-D Transmission-Line Defect Detection

Transmission line defect detection remains challenging for automated UAV inspection due to the dominance of small-scale defects, complex backgrounds, and illumination variations. Existing RGB-based detectors, despite recent progress, struggle to distinguish geometrically subtle defects from visually similar background structures under limited chromatic contrast. This paper proposes CMAFNet, a Cross-Modal Alignment and Fusion Network that integrates RGB appearance and depth geometry through a principled purify-then-fuse paradigm. CMAFNet consists of a Semantic Recomposition Module that performs dictionary-based feature purification via a learned codebook to suppress modality-specific noise while preserving defect-discriminative information, and a Contextual Semantic Integration Framework that captures global spatial dependencies using partial-channel attention to enhance structural semantic reasoning. Position-wise normalization within the purification stage enforces explicit reconstruction-driven cross-modal alignment, ensuring statistical compatibility between heterogeneous features prior to fusion. Extensive experiments on the TLRGBD benchmark, where 94.5% of instances are small objects, demonstrate that CMAFNet achieves 32.2% mAP@50 and 12.5% APs, outperforming the strongest baseline by 9.8 and 4.0 percentage points, respectively. A lightweight variant reaches 24.8% mAP50 at 228 FPS with only 4.9M parameters, surpassing all YOLO-based detectors while matching transformer-based methods at substantially lower computational cost.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

TinyDef-DETR: A Transformer-Based Framework for Defect Detection in Transmission Lines from UAV Imagery

Automated defect detection from UAV imagery of transmission lines is a challenging task due to the small size, ambiguity, and complex backgrounds of defects. This paper proposes TinyDef-DETR, a DETR-based framework designed to achieve accurate and efficient detection of transmission line defects from UAV-acquired images. The model integrates four major components: an edge-enhanced ResNet backbone to strengthen boundary-sensitive representations, a stride-free space-to-depth module to enable detail-preserving downsampling, a cross-stage dual-domain multi-scale attention mechanism to jointly model global context and local cues, and a Focaler-Wise-SIoU regression loss to improve the localization of small and difficult objects. Together, these designs effectively mitigate the limitations of conventional detectors. Extensive experiments on both public and real-world datasets demonstrate that TinyDef-DETR achieves superior detection performance and strong generalization capability, while maintaining modest computational overhead. The accuracy and efficiency of TinyDef-DETR make it a suitable method for UAV-based transmission line defect detection, particularly in scenarios involving small and ambiguous objects.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

CALYPSO: Forecasting and Analyzing MRSA Infection Patterns with Community and Healthcare Transmission Dynamics

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a critical public health threat within hospitals as well as long-term care facilities. Better understanding of MRSA risks, evaluation of interventions and forecasting MRSA rates are important public health problems. Existing forecasting models rely on statistical or neural network approaches, which lack epidemiological interpretability, and have limited performance. Mechanistic epidemic models are difficult to calibrate and limited in incorporating diverse datasets. We present CALYPSO, a hybrid framework that integrates neural networks with mechanistic metapopulation models to capture the spread dynamics of infectious diseases (i.e., MRSA) across healthcare and community settings. Our model leverages patient-level insurance claims, commuting data, and healthcare transfer patterns to learn region- and time-specific parameters governing MRSA spread. This enables accurate, interpretable forecasts at multiple spatial resolutions (county, healthcare facility, region, state) and supports counterfactual analyses of infection control policies and outbreak risks. We also show that CALYPSO improves statewide forecasting performance by over 4.5% compared to machine learning baselines, while also identifying high-risk regions and cost-effective strategies for allocating infection prevention resources.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Improving Hospital Risk Prediction with Knowledge-Augmented Multimodal EHR Modeling

Accurate prediction of clinical outcomes using Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is critical for early intervention, efficient resource allocation, and improved patient care. EHRs contain multimodal data, including both structured data and unstructured clinical notes that provide rich, context-specific information. In this work, we introduce a unified framework that seamlessly integrates these diverse modalities, leveraging all relevant available information through a two-stage architecture for clinical risk prediction. In the first stage, a fine-tuned Large Language Model (LLM) extracts crucial, task-relevant information from clinical notes, which is enhanced by graph-based retrieval of external domain knowledge from sources such as a medical corpus like PubMed, grounding the LLM's understanding. The second stage combines both unstructured representations and features derived from the structured data to generate the final predictions. This approach supports a wide range of clinical tasks. Here, we demonstrate its effectiveness on 30-day readmission and in-hospital mortality prediction. Experimental results show that our framework achieves strong performance, with AUC scores of $0.84$ and $0.92$, respectively, despite these tasks involving severely imbalanced datasets, with positive rates ranging from approximately $4\%$ to $13\%$. Moreover, it outperforms all existing baselines and clinical practices, including established risk scoring systems. To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first frameworks for healthcare prediction which enhances the power of an LLM-based graph-guided knowledge retrieval method by combining it with structured data for improved clinical outcome prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Accurately Estimating Unreported Infections using Information Theory

One of the most significant challenges in combating against the spread of infectious diseases was the difficulty in estimating the true magnitude of infections. Unreported infections could drive up disease spread, making it very hard to accurately estimate the infectivity of the pathogen, therewith hampering our ability to react effectively. Despite the use of surveillance-based methods such as serological studies, identifying the true magnitude is still challenging. This paper proposes an information theoretic approach for accurately estimating the number of total infections. Our approach is built on top of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) based models, which are commonly used in epidemiology and for estimating such infections. We show how we can help such models to better compute the number of total infections and identify the parametrization by which we need the fewest bits to describe the observed dynamics of reported infections. Our experiments on COVID-19 spread show that our approach leads to not only substantially better estimates of the number of total infections but also better forecasts of infections than standard model calibration based methods. We additionally show how our learned parametrization helps in modeling more accurate what-if scenarios with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our approach provides a general method for improving epidemic modeling which is applicable broadly.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Time-MMD: Multi-Domain Multimodal Dataset for Time Series Analysis

Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. While real-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSA models rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the significance of information beyond numerical series. This oversight is due to the untapped potential of textual series data and the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality multimodal dataset. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce Time-MMD, the first multi-domain, multimodal time series dataset covering 9 primary data domains. Time-MMD ensures fine-grained modality alignment, eliminates data contamination, and provides high usability. Additionally, we develop MM-TSFlib, the first-cut multimodal time-series forecasting (TSF) library, seamlessly pipelining multimodal TSF evaluations based on Time-MMD for in-depth analyses. Extensive experiments conducted on Time-MMD through MM-TSFlib demonstrate significant performance enhancements by extending unimodal TSF to multimodality, evidenced by over 15% mean squared error reduction in general, and up to 40% in domains with rich textual data. More importantly, our datasets and library revolutionize broader applications, impacts, research topics to advance TSA. The dataset is available at https://github.com/AdityaLab/Time-MMD.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

SAGE-ICP: Semantic Information-Assisted ICP

Robust and accurate pose estimation in unknown environments is an essential part of robotic applications. We focus on LiDAR-based point-to-point ICP combined with effective semantic information. This paper proposes a novel semantic information-assisted ICP method named SAGE-ICP, which leverages semantics in odometry. The semantic information for the whole scan is timely and efficiently extracted by a 3D convolution network, and these point-wise labels are deeply involved in every part of the registration, including semantic voxel downsampling, data association, adaptive local map, and dynamic vehicle removal. Unlike previous semantic-aided approaches, the proposed method can improve localization accuracy in large-scale scenes even if the semantic information has certain errors. Experimental evaluations on KITTI and KITTI-360 show that our method outperforms the baseline methods, and improves accuracy while maintaining real-time performance, i.e., runs faster than the sensor frame rate.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2023

DF2: Distribution-Free Decision-Focused Learning

Decision-focused learning (DFL), which differentiates through the KKT conditions, has recently emerged as a powerful approach for predict-then-optimize problems. However, under probabilistic settings, DFL faces three major bottlenecks: model mismatch error, sample average approximation error, and gradient approximation error. Model mismatch error stems from the misalignment between the model's parameterized predictive distribution and the true probability distribution. Sample average approximation error arises when using finite samples to approximate the expected optimization objective. Gradient approximation error occurs when the objectives are non-convex and KKT conditions cannot be directly applied. In this paper, we present DF2, the first distribution-free decision-focused learning method designed to mitigate these three bottlenecks. Rather than depending on a task-specific forecaster that requires precise model assumptions, our method directly learns the expected optimization function during training. To efficiently learn this function in a data-driven manner, we devise an attention-based model architecture inspired by the distribution-based parameterization of the expected objective. We evaluate DF2 on two synthetic problems and three real-world problems, demonstrating the effectiveness of DF2. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Lingkai-Kong/DF2.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Autoregressive Diffusion Model for Graph Generation

Diffusion-based graph generative models have recently obtained promising results for graph generation. However, existing diffusion-based graph generative models are mostly one-shot generative models that apply Gaussian diffusion in the dequantized adjacency matrix space. Such a strategy can suffer from difficulty in model training, slow sampling speed, and incapability of incorporating constraints. We propose an \emph{autoregressive diffusion} model for graph generation. Unlike existing methods, we define a node-absorbing diffusion process that operates directly in the discrete graph space. For forward diffusion, we design a \emph{diffusion ordering network}, which learns a data-dependent node absorbing ordering from graph topology. For reverse generation, we design a \emph{denoising network} that uses the reverse node ordering to efficiently reconstruct the graph by predicting the node type of the new node and its edges with previously denoised nodes at a time. Based on the permutation invariance of graph, we show that the two networks can be jointly trained by optimizing a simple lower bound of data likelihood. Our experiments on six diverse generic graph datasets and two molecule datasets show that our model achieves better or comparable generation performance with previous state-of-the-art, and meanwhile enjoys fast generation speed.

cs.AI↗