arXiv subjects

Jian Lou

Publications and source records attributed to Jian Lou.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

AdaPCLA: Adaptive Prior-Calibrated Logit Adjustment for Long-Tailed Longitudinal EHR Generation

Generative modeling of longitudinal Electronic Health Records is increasingly important for privacy-preserving research, yet standard autoregressive models tend to underrepresent the co-occurrence structure of tail events (i.e., diseases, symptoms), reducing the fidelity and faithfulness of generated data for rare subpopulations. To this end, we propose AdaPCLA framework, which enables generative models to adaptively fit and generate EHR data through a data distribution-aware training strategy; this is achieved by internalizing data knowledge parameters by simulated annealing training. It also supports training-free adaptation to a diverse clinical population for generation through zero-shot distribution control. Moreover, our theoretical analysis characterizes rare-code logit updates through the label-wise empirical NTK and derives a prior-internalization bound for how annealing speed and NTK conditioning affect retained prior signals. Experiments on real-world data show that AdaPCLA achieves consistent gains in tail plausibility, downstream utility, and zero-shot control; in particular, it improves TailPairSeen over HALO by 114.2% on MIMIC-III and 65.1% on MIMIC-IV, outperforms GPT-style generation by 3.5% F1 for zero-shot cross-population adaptation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Signal-Guided Optimization for Machine Unlearning

Current machine unlearning methods predominantly rely on global, coarse-grained intervention strategies. They lack precise pilot signals to guide the unlearning process and fail to provide differentiable guidance across different unlearning tasks. Due to the varying memorization strengths of samples during original training, such a uniform strategy leads to two problems: some samples are over-unlearned, which harms model utility; while others are under-unlearned, leaving residual information that can be exploited by privacy attacks. In this paper, we propose GSUO, a guidance-signal-aware unlearning optimization framework that designs task-specific fine-grained guidance signals to steer the unlearning process and is applicable to both random-subset and class-wise forgetting tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GSUO outperforms 14 baselines in terms of both unlearning effectiveness and generalization, while achieving high efficiency and significant speedups, validating its effectiveness for reliable machine unlearning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Autonomous End-to-End SOH Prediction Services for Battery Systems via Temporal-Contrastive Representation Learning

Accurate state of health (SOH) estimation is a critical diagnostic service for lithium-ion battery management. However, reliance on labor-intensive manual feature engineering and opaque black-box models hinders scalable industrial deployment. To address this, we introduce TC-SOH: a modular, plug-and-play service architecture for autonomous, end-to-end SOH prediction. TC-SOH employs a temporal-contrastive mechanism and a cross-window prediction pretext task to extract degradation-relevant representations directly from raw operational data. To improve transparency, we connect model efficacy with representation diagnostics: visualization, sensitivity analysis, redundancy analysis, bidirectional probing, future-SOH probing, and temporal shuffling show that learned features overlap with selected expert descriptors while retaining additional SOH-relevant variation, and that ordered temporal context improves subsequent-SOH prediction. Across four public datasets, TC-SOH outperforms the considered physics-informed and data-driven baselines, reducing MAPE by 1.91 times and RMSE by 2.13 times.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Activation Steering Induces Emergent Misalignment: A More Comprehensive Evaluation

Activation steering has emerged as a popular inference-time technique for modulating the behavior of large language models (LLMs). By constructing a steering vector from examples of a target behavior and injecting it into intermediate activations during inference, activation steering enables flexible behavioral control while avoiding the permanent parameter updates required by finetuning. Meanwhile, recent work has identified emergent misalignment (EM) as a significant safety concern, wherein models finetuned on unsafe examples from a narrow task may unexpectedly generalize to broadly unsafe behavior on unrelated tasks. Although finetuning-induced EM has been extensively studied, whether activation steering can induce EM remains comparatively under-explored, despite its increasing use as a model-control technique. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of activation-steering-induced emergent misalignment, substantially expanding the evaluation scope beyond existing pioneering work. First, we show that activation steering can induce broad misalignment, even in the recent Qwen-3.5 series. Moreover, activation-steered models produce harmful responses with stronger semantic relevance and higher coherence than their finetuned counterparts, making the resulting misalignment potentially more harmful. Second, we characterize properties of AS-induced EM by analyzing key steering-specific factors, including steering magnitude, the low-rank structure of the steering subspace, and the number of epochs during steering-vector construction. Third, we evaluate the robustness and sensitivity of AS-induced EM across diverse model families, model scales, target tasks, and intervention layers. Our findings reveal activation steering as a significant yet under-examined source of emergent misalignment and provide an activation-space perspective for understanding the mechanisms and safety risks of EM.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Exploiting Verification-Generation Gap: Test-Time Reinforcement Learning with Confidence-Conditioned Verification

Test-time reinforcement learning has emerged as a promising paradigm for enhancing the complex reasoning abilities of large language models in a completely label-free manner. Despite existing studies focusing on Pass@1 performance, optimizing Pass@k remains under-explored yet critical in label-free settings, which measures generation coverage for sustained exploration. Optimizing Pass@k in label-free setting is highly non-trivial, as directly applying the Pass@k advantage designs effective for RLVR yields unsatisfactory performance. Through in-depth empirical analysis, we discover the root causes hindering performance: pseudo-label estimations for low-confidence samples have a high probability of being incorrect, while candidate answers for high-confidence samples suffer from severe diversity collapse. To overcome these hurdles, we propose TTRL-CoCoV (Test-Time Reinforcement Learning with Confidence-Conditioned Verification), a novel confidence-adaptive framework that expands Pass@k coverage and improves Pass@1 performance. Based on our key insight that verification capability generally leads generation capability, TTRL-CoCoV employs a confidence-conditioned mechanism: for high-confidence samples, it bootstraps verifier and applies an exploration-enhancing reward to prevent diversity collapse; for low-confidence samples, it delegates pseudo-label selection to the verifier to filter incorrect pseudo-labels; and for medium-confidence samples, it bypasses verification entirely. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TTRL-CoCoV outperforms the best competing methods across 6 widely-recognized benchmarks, achieves average absolute gains of +9.8% in Pass@1 and +18.7% in Pass@16 over TTRL, and even achieves absolute Pass@1 improvements of up to +5.0% across multiple reasoning benchmarks when compared against fully supervised RL methods. Our code repository: https://github.com/shanjf666/CoCoV.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TSQAgent: Rating Time Series Data Quality via Dedicated Agentic Reasoning

Assessing the quality of time series (TS) data is fundamental yet inherently challenging due to the multifaceted nature of quality dimensions. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for TS quality assessment via pairwise comparison and per-dimension evaluation. However, existing approaches rely on manually predefined quality dimensions and purely text-based reasoning, leaving it unknown whether LLMs can identify truly relevant quality dimensions or perform grounded and quantitative quality comparisons. To investigate this, we construct TSQBench, a dedicated benchmark for evaluating LLMs on two progressive capabilities: (i) understanding and identifying relevant quality dimensions, and (ii) performing quality comparison under specific dimensions. Our analysis reveals that current LLMs consistently struggle with both dimension identification and evidence-grounded quality comparison. To address these limitations, we propose TSQAgent, a novel agentic reasoning framework for TS quality rating consisting of three collaborative roles: Perceiver for focused dimension selection, Inspector for dimension-wise quantitative analysis, and Adjudicator that aggregates and refines the final judgment. In particular, we introduce an agentic reasoning strategy that instills the ability to identify and prioritize the most relevant quality dimensions, and further propose an agent workflow equipped with external analytical tools to enable precise quantitative comparisons over selected dimensions. Experiments on both the proposed benchmark and eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework not only substantially improves LLMs' capabilities in quality understanding and quantitative comparison but also effectively translates these improvements into better quality-aware data selection, leading to enhanced downstream performance and data efficiency.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Feature to Dynamics: Feature-space to Autoregression strategy for Zero-shot Time Series Forecasting

Zero-shot time series forecasting aims to predict future values for previously unseen series, requiring models to generalize temporal dynamics beyond the training distribution. While recent foundation models achieve strong in-domain performance through large-scale pretraining, their effectiveness often relies on broad data coverage and implicit pattern memorization, which can limit generalization when data are scarce or source and target domains are disjoint. In this work, we propose FSA, a feature-to-strategy framework for controlled zero-shot univariate forecasting. Instead of directly modeling raw sequences in the observation space, FSA learns a structured mapping from an interpretable feature space to an autoregressive strategy space. This design introduces explicit inductive biases that disentangle global trends, periodic components, and local temporal dynamics, enabling the model to capture transferable time-series structure with fewer data assumptions. Empirical results show that, under identical pretraining data, training protocol, and comparable parameter budgets, FSA outperforms Transformer-based architectures in our controlled zero-shot setting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Aligned but Fragile: Enhancing LLM Safety Robustness via Zeroth-Order Optimization

Safety alignment for large language models (LLMs) aims to reduce harmful or unsafe behavior while preserving general utility. However, recent findings reveal that alignment effects can be fragile: lightweight post-alignment manipulations, such as parameter noise, activation noise, or quantization, can easily weaken the intended safety behavior. Prior efforts to improve robustness have primarily focused on data curation, modified alignment objectives, and safety-critical parameter identification, leaving the role of the optimizer itself largely unexplored. In this paper, we are the first to study the robustness of safety alignment from the perspective of the base optimizer. This optimizer-centric view naturally points to zeroth-order optimization, which provides a robustness-oriented signal by evaluating safety alignment under perturbations. Based on this insight, we propose a hybrid framework that first performs standard first-order safety alignment and then applies zeroth-order refinement to improve robustness. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that only a few zeroth-order refinement steps can enhance robustness while preserving safety alignment. We further improve the efficiency of zeroth-order refinement by exploiting its inherent perturbation-based evaluations to estimate layer-wise robustness sensitivity, enabling the refinement process to concentrate updates on robustness-critical layers with modest training overhead.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Empowering VLMs for Few-Shot Multimodal Time Series Classification via Tailored Agentic Reasoning

In this paper, we propose the first VL\underline{\textbf{M}} \underline{\textbf{a}}gentic \underline{\textbf{r}}easoning framework for few-\underline{\textbf{s}}hot multimodal \underline{\textbf{T}}ime \underline{\textbf{S}}eries \underline{\textbf{C}}lassification (\textsc{MarsTSC}), which introduces a self-evolving knowledge bank as a dynamic context iteratively refined via reflective agentic reasoning. The framework comprises three collaborative roles: i) Generator conducts reliable classification via reasoning; ii) Reflector diagnoses the root causes of reasoning errors to yield discriminative insights targeting the temporal features overlooked by Generator; iii) Modifier applies verified updates to the knowledge bank to prevent context collapse. We further introduce a test-time update strategy to enable cautious, continuous knowledge bank refinement to mitigate few-shot bias and distribution shift. Extensive experiments across 12 mainstream time series benchmark datasets demonstrate that \method{} delivers substantial and consistent performance gains across 5 VLM backbones, outperforming both classical and foundation model-based time series baselines under few-shot conditions, while producing interpretable rationales that ground each classification decision in human-readable feature evidence. Code is available at https://github.com/HuangJW0821/MarsTSC.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Confidence-Aware Alignment Makes Reasoning LLMs More Reliable

Large reasoning models often reach correct answers through flawed intermediate steps, creating a gap between final accuracy and reasoning reliability. Existing alignment strategies address this with external verifiers or massive sampling, limiting scalability. In this work, we introduce CASPO (Confidence-Aware Step-wise Preference Optimization), a framework that aligns token-level confidence with step-wise logical correctness through iterative Direct Preference Optimization, without training a separate reward model. During inference, we propose Confidence-aware Thought (CaT), which leverages this calibrated confidence to dynamically prune uncertain reasoning branches with negligible O(V) latency. Experiments across ten benchmarks and multiple model families show that CASPO consistently improves reasoning reliability and inference efficiency. CASPO scales to Qwen3-8B-Base and surpasses tree-search baselines on AIME'24 and AIME'25 without using reward-model data. We also release a step-wise dataset with confidence annotations to support fine-grained analysis of reasoning reliability. Code is available at https://github.com/Thecommonirin/CASPO.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Mitigating Many-shot Jailbreak Attacks with One Single Demonstration

Many-shot jailbreaking (MSJ) causes safety-aligned language models to answer harmful queries by preceding them with many harmful question-answer demonstrations. We study why this attack becomes stronger as the number of demonstrations increases. Empirically, we find that MSJ induces a progressive activation drift: the representation of a fixed harmful query moves step by step away from the safety-aligned region as more harmful demonstrations are added. Theoretically, we show that this drift can be interpreted as implicit malicious fine-tuning: conditioning on N harmful demonstrations induces SGD-style updates equivalent to optimizing on the corresponding N harmful samples. This view turns the attack mechanism into a defense principle. We append a fixed one-shot safety demonstration at inference time, which induces a counteracting safety-oriented update and restores refusal behavior. The resulting method improves the model's robustness to MSJ without modifying its parameters or requiring white-box access at deployment. Code is available at https://github.com/Thecommonirin/SafeEnd.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

WaveMoE: A Wavelet-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts Foundation Model for Time Series Forecasting

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved remarkable success in universal forecasting by leveraging large-scale pretraining on diverse time series data. Complementing this progress, incorporating frequency-domain information yields promising performance in enhancing the modeling of complex temporal patterns, such as periodicity and localized high-frequency dynamics, which are prevalent in real-world time series. To advance this direction, we propose a new perspective that integrates explicit frequency-domain representations into scalable foundation models, and introduce WaveMoE, a wavelet-enhanced mixture-of-experts foundation model for time series forecasting. WaveMoE adopts a dual-path architecture that jointly processes time series tokens and wavelet tokens aligned along a unified temporal axis, and coordinates them through a shared expert routing mechanism that enables consistent expert specialization while efficiently scaling model capacity. Preliminary experimental results on 16 diverse benchmark datasets indicate that WaveMoE has the potential to further improve forecasting performance by incorporating wavelet-domain corpora.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MsFormer: Enabling Robust Predictive Maintenance Services for Industrial Devices

Providing reliable predictive maintenance is a critical industrial AI service essential for ensuring the high availability of manufacturing devices. Existing deep-learning methods present competitive results on such tasks but lack a general service-oriented framework to capture complex dependencies in industrial IoT sensor data. While Transformer-based models show strong sequence modeling capabilities, their direct deployment as robust AI services faces significant bottlenecks. Specifically, streaming sensor data collected in real-world service environments often exhibits multi-scale temporal correlations driven by machine working principles. Besides, the datasets available for training time-to-failure predictive services are typically limited in size. These issues pose significant challenges for directly applying existing models as robust predictive services. To address these challenges, we propose MsFormer, a lightweight Multi-scale Transformer designed as a unified AI service model for reliable industrial predictive maintenance. MsFormer incorporates a Multi-scale Sampling (MS) module and a tailored position encoding mechanism to capture sequential correlations across multi-streaming service data. Additionally, to accommodate data-scarce service environments, MsFormer adopts a lightweight attention mechanism with straightforward pooling operations instead of self-attention. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves significant performance improvements over state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, MsFormer outperforms across industrial devices and operating conditions, demonstrating strong generalizability while maintaining a highly reliable Quality of Service (QoS).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Time Series Reasoning via Process-Verifiable Thinking Data Synthesis and Scheduling for Tailored LLM Reasoning

Time series is a pervasive data type across various application domains, rendering the reasonable solving of diverse time series tasks a long-standing goal. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs), especially their reasoning abilities unlocked through reinforcement learning (RL), have opened new opportunities for tackling tasks with long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, leveraging LLM reasoning for time series remains in its infancy, hindered by the absence of carefully curated time series CoT data for training, limited data efficiency caused by underexplored data scheduling, and the lack of RL algorithms tailored for exploiting such time series CoT data. In this paper, we introduce VeriTime, a framework that tailors LLMs for time series reasoning through data synthesis, data scheduling, and RL training. First, we propose a data synthesis pipeline that constructs a TS-text multimodal dataset with process-verifiable annotations. Second, we design a data scheduling mechanism that arranges training samples according to a principled hierarchy of difficulty and task taxonomy. Third, we develop a two-stage reinforcement finetuning featuring fine-grained, multi-objective rewards that leverage verifiable process-level CoT data. Extensive experiments show that VeriTime substantially boosts LLM performance across diverse time series reasoning tasks. Notably, it enables compact 3B, 4B models to achieve reasoning capabilities on par with or exceeding those of larger proprietary LLMs.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Understanding and Preserving Safety in Fine-Tuned LLMs

Fine-tuning is an essential and pervasive functionality for applying large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks. However, it has the potential to substantially degrade safety alignment, e.g., by greatly increasing susceptibility to jailbreak attacks, even when the fine-tuning data is entirely harmless. Despite garnering growing attention in defense efforts during the fine-tuning stage, existing methods struggle with a persistent safety-utility dilemma: emphasizing safety compromises task performance, whereas prioritizing utility typically requires deep fine-tuning that inevitably leads to steep safety declination. In this work, we address this dilemma by shedding new light on the geometric interaction between safety- and utility-oriented gradients in safety-aligned LLMs. Through systematic empirical analysis, we uncover three key insights: (I) safety gradients lie in a low-rank subspace, while utility gradients span a broader high-dimensional space; (II) these subspaces are often negatively correlated, causing directional conflicts during fine-tuning; and (III) the dominant safety direction can be efficiently estimated from a single sample. Building upon these novel insights, we propose safety-preserving fine-tuning (SPF), a lightweight approach that explicitly removes gradient components conflicting with the low-rank safety subspace. Theoretically, we show that SPF guarantees utility convergence while bounding safety drift. Empirically, SPF consistently maintains downstream task performance and recovers nearly all pre-trained safety alignment, even under adversarial fine-tuning scenarios. Furthermore, SPF exhibits robust resistance to both deep fine-tuning and dynamic jailbreak attacks. Together, our findings provide new mechanistic understanding and practical guidance toward always-aligned LLM fine-tuning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Safety at One Shot: Patching Fine-Tuned LLMs with A Single Instance

Fine-tuning safety-aligned large language models (LLMs) can substantially compromise their safety. Previous approaches require many safety samples or calibration sets, which not only incur significant computational overhead during realignment but also lead to noticeable degradation in model utility. Contrary to this belief, we show that safety alignment can be fully recovered with only a single safety example, without sacrificing utility and at minimal cost. Remarkably, this recovery is effective regardless of the number of harmful examples used in fine-tuning or the size of the underlying model, and convergence is achieved within just a few epochs. Furthermore, we uncover the low-rank structure of the safety gradient, which explains why such efficient correction is possible. We validate our findings across five safety-aligned LLMs and multiple datasets, demonstrating the generality of our approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Lightweight Time Series Data Valuation on Time Series Foundation Models via In-Context Finetuning

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated increasing capabilities due to their extensive pretraining on large volumes of diverse time series data. Consequently, the quality of time series data is crucial to TSFM performance, rendering an accurate and efficient data valuation of time series for TSFMs indispensable. However, traditional data valuation methods, such as influence functions, face severe computational bottlenecks due to their poor scalability with growing TSFM model sizes and often fail to preserve temporal dependencies. In this paper, we propose LTSV, a Lightweight Time Series Valuation on TSFMS via in-context finetuning. Grounded in the theoretical evidence that in-context finetuning approximates the influence function, LTSV estimates a sample's contribution by measuring the change in context loss after in-context finetuning, leveraging the strong generalization capabilities of TSFMs to produce robust and transferable data valuations. To capture temporal dependencies, we introduce temporal block aggregation, which integrates per-block influence scores across overlapping time windows. Experiments across multiple time series datasets and models demonstrate that LTSV consistently provides reliable and strong valuation performance, while maintaining manageable computational requirements. Our results suggest that in-context finetuning on time series foundation models provides a practical and effective bridge between data attribution and model generalization in time series learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Token-Level Inference-Time Alignment for Vision-Language Models

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have become essential backbones of modern multimodal intelligence, yet their outputs remain prone to hallucination-plausible text misaligned with visual inputs. Existing alignment approaches often rely on expensive fine-tuning with annotated preference data or sequence-level inference strategies that provide only coarse, delayed feedback. To overcome these limitations, we present TITA (Token-level Inference-Time Alignment), a lightweight framework that freezes the base VLM and instead trains a reward model to approximate its distribution. During inference, implicit preference signals are extracted as log-probability ratios between the reward model and the target VLM, yielding dense autoregressive feedback. This formulation can be viewed as an inference-time variant of Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), providing token-level corrective signals without retraining the backbone. Extensive evaluations on LLaVA-1.5-7B and 13B show consistent gains across 12 benchmarks, with improvements of 8.6% on MMVet and 6.7% on POPE, indicating stronger general understanding and reduced hallucinations. Additional experiments on Qwen2.5-VL-7B and DeepSeek-VL2-27.5B show comparable gains, especially in hallucination reduction and VQA accuracy, while incurring negligible inference overhead.

cs.CV↗