arXiv subjects

Jian-Qiao Zhu

Publications and source records attributed to Jian-Qiao Zhu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

NextMe-800: Anticipating Personal Behavior from Months of Egocentric Video

We often plan ambitiously yet act habitually and wonder, in retrospect, whether we would have planned differently had we known what we would actually do. Hindsight offers a valuable perspective on past decisions, although we often wish we could have simulated hindsight at the moment of choosing. If a system could generate plausible trajectories from one's personal history, such previews might help people formulate more realistic plans and make better informed decisions. We introduce NextMe-800, an approximately 800-hour first-person dataset from one volunteer over 126 days with 1 Hz images, gaze, and audio, captioned at five hierarchical abstraction levels from atomic actions to major activities. We formulate personalized action anticipation as open-vocabulary K-step sequence prediction and construct NextAct, a 1,500-point benchmark combining NextMe-800 with the multi-person EgoLife dataset. Using an embedding-based soft edit distance as the metric, we evaluate how well different models can anticipate personal behavior across abstraction levels and prediction horizons. NextMe-800 and NextAct provide a months-long resource and evaluation framework for studying how far ahead personal behavior can be anticipated from egocentric observation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

CogGym: Towards Large-Scale Comparative Evaluation of Human and Machine Cognition

Understanding and modeling human intelligence are parallel goals shared by artificial intelligence (AI) and cognitive science. As AI systems grow increasingly capable, in what ways do model responses resemble human responses, and where do they systematically diverge? The sheer breadth and diversity of the tasks humans can perform and think about pose a challenge for scalable and rigorous comparison between humans and models. We introduce CogGym, a scalable, unified framework grounded in cognitive science for systematically comparing model and human behavior on matched experimental trials. CogGym uses a semi-automated, human-in-the-loop pipeline to standardize diverse experimental paradigms into a task-agnostic Experiment Markup Language (EML), enabling reproducible and faithful comparison at scale. For initial release, we curate and standardize 258 cognitive experiments from 100 papers that focuses on human commonsense reasoning, and evaluate 50 large language models against human responses. We find a clear scaling trend where larger and more recent AI models better reproduce human judgments. Yet AI models' improvement on such common reasoning tasks is considerably slower than the gains observed on formal-reasoning benchmarks like math and coding, and model--human fit remains well below human splithalf reliability ($R^2 = 0.93$ on text, $0.95$ on image, and $0.92$ on video) with the best models achieving $R^2 = 0.59$ on text, $0.58$ on image, and $0.43$ on video experiments. We intend for CogGym to provide a living evaluation framework that continually incorporates new cognitive science experiments to characterize where model behavior resembles human behavior, where it systematically diverges, and how those patterns change as models and experiments evolve.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Large Language Models provide support for the parallelogram theory of analogy

Four-term word analogies (A:B::C:D) are classically modeled geometrically as parallelograms: adding the vector B-A+C produces D. Recent work suggests that this model poorly captures how humans produce analogies, with simple local-similarity heuristics often providing a better account (Peterson et al., 2020). But does the parallelogram model fail because it is a bad model of analogical relations, or because people are not very good at generating relation-preserving analogies? We compared human and large language model (LLM) analogy completions on the set of problems from Peterson et al. (2020). We find that LLM-generated analogies are reliably judged as better than human-generated ones, and are also more consistent with parallelograms in a distributional embedding space. Crucially, we show that the improvement over human analogies is driven by greater parallelogram alignment and reduced reliance on accessible words rather than enhanced sensitivity to local similarity. Finally, fine-tuning GloVe to better satisfy the parallelogram constraint makes the model's top-ranked candidates more likely to be the completions humans and LLMs actually produced, and improves its prediction of human ratings. Overall, these results provide support for the parallelogram model of word analogies.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Understanding Human-like Solutions in Combinatorial Optimization via Learning and Search

Humans often find good solutions to combinatorial optimization problems that are computationally hard even for advanced computer algorithms. In the Euclidean traveling salesman problems (TSP), people rapidly produce tours that are near-optimal, despite severe limits on time and computation. What makes a tour human-like, and how might such solutions be learned? Here we address these questions through a large-scale behavioral and computational investigation of human performance in Euclidean TSP. We sampled a broad space of TSP instances, collected human solutions, and compared them with neural policies based on Pointer Networks, which are recurrent neural networks with an attention-based pointing mechanism that define probability distributions over valid tours. We trained these networks under multiple objectives, including reinforcement learning (RL), supervised learning from optimal tours, supervised learning from human tours, and RL fine-tuning after optimal-supervised pretraining. Human tours were not identical to optimal tours, but occupied a near-optimal geometric basin: they shared many structural properties with optimal solutions while preserving systematic human-specific deviations. The best account of human tours was not direct imitation of optimal tours, but a model pretrained on optimal tours, fine-tuned by RL, and decoded through $\text{Best-of-}N$ sampling. These findings suggest that human-like solutions may emerge from a combination of structured supervised learning, RL, and test-time search, echoing computational principles underlying many modern artificial intelligence systems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Post-training makes large language models less human-like

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as surrogates for human participants, but it remains unclear which models best capture human behavior and why. To address this, we introduce Psych-201, a novel dataset that enables us to measure behavioral alignment at scale. We find that post-training -- the stage that turns base models into useful assistants -- consistently reduces alignment with human behavior across model families, sizes, and objectives. Moreover, this misalignment widens in newer model generations even as base models continue to improve. Finally, we find that persona-induction -- a popular technique for eliciting human-like behavior by conditioning models on participant-specific information -- does not improve predictions at the level of individuals. Taken together, our results suggest that the very processes that are currently employed to turn LLMs into useful assistants also make them less accurate models of human behavior.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Levels of Analysis for Large Language Models

Modern artificial intelligence systems, such as large language models, are increasingly powerful but also increasingly hard to understand. Recognizing this problem as analogous to the historical difficulties in understanding the human mind, we argue that methods developed in cognitive science can be useful for understanding large language models. We propose a framework for applying these methods based on the levels of analysis that David Marr proposed for studying information processing systems. By revisiting established cognitive science techniques relevant to each level and illustrating their potential to yield insights into the behavior and internal organization of large language models, we aim to provide a toolkit for making sense of these new kinds of minds.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Large Language Models Can Take False First Steps at Inference-time Planning

Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to acquire sequence-level planning abilities during training, yet their planning behavior exhibited at inference time often appears short-sighted and inconsistent with these capabilities. We propose a Bayesian account for this gap by grounding planning behavior in the evolving generative context: given the subtle differences between natural language and the language internalized by LLMs, accumulated self-generated context drives a planning-shift during inference and thereby creates the appearance of compromised planning behavior. We further validate the proposed model through two controlled experiments: a random-generation task demonstrating constrained planning under human prompts and increasing planning strength as self-generated context accumulates, and a Gaussian-sampling task showing reduced initial bias when conditioning on self-generated sequences. These findings provide a theoretical explanation along with empirical evidence for characterizing how LLMs plan ahead during inference.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Using Reinforcement Learning to Train Large Language Models to Explain Human Decisions

A central goal of cognitive modeling is to develop models that not only predict human behavior but also provide insight into the underlying cognitive mechanisms. While neural network models trained on large-scale behavioral data often achieve strong predictive performance, they typically fall short in offering interpretable explanations of the cognitive processes they capture. In this work, we explore the potential of pretrained large language models (LLMs) to serve as dual-purpose cognitive models--capable of both accurate prediction and interpretable explanation in natural language. Specifically, we employ reinforcement learning with outcome-based rewards to guide LLMs toward generating explicit reasoning traces for explaining human risky choices. Our findings demonstrate that this approach produces high-quality explanations alongside strong quantitative predictions of human decisions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Eliciting Trustworthiness Priors of Large Language Models via Economic Games

One critical aspect of building human-centered, trustworthy artificial intelligence (AI) systems is maintaining calibrated trust: appropriate reliance on AI systems outperforms both overtrust (e.g., automation bias) and undertrust (e.g., disuse). A fundamental challenge, however, is how to characterize the level of trust exhibited by an AI system itself. Here, we propose a novel elicitation method based on iterated in-context learning (Zhu and Griffiths, 2024a) and apply it to elicit trustworthiness priors using the Trust Game from behavioral game theory. The Trust Game is particularly well suited for this purpose because it operationalizes trust as voluntary exposure to risk based on beliefs about another agent, rather than self-reported attitudes. Using our method, we elicit trustworthiness priors from several leading large language models (LLMs) and find that GPT-4.1's trustworthiness priors closely track those observed in humans. Building on this result, we further examine how GPT-4.1 responds to different player personas in the Trust Game, providing an initial characterization of how such models differentiate trust across agent characteristics. Finally, we show that variation in elicited trustworthiness can be well predicted by a stereotype-based model grounded in perceived warmth and competence.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Simulated Annealing Enhances Theory-of-Mind Reasoning in Autoregressive Language Models

Autoregressive language models are next-token predictors and have been criticized for only optimizing surface plausibility (i.e., local coherence) rather than maintaining correct latent-state representations (i.e., global coherence). Because Theory of Mind (ToM) tasks crucially depend on reasoning about latent mental states of oneself and others, such models are therefore often thought to fail at ToM. While post-training methods can improve ToM performance, we show that strong ToM capability can be recovered directly from the base model without any additional weight updates or verifications. Our approach builds on recent power-sampling methods (Karan & Du, 2025) that use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to sample from sharpened sequence-level (rather than token-level) probability distributions of autoregressive language models. We further find that incorporating annealing, where the tempered distribution is gradually shifted from high to low temperature, substantially improves ToM performance over fixed-temperature power sampling. Together, these results suggest that sampling-based optimization provides a powerful way to extract latent capabilities from language models without retraining.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

What Should Embeddings Embed? Autoregressive Models Represent Latent Generating Distributions

Autoregressive language models have demonstrated a remarkable ability to extract latent structure from text. The embeddings from large language models have been shown to capture aspects of the syntax and semantics of language. But what should embeddings represent? We connect the autoregressive prediction objective to the idea of constructing predictive sufficient statistics to summarize the information contained in a sequence of observations, and use this connection to identify three settings where the optimal content of embeddings can be identified: independent identically distributed data, where the embedding should capture the sufficient statistics of the data; latent state models, where the embedding should encode the posterior distribution over states given the data; and discrete hypothesis spaces, where the embedding should reflect the posterior distribution over hypotheses given the data. We then conduct empirical probing studies to show that transformers encode these three kinds of latent generating distributions, and that they perform well in out-of-distribution cases and without token memorization in these settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Steering Risk Preferences in Large Language Models by Aligning Behavioral and Neural Representations

Changing the behavior of large language models (LLMs) can be as straightforward as editing the Transformer's residual streams using appropriately constructed "steering vectors." These modifications to internal neural activations, a form of representation engineering, offer an effective and targeted means of influencing model behavior without retraining or fine-tuning the model. But how can such steering vectors be systematically identified? We propose a principled approach for uncovering steering vectors by aligning latent representations elicited through behavioral methods (specifically, Markov chain Monte Carlo with LLMs) with their neural counterparts. To evaluate this approach, we focus on extracting latent risk preferences from LLMs and steering their risk-related outputs using the aligned representations as steering vectors. We show that the resulting steering vectors successfully and reliably modulate LLM outputs in line with the targeted behavior.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Recovering Event Probabilities from Large Language Model Embeddings via Axiomatic Constraints

Rational decision-making under uncertainty requires coherent degrees of belief in events. However, event probabilities generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to exhibit incoherence, violating the axioms of probability theory. This raises the question of whether coherent event probabilities can be recovered from the embeddings used by the models. If so, those derived probabilities could be used as more accurate estimates in events involving uncertainty. To explore this question, we propose enforcing axiomatic constraints, such as the additive rule of probability theory, in the latent space learned by an extended variational autoencoder (VAE) applied to LLM embeddings. This approach enables event probabilities to naturally emerge in the latent space as the VAE learns to both reconstruct the original embeddings and predict the embeddings of semantically related events. We evaluate our method on complementary events (i.e., event A and its complement, event not-A), where the true probabilities of the two events must sum to 1. Experiment results on open-weight language models demonstrate that probabilities recovered from embeddings exhibit greater coherence than those directly reported by the corresponding models and align closely with the true probabilities.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Incoherent Probability Judgments in Large Language Models

Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) trained for next-word prediction have demonstrated remarkable proficiency at producing coherent text. But are they equally adept at forming coherent probability judgments? We use probabilistic identities and repeated judgments to assess the coherence of probability judgments made by LLMs. Our results show that the judgments produced by these models are often incoherent, displaying human-like systematic deviations from the rules of probability theory. Moreover, when prompted to judge the same event, the mean-variance relationship of probability judgments produced by LLMs shows an inverted-U-shaped like that seen in humans. We propose that these deviations from rationality can be explained by linking autoregressive LLMs to implicit Bayesian inference and drawing parallels with the Bayesian Sampler model of human probability judgments.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Language Models Trained to do Arithmetic Predict Human Risky and Intertemporal Choice

The observed similarities in the behavior of humans and Large Language Models (LLMs) have prompted researchers to consider the potential of using LLMs as models of human cognition. However, several significant challenges must be addressed before LLMs can be legitimately regarded as cognitive models. For instance, LLMs are trained on far more data than humans typically encounter, and may have been directly trained on human data in specific cognitive tasks or aligned with human preferences. Consequently, the origins of these behavioral similarities are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a novel way to enhance the utility of LLMs as cognitive models. This approach involves (i) leveraging computationally equivalent tasks that both an LLM and a rational agent need to master for solving a cognitive problem and (ii) examining the specific task distributions required for an LLM to exhibit human-like behaviors. We apply this approach to decision-making -- specifically risky and intertemporal choice -- where the key computationally equivalent task is the arithmetic of expected value calculations. We show that an LLM pretrained on an ecologically valid arithmetic dataset, which we call Arithmetic-GPT, predicts human behavior better than many traditional cognitive models. Pretraining LLMs on ecologically valid arithmetic datasets is sufficient to produce a strong correspondence between these models and human decision-making. Our results also suggest that LLMs used as cognitive models should be carefully investigated via ablation studies of the pretraining data.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Capturing the Complexity of Human Strategic Decision-Making with Machine Learning

Understanding how people behave in strategic settings--where they make decisions based on their expectations about the behavior of others--is a long-standing problem in the behavioral sciences. We conduct the largest study to date of strategic decision-making in the context of initial play in two-player matrix games, analyzing over 90,000 human decisions across more than 2,400 procedurally generated games that span a much wider space than previous datasets. We show that a deep neural network trained on these data predicts people's choices better than leading theories of strategic behavior, indicating that there is systematic variation that is not explained by those theories. We then modify the network to produce a new, interpretable behavioral model, revealing what the original network learned about people: their ability to optimally respond and their capacity to reason about others are dependent on the complexity of individual games. This context-dependence is critical in explaining deviations from the rational Nash equilibrium, response times, and uncertainty in strategic decisions. More broadly, our results demonstrate how machine learning can be applied beyond prediction to further help generate novel explanations of complex human behavior.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Eliciting the Priors of Large Language Models using Iterated In-Context Learning

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world settings, understanding the knowledge they implicitly use when making decisions is critical. One way to capture this knowledge is in the form of Bayesian prior distributions. We develop a prompt-based workflow for eliciting prior distributions from LLMs. Our approach is based on iterated learning, a Markov chain Monte Carlo method in which successive inferences are chained in a way that supports sampling from the prior distribution. We validated our method in settings where iterated learning has previously been used to estimate the priors of human participants -- causal learning, proportion estimation, and predicting everyday quantities. We found that priors elicited from GPT-4 qualitatively align with human priors in these settings. We then used the same method to elicit priors from GPT-4 for a variety of speculative events, such as the timing of the development of superhuman AI.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Recovering Mental Representations from Large Language Models with Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Simulating sampling algorithms with people has proven a useful method for efficiently probing and understanding their mental representations. We propose that the same methods can be used to study the representations of Large Language Models (LLMs). While one can always directly prompt either humans or LLMs to disclose their mental representations introspectively, we show that increased efficiency can be achieved by using LLMs as elements of a sampling algorithm. We explore the extent to which we recover human-like representations when LLMs are interrogated with Direct Sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We found a significant increase in efficiency and performance using adaptive sampling algorithms based on MCMC. We also highlight the potential of our method to yield a more general method of conducting Bayesian inference \textit{with} LLMs.

cs.AI↗