arXiv subjects

Jiancang Zhuang

Publications and source records attributed to Jiancang Zhuang.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

How to quantify earthquake predictability? Advances in earthquake forecasting and predictability limits

Earthquakes resist deterministic prediction, yet their occurrence is not fully random. This paper develops a unified information-theoretic framework to quantify predictability. By reviewing Shannon entropy and the Kullback-Leibler divergence, we formalize predictability as the entropy gap between complete randomness and the true data-generating process and clarify how this absolute notion relates to the relative skill gains used in prospective model evaluation. Within the point-process setting, we derive entropy rates for the Poisson process and for ETAS and identify the intrinsic predictability rate as an information gain functional of the conditional intensity. Using this lens, we summarize what is currently established about earthquake predictability in time, space, and magnitude: temporal and spatial predictability are dominated by clustering and heterogeneous background rates, while magnitude predictability requires separating marginal magnitude statistics (e.g., Gutenberg-Richter and tapered laws) from genuine inter-event dependence encoded by the multivariate magnitude distribution. Finally, we show how incorporating high-dimensional pre-event observations can increase predictability through mutual information, thereby reframing forecasting progress as the extraction of structured dependence between available information and future seismicity. This perspective provides a coherent basis for assessing predictability limits, comparing models, and identifying where additional information and physics that are most likely to yield substantive forecasting improvements.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Forecasting Strong Subsequent Earthquakes in Japan using an improved version of NESTORE Machine Learning Algorithm

The advanced machine learning algorithm NESTORE (Next STrOng Related Earthquake) was developed to forecast strong aftershocks in earthquake sequences and has been successfully tested in Italy, western Slovenia, Greece, and California. NESTORE calculates the probability of aftershocks reaching or exceeding the magnitude of the main earthquake minus one and classifies clusters as type A or B based on a 0.5 probability threshold. In this study, NESTORE was applied to Japan using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency catalog (1973-2024). Due to Japan's high seismic activity and class imbalance, new algorithms were developed to complement NESTORE. The first is a hybrid cluster identification method using ETAS-based stochastic declustering and deterministic graph-based selection. The second, REPENESE (RElevant features, class imbalance PErcentage, NEighbour detection, SElection), is optimized for detecting outliers in skewed class distributions. A new seismicity feature was proposed, showing good results in forecasting cluster classes in Japan. Trained with data from 1973 to 2004 and tested from 2005 to 2023, the method correctly forecasted 75% of A clusters and 96% of B clusters, achieving a precision of 0.75 and an accuracy of 0.94 six hours after the mainshock. It accurately classified the 2011 Tōhoku event cluster. Near-real-time forecasting was applied to the sequence after the April 17, 2024 M6.6 earthquake in Shikoku, classifying it as a "Type B cluster," with validation expected on October 31, 2024.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Revisiting Seismicity Criticality: A New Framework for Bias Correction of Statistical Seismology Model Calibrations

The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we identify three sources of bias, (i) boundary effects, (ii) finite-size effects, and (iii) censorship, which are often overlooked or misinterpreted, causing errors in seismic analysis and predictions. By employing an ETAS model variant with variable spatial background rates, we propose a method to correct for these biases, focusing on the branching ratio n, a key indicator of earthquake triggering potential. Our approach quantifies the variation in the apparent branching ratio (napp) with increased cut-off magnitude (Mco) above the optimal cut-off (Mcobest). The napp(Mco) function yields insights superior to traditional point estimates. We validate our method using synthetic earthquake catalogs, accurately recovering the true branching ratio (ntrue) after correcting biases with napp(Mco). Additionally, our method introduces a refined estimation of the minimum triggering magnitude (m0), a crucial parameter in the ETAS model. Applying our framework to the earthquake catalogs of California, New Zealand, and the China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES) in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces, we find that seismicity hovers away from the critical point, nc = 1, remaining distinctly subcritical, however with values tending to be larger than recent reports that do not consider the above biases. It is interesting that, m0 is found around 4 for California, 3 for New Zealand and 2 for CSES, suggesting that many small triggered earthquakes may not be fertile. Understanding seismicity's critical state significantly enhances our comprehension of seismic patterns, aftershock predictability, and informs earthquake risk mitigation and management strategies.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

Verifying the magnitude dependence in earthquake occurrence

The existence of magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering has been reported. Such a correlation is linked to the issue of seismic predictability and remains under intense debate whether it is physical or is caused by incomplete data due to short-term aftershocks missing. Working firstly with a synthetic catalogue generated by a numerical model that capture most statistical features of earthquakes and then with an high-resolution earthquake catalogue for the Amatrice-Norcia (2016) sequence in Italy, where for the latter case we employ the stochastic declustering method to reconstruct the family tree among seismic events and limit our analysis to events above the magnitude of completeness, we found that the hypothesis of magnitude correlation can be rejected.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

Including stress relaxation in point-process model for seismic occurrence

Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault with the one predicted by probabilistic models for seismic occurrence. Thanks to the optimization of the parameters, by means of a Maximum Likelihood Estimation, it is possible to identify the statistical model which fits better the physical one. The results show that the best statistical model must take into account the non trivial interplay between temporal clustering, related to aftershock occurrence, and the stress discharge following the occurrence of high magnitude mainshocks. The two mechanisms contribute in different ways according to the minimum magnitude considered in the data fitting catalog.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2021

Exact simulation of extrinsic stress-release processes

We present a new and straightforward algorithm that simulates exact sample paths for a generalized stress-release process. The computation of the exact law of the joint interarrival times is detailed and used to derive this algorithm. Furthermore, the martingale generator of the process is derived and induces theoretical moments which generalize some results of Borovkov & Vere-Jones (2000) and are used to demonstrate the validity of our simulation algorithm.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2020

Statistical Simulator for the Engine Knock

This paper proposes a statistical simulator for the engine knock based on the Mixture Density Network (MDN) and the accept-reject method. The proposed simulator can generate the random knock intensity signal corresponding to the input signal. The generated knock intensity has a consistent probability distribution with the real engine. Firstly, the statistical analysis is conducted with the experimental data. From the analysis results, some important assumptions on the statistical properties of the knock intensity are made. Regarding the knock intensity as a random variable on the discrete-time index, it is independent and identically distributed if the input of the engine is identical. The probability distribution of the knock intensity under identical input can be approximated by the Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM). The parameter of the GMM is a function of the input. Based on these assumptions, two sub-problems for establishing the statistical simulator are formulated: One is to approximate the function from input to the parameters of the knock intensity distribution with an absolutely continuous function; The other one is to design a random number generator that outputs the random data consistent with the given distribution. The MDN is applied to approximate the probability density of the knock intensity and the accept-reject algorithm is used for the random number generator design. The proposed method is evaluated in experimental data-based validation.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

Approximate Uncertain Program

Chance constrained program where one seeks to minimize an objective over decisions which satisfy randomly disturbed constraints with a given probability is computationally intractable. This paper proposes an approximate approach to address chance constrained program. Firstly, a single layer neural-network is used to approximate the function from decision domain to violation probability domain. The algorithm for updating parameters in single layer neural-network adopts sequential extreme learning machine. Based on the neural violation probability approximate model, a randomized algorithm is then proposed to approach the optimizer in the probabilistic feasible domain of decision. In the randomized algorithm, samples are extracted from decision domain uniformly at first. Then, violation probabilities of all samples are calculated according to neural violation probability approximate model. The ones with violation probability higher than the required level are discarded. The minimizer in the remained feasible decision samples is used to update sampling policy. The policy converges to the optimal feasible decision. Numerical simulations are implemented to validate the proposed method for non-convex problems comparing with scenario approach and parallel randomized algorithm. The result shows that proposed method have improved performance.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2019

Parallel Randomized Algorithm for Chance Constrained Program

Chance constrained program is computationally intractable due to the existence of chance constraints, which are randomly disturbed and should be satisfied with a probability. This paper proposes a two-layer randomized algorithm to address chance constrained program. Randomized optimization is applied to search the optimizer which satisfies chance constraints in a framework of parallel algorithm. Firstly, multiple decision samples are extracted uniformly in the decision domain without considering the chance constraints. Then, in the second sampling layer, violation probabilities of all the extracted decision samples are checked by extracting the disturbance samples and calculating the corresponding violation probabilities. The decision samples with violation probabilities higher than the required level are discarded. The minimizer of the cost function among the remained feasible decision samples are used to update optimizer iteratively. Numerical simulations are implemented to validate the proposed method for non-convex problems comparing with scenario approach. The proposed method exhibits better robustness in finding probabilistic feasible optimizer.

math.OC↗