arXiv subjects

Jianmin Wang

Publications and source records attributed to Jianmin Wang.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

CompilerDream: Learning a Compiler World Model for General Code Optimization

Effective code optimization in compilers is crucial for computer and software engineering. The success of these optimizations primarily depends on the selection and ordering of the optimization passes applied to the code. While most compilers rely on a fixed sequence of optimization passes, current methods to find the optimal sequence either employ impractically slow search algorithms or learning methods that struggle to generalize to code unseen during training. We introduce CompilerDream, a model-based reinforcement learning approach to general code optimization. CompilerDream comprises a compiler world model that accurately simulates the intrinsic properties of optimization passes and an agent trained on this model to produce effective optimization strategies. By training on a large-scale program dataset, CompilerDream is equipped to serve as a general code optimizer across various application scenarios and source-code languages. Our extensive experiments first highlight CompilerDream's strong optimization capabilities for autotuning, where it leads the CompilerGym leaderboard. More importantly, the zero-shot generalization ability of large-scale trained compiler world model and agent, excels across diverse datasets, surpassing LLVM's built-in optimizations and other state-of-the-art methods in both settings of value prediction and end-to-end code optimization.

cs.PL↗

arXiv2026

PhySense: Sensor Placement Optimization for Accurate Physics Sensing

Physics sensing plays a central role in many scientific and engineering domains, which inherently involves two coupled tasks: reconstructing dense physical fields from sparse observations and optimizing scattered sensor placements to observe maximum information. While deep learning has made rapid advances in sparse-data reconstruction, existing methods generally omit optimization of sensor placements, leaving the mutual enhancement between reconstruction and placement on the shelf. To change this suboptimal practice, we propose PhySense, a synergistic two-stage framework that learns to jointly reconstruct physical fields and to optimize sensor placements, both aiming for accurate physics sensing. The first stage involves a flow-based generative model enhanced by cross-attention to adaptively fuse sparse observations. Leveraging the reconstruction feedback, the second stage performs sensor placement via projected gradient descent to satisfy spatial constraints. We further prove that the learning objectives of the two stages are consistent with classical variance-minimization principles, providing theoretical guarantees. Extensive experiments across three challenging benchmarks, especially a 3D geometry dataset, indicate PhySense achieves state-of-the-art physics sensing accuracy and discovers informative sensor placements previously unconsidered. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/PhySense.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Models

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on continuous-valued time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our models are pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving more flexibility in representation learning than using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with one trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse via TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which achieve unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance. In addition to excellent scalability, Sundial achieves state-of-the-art results on both point and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks with a just-in-time inference speed, i.e., making zero-shot predictions within a few milliseconds. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative forecasting capability can improve model reliability in real-world decision-making. Code is available at: https://github.com/thuml/Sundial.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark

Time series, characterized by a sequence of data points organized in a discrete-time order, are ubiquitous in real-world scenarios. Unlike other data modalities, time series present unique challenges in learning and modeling due to their intricate and dynamic nature, including the entanglement of nonlinear patterns and time-variant trends. Recent years have witnessed remarkable breakthroughs in time series analysis, with techniques shifting from traditional statistical methods to contemporary deep learning models. In this paper, we delve into the design of deep time series models across various analysis tasks and review the existing literature from two perspectives: basic modules and model architectures. Further, we develop and release Time Series Library (TSLib) as a fair benchmark of deep time series models for diverse analysis tasks. TSLib implements 41 prominent models, including both small- and large-scale time series models, covers 30 datasets from different domains, and supports 5 prevalent analysis tasks. Based on TSLib, we evaluate 16 popular deep time series models and 6 advanced time series foundation models. Empirical findings indicate that models with specific structures are apt only at distinct analytical tasks, providing insights for research and adoption of deep time series models. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/thuml/Time-Series-Library.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Exploring Accuracy Law for Deep Time Series Forecasters: An Empirical Study

Deep time series forecasting has emerged as a rapidly growing field in recent years. Despite the exponential growth of community interests, progress on standard benchmarks is often limited to marginal improvements. A common consensus of the community is that time series forecasting inherently faces a non-zero error lower bound due to its partially observable and uncertain nature. However, a fundamental question arises: how to estimate the performance upper bound of deep time series forecasters? We delve into univariate time series forecasting, a prevalent forecasting paradigm spanning traditional statistical models to advanced time series foundation models. Going beyond classical series-wise predictability metrics, we realize that the forecasting performance is highly related to window-wise properties due to the sequence-to-sequence forecasting paradigm of deep time series models and introduce a quantitative measurement of window-wise pattern complexity. Through rigorous statistical analyses over more than 4700 newly trained deep forecasting models, we discover a consistent empirical relationship between the minimum attainable forecasting error of deep models and the complexity of window-wise series patterns, which is termed the accuracy law. We further demonstrate that this empirical finding successfully guides us to identify saturated tasks from widely used benchmarks and derive an effective training strategy for time series foundation models, offering valuable insights for future research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Monte Carlo PDE Solvers for Nonlinear Radiative Boundary Conditions

Monte Carlo PDE solvers have become increasingly popular for solving heat-related partial differential equations in geometry processing and computer graphics due to their robustness in handling complex geometries. While existing methods can handle Dirichlet, Neumann, and linear Robin boundary conditions, nonlinear boundary conditions arising from thermal radiation remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce a Picard-style fixed-point iteration framework that enables Monte Carlo PDE solvers to handle nonlinear radiative boundary conditions. While strict theoretical convergence is not generally guaranteed, our method remains stable and empirically convergent with a properly chosen relaxation coefficient. Even with imprecise initial boundary estimates, it progressively approaches the correct solution. Compared to standard linearization strategies, the proposed approach achieves significantly higher accuracy. To further address the high variance inherent in Monte Carlo estimators, we propose a heteroscedastic regression-based denoising technique specifically designed for on-boundary solution estimates, filling a gap left by prior variance reduction methods that focus solely on interior points. We validate our approach through extensive evaluations on synthetic benchmarks and demonstrate its effectiveness on practical heat radiation simulations with complex geometries.

cs.GR↗

arXiv2026

Timer-S1: A Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Model with Serial Scaling

We introduce Timer-S1, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) time series foundation model with 8.3B total parameters, 0.75B activated parameters for each token, and a context length of 11.5K. To overcome the scalability bottleneck in existing pre-trained time series foundation models, we perform Serial Scaling in three dimensions: model architecture, dataset, and training pipeline. Timer-S1 integrates sparse TimeMoE blocks and generic TimeSTP blocks for Serial-Token Prediction (STP), a generic training objective that adheres to the serial nature of forecasting. The proposed paradigm introduces serial computations to improve long-term predictions while avoiding costly rolling-style inference and pronounced error accumulation in the standard next-token prediction. Pursuing a high-quality and unbiased training dataset, we curate TimeBench, a corpus with one trillion time points, and apply meticulous data augmentation to mitigate predictive bias. We further pioneer a post-training stage, including continued pre-training and long-context extension, to enhance short-term and long-context performance. Evaluated on the large-scale GIFT-Eval leaderboard, Timer-S1 achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, attaining the best MASE and CRPS scores as a pre-trained model. Timer-S1 is released to facilitate further research.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Retrieval-Augmented Generation with Covariate Time Series

While RAG has greatly enhanced LLMs, extending this paradigm to Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) remains a challenge. This is exemplified in the Predictive Maintenance of the Pressure Regulating and Shut-Off Valve (PRSOV), a high-stakes industrial scenario characterized by (1) data scarcity, (2) short transient sequences, and (3) covariate coupled dynamics. Unfortunately, existing time-series RAG approaches predominantly rely on generated static vector embeddings and learnable context augmenters, which may fail to distinguish similar regimes in such scarce, transient, and covariate coupled scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose RAG4CTS, a regime-aware, training-free RAG framework for Covariate Time-Series. Specifically, we construct a hierarchal time-series native knowledge base to enable lossless storage and physics-informed retrieval of raw historical regimes. We design a two-stage bi-weighted retrieval mechanism that aligns historical trends through point-wise and multivariate similarities. For context augmentation, we introduce an agent-driven strategy to dynamically optimize context in a self-supervised manner. Extensive experiments on PRSOV demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in prediction accuracy. The proposed system is deployed in Apache IoTDB within China Southern Airlines. Since deployment, our method has successfully identified one PRSOV fault in two months with zero false alarm.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Aura: Universal Multi-dimensional Exogenous Integration for Aviation Time Series

Time series forecasting has witnessed an increasing demand across diverse industrial applications, where accurate predictions are pivotal for informed decision-making. Beyond numerical time series data, reliable forecasting in practical scenarios requires integrating diverse exogenous factors. Such exogenous information is often multi-dimensional or even multimodal, introducing heterogeneous interactions that unimodal time series models struggle to capture. In this paper, we delve into an aviation maintenance scenario and identify three distinct types of exogenous factors that influence temporal dynamics through distinct interaction modes. Based on this empirical insight, we propose Aura, a universal framework that explicitly organizes and encodes heterogeneous external information according to its interaction mode with the target time series. Specifically, Aura utilizes a tailored tripartite encoding mechanism to embed heterogeneous features into well-established time series models, ensuring seamless integration of non-sequential context. Extensive experiments on a large-scale, three-year industrial dataset from China Southern Airlines, covering the Boeing 777 and Airbus A320 fleets, demonstrate that Aura consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across all baselines and exhibits superior adaptability. Our findings highlight Aura's potential as a general-purpose enhancement for aviation safety and reliability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Regression Models Meet Foundation Models: A Hybrid-AI Approach to Practical Electricity Price Forecasting

Electricity market prices exhibit extreme volatility, nonlinearity, and non-stationarity, making accurate forecasting a significant challenge. While cutting-edge time series foundation models (TSFMs) effectively capture temporal dependencies, they typically underutilize cross-variate correlations and non-periodic patterns that are essential for price forecasting. Conversely, regression models excel at capturing feature interactions but are limited to future-available inputs, ignoring crucial historical drivers that are unavailable at forecast time. To bridge this gap, we propose FutureBoosting, a novel paradigm that enhances regression-based forecasts by integrating forecasted features generated from a frozen TSFM. This approach leverages the TSFM's ability to model historical patterns and injects these insights as enriched inputs into a downstream regression model. We instantiate this paradigm into a lightweight, plug-and-play framework for electricity price forecasting. Extensive evaluations on real-world electricity market data demonstrate that our framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and regression baselines, achieving reductions in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of more than 30% at most. Through ablation studies and explainable AI (XAI) techniques, we validate the contribution of forecasted features and elucidate the model's decision-making process. FutureBoosting establishes a robust, interpretable, and effective solution for practical market participation, offering a general framework for enhancing regression models with temporal context.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Boosting AI Reliability with an FSM-Driven Streaming Inference Pipeline: An Industrial Case

The widespread adoption of AI in industry is often hampered by its limited robustness when faced with scenarios absent from training data, leading to prediction bias and vulnerabilities. To address this, we propose a novel streaming inference pipeline that enhances data-driven models by explicitly incorporating prior knowledge. This paper presents the work on an industrial AI application that automatically counts excavator workloads from surveillance videos. Our approach integrates an object detection model with a Finite State Machine (FSM), which encodes knowledge of operational scenarios to guide and correct the AI's predictions on streaming data. In experiments on a real-world dataset of over 7,000 images from 12 site videos, encompassing more than 300 excavator workloads, our method demonstrates superior performance and greater robustness compared to the original solution based on manual heuristic rules. We will release the code at https://github.com/thulab/video-streamling-inference-pipeline.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Thoth: Mid-Training Bridges LLMs to Time Series Understanding

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success in general-purpose reasoning. However, they still struggle to understand and reason about time series data, which limits their effectiveness in decision-making scenarios that depend on temporal dynamics. In this paper, we propose Thoth, the first family of mid-trained LLMs with general-purpose time series understanding capabilities. As a pivotal intermediate stage, mid-training achieves task- and domain-agnostic alignment between time series and natural language, for which we construct Book-of-Thoth, a high-quality, time-series-centric mid-training corpus. Book-of-Thoth enables both time-series-to-text and text-to-time-series generation, equipping LLMs with a foundational grasp of temporal patterns. To better evaluate advanced reasoning capabilities, we further present KnoTS, a novel benchmark of knowledge-intensive time series understanding, designed for joint reasoning over temporal patterns and domain knowledge. Extensive experiments demonstrate that mid-training with Book-of-Thoth enables Thoth to significantly outperform its base model and advanced LLMs across a range of time series question answering benchmarks. Moreover, Thoth exhibits superior capabilities when fine-tuned under data scarcity, underscoring the effectiveness of mid-training for time series understanding. Code is available at: https://github.com/thuml/Thoth.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Adapt Data to Model: Adaptive Transformation Optimization for Domain-shared Time Series Foundation Models

Large time series models (LTMs) have emerged as powerful tools for universal forecasting, yet they often struggle with the inherent diversity and nonstationarity of real-world time series data, leading to an unsatisfactory trade-off between forecasting accuracy and generalization. Rather than continually finetuning new LTM instances for each domain, we propose a data-centric framework, time-series adaptive transformation optimization (TATO), that enables a single frozen pre-trained LTM to adapt to diverse downstream domains through an optimally configured transformation pipeline. Specifically, TATO constructs three representative types of transformations, including context slicing, scale normalization, and outlier correction, to help LTMs better align with target domain characteristics. To ensure robustness, we incorporate carefully selected time series augmentations and a two-stage ranking mechanism that filters out pipelines underperforming on specific metrics. Extensive experiments on state-of-the-art LTMs and widely used datasets demonstrate that TATO consistently and significantly improves domain-adaptive forecasting performance, achieving a maximum reduction in MSE of 65.4\% and an average reduction of 13.6\%. Moreover, TATO is highly efficient, typically completing optimization in under 2 minutes, making it practical for real-world deployment. The source code is available at https://github.com/thulab/TATO.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Loss-insensitive quantum noise reduction in a Raman amplifier with coherent feedback

A quantum amplifier usually adds extra noise inevitably through coupling to internal degrees of freedom while amplifying the signal. The introduction of quantum correlations can effectively suppress this extra noise. In this work, we utilize the established quantum correlation between the Stokes field and atomic spin waves in the Raman amplification process to feedback a portion of the Stokes field into the amplifier. This leads to a reduction in quantum noise that is independent of the feedback loss at high gain. A maximum of 6 dB noise reduction is observed. The single-path feedback amplifier is found to be sensitive to the feedback phase, a property that expands its potential for applications in quantum precision measurement, and the general concept can be extended to integrated optics and fiber optic systems.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2026

DualWeaver: Synergistic Feature Weaving Surrogates for Multivariate Forecasting with Univariate Time Series Foundation Models

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have achieved strong univariate forecasting through large-scale pre-training, yet effectively extending this success to multivariate forecasting remains challenging. To address this, we propose DualWeaver, a novel framework that adapts univariate TSFMs (Uni-TSFMs) for multivariate forecasting by using a pair of learnable, structurally symmetric surrogate series. Generated by a shared auxiliary feature-fusion module that captures cross-variable dependencies, these surrogates are mapped to TSFM-compatible series via the forecasting objective. The symmetric structure enables parameter-free reconstruction of final predictions directly from the surrogates, without additional parametric decoding. A theoretically grounded regularization term is further introduced to enhance robustness against adaptation collapse. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets show that DualWeaver outperforms state-of-the-art multivariate forecasters in both accuracy and stability. We release the code at https://github.com/li-jinpeng/DualWeaver.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Composite spectrum of Little Red Dot from a standard inner disk and an unstable outer disk

James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has revealed a new class of high-redshift, very red, compact broad-line sources, termed as "little red dots" (LRDs). The physical mechanism driving these properties remains elusive. We construct spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with spectroscopic redshift for 28 LRDs and find they exhibit V-shaped SEDs with a common break frequency of $ν_{\rm b}\simeq10^{14.96\pm0.06}$ Hz. We propose that the unique SEDs can be well explained by the combination of an inner standard disk and an outer gravitationally unstable accretion disk with Toomre parameter $Q\sim1$, where the outer disk has a temperature of $\sim2000-4000 K$ and mainly radiates in near-infrared to optical wavebands. The composite spectrum from this model naturally explains the V-shaped continuum and reproduces intrinsically luminous infrared-optical emission without requiring extreme dust extinction or unusual stellar populations. Even considering possible dense gas around the disk to account for pronounced Balmer breaks in some LRDs, the intrinsic optical-UV emission is only suppressed by factors of $\lesssim2-3$, which suggests that most LRDs are sub-Eddington and intrinsically weak. These results provide new insights into early-phase black hole growth and galaxy evolution.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Observation of quantum noise reduction in a Raman amplifier via quantum correlation between atom and light

Any amplifier requires coupling to its internal degrees of freedom for energy gain. This coupling introduces extra quantum noise to the output. On the other hand, if the internal degree of the amplifier can be accessed and manipulated, we can manage and even reduce the quantum noise of the amplifier's output. In this paper, we present an experiment to reduce the quantum noise of a Raman amplifier by preparing the atomic medium in a correlated state with the Stokes light field. We report an observation of quantum noise reduction of more than 3.5 dB in the atomic Raman amplification process. From another perspective, the Raman amplifier at high gain in turn serves as a measurement tool for the quantum correlation between the atom and light. Furthermore, such a scheme, when viewed as a whole, also forms a quantum-entangled atom-light hybrid interferometer that can lead to quantum-enhanced sensors.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Off-Centered WoS-Type Solvers with Statistical Weighting

Stochastic PDE solvers have emerged as a powerful alternative to traditional discretization-based methods for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), especially in geometry processing and graphics. While off-centered estimators enhance sample reuse in WoS-type Monte Carlo solvers, they introduce correlation artifacts and bias when Green's functions are approximated. In this paper, we propose a statistically weighted off-centered WoS-type estimator that leverages local similarity filtering to selectively combine samples across neighboring evaluation points. Our method balances bias and variance through a principled weighting strategy that suppresses unreliable estimators. We demonstrate our approach's effectiveness on various PDEs,including screened Poisson equations and boundary conditions, achieving consistent improvements over existing solvers such as vanilla Walk on Spheres, mean value caching, and boundary value caching. Our method also naturally extends to gradient field estimation and mixed boundary problems.

cs.GR↗