arXiv subjects

Jianqing Fan

Publications and source records attributed to Jianqing Fan.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

A provable two-stage algorithm for penalized hazards regression

From an optimizer's perspective, achieving the global optimum for a general nonconvex problem is often provably NP-hard using the classical worst-case analysis. In the case of Cox's proportional hazards model, by taking its statistical model structures into account, we identify local strong convexity near the global optimum, motivated by which we propose to use two convex programs to optimize the folded-concave penalized Cox's proportional hazards regression. Theoretically, we investigate the statistical and computational tradeoffs of the proposed algorithm and establish the strong oracle property of the resulting estimators. Numerical studies and real data analysis lend further support to our algorithm and theory.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Bridging Convex and Nonconvex Optimization in Robust PCA: Noise, Outliers, and Missing Data

This paper delivers improved theoretical guarantees for the convex programming approach in low-rank matrix estimation, in the presence of (1) random noise, (2) gross sparse outliers, and (3) missing data. This problem, often dubbed as robust principal component analysis (robust PCA), finds applications in various domains. Despite the wide applicability of convex relaxation, the available statistical support (particularly the stability analysis vis-à-vis random noise) remains highly suboptimal, which we strengthen in this paper. When the unknown matrix is well-conditioned, incoherent, and of constant rank, we demonstrate that a principled convex program achieves near-optimal statistical accuracy, in terms of both the Euclidean loss and the $\ell_{\infty}$ loss. All of this happens even when nearly a constant fraction of observations are corrupted by outliers with arbitrary magnitudes. The key analysis idea lies in bridging the convex program in use and an auxiliary nonconvex optimization algorithm, and hence the title of this paper.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Optimal estimation of functionals of high-dimensional mean and covariance matrix

Motivated by portfolio allocation and linear discriminant analysis, we consider estimating a functional $\mathbfμ^T \mathbfΣ^{-1} \mathbfμ$ involving both the mean vector $\mathbfμ$ and covariance matrix $\mathbfΣ$. We study the minimax estimation of the functional in the high-dimensional setting where $\mathbfΣ^{-1} \mathbfμ$ is sparse. Akin to past works on functional estimation, we show that the optimal rate for estimating the functional undergoes a phase transition between regular parametric rate and some form of high-dimensional estimation rate. We further show that the optimal rate is attained by a carefully designed plug-in estimator based on de-biasing, while a family of naive plug-in estimators are proved to fall short. We further generalize the estimation problem and techniques that allow robust inputs of mean and covariance matrix estimators. Extensive numerical experiments lend further supports to our theoretical results.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

The Interplay of Demographic Variables and Social Distancing Scores in Deep Prediction of U.S. COVID-19 Cases

With the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak, we characterize the nature of the growth trajectories of counties in the United States using a novel combination of spectral clustering and the correlation matrix. As the U.S. and the rest of the world are experiencing a severe second wave of infections, the importance of assigning growth membership to counties and understanding the determinants of the growth are increasingly evident. Subsequently, we select the demographic features that are most statistically significant in distinguishing the communities. Lastly, we effectively predict the future growth of a given county with an LSTM using three social distancing scores. This comprehensive study captures the nature of counties' growth in cases at a very micro-level using growth communities, demographic factors, and social distancing performance to help government agencies utilize known information to make appropriate decisions regarding which potential counties to target resources and funding to.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Asymptotic Theory of Eigenvectors for Random Matrices with Diverging Spikes

Characterizing the asymptotic distributions of eigenvectors for large random matrices poses important challenges yet can provide useful insights into a range of statistical applications. To this end, in this paper we introduce a general framework of asymptotic theory of eigenvectors (ATE) for large spiked random matrices with diverging spikes and heterogeneous variances, and establish the asymptotic properties of the spiked eigenvectors and eigenvalues for the scenario of the generalized Wigner matrix noise. Under some mild regularity conditions, we provide the asymptotic expansions for the spiked eigenvalues and show that they are asymptotically normal after some normalization. For the spiked eigenvectors, we establish asymptotic expansions for the general linear combination and further show that it is asymptotically normal after some normalization, where the weight vector can be arbitrary. We also provide a more general asymptotic theory for the spiked eigenvectors using the bilinear form. Simulation studies verify the validity of our new theoretical results. Our family of models encompasses many popularly used ones such as the stochastic block models with or without overlapping communities for network analysis and the topic models for text analysis, and our general theory can be exploited for statistical inference in these large-scale applications.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Recent Developments on Factor Models and its Applications in Econometric Learning

This paper makes a selective survey on the recent development of the factor model and its application on statistical learnings. We focus on the perspective of the low-rank structure of factor models, and particularly draws attentions to estimating the model from the low-rank recovery point of view. The survey mainly consists of three parts: the first part is a review on new factor estimations based on modern techniques on recovering low-rank structures of high-dimensional models. The second part discusses statistical inferences of several factor-augmented models and applications in econometric learning models. The final part summarizes new developments dealing with unbalanced panels from the matrix completion perspective.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2020

Bootstrapping $\ell_p$-Statistics in High Dimensions

This paper considers a new bootstrap procedure to estimate the distribution of high-dimensional $\ell_p$-statistics, i.e. the $\ell_p$-norms of the sum of $n$ independent $d$-dimensional random vectors with $d \gg n$ and $p \in [1, \infty]$. We provide a non-asymptotic characterization of the sampling distribution of $\ell_p$-statistics based on Gaussian approximation and show that the bootstrap procedure is consistent in the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance under mild conditions on the covariance structure of the data. As an application of the general theory we propose a bootstrap hypothesis test for simultaneous inference on high-dimensional mean vectors. We establish its asymptotic correctness and consistency under high-dimensional alternatives, and discuss the power of the test as well as the size of associated confidence sets. We illustrate the bootstrap and testing procedure numerically on simulated data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Community Network Auto-Regression for High-Dimensional Time Series

Modeling responses on the nodes of a large-scale network is an important task that arises commonly in practice. This paper proposes a community network vector autoregressive (CNAR) model, which utilizes the network structure to characterize the dependence and intra-community homogeneity of the high dimensional time series. The CNAR model greatly increases the flexibility and generality of the network vector autoregressive (Zhu et al, 2017, NAR) model by allowing heterogeneous network effects across different network communities. In addition, the non-community-related latent factors are included to account for unknown cross-sectional dependence. The number of network communities can diverge as the network expands, which leads to estimating a diverging number of model parameters. We obtain a set of stationary conditions and develop an efficient two-step weighted least-squares estimator. The consistency and asymptotic normality properties of the estimators are established. The theoretical results show that the two-step estimator improves the one-step estimator by an order of magnitude when the error admits a factor structure. The advantages of the CNAR model are further illustrated on a variety of synthetic and real datasets.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Learning Latent Factors from Diversified Projections and its Applications to Over-Estimated and Weak Factors

Estimations and applications of factor models often rely on the crucial condition that the number of latent factors is consistently estimated, which in turn also requires that factors be relatively strong, data are stationary and weak serial dependence, and the sample size be fairly large, although in practical applications, one or several of these conditions may fail. In these cases it is difficult to analyze the eigenvectors of the data matrix. To address this issue, we propose simple estimators of the latent factors using cross-sectional projections of the panel data, by weighted averages with pre-determined weights. These weights are chosen to diversify away the idiosyncratic components, resulting in "diversified factors". Because the projections are conducted cross-sectionally, they are robust to serial conditions, easy to analyze and work even for finite length of time series. We formally prove that this procedure is robust to over-estimating the number of factors, and illustrate it in several applications, including post-selection inference, big data forecasts, large covariance estimation and factor specification tests. We also recommend several choices for the diversified weights.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

A Theoretical Analysis of Deep Q-Learning

Despite the great empirical success of deep reinforcement learning, its theoretical foundation is less well understood. In this work, we make the first attempt to theoretically understand the deep Q-network (DQN) algorithm (Mnih et al., 2015) from both algorithmic and statistical perspectives. In specific, we focus on a slight simplification of DQN that fully captures its key features. Under mild assumptions, we establish the algorithmic and statistical rates of convergence for the action-value functions of the iterative policy sequence obtained by DQN. In particular, the statistical error characterizes the bias and variance that arise from approximating the action-value function using deep neural network, while the algorithmic error converges to zero at a geometric rate. As a byproduct, our analysis provides justifications for the techniques of experience replay and target network, which are crucial to the empirical success of DQN. Furthermore, as a simple extension of DQN, we propose the Minimax-DQN algorithm for zero-sum Markov game with two players. Borrowing the analysis of DQN, we also quantify the difference between the policies obtained by Minimax-DQN and the Nash equilibrium of the Markov game in terms of both the algorithmic and statistical rates of convergence.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Asymmetry Helps: Eigenvalue and Eigenvector Analyses of Asymmetrically Perturbed Low-Rank Matrices

This paper is concerned with the interplay between statistical asymmetry and spectral methods. Suppose we are interested in estimating a rank-1 and symmetric matrix $\mathbf{M}^{\star}\in \mathbb{R}^{n\times n}$, yet only a randomly perturbed version $\mathbf{M}$ is observed. The noise matrix $\mathbf{M}-\mathbf{M}^{\star}$ is composed of zero-mean independent (but not necessarily homoscedastic) entries and is, therefore, not symmetric in general. This might arise, for example, when we have two independent samples for each entry of $\mathbf{M}^{\star}$ and arrange them into an {\em asymmetric} data matrix $\mathbf{M}$. The aim is to estimate the leading eigenvalue and eigenvector of $\mathbf{M}^{\star}$. We demonstrate that the leading eigenvalue of the data matrix $\mathbf{M}$ can be $O(\sqrt{n})$ times more accurate --- up to some log factor --- than its (unadjusted) leading singular value in eigenvalue estimation. Further, the perturbation of any linear form of the leading eigenvector of $\mathbf{M}$ --- say, entrywise eigenvector perturbation --- is provably well-controlled. This eigen-decomposition approach is fully adaptive to heteroscedasticity of noise without the need of careful bias correction or any prior knowledge about the noise variance. We also provide partial theory for the more general rank-$r$ case. The takeaway message is this: arranging the data samples in an asymmetric manner and performing eigen-decomposition could sometimes be beneficial.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Hypothesis testing for eigenspaces of covariance matrix

Eigenspaces of covariance matrices play an important role in statistical machine learning, arising in variety of modern algorithms. Quantitatively, it is convenient to describe the eigenspaces in terms of spectral projectors. This work focuses on hypothesis testing for the spectral projectors, both in one- and two-sample scenario. We present new tests, based on a specific matrix norm developed in order to utilize the structure of the spectral projectors. A new resampling technique of independent interest is introduced and analyzed: it serves as an alternative to the well-known multiplier bootstrap, significantly reducing computational complexity of bootstrap-based methods. We provide theoretical guarantees for the type-I error of our procedures, which remarkably improve the previously obtained results in the field. Moreover, we analyze power of our tests. Numerical experiments illustrate good performance of the proposed methods compared to previously developed ones.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Testability of high-dimensional linear models with non-sparse structures

Understanding statistical inference under possibly non-sparse high-dimensional models has gained much interest recently. For a given component of the regression coefficient, we show that the difficulty of the problem depends on the sparsity of the corresponding row of the precision matrix of the covariates, not the sparsity of the regression coefficients. We develop new concepts of uniform and essentially uniform non-testability that allow the study of limitations of tests across a broad set of alternatives. Uniform non-testability identifies a collection of alternatives such that the power of any test, against any alternative in the group, is asymptotically at most equal to the nominal size. Implications of the new constructions include new minimax testability results that, in sharp contrast to the current results, do not depend on the sparsity of the regression parameters. We identify new tradeoffs between testability and feature correlation. In particular, we show that, in models with weak feature correlations, minimax lower bound can be attained by a test whose power has the $\sqrt{n}$ rate, regardless of the size of the model sparsity.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Inference and Uncertainty Quantification for Noisy Matrix Completion

Noisy matrix completion aims at estimating a low-rank matrix given only partial and corrupted entries. Despite substantial progress in designing efficient estimation algorithms, it remains largely unclear how to assess the uncertainty of the obtained estimates and how to perform statistical inference on the unknown matrix (e.g.~constructing a valid and short confidence interval for an unseen entry). This paper takes a step towards inference and uncertainty quantification for noisy matrix completion. We develop a simple procedure to compensate for the bias of the widely used convex and nonconvex estimators. The resulting de-biased estimators admit nearly precise non-asymptotic distributional characterizations, which in turn enable optimal construction of confidence intervals\,/\,regions for, say, the missing entries and the low-rank factors. Our inferential procedures do not rely on sample splitting, thus avoiding unnecessary loss of data efficiency. As a byproduct, we obtain a sharp characterization of the estimation accuracy of our de-biased estimators, which, to the best of our knowledge, are the first tractable algorithms that provably achieve full statistical efficiency (including the preconstant). The analysis herein is built upon the intimate link between convex and nonconvex optimization --- an appealing feature recently discovered by \cite{chen2019noisy}.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Noisy Matrix Completion: Understanding Statistical Guarantees for Convex Relaxation via Nonconvex Optimization

This paper studies noisy low-rank matrix completion: given partial and noisy entries of a large low-rank matrix, the goal is to estimate the underlying matrix faithfully and efficiently. Arguably one of the most popular paradigms to tackle this problem is convex relaxation, which achieves remarkable efficacy in practice. However, the theoretical support of this approach is still far from optimal in the noisy setting, falling short of explaining its empirical success. We make progress towards demystifying the practical efficacy of convex relaxation vis-à-vis random noise. When the rank and the condition number of the unknown matrix are bounded by a constant, we demonstrate that the convex programming approach achieves near-optimal estimation errors --- in terms of the Euclidean loss, the entrywise loss, and the spectral norm loss --- for a wide range of noise levels. All of this is enabled by bridging convex relaxation with the nonconvex Burer-Monteiro approach, a seemingly distinct algorithmic paradigm that is provably robust against noise. More specifically, we show that an approximate critical point of the nonconvex formulation serves as an extremely tight approximation of the convex solution, thus allowing us to transfer the desired statistical guarantees of the nonconvex approach to its convex counterpart.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Estimating Number of Factors by Adjusted Eigenvalues Thresholding

Determining the number of common factors is an important and practical topic in high dimensional factor models. The existing literatures are mainly based on the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix. Due to the incomparability of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix caused by heterogeneous scales of observed variables, it is very difficult to give an accurate relationship between these eigenvalues and the number of common factors. To overcome this limitation, we appeal to the correlation matrix and show surprisingly that the number of eigenvalues greater than $1$ of population correlation matrix is the same as the number of common factors under some mild conditions. To utilize such a relationship, we study the random matrix theory based on the sample correlation matrix in order to correct the biases in estimating the top eigenvalues and to take into account of estimation errors in eigenvalue estimation. This leads us to propose adjusted correlation thresholding (ACT) for determining the number of common factors in high dimensional factor models, taking into account the sampling variabilities and biases of top sample eigenvalues. We also establish the optimality of the proposed methods in terms of minimal signal strength and optimal threshold. Simulation studies lend further support to our proposed method and show that our estimator outperforms other competing methods in most of our testing cases.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Adaptive Huber Regression on Markov-dependent Data

High-dimensional linear regression has been intensively studied in the community of statistics in the last two decades. For the convenience of theoretical analyses, classical methods usually assume independent observations and sub-Gaussian-tailed errors. However, neither of them hold in many real high-dimensional time-series data. Recently [Sun, Zhou, Fan, 2019, J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., in press] proposed Adaptive Huber Regression (AHR) to address the issue of heavy-tailed errors. They discover that the robustification parameter of the Huber loss should adapt to the sample size, the dimensionality, and the moments of the heavy-tailed errors. We progress in a vertical direction and justify AHR on dependent observations. Specifically, we consider an important dependence structure -- Markov dependence. Our results show that the Markov dependence impacts on the adaption of the robustification parameter and the estimation of regression coefficients in the way that the sample size should be discounted by a factor depending on the spectral gap of the underlying Markov chain.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Entrywise Eigenvector Analysis of Random Matrices with Low Expected Rank

Recovering low-rank structures via eigenvector perturbation analysis is a common problem in statistical machine learning, such as in factor analysis, community detection, ranking, matrix completion, among others. While a large variety of bounds are available for average errors between empirical and population statistics of eigenvectors, few results are tight for entrywise analyses, which are critical for a number of problems such as community detection. This paper investigates entrywise behaviors of eigenvectors for a large class of random matrices whose expectations are low-rank, which helps settle the conjecture in Abbe et al. (2014b) that the spectral algorithm achieves exact recovery in the stochastic block model without any trimming or cleaning steps. The key is a first-order approximation of eigenvectors under the $\ell_\infty$ norm: $$u_k \approx \frac{A u_k^*}{λ_k^*},$$ where $\{u_k\}$ and $\{u_k^*\}$ are eigenvectors of a random matrix $A$ and its expectation $\mathbb{E} A$, respectively. The fact that the approximation is both tight and linear in $A$ facilitates sharp comparisons between $u_k$ and $u_k^*$. In particular, it allows for comparing the signs of $u_k$ and $u_k^*$ even if $\| u_k - u_k^*\|_{\infty}$ is large. The results are further extended to perturbations of eigenspaces, yielding new $\ell_\infty$-type bounds for synchronization ($\mathbb{Z}_2$-spiked Wigner model) and noisy matrix completion.

math.ST↗