arXiv subjects

Jiawei Shan

Publications and source records attributed to Jiawei Shan.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Proximal Mediation Analysis with Unmeasured Treatment-Induced Confounding

Mediation analysis provides a central framework for elucidating causal mechanisms, yet its application is often impeded by treatment-induced confounding, under which the widely used natural mediation effects are generally unidentifiable. Interventional effects have been proposed as an alternative when these confounders are observable; however, identifying and estimating interventional effects remains challenging when confounders are unmeasured. In this paper, we address this issue by using observed variables as proxies for unmeasured treatment-induced confounders. We establish four proximal identification results and develop a multiply robust, semiparametric locally efficient estimator that accommodates flexible machine learning methods for nuisance parameter estimation. The proposed approach is illustrated through simulation studies and a real-data application evaluating racial disparities in life satisfaction mediated by discrimination.

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arXiv2026

Beyond Exchangeability: Distribution-Shift-Aware Integration of External Control Data in Randomized Trials

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating causal effects but are often costly and difficult to scale; consequently, they are frequently augmented with auxiliary external controls in many applications. Prior approaches for borrowing such data typically rely on exchangeability, under which the external controls are readily usable for inference in the trial population. In practice, however, differences in eligibility criteria, standard of care, and data collection procedures may induce distribution shifts between the RCT and the external controls, rendering exchangeability implausible. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for integrating external controls by explicitly modeling these distribution shifts. We construct augmented estimators by adapting trial-only efficient influence functions through calibration equations that balance the trial and external populations, thereby fully exploiting the external control data even when exchangeability fails. We further develop an adaptive shrinkage estimator that preserves consistency while guaranteeing efficiency dominance over the trial-only benchmark. Synthetic experiments and a real data application demonstrate the practical advantages of the proposed approaches.

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arXiv2025

SADA: Safe and Adaptive Aggregation of Multiple Black-Box Predictions in Semi-Supervised Learning

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) arises in practice when labeled data are scarce or expensive to obtain, while large quantities of unlabeled data are readily available. With the growing adoption of machine learning techniques, it has become increasingly feasible to generate multiple predicted labels using a variety of models and algorithms, including deep learning, large language models, and generative AI. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that safely and adaptively aggregates multiple black-box predictions of uncertain quality for both inference and prediction tasks. Our method provides two key guarantees: (i) it never performs worse than using the labeled data alone, regardless of the quality of the predictions; and (ii) if any one of the predictions (without knowing which one) perfectly fits the ground truth, the algorithm adaptively exploits this to achieve either a faster convergence rate or the semiparametric efficiency bound. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm through small-scale simulations and two real-data analyses with distinct scientific goals. A user-friendly R package, sada, is provided to facilitate practical implementation.

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arXiv2025

Efficient estimation of average treatment effects with unmeasured confounding and proxies

Proximal causal inference provides a framework for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging outcome and treatment proxies. Identification in this framework relies on the existence of a so-called bridge function. Standard approaches typically postulate a parametric specification for the bridge function, which is estimated in a first step and then plugged into an ATE estimator. However, this sequential procedure suffers from two potential sources of efficiency loss: (i) the difficulty of efficiently estimating a bridge function defined by an integral equation, and (ii) the failure to account for the correlation between the estimation steps. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel approach that approximates the integral equation with increasing moment restrictions and jointly estimates the bridge function and the ATE. We show that, under suitable conditions, our estimator is efficient. Additionally, we provide a data-driven procedure for selecting the tuning parameter (i.e., the number of moment restrictions). Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method performs well in finite samples, and an application to the right heart catheterization dataset from the SUPPORT study demonstrates its practical value.

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arXiv2024

Nonparametric Estimation of Path-specific Effects in Presence of Nonignorable Missing Covariates

The path-specific effect (PSE) is of primary interest in mediation analysis when multiple intermediate variables between treatment and outcome are observed, as it can isolate the specific effect through each mediator, thus mitigating potential bias arising from other intermediate variables serving as mediator-outcome confounders. However, estimation and inference of PSE become challenging in the presence of nonignorable missing covariates, a situation particularly common in epidemiological research involving sensitive patient information. In this paper, we propose a fully nonparametric methodology to address this challenge. We establish identification for PSE by expressing it as a functional of observed data and demonstrate that the associated nuisance functions can be uniquely determined through sequential optimization problems by leveraging a shadow variable. Then we propose a sieve-based regression imputation approach for estimation. We establish the large-sample theory for the proposed estimator, and introduce a robust and efficient approach to make inference for PSE. The proposed method is applied to the NHANES dataset to investigate the mediation roles of dyslipidemia and obesity in the pathway from Type 2 diabetes mellitus to cardiovascular disease.

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arXiv2024

Efficient Nonparametric Inference for Mediation Analysis with Nonignorable Missing Confounders

Mediation analysis is widely used for exploring treatment mechanisms; however, it faces challenges when nonignorable missing confounders are present. Efficient inference of mediation effects and the efficiency loss due to nonignorable missingness have been rarely studied in the literature because of the difficulties arising from the ill-posed inverse problem. In this paper, we propose a general shadow variable framework for identifying mediation effects, allowing shadow variables to be selected from either observed covariates or externally collected auxiliary data. We then propose a Sieve-based Iterative Outward (SIO) approach for estimation. We establish large-sample theory, particularly asymptotic normality, for the proposed estimator despite the ill-posedness of the problem. We show that our estimator is locally efficient and attains the semiparametric efficiency bound under certain conditions. Building on the efficient influence function, we explicitly quantify the efficiency loss attributable to missingness and propose a debiased machine learning approach for estimation and inference. We examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed approach using extensive simulation studies and showcase its practical applicability through an empirical analysis of CFPS data.

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arXiv2023

Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effect on the Treated under Endogenous Treatment Assignment

In this paper, we consider estimation of average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), an interpretable and relevant causal estimand to policy makers when treatment assignment is endogenous. By considering shadow variables that are unrelated to the treatment assignment but related to the outcomes of interest, we establish identification of the ATT. Then we focus on efficient estimation of the ATT by characterizing the geometric structure of the likelihood, deriving the semiparametric efficiency bound for ATT estimation and proposing an estimator that can achieve this bound. We rigorously establish the theoretical results of the proposed estimator. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is studied through comprehensive simulation studies as well as an application to our motivating study.

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