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Jiayi Lai

Publications and source records attributed to Jiayi Lai.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Physically Consistent SINDy (Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics) for Microgrid Identification and Real-Time Frequency Control

This paper proposes PC-SINDYc, a novel framework for the identification and frequency control of microgrids (MGs) with distributed energy resources. By leveraging physics-guided library construction, total least squares regression, and random sample consensus, the regression algorithm of PC-SINDYc robustly identifies the true frequency dynamics of MGs from phasor measurement unit (PMU) data, considering noise, delays, and constraint activations. Based on the identified model, the PC-SINDYc framework further incorporates a model predictive controller (MPC) for real-time frequency control. We prove that, under mild conditions, PC-SINDYc ensures asymptotic stability of the MG. Simulations on 4-bus and 13-bus MGs demonstrate that PC-SINDYc effectively controls MG's frequency across various disturbances unseen during the offline identification, outperforming PI controllers, conventional SINDYc, and state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods.

eess.SY

Exascale Hybrid Numerical-AI Ensembles for Operational Flood-Season Forecasting in East Asia: 15-km Decadal Hindcasts and 1-km High-Resolution Capability

Seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in East Asia remains a grand challenge, as predictability at 3 to 6 month lead times is constrained by the spring predictability barrier, weak large-scale signals, and localized nonlinear convective extremes. We address this challenge with CAPES, which integrates a kilometer-resolution coupled regional model with atmosphere, land, and ocean components and a data-driven AI seasonal forecasting system. At 15 km resolution, the fused workflow combines 174 numerical members from varying start times, physics schemes, and parameter perturbations with 1,600 AI members generated from initial and physical perturbations. Using the full LineShine system, CAPES completes ten annual 1,774-member hindcasts for 2016 to 2025 within 14.6 hours, improving the mean prediction score from ECMWF's 71.8 to 75.9 and delivering a major gain in operational forecasting capability. The 1-km configuration further enables fine-scale typhoon simulation and establishes the feasibility of kilometer-scale fused ensemble forecasting on a one-week timescale.

cs.CE