arXiv subjects

Jiayi Tong

Publications and source records attributed to Jiayi Tong.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Authentic Multinational Federated Time-to-Event Analyses Among People with HIV in Latin America

Multinational HIV cohort studies face regulatory barriers to cross-border sharing of individual participant data, limiting centralized pooled analyses. Federated statistical methods, which exchange only aggregated information, offer a privacy-preserving alternative but have rarely been examined in real-world distributed environments for HIV research. Here, we evaluate the feasibility and analytical performance of a communication-efficient federated framework within the Caribbean, Central, and South America Network for HIV epidemiology. Virologic failure and major regimen change after antiretroviral therapy initiation were analyzed as separate outcomes; for each, we estimated cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) and fit stratified cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models via a surrogate likelihood-based federated implementation. Each site imputed missing data, conducted local analysis, and shared only summary statistics according to a coordinated computation protocol. The federated approach exactly reproduced centralized CIFs and closely approximated centralized Cox regression estimates, outperforming conventional meta-analysis for both outcomes. These findings demonstrate that authentic federated analysis is feasible for multinational HIV research and can yield results closely aligned with centralized analysis while preserving data privacy. Post-hoc feedback from local analysts, however, indicated that broader adoption will require managing the logistical and coordination overhead and ensuring harmonized data collection and quality control across sites.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Federated Learning with Incomplete Data: When to Use Complete Cases and When to Weight

Privacy constraints have driven the rise of federated learning (FL), which enables multi-site analyses without sharing individual participant data. Existing FL estimators largely assume complete data, whereas multi-site studies often face missingness. We develop a framework for FL with missing data, identifying conditions under which the complete case (CC) estimator is preferred over the inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator. For settings where the CC estimator leads to bias, we introduce a calibrated weight estimation approach that combines candidate weighting models across sites and remains consistent if at least one is correctly specified at each site; we further show that pooling many weighting candidate models with redundant information degrades the calibrated estimator, so a small set is preferable. Consistency conditions are stated at the site level, ensuring that the federated estimator inherits validity from site-level properties. We prove consistency and derive a sandwich variance estimator that accounts for uncertainty in the outcome model, and in both the estimated weighting models and the calibration step. Additionally, we show that all estimators require only one or a few communication rounds, making them practical under real-world data-governance constraints. We illustrate the framework by evaluating risk factors for 90-day mortality among patients with pleural infections treated with intrapleural enzyme therapy.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

PDA in Action: Ten Principles for High-Quality Multi-Site Clinical Evidence Generation

Background: Distributed Research Networks (DRNs) offer significant opportunities for collaborative multi-site research and have significantly advanced healthcare research based on clinical observational data. However, generating high-quality real-world evidence using fit-for-use data from multi-site studies faces important challenges, including biases associated with various types of heterogeneity within and across sites and data sharing difficulties. Over the last ten years, Privacy-Preserving Distributed Algorithms (PDA) have been developed and utilized in numerous national and international real-world studies spanning diverse domains, from comparative effectiveness research, target trial emulation, to healthcare delivery, policy evaluation, and system performance assessment. Despite these advances, there remains a lack of comprehensive and clear guiding principles for generating high-quality real-world evidence through collaborative studies leveraging the methods under PDA. Objective: The paper aims to establish ten principles of best practice for conducting high-quality multi-site studies using PDA. These principles cover all phases of research, including study preparation, protocol development, analysis, and final reporting. Discussion: The ten principles for conducting a PDA study outline a principled, efficient, and transparent framework for employing distributed learning algorithms within DRNs to generate reliable and reproducible real-world evidence.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Empowering Clinical Trial Design through AI: A Randomized Evaluation of PowerGPT

Sample size calculations for power analysis are critical for clinical research and trial design, yet their complexity and reliance on statistical expertise create barriers for many researchers. We introduce PowerGPT, an AI-powered system integrating large language models (LLMs) with statistical engines to automate test selection and sample size estimation in trial design. In a randomized trial to evaluate its effectiveness, PowerGPT significantly improved task completion rates (99.3% vs. 88.9% for test selection, 99.3% vs. 77.8% for sample size calculation) and accuracy (94.1% vs. 55.4% in sample size estimation, p < 0.001), while reducing average completion time (4.0 vs. 9.3 minutes, p < 0.001). These gains were consistent across various statistical tests and benefited both statisticians and non-statisticians as well as bridging expertise gaps. Already under deployment across multiple institutions, PowerGPT represents a scalable AI-driven approach that enhances accessibility, efficiency, and accuracy in statistical power analysis for clinical research.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Enabling Inclusive Systematic Reviews: Incorporating Preprint Articles with Large Language Model-Driven Evaluations

Background. Systematic reviews in comparative effectiveness research require timely evidence synthesis. Preprints accelerate knowledge dissemination but vary in quality, posing challenges for systematic reviews. Methods. We propose AutoConfidence (automated confidence assessment), an advanced framework for predicting preprint publication, which reduces reliance on manual curation and expands the range of predictors, including three key advancements: (1) automated data extraction using natural language processing techniques, (2) semantic embeddings of titles and abstracts, and (3) large language model (LLM)-driven evaluation scores. Additionally, we employed two prediction models: a random forest classifier for binary outcome and a survival cure model that predicts both binary outcome and publication risk over time. Results. The random forest classifier achieved AUROC 0.692 with LLM-driven scores, improving to 0.733 with semantic embeddings and 0.747 with article usage metrics. The survival cure model reached AUROC 0.716 with LLM-driven scores, improving to 0.731 with semantic embeddings. For publication risk prediction, it achieved a concordance index of 0.658, increasing to 0.667 with semantic embeddings. Conclusion. Our study advances the framework for preprint publication prediction through automated data extraction and multiple feature integration. By combining semantic embeddings with LLM-driven evaluations, AutoConfidence enhances predictive performance while reducing manual annotation burden. The framework has the potential to facilitate incorporation of preprint articles during the appraisal phase of systematic reviews, supporting researchers in more effective utilization of preprint resources.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

OrigamiPlot: An R Package and Shiny Web App Enhanced Visualizations for Multivariate Data

We introduce OrigamiPlot, an open-source R package and Shiny web application designed to enhance the visualization of multivariate data. This package implements the origami plot, a novel visualization technique proposed by Duan et al. in 2023, which improves upon traditional radar charts by ensuring that the area of the connected region is invariant to the ordering of attributes, addressing a key limitation of radar charts. The software facilitates multivariate decision-making by supporting comparisons across multiple objects and attributes, offering customizable features such as auxiliary axes and weighted attributes for enhanced clarity. Through the R package and user-friendly Shiny interface, researchers can efficiently create and customize plots without requiring extensive programming knowledge. Demonstrated using network meta-analysis as a real-world example, OrigamiPlot proves to be a versatile tool for visualizing multivariate data across various fields. This package opens new opportunities for simplifying decision-making processes with complex data.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2022

Federated Learning Algorithms for Generalized Mixed-effects Model (GLMM) on Horizontally Partitioned Data from Distributed Sources

Objectives: This paper develops two algorithms to achieve federated generalized linear mixed effect models (GLMM), and compares the developed model's outcomes with each other, as well as that from the standard R package (`lme4'). Methods: The log-likelihood function of GLMM is approximated by two numerical methods (Laplace approximation and Gaussian Hermite approximation), which supports federated decomposition of GLMM to bring computation to data. Results: Our developed method can handle GLMM to accommodate hierarchical data with multiple non-independent levels of observations in a federated setting. The experiment results demonstrate comparable (Laplace) and superior (Gaussian-Hermite) performances with simulated and real-world data. Conclusion: We developed and compared federated GLMMs with different approximations, which can support researchers in analyzing biomedical data to accommodate mixed effects and address non-independence due to hierarchical structures (i.e., institutes, region, country, etc.).

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Testing for publication bias in meta-analysis under Copas selection model

In meta-analyses, publication bias is a well-known, important and challenging issue because the validity of the results from a meta-analysis is threatened if the sample of studies retrieved for review is biased. One popular method to deal with publication bias is the Copas selection model, which provides a flexible sensitivity analysis for correcting the estimates with considerable insight into the data suppression mechanism. However, rigorous testing procedures under the Copas selection model to detect bias are lacking. To fill this gap, we develop a score-based test for detecting publication bias under the Copas selection model. We reveal that the behavior of the standard score test statistic is irregular because the parameters of the Copas selection model disappear under the null hypothesis, leading to an identifiability problem. We propose a novel test statistic and derive its limiting distribution. A bootstrap procedure is provided to obtain the p-value of the test for practical applications. We conduct extensive Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed test and apply the method to several existing meta-analyses.

stat.ME↗