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Jie Ding

Publications and source records attributed to Jie Ding.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Adaptive Probe Design for Auditing AI Agents

How can we audit an AI agent before it is safe and practical to deploy? A central task is to estimate its performance under the intended deployment policy (the target policy). However, historical observations may provide insufficient coverage of relevant states and actions, limiting evaluation reliability. We propose CAD (Flow-Constrained Audit Design), a framework that combines historical logs with a limited budget of targeted audit trials (probes). The key idea is to design probes that minimize the mismatch between the combined state-action visitation distribution (occupancy) of the logs and probes and that of the target policy. We formulate this design as a constrained convex optimization problem, directing probes toward regions important to the target policy but underrepresented in historical logs. We develop an adaptive algorithm that iteratively estimates environment dynamics and occupancies to update the probe policy. We link occupancy mismatch to bounds on mean squared error and asymptotic variance, and establish error bounds for CAD's adaptive estimator in finite and continuous state spaces. Experiments in Gridworld, LunarLander, and autonomous driving using real-world logs from the Waymo Open Motion Dataset show improved estimation accuracy over alternative data collection and probe designs.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2026

Trustworthy Method Comparison with AI Judges: Estimation and Design under Order, Batch, and Aggregation Effects

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as judges for automated AI evaluation. A common practice is to randomize prompt sequences and average the resulting scores, but its statistical validity remains unclear. We show that LLM evaluation mechanisms can be approximated by a class of Markov generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), supported by out-of-sample predictions across three major commercial LLMs. Using a first-order Markov GLMM, we study leaderboard ranking and group comparison. For leaderboard ranking, randomize-and-average selection is consistent under a mild separation condition, and a Williams square design can improve efficiency when item qualities are close. For group comparison, naive averaging can yield inconsistent conclusions about differences in group-level quality because of the response model's nonlinearity. Empirical results further support the validity of the proposed model-based inference beyond the first-order theory, including settings with higher-order sequence memory. We illustrate the approach in an application where AI judges compare two graphical model estimation methods.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

An Uncertainty-Guided Digital Twin Framework for Online Adaptive Proton Therapy in Head and Neck Cancer: A Feasibility Study

Objective: Head and neck (HN) proton therapy spans six to seven weeks of anatomical change, while offline replanning takes about a week. We present an uncertainty-guided digital twin (UGDT) framework that forecasts treatment-day anatomy before treatment and evaluate whether it generates online adaptive proton therapy (APT) plans of clinical quality. Approach: A library of 302 longitudinal deformations from 88 previously treated HN patients was transported onto each new patient's treatment planning CT (TPCT) using two-step multi-atlas deformable image registration (DIR) built on a pretrained CT foundation model, generating about 284 predicted CTs (pdCTs) with contours per patient. Dispersion of propagated clinical target volume (CTV) contours defined a patient-specific robust margin. In ten patients, the quality assurance CT (QACT) triggering a replan represented treatment-day anatomy, and the physician-approved replan was the baseline. The pdCT most similar to the QACT (pdCT-H) and one from the lowest quartile (pdCT-L) were planned to within about 5% of baseline plan quality, forward-calculated on the QACT, and reoptimized to generate online APT plans. Main results: pdCT plans scored within -0.7% (pdCT-H) and -1.0% (pdCT-L) of baseline. Forward calculation on QACT reduced high-dose CTV D98% to 88.3% and 85.5%. After online reoptimization, D98% recovered to 98.3 +/- 0.3% and 98.2 +/- 0.3%, versus 98.5 +/- 0.4% at baseline. Spinal cord and brainstem doses remained below tolerance, and plan quality scores were within -1.1% (p = 0.19) and -1.7% (p = 0.01) of baseline. Significance: UGDT generated online APT plans comparable in quality to physician-approved offline replans using anatomy forecast before treatment, enabling a transition from reactive offline replanning toward anticipatory online adaptation.

physics.med-ph↗
arXiv2026

A digital-twin framework for forecasting treatment-day imaging with contour uncertainty in adaptive proton radiotherapy

Head-and-neck anatomy changes over a six-to-seven-week proton course, and the anatomy of a later week cannot be imaged when the plan is made. We present a digital-twin framework that forecasts a patient's treatment-day anatomy as an ensemble of predicted CTs with propagated contours and quantifies the uncertainty of the forecast contours. The twin is a library of previously treated patients with planning and weekly quality-assurance CTs (QACTs), made patient-specific by a two-step foundation-model deformable registration: a cross-patient field carries each library patient onto the current patient, and a longitudinal field, estimated in the current patient's frame, carries that patient's planning-to-QACT change onto the current patient's own planning CT. A library of 302 observations from 88 patients yields about 300 replicates per patient, each a deformation that occurred in a treated patient. The dispersion of the propagated contours, resolved by outward normal, is six-direction contour uncertainty in millimeters. This is uncertainty in the input to the forecast, which library patient the current patient follows, rather than in model parameters, and it is unchanged when the registration engine is exchanged. On ten patients with clinician contours on two QACTs, the library alone fixes the anisotropic shape of the uncertainty (4.5 to 6.2 mm); the first QACT narrows it by a factor of 3.2 to 3.6 without a contour being drawn; an approved contour improves the center but not the width. The estimate orders directions correctly but is not Gaussian-calibrated. A clinical target volume expansion is worked out as one application.

physics.med-ph↗
arXiv2026

APEx: Distillation of Agent Procedural Experience for Adaptive Deep Research Question Answering

Deep research agents augment large language models with external tools to answer complex, long-horizon questions through multi-turn reasoning. Learning from prior experience is crucial for continual improvement, yet existing methods either retrieve verbose task-specific traces that burden decision-making, or distill procedural skills that remain decoupled from downstream policy adaptation. We propose APEx, a hierarchical experience utilization framework that organizes interaction history into instance-level trajectory memories and category-level procedural skills, and couples them through a closed-loop architecture of Executor, Distiller, and Planner. The three modules are optimized via a three-stage alternating GRPO training paradigm, enabling reward-guided skill distillation rather than fixed-prompt generation. At test time, distilled skills serve as procedural priors for online Planner adaptation through skill-guided test-time reinforcement learning, allowing ground-truth-free self-improvement with skill-alignment regularization to prevent policy drift. Experiments on 7 benchmarks demonstrate that APEx achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing GPT-5.4 by 14.7 points and the strongest memory-augmented baseline by 3.0 points.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Nonuniformity Principle in Human-AI Coworking

As generative AI is increasingly applied to automate multi-step and high-stake workflows, human judgment and involvement remain essential for ensuring the quality of AI-generated outputs. In practice, while it is desirable for human experts to provide oversight on AI regularly, often by reviewing intermediate outputs, giving feedback, making corrections, and steering subsequent steps, such oversight is constrained by the time and resources that humans can afford. This creates a tension between the need for human oversight and AI's efficiency in delivering more output with less intervention. An important but underexplored question, then, is how to optimally engage humans in human-AI coworking. This work was originally motivated by our empirical observation that in long AI workflows, human oversight often improves user satisfaction while reducing unnecessary rework and token consumption. From there, we formulate the problem of where to place oversight stages in human-AI coworking. Under reasonable assumptions, we then develop the nonuniformity principle, which states that the optimal schedule places oversight stages with non-decreasing gaps along the workflow. We empirically validate this principle in two common AI agent workflows: writing literature reviews and constructing websites.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Scalable Dexterous Robot Learning with AR-based Remote Human-Robot Interactions

This paper focuses on the scalable robot learning for manipulation in the dexterous robot arm-hand systems, where the remote human-robot interactions via augmented reality (AR) are established to collect the expert demonstration data for improving efficiency. In such a system, we present a novel method to address the general manipulation task problem. Specifically, the proposed method consists of two phases: i) In the first phase for pretraining, the policy is created in a behavior cloning (BC) manner, through leveraging the learning data from our AR-based remote human-robot interaction system; ii) In the second phase, a contrastive learning empowered reinforcement learning (RL) method is developed to obtain more efficient and robust policy than the BC, and thus a projection head is designed to accelerate the learning progress. An event-driven augmented reward is adopted for enhancing the safety. To validate the proposed method, both the physics simulations via PyBullet and real-world experiments are carried out. The results demonstrate that compared to the baselines, our method not only significantly speeds up the training process, but also achieves much better performance in terms of the success rate for fulfilling the manipulation tasks. By conducting the ablation study, it is confirmed that the proposed RL with contrastive learning overcomes policy collapse. Supplementary demonstrations are available at https://cyberyyc.github.io/.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

TorchKM: A GPU-Oriented Library for Kernel Learning and Model Selection

TorchKM is an open-source library for kernel machines, including support vector machines, kernel logistic regression, and kernel quantile regression, with GPU acceleration. The library features a scikit-learn-style API and is designed to exploit GPU-friendly linear algebra, accelerating the full training and model-selection pipeline through intelligent reuse of matrix operations. Benchmarks show competitive predictive performance with substantial speedups over standard baselines. The efficiency and programmable design also make TorchKM a kernel-learning component for AI-driven workflows. Code and documentation are available at https://github.com/YikaiZhang95/torchkm, and the package can be easily installed via PyPI.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

AgentDS Technical Report: Benchmarking the Future of Human-AI Collaboration in Domain-Specific Data Science

Data science plays a critical role in transforming complex data into actionable insights across numerous domains. Recent developments in large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence (AI) agents have significantly automated data science workflow. However, it remains unclear to what extent AI agents can match the performance of human experts on domain-specific data science tasks, and in which aspects human expertise continues to provide advantages. We introduce AgentDS, a benchmark and competition designed to evaluate both AI agents and human-AI collaboration performance in domain-specific data science. AgentDS consists of 17 challenges across six industries: commerce, food production, healthcare, insurance, manufacturing, and retail banking. We conducted an open competition involving 29 teams and 80 participants, enabling systematic comparison between human-AI collaborative approaches and AI-only baselines. Our results show that current AI agents struggle with domain-specific reasoning. AI-only baselines perform below the top quartile of competition participants, while the strongest solutions arise from human-AI collaboration. These findings challenge the narrative of complete automation by AI and underscore the enduring importance of human expertise in data science, while illuminating directions for the next generation of AI. Visit the AgentDS website here: https://agentds.org/ and open source datasets here: https://huggingface.co/datasets/lainmn/AgentDS .

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Accurate Large-sample Uncertainty Quantification using Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Tuning algorithms such as stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) for approximate sampling and uncertainty quantification remains challenging, particularly in the practically relevant settings when the batch size is large or the model is misspecified. Existing theory that provides tuning guidance relies on continuous-time limits or strong statistical assumptions, which can become quantitatively inaccurate in these regimes. We address these shortcomings by proposing new discrete-time approximations to SG(L)D with and without momentum, which enables accurate predictions of the stationary covariance, iterate average covariance, and integrated autocorrelation time. Moreover, we prove quantitative, non-asymptotic error bounds showing that these estimates are sufficiently accurate for practical tuning and uncertainty quantification. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our theory yields improved tuning guidance across a range of models and data-generating distributions where existing approaches fail, including when using the $β$-divergence rather than log-loss to obtain statistically robust inferences.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Ice Cream Doesn't Cause Drowning: Benchmarking LLMs Against Statistical Pitfalls in Causal Inference

Reliable causal inference is essential for making decisions in high-stakes areas like medicine, economics, and public policy. However, it remains unclear whether large language models (LLMs) can handle rigorous and trustworthy statistical causal inference. Current benchmarks usually involve simplified tasks. For example, these tasks might only ask LLMs to identify semantic causal relationships or draw conclusions directly from raw data. As a result, models may overlook important statistical pitfalls, such as Simpson's paradox or selection bias. This oversight limits the applicability of LLMs in the real world. To address these limitations, we propose CausalPitfalls, a comprehensive benchmark designed to rigorously evaluate the capability of LLMs in overcoming common causal inference pitfalls. Our benchmark features structured challenges across multiple difficulty levels, each paired with grading rubrics. This approach allows us to quantitatively measure both causal reasoning capabilities and the reliability of LLMs' responses. We evaluate models using two protocols: (1) direct prompting, which assesses intrinsic causal reasoning, and (2) code-assisted prompting, where models generate executable code for explicit statistical analysis. Additionally, we validate the effectiveness of this judge by comparing its scoring with assessments from human experts. Our results reveal significant limitations in current LLMs when performing statistical causal inference. The CausalPitfalls benchmark provides essential guidance and quantitative metrics to advance the development of trustworthy causal reasoning systems.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

TopoDIM: One-shot Topology Generation of Diverse Interaction Modes for Multi-Agent Systems

Optimizing communication topology in LLM-based multi-agent system is critical for enabling collective intelligence. Existing methods mainly rely on spatio-temporal interaction paradigms, where the sequential execution of multi-round dialogues incurs high latency and computation. Motivated by the recent insights that evaluation and debate mechanisms can improve problem-solving in multi-agent systems, we propose TopoDIM, a framework for one-shot Topology generation with Diverse Interaction Modes. Designed for decentralized execution to enhance adaptability and privacy, TopoDIM enables agents to autonomously construct heterogeneous communication without iterative coordination, achieving token efficiency and improved task performance. Experiments demonstrate that TopoDIM reduces total token consumption by 46.41% while improving average performance by 1.50% over state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the framework exhibits strong adaptability in organizing communication among heterogeneous agents. Code is available at: https://github.com/Sundiasy/TopoDIM.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2026

EvoNash-MARL: A Closed-Loop Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Framework for Medium-Horizon Equity Allocation

Medium- to long-horizon equity allocation is challenging due to weak predictive structure, non-stationary market regimes, and the degradation of signals under realistic trading constraints. Conventional approaches often rely on single predictors or loosely coupled pipelines, which limit robustness under distributional shift. This paper proposes EvoNash-MARL, a closed-loop framework that integrates reinforcement learning with population-based policy optimization and execution-aware selection to improve robustness in medium- to long-horizon allocation. The framework combines multi-agent policy populations, game-theoretic aggregation, and constraint-aware validation within a unified walk-forward design. Under a 120-window walk-forward protocol, the final configuration achieves the highest robust score among internal baselines. On out-of-sample data from 2014 to 2024, it delivers a 19.6% annualized return, compared to 11.7% for SPY, and remains stable under extended evaluation through 2026. While the framework demonstrates consistent performance under realistic constraints and across market settings, strong global statistical significance is not established under White's Reality Check (WRC) and SPA-lite tests. The results therefore provide evidence of improved robustness rather than definitive proof of superior market timing performance.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

ADD for Multi-Bit Image Watermarking

As generative models enable rapid creation of high-fidelity images, societal concerns about misinformation and authenticity have intensified. A promising remedy is multi-bit image watermarking, which embeds a multi-bit message into an image so that a verifier can later detect whether the image is generated by someone and further identify the source by decoding the embedded message. Existing approaches often fall short in capacity, resilience to common image distortions, and theoretical justification. To address these limitations, we propose ADD (Add, Dot, Decode), a multi-bit image watermarking method with two stages: learning a watermark to be linearly combined with the multi-bit message and added to the image, and decoding through inner products between the watermarked image and the learned watermark. On the standard MS-COCO benchmark, we demonstrate that for the challenging task of 48-bit watermarking, ADD achieves 100\% decoding accuracy, with performance dropping by at most 2\% under a wide range of image distortions, substantially smaller than the 14\% average drop of state-of-the-art methods. In addition, ADD achieves substantial computational gains, with 2-fold faster embedding and 7.4-fold faster decoding than the fastest existing method. We further provide a theoretical analysis explaining why the learned watermark and the corresponding decoding rule are effective.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Model Privacy: A Unified Framework for Understanding Model Stealing Attacks and Defenses

The use of machine learning (ML) has become increasingly prevalent in various domains, highlighting the importance of understanding and ensuring its safety. One pressing concern is the vulnerability of ML applications to model stealing attacks. These attacks involve adversaries attempting to recover a learned model through limited query-response interactions, such as those found in cloud-based services or on-chip artificial intelligence interfaces. While existing literature proposes various attack and defense strategies, these often lack a theoretical foundation and standardized evaluation criteria. In response, this work presents a framework called ``Model Privacy'', providing a foundation for comprehensively analyzing model stealing attacks and defenses. We establish a rigorous formulation for the threat model and objectives, propose methods to quantify the goodness of attack and defense strategies, and analyze the fundamental tradeoffs between utility and privacy in ML models. Our developed theory offers valuable insights into enhancing the security of ML models, especially highlighting the importance of the attack-specific structure of perturbations for effective defenses. We demonstrate the application of model privacy from the defender's perspective through various learning scenarios. Extensive experiments corroborate the insights and the effectiveness of defense mechanisms developed under the proposed framework.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

GRAB: An LLM-Inspired Sequence-First Click-Through Rate Prediction Modeling Paradigm

Traditional Deep Learning Recommendation Models (DLRMs) face increasing bottlenecks in performance and efficiency, often struggling with generalization and long-sequence modeling. Inspired by the scaling success of Large Language Models (LLMs), we propose Generative Ranking for Ads at Baidu (GRAB), an end-to-end generative framework for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. GRAB integrates a novel Causal Action-aware Multi-channel Attention (CamA) mechanism to effectively capture temporal dynamics and specific action signals within user behavior sequences. Full-scale online deployment demonstrates that GRAB significantly outperforms established DLRMs, delivering a 3.05% increase in revenue and a 3.49% rise in CTR. Furthermore, the model demonstrates desirable scaling behavior: its expressive power shows a monotonic and approximately linear improvement as longer interaction sequences are utilized.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2025

Can Agentic AI Match the Performance of Human Data Scientists?

Data science plays a critical role in transforming complex data into actionable insights across numerous domains. Recent developments in large language models (LLMs) have significantly automated data science workflows, but a fundamental question persists: Can these agentic AI systems truly match the performance of human data scientists who routinely leverage domain-specific knowledge? We explore this question by designing a prediction task where a crucial latent variable is hidden in relevant image data instead of tabular features. As a result, agentic AI that generates generic codes for modeling tabular data cannot perform well, while human experts could identify the important hidden variable using domain knowledge. We demonstrate this idea with a synthetic dataset for property insurance. Our experiments show that agentic AI that relies on generic analytics workflow falls short of methods that use domain-specific insights. This highlights a key limitation of the current agentic AI for data science and underscores the need for future research to develop agentic AI systems that can better recognize and incorporate domain knowledge.

cs.LG↗