arXiv subjects

Jihoon Kwon

Publications and source records attributed to Jihoon Kwon.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Making Alternative Data Work: Context-Augmented LLMs for Financial Forecasting

When forecasting a firm's future financial performance, alternative data - data collected from non-traditional sources such as consumer transactions, web traffic, and prediction markets - can provide timely signals about firms' operating activities and broader market conditions. These signals may reveal information that is not captured by traditional public sources and can therefore provide complementary information for forecasting firms' future financial performance. However, firm-level alternative data often have limited historical coverage, are relevant only to specific prediction targets or subsets of firms, and are distributed across numerous heterogeneous channels, making them difficult to incorporate flexibly into conventional forecasting approaches. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) can interpret instructions, learn from in-context examples, and generate predictions by combining heterogeneous information without task-specific parameter updates. Motivated by this potential flexibility, we investigate whether an LLM can forecast firm performance by integrating alternative data with other financial information through in-context learning. We propose a two-agent framework that first identifies the firms for which each alternative data channel is likely to be informative and then predicts revenue using firm- and channel-specific context. We evaluate the framework across four commercial alternative data channels. In our experiments, adding alternative data in context alongside other financial information improves the LLM's forecasting relative to either source alone, and these forecasts are more accurate than those of standard forecasting baselines. These findings suggest that LLMs provide a flexible and practical approach to integrating alternative data with heterogeneous financial information.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Same Concept, Different Directions: Cross-Modal Feature Heterogeneity in Sparse Autoencoders

Vision-language models map images and text into a joint embedding space. However, these embeddings often entangle multiple semantic features, which limits their interpretability and controllability. While sparse autoencoders have emerged as a useful tool for decomposing these embeddings into monosemantic features, their application to joint embedding spaces has largely relied on an implicit, untested assumption that semantically corresponding features share the same directions across modalities. In this paper, we challenge this assumption by identifying discrepancies in feature directions for the same concept across image and text modalities, a phenomenon we term cross-modal feature heterogeneity. We demonstrate that this heterogeneity is a key driver of the modality split, where a shared concept activates different latents depending on the modality. This finding further reveals why aligning latent activations alone is insufficient to resolve the underlying feature mismatch. Motivated by this observation, we propose an approach that trains modality-specific sparse autoencoders to preserve each modality's feature geometry, and then aligns corresponding features post hoc. Our method improves reconstruction fidelity and enhances performance in cross-modal retrieval and concept steering.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Distributional Alignment as a Criterion for Designing Task Vectors in In-Context Learning

In-context learning (ICL) allows large language models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks through demonstrations, yet it suffers from escalating inference costs as context length increases. While task vectors offer a promising alternative by compressing demonstrations into compact hidden-state representations, their quality has been evaluated only through downstream task accuracy. This indirect criterion provides limited insight into how to design more effective task vector extraction methods. In this paper, we posit that inference using task vectors should align their predictive distribution with that of ICL. To quantify this, we introduce $d_{\text{NTP}}$, a metric that measures the discrepancy in next-token probabilities between task vector-based and ICL-based inference. Our empirical analysis reveals that $d_{\text{NTP}}$ serves as a performance proxy, exhibiting a strong negative correlation with downstream accuracy. Motivated by this, we develop Linear Task Vector (LTV), a method designed to minimize $d_{\text{NTP}}$ via a closed-form linear mapping that estimates demonstration effects through regression. Across eight classification benchmarks and five LLMs, LTV consistently outperforms existing task vector baselines, improving average accuracy by 9.2\% while reducing inference latency. We further show that LTV outperforms the baselines on regression tasks. Moreover, we investigate the transferability of LTV across different model scales; an aspect that has remained nascent in task vector research. Specifically, we empirically show that task vectors from a larger model can enhance a smaller model's performance by 6.4\%, suggesting a new utility for extracted task representations.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Cross-Sectional Asset Retrieval via Future-Aligned Soft Contrastive Learning

Asset retrieval--finding similar assets in a financial universe--is central to quantitative investment decision-making. Existing approaches define similarity through historical price patterns or sector classifications, but such backward-looking criteria provide no guarantee about future behavior. We argue that effective asset retrieval should be future-aligned: the retrieved assets should be those most likely to exhibit correlated future returns. To this end, we propose Future-Aligned Soft Contrastive Learning (FASCL), a representation learning framework whose soft contrastive loss uses pairwise future return correlations as continuous supervision targets. We further introduce an evaluation protocol designed to directly assess whether retrieved assets share similar future trajectories. Experiments on 4,229 US equities demonstrate that FASCL consistently outperforms 13 baselines across all future-behavior metrics. The source code will be available soon.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

LLM as a Risk Manager: LLM Semantic Filtering for Lead-Lag Trading in Prediction Markets

Prediction markets provide a unique setting where event-level time series are directly tied to natural-language descriptions, yet discovering robust lead-lag relationships remains challenging due to spurious statistical correlations. We propose a hybrid two-stage causal screener to address this challenge: (i) a statistical stage that uses Granger causality to identify candidate leader-follower pairs from market-implied probability time series, and (ii) an LLM-based semantic stage that re-ranks these candidates by assessing whether the proposed direction admits a plausible economic transmission mechanism based on event descriptions. Because causal ground truth is unobserved, we evaluate the ranked pairs using a fixed, signal-triggered trading protocol that maps relationship quality into realized profit and loss (PnL). On Kalshi Economics markets, our hybrid approach consistently outperforms the statistical baseline. Across rolling evaluations, the win rate increases from 51.4% to 54.5%. Crucially, the average magnitude of losing trades decreases substantially from 649 USD to 347 USD. This reduction is driven by the LLM's ability to filter out statistically fragile links that are prone to large losses, rather than relying on rare gains. These improvements remain stable across different trading configurations, indicating that the gains are not driven by specific parameter choices. Overall, the results suggest that LLMs function as semantic risk managers on top of statistical discovery, prioritizing lead-lag relationships that generalize under changing market conditions.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2026

Forecasting Future Language: Context Design for Mention Markets

Mention markets, a type of prediction market in which contracts resolve based on whether a specified keyword is mentioned during a future public event, require accurate probabilistic forecasts of keyword-mention outcomes. While recent work shows that large language models (LLMs) can generate forecasts competitive with human forecasters, it remains unclear how input context should be designed to support accurate prediction. In this paper, we study this question through experiments on earnings-call mention markets, which require forecasting whether a company will mention a specified keyword during its upcoming call. We run controlled comparisons varying (i) which contextual information is provided (news and/or prior earnings-call transcripts) and (ii) how \textit{market probability}, (i.e., prediction market contract price) is used. We introduce Market-Conditioned Prompting (MCP), which explicitly treats the market-implied probability as a prior and instructs the LLM to update this prior using textual evidence, rather than re-predicting the base rate from scratch. In our experiments, we find three insights: (1) richer context consistently improves forecasting performance; (2) market-conditioned prompting (MCP), which treats the market probability as a prior and updates it using textual evidence, yields better-calibrated forecasts; and (3) a mixture of the market probability and MCP (MixMCP) outperforms the market baseline. By dampening the LLM's posterior update with the market prior, MixMCP yields more robust predictions than either the market or the LLM alone.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2025

Enhancing Compositional Reasoning in CLIP via Reconstruction and Alignment of Text Descriptions

Despite recent advances, vision-language models trained with standard contrastive objectives still struggle with compositional reasoning -- the ability to understand structured relationships between visual and linguistic elements. This shortcoming is largely due to the tendency of the text encoder to focus on individual words rather than their relations, a limitation reinforced by contrastive training that primarily aligns words with visual objects. In this paper, we introduce REconstruction and Alignment of text Descriptions (READ), a fine-tuning method designed to enhance compositional reasoning by adding two auxiliary objectives to the contrastive learning: (1) a token-level reconstruction objective, where a frozen pre-trained decoder reconstructs alternative captions based on the embedding of the original caption; and (2) a sentence-level alignment objective, which explicitly aligns paraphrased sentences in the embedding space. We show that READ-CLIP, a model derived by applying the READ method to the pre-trained CLIP model, achieves the state-of-the-art performance across five major compositional reasoning benchmarks, outperforming the strongest conventional fine-tuning baseline by up to 4.1%. Furthermore, applying the READ to existing CLIP variants (including NegCLIP and FSC-CLIP) also improves performance on these benchmarks. Quantitative and qualitative analyses reveal that our proposed objectives -- reconstruction and alignment -- offer complementary benefits: the former encourages the encoder to capture relationships between words within a caption, while the latter ensures consistent representations for paraphrases expressed with different wording.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

From Text to Alpha: Can LLMs Track Evolving Signals in Corporate Disclosures?

Natural language processing (NLP) has been widely used in quantitative finance, but traditional methods often struggle to capture rich narratives in corporate disclosures, leaving potentially informative signals under-explored. Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising alternative due to their ability to extract nuanced semantics. In this paper, we ask whether semantic signals extracted by LLMs from corporate disclosures predict alpha, defined as abnormal returns beyond broad market movements and common risk factors. We introduce a simple framework, LLM as extractor, embedding as ruler, which extracts context-aware, metric-focused textual spans and quantifies semantic changes across consecutive disclosure periods using embedding-based similarity. This allows us to measure the degree of metric shifting -- how much firms move away from previously emphasized metrics, referred as moving targets. In experiments with portfolio and cross-sectional regression tests against a recent NER-based baseline, our method achieves more than twice the risk-adjusted alpha and shows significantly stronger predictive power. Qualitative analysis suggests that these gains stem from preserving contextual qualifiers and filtering out non-metric terms that keyword-based approaches often miss.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

FinAgentBench: A Benchmark Dataset for Agentic Retrieval in Financial Question Answering

Accurate information retrieval (IR) is critical in the financial domain, where investors must identify relevant information from large collections of documents. Traditional IR methods -- whether sparse or dense -- often fall short in retrieval accuracy, as it requires not only capturing semantic similarity but also performing fine-grained reasoning over document structure and domain-specific knowledge. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have opened up new opportunities for retrieval with multi-step reasoning, where the model ranks passages through iterative reasoning about which information is most relevant to a given query. However, there exists no benchmark to evaluate such capabilities in the financial domain. To address this gap, we introduce FinAgentBench, the first large-scale benchmark for evaluating retrieval with multi-step reasoning in finance -- a setting we term agentic retrieval. The benchmark consists of 26K expert-annotated examples on S&P-500 listed firms and assesses whether LLM agents can (1) identify the most relevant document type among candidates, and (2) pinpoint the key passage within the selected document. Our evaluation framework explicitly separates these two reasoning steps to address context limitations. This design enables to provide a quantitative basis for understanding retrieval-centric LLM behavior in finance. We evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art models and further demonstrated how targeted fine-tuning can significantly improve agentic retrieval performance. Our benchmark provides a foundation for studying retrieval-centric LLM behavior in complex, domain-specific tasks for finance.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

Structuring the Unstructured: A Multi-Agent System for Extracting and Querying Financial KPIs and Guidance

Extracting structured and quantitative insights from unstructured financial filings is essential in investment research, yet remains time-consuming and resource-intensive. Conventional approaches in practice rely heavily on labor-intensive manual processes, limiting scalability and delaying the research workflow. In this paper, we propose an efficient and scalable method for accurately extracting quantitative insights from unstructured financial documents, leveraging a multi-agent system composed of large language models. Our proposed multi-agent system consists of two specialized agents: the \emph{Extraction Agent} and the \emph{Text-to-SQL Agent}. The \textit{Extraction Agent} automatically identifies key performance indicators from unstructured financial text, standardizes their formats, and verifies their accuracy. On the other hand, the \textit{Text-to-SQL Agent} generates executable SQL statements from natural language queries, allowing users to access structured data accurately without requiring familiarity with the database schema. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed system effectively transforms unstructured text into structured data accurately and enables precise retrieval of key information. First, we demonstrate that our system achieves approximately 95\% accuracy in transforming financial filings into structured data, matching the performance level typically attained by human annotators. Second, in a human evaluation of the retrieval task -- where natural language queries are used to search information from structured data -- 91\% of the responses were rated as correct by human evaluators. In both evaluations, our system generalizes well across financial document types, consistently delivering reliable performance.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

FinDER: Financial Dataset for Question Answering and Evaluating Retrieval-Augmented Generation

In the fast-paced financial domain, accurate and up-to-date information is critical to addressing ever-evolving market conditions. Retrieving this information correctly is essential in financial Question-Answering (QA), since many language models struggle with factual accuracy in this domain. We present FinDER, an expert-generated dataset tailored for Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) in finance. Unlike existing QA datasets that provide predefined contexts and rely on relatively clear and straightforward queries, FinDER focuses on annotating search-relevant evidence by domain experts, offering 5,703 query-evidence-answer triplets derived from real-world financial inquiries. These queries frequently include abbreviations, acronyms, and concise expressions, capturing the brevity and ambiguity common in the realistic search behavior of professionals. By challenging models to retrieve relevant information from large corpora rather than relying on readily determined contexts, FinDER offers a more realistic benchmark for evaluating RAG systems. We further present a comprehensive evaluation of multiple state-of-the-art retrieval models and Large Language Models, showcasing challenges derived from a realistic benchmark to drive future research on truthful and precise RAG in the financial domain.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

Bridging Language Models and Financial Analysis

The rapid advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have unlocked transformative possibilities in natural language processing, particularly within the financial sector. Financial data is often embedded in intricate relationships across textual content, numerical tables, and visual charts, posing challenges that traditional methods struggle to address effectively. However, the emergence of LLMs offers new pathways for processing and analyzing this multifaceted data with increased efficiency and insight. Despite the fast pace of innovation in LLM research, there remains a significant gap in their practical adoption within the finance industry, where cautious integration and long-term validation are prioritized. This disparity has led to a slower implementation of emerging LLM techniques, despite their immense potential in financial applications. As a result, many of the latest advancements in LLM technology remain underexplored or not fully utilized in this domain. This survey seeks to bridge this gap by providing a comprehensive overview of recent developments in LLM research and examining their applicability to the financial sector. Building on previous survey literature, we highlight several novel LLM methodologies, exploring their distinctive capabilities and their potential relevance to financial data analysis. By synthesizing insights from a broad range of studies, this paper aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners, offering direction on promising research avenues and outlining future opportunities for advancing LLM applications in finance.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2024

Linq-Embed-Mistral Technical Report

This report explores the enhancement of text retrieval performance using advanced data refinement techniques. We develop Linq-Embed-Mistral\footnote{\url{https://huggingface.co/Linq-AI-Research/Linq-Embed-Mistral}} by building on the E5-mistral and Mistral-7B-v0.1 models, focusing on sophisticated data crafting, data filtering, and negative mining methods, which are highly tailored to each task, applied to both existing benchmark dataset and highly tailored synthetic dataset generated via large language models (LLMs). Linq-Embed-Mistral excels in the MTEB benchmarks (as of May 29, 2024), achieving an average score of 68.2 across 56 datasets, and ranks 1st among all models for retrieval tasks on the MTEB leaderboard with a performance score of 60.2. This performance underscores its superior capability in enhancing search precision and reliability. Our contributions include advanced data refinement methods that significantly improve model performance on benchmark and synthetic datasets, techniques for homogeneous task ordering and mixed task fine-tuning to enhance model generalization and stability, and a streamlined evaluation process using 4-bit precision and a light retrieval evaluation set, which accelerates validation without sacrificing accuracy.

cs.CL↗